Talking Stocks 2.0

[FLGatorM5]

Intraday price action looks miserable. Open up, rallies hard to resistance and then sells off. I don’t think the daily close is telling the whole story.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by FLGatorM5

Intraday price action looks miserable. Open up, rallies hard to resistance and then sells off. I don’t think the daily close is telling the whole story.

yeah price action is pretty depressing and was miserable even in june/july when we were going up aggressively, just at that time the large swings were bought up. i imagine it's due to the fact that it's now an options market and the big boys are just trading 6-7 figures of short term options which just causes huge swings. 0dtes are traded in ridiculous sums too. pretty sure anyone who bought last summer is break even unless its nvidia so it's just not been a great 2 years unless you wanna kill your mental health day trading

then you have btc/eth which are up like 80% ytd but have only actually made that 80% worth of moves during like 8 or 9 days out of the 8 months so far lol, and that's a 24/7 market which makes it even sadder

[enjoythemusic]

Back in Nov 2022 i mentioned investing in Saudi Aramco (and we are going to be entering into the winter season).

Posted recently:

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[Kowaco]

Money Market up to 5.27%

[pk552502]

Today I moved a little bit of money into bond index funds. The rate is less than a money market due to inversion, but the rate is locked in for a bond fund which is why I did it.

I also bought some hecla mining shares today. They were down 10% and it never hurts to have money in gold and silver. I'm expecting a market correction in the coming months.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by pk552502

Today I moved a little bit of money into bond index funds. The rate is less than a money market due to inversion, but the rate is locked in for a bond fund which is why I did it.

I also bought some hecla mining shares today. They were down 10% and it never hurts to have money in gold and silver. I'm expecting a market correction in the coming months.

It varies. Generally speaking.

[Olive Drab]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Money Market up to 5.27%

Which brokerage/bank?

[honuswagner13]

Originally Posted by Olive Drab

Which brokerage/bank?

I think he may be referring to VMFXX

[austinp]

Let’s go NVDA!


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[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by austinp

Let’s go NVDA!


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Hope I get out in time.

[SDGT3]

TBills yields are now higher than the earnings yield on the S&P 500, which is relatively rare. When it has occurred, the equities markets has tended to fall into fairly serious correction or bear markets. Timing is hard to predict as however, but just pointing out a material inflection point.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

TBills yields are now higher than the earnings yield on the S&P 500, which is relatively rare. When it has occurred, the equities markets has tended to fall into fairly serious correction or bear markets. Timing is hard to predict as however, but just pointing out a material inflection point.

And interest on US Treasuries is free of state income tax, so if you live in a high tax state, the real yield is even higher.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

I think he may be referring to VMFXX

Yes VMFXX is what I’m referring to


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[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by austinp

Let’s go NVDA!


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NVDA is looking a lot like Tesla did 1 year or so ago,high market cap, and high PE. People were talking about Tesla dropping in half which it did and I think NVDA will also. I'm not saying NVDA is bad at all or Tesla. I'm still heavy in Tesla but these run-ups are caused by hype. The only problem is you don't know when they stop. NVDA can run a lot more but I believe like Tesla it will come back to earth.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

NVDA is looking a lot like Tesla did 1 year or so ago,high market cap, and high PE. People were talking about Tesla dropping in half which it did and I think NVDA will also. I'm not saying NVDA is bad at all or Tesla. I'm still heavy in Tesla but these run-ups are caused by hype. The only problem is you don't know when they stop. NVDA can run a lot more but I believe like Tesla it will come back to earth.

You are probably right. I’ve trimmed some already this year but have done really well with NVDA. I like putting my money in the best companies with the best products.


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[Kowaco]

Vmfxx 5.28%

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

NVDA is looking a lot like Tesla did 1 year or so ago,high market cap, and high PE. People were talking about Tesla dropping in half which it did and I think NVDA will also. I'm not saying NVDA is bad at all or Tesla. I'm still heavy in Tesla but these run-ups are caused by hype. The only problem is you don't know when they stop. NVDA can run a lot more but I believe like Tesla it will come back to earth.

