Talking Stocks 2.0

[scarlet knight]

More shoes to fall as Fed’s recent interest rate increase will filter through the system, knock off a few banks. When a bank’s stock falls, depositors flee, more stock fall, rinse and repeat.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

More shoes to fall as Fed’s recent interest rate increase will filter through the system, knock off a few banks. When a bank’s stock falls, depositors flee, more stock fall, rinse and repeat.

I think western alliance and Pacwest were probably the 2 largest market movers today. My post certainly didn't age well

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

More shoes to fall as Fed’s recent interest rate increase will filter through the system, knock off a few banks. When a bank’s stock falls, depositors flee, more stock fall, rinse and repeat.

apple laughing all the way to the bank here. will be interesting to see how many people ran to their savings account, their timing couldn't have been any better. Tim's a genius, one of the best CEOs ever imo

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by huncho

apple laughing all the way to the bank here. will be interesting to see how many people ran to their savings account, their timing couldn't have been any better. Tim's a genius, one of the best CEOs ever imo

I am a big buy and hold Apple owner.

[scarlet knight]

I bought a smidgen of Truist and WBD today. I heard Oakmark’s Nygren discuss that Truist owns a very profitable insurance brokerage. If a lot of regionals go under or have to merge, I think Truist is one of the better ones. A merger of SunTrust and BB&T.

For WBD, I bought a falling knife. They have a great library. Lot of hits on HBO. I think at some point, Disney, Apple or Netflix buys them out.

[macrowatch]

Hoping more onto the Japanese stock bandwagon. Liking the exposure to the currency as well. Thesis is simply if they do more stock buy backs too get more stocks to book value, then I'm happy with the outcome. Well actually two reasons, hopefully the Buffet put plus the JCB put beneath the market will prop everything up.

[Romeojk]

Anybody still in NVDA?

I was going to post about it a week or so ago as the P/E ratio was up about 170 and I was going to get out. But I get a bit sentimental because it's been treating me so well over the past couple of years. And today it had a great day today and the P/E is now at 200. I'm still in but not ecstatic that it is now over 10% of my holdings, where I try to be around 5%.

I'd love to hear others thought on it.

Also, any AUPH holders still out there? I wish you luck if you are. I got out last month and moved into some banks and feel much better about my portfolio.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Olive Drab]

I sold NVDA yesterday after buying in early May. I almost sold before earnings, but figured the risk was worth the reward. I kept my shares of SOXL as I think the sector still has some short term runnings ahead from the NVDA positive momentum.

[-dustin]

cashed out my MRVL holdings at $63. Been a minute since I've had a pop like that.

[scarlet knight]

Lots of winners, as we saw this week. Not a straight ride up. But should be a big ride up.

[ButtButt]

I did pretty well this week, time for a small celebration. Cashed out most of my NVDA that I've had since my college days 20+ years ago and have been steadily adding over the years. The valuation seems to have gotten crazy and I'm not completely sold on AI (will probably regret this a few years later). But I feel like it's never wrong to take profit.

Also sold off some AMD that I bought when tech semi-crashed at the end of last year.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Also, any AUPH holders still out there? I wish you luck if you are. I got out last month and moved into some banks and feel much better about my portfolio.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Still 2 feet in. Been writing monthly covered calls, 30% OTM at 95-100% IV, brought my cost basis from Dec at ~4.50 to nearly zero. Scripts NRx/TRx continue to improve, patent lawsuit settled, biopsy data looks great, Japan approval imminent and stronger patents to 2037 secured. Beat top and bottom last quarter while raising guidance 20% along with announcing a new spokesperson partnership. Nice 119% run ytd, no complaints. My SPY puts on the other hand are quite impaired, been DCAing there and into QQQ puts, still believe we are WAY overvalued and not sustainable at current index levels.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by ButtButt

I did pretty well this week, time for a small celebration. Cashed out most of my NVDA that I've had since my college days 20+ years ago and have been steadily adding over the years. The valuation seems to have gotten crazy and I'm not completely sold on AI (will probably regret this a few years later). But I feel like it's never wrong to take profit.

Also sold off some AMD that I bought when tech semi-crashed at the end of last year.

Tell me you've had a 100 bagger without telling me you've had a 100 bagger?! :)

Congrats on an awesome investment no doubt! I've considered being involved maybe half a dozen times and passed each time. :(

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[ButtButt]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Tell me you've had a 100 bagger without telling me you've had a 100 bagger?! :)

Congrats on an awesome investment no doubt! I've considered being involved maybe half a dozen times and passed each time. :(

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Thank you... just glad I got into tech all those years ago and not something else, I feel incredibly fortunate!

[austinp]

Originally Posted by ButtButt

I did pretty well this week, time for a small celebration. Cashed out most of my NVDA that I've had since my college days 20+ years ago and have been steadily adding over the years. The valuation seems to have gotten crazy and I'm not completely sold on AI (will probably regret this a few years later). But I feel like it's never wrong to take profit.

Also sold off some AMD that I bought when tech semi-crashed at the end of last year.

Congrats! That’s awesome. I’ve bought NVDA a couple times over the years. Took out my initial investment a while back but the rest is a long term hold for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ButtButt]

Originally Posted by austinp

Congrats! That’s awesome. I’ve bought NVDA a couple times over the years. Took out my initial investment a while back but the rest is a long term hold for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks! I think a lot of it for me was just pure luck. I'm sure your holdings are doing well too.

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Still 2 feet in. Been writing monthly covered calls, 30% OTM at 95-100% IV, brought my cost basis from Dec at ~4.50 to nearly zero. Scripts NRx/TRx continue to improve, patent lawsuit settled, biopsy data looks great, Japan approval imminent and stronger patents to 2037 secured. Beat top and bottom last quarter while raising guidance 20% along with announcing a new spokesperson partnership. Nice 119% run ytd, no complaints. My SPY puts on the other hand are quite impaired, been DCAing there and into QQQ puts, still believe we are WAY overvalued and not sustainable at current index levels.