Originally Posted by austinp

You are probably right. I’ve trimmed some already this year but have done really well with NVDA. I like putting my money in the best companies with the best products.


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NVIDIA is different than Tesla because there are no close substitutes for NVIDIA hardware. AMD and Intel are generations behind with their enterprise hardwares that work with AI. So, unless you think AI is going away, NVIDIA is still a structural growth story. Imo at least.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by 904VT

NVIDIA is different than Tesla because there are no close substitutes for NVIDIA hardware. AMD and Intel are generations behind with their enterprise hardwares that work with AI. So, unless you think AI is going away, NVIDIA is still a structural growth story. Imo at least.

Have you been watching the options chain on NVDA? The battle around 500 has been the most fascinating I’ve seen in awhile. I have no skin in the game, but it looks like it’s gonna move fast once that gets sorted out.

And I agree on the fundamentals. I wouldn’t be short.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by 904VT

NVIDIA is different than Tesla because there are no close substitutes for NVIDIA hardware. AMD and Intel are generations behind with their enterprise hardwares that work with AI. So, unless you think AI is going away, NVIDIA is still a structural growth story. Imo at least.

The product view of NVIDIA is undeniable. The question is not whether AI is going away, it is whether the path of growth matches the implied path based on valuations.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Have you been watching the options chain on NVDA? The battle around 500 has been the most fascinating I’ve seen in awhile. I have no skin in the game, but it looks like it’s gonna move fast once that gets sorted out.

And I agree on the fundamentals. I wouldn’t be short.

I have and I agree. I think a lot of big traders are looking for more buying opportunities.

Originally Posted by BraveBold

The product view of NVIDIA is undeniable. The question is not whether AI is going away, it is whether the path of growth matches the implied path based on valuations.

I think when demand is this high, the price becomes self-fulfilling. Temporary buying opportunities because of the inherent flaws/inefficiencies cap weight indices drive. It doesn’t make sense to buy more of everything just because the price is higher but that’s what cap weight does. Imo puts new patterns of volatility in the market that unfortunately makes it less about the fundamentals than pre-index fund proliferation. I hate to put targets out there but my personal target is $1k and share split in the next 3-5 years. Once AMD disappoints again, it may drive another NVIDIA run. It still seems the valuations are reasonable considering the consistent revenue surprises. I think that once TSMC fabrication costs improve, NVIDIA will be able to churn out/print money with H100 stations.

[INC]

I found an interesting chart about BTC, what do you think about it? Is it possible that soon the same thing will happen as before?

[doctoryellow]

Originally Posted by INC

I found an interesting chart about BTC, what do you think about it? Is it possible that soon the same thing will happen as before?

They say spring of 2024 (next halving)

[huncho]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Have you been watching the options chain on NVDA? The battle around 500 has been the most fascinating I’ve seen in awhile. I have no skin in the game, but it looks like it’s gonna move fast once that gets sorted out.

And I agree on the fundamentals. I wouldn’t be short.

the option flow on it is ridiculous, literally millions in calls being thrown at every pullback and the IV is juiced but they don't even care lol. people think it's a retail bubble but the amount of institutional money being thrown at it is insane

Originally Posted by INC

I found an interesting chart about BTC, what do you think about it? Is it possible that soon the same thing will happen as before?

tough to say, SEC took a fat L this week against crypto and now the spot etfs will start getting approved. you would think this would at least push it past 30 and on a small run but the price hasn't moved on any speculation or positive news at all this year, so my guess is right now it's just being massively manipulated to allow the big boys to accumulate it, but the fact that everyone expects the cycle to start during halving again makes me skeptical it starts next summer. it will take a while for all that money to start flowing through etfs and the price to start reflecting the scarcity. we all know retail isnt buying in the 20s or below, they'll flood in when it goes past 50 again lol, so right now it's in the hands of the whales

the last cycle wasn't even that crazy, it only did +250% from the previous ath

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by huncho

the option flow on it is ridiculous, literally millions in calls being thrown at every pullback and the IV is juiced but they don't even care lol. people think it's a retail bubble but the amount of institutional money being thrown at it is insane

Yeah, it is definitely not a retail bubble. It’s a big money playground. I honestly cannot