I'm glad you're still in and really hope it gets to mid-20's or so.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Olive Drab]

Originally Posted by Olive Drab

I sold NVDA yesterday after buying in early May. I almost sold before earnings, but figured the risk was worth the reward. I kept my shares of SOXL as I think the sector still has some short term runnings ahead from the NVDA positive momentum.

My stop tripped this morning, so I am out of these semis for the time being.

[cv5]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

I'm a buy and holder so I am looking out years and not concerned about the near term or even the next couple of years. I am being patient so no large moves at this time but I plan to continue buying on the way down and then hold on for the ride.

Sounds like a good plan worthy of emulation

[glenn_herwig]

This post is for information only.

If I had to deploy capital today. I would park 60% of portfolio into 5% Yield Money Market.

The rest as follows:

Short AAPL
Short NVDA
Short DB
Long SLV
Long FXF
Long WEAT

Keep 10% to 15% trailing stop on all of them.

I am no genius but this is how I would play the current environment.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

This post is for information only.

If I had to deploy capital today. I would park 60% of portfolio into 5% Yield Money Market.

The rest as follows:

Short AAPL
Short NVDA
Short DB
Long SLV
Long FXF
Long WEAT

Keep 10% to 15% trailing stop on all of them.

I am no genius but this is how I would play the current environment.

I’m curious, are you buying puts on AAPL NVDA And DB


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Anybody still in NVDA?

I was going to post about it a week or so ago as the P/E ratio was up about 170 and I was going to get out. But I get a bit sentimental because it's been treating me so well over the past couple of years. And today it had a great day today and the P/E is now at 200. I'm still in but not ecstatic that it is now over 10% of my holdings, where I try to be around 5%.

I'd love to hear others thought on it.

Also, any AUPH holders still out there? I wish you luck if you are. I got out last month and moved into some banks and feel much better about my portfolio.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, and I bought some more too recently as a contrarian. With them it’s all about momentum and imo they don’t have any true competitors with artificial intelligence applications. Nothing anyone else makes out there is within even a few generations of the Hopper H100 stations.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

apple laughing all the way to the bank here. will be interesting to see how many people ran to their savings account, their timing couldn't have been any better. Tim's a genius, one of the best CEOs ever imo

Hope you bought some of that NVIDIA last fall when we were talking about the Ada Lovelace launch here. Would’ve made a lot of money. I’m still buying it and also picking up Intel. Their future nodes from their fab sites seem to be performing well and even being considered by Jensen for the successor to 2024’s Blackwell chips.

I think Apple will have some transition issues if they move out of TSMC in Taiwan. They’re positioned worse than others and as far as I know haven’t explored Samsung and Intel foundry options as contingency plans.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Hope you bought some of that NVIDIA last fall when we were talking about the Ada Lovelace launch here. Would’ve made a lot of money. I’m still buying it and also picking up Intel. Their future nodes from their fab sites seem to be performing well and even being considered by Jensen for the successor to 2024’s Blackwell chips.

I think Apple will have some transition issues if they move out of TSMC in Taiwan. They’re positioned worse than others and as far as I know haven’t explored Samsung and Intel foundry options as contingency plans.

sadly i didn't, i chickened out lol. realistically i can't imagine i would've held it long either. for the most part i haven't even held anything longer than a week during this entire rally because it feels like you can't trust it but here we are...

need to get into intel though

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

sadly i didn't, i chickened out lol. realistically i can't imagine i would've held it long either. for the most part i haven't even held anything longer than a week during this entire rally because it feels like you can't trust it but here we are...

need to get into intel though

I bought NVIDIA and Intel and both have done very well for me. The other one in the space we were talking about last Summer/Fall as a good value was AMD. Kicking myself for not making a move on that one.

[7sins]

Interesting chart here, extreme greed is nearing all time highs with index levels overvalued at 52 week highs, QQQ RSI 90+. Companies are no longer able to pass along higher prices, unit volumes are falling and earnings expectations will miss into the future - SPY earnings at $240 next year, that is absurd.

I've liquidated all my positions ex my small cap bios, loading into a 5 year treasury and then the proceeds into QQQ puts Jan 2025 strike 380 where IV is only 15%. That is a 525 day runway with a b/e of only a 10% move down on a very overvalued market, laddering those with OTM 2025 QQQ puts. Will put the remaining 50% DCA the next month before the following fed meeting in July. Fed pausing at 5% will eventually break the economy, Citadel the largest market maker is doing the same except going short on HY credit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-us-recession

Just my .02, not financial advice, you should probably do the opposite of whatever my strategy is at this point. Typically not a bear, but been bearish for awhile now and now this is the biggest bearish position i've had since 2013. That or next thread I start is, sold all my watches to pay margin calls

[SDGT3]

Interesting chart. Analysts are certainly all over the place with projections on the S&P anywhere from 3900 to 5000 with earnings as high as 242 for 2024. The Fed will speak in about 1/2 hour and have no doubt they will not raise, but actually talk tough, signaling a skip. We won’t know for a couple months, but I believe they’ve raised for the last time in this cycle.

[FLGatorM5]

This price action is downright silly.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by FLGatorM5

This price action is downright silly.

maybe I am crazy, but I still think the bottom is going to fall out.

nothing makes sense here.

[SDGT3]

I love B's graph as it is historical data and am nervous this "irrational exuberance" cannot go on as it has. The only variable not in the graph is that represented is QE. Everything in there was before the QE era of the Fed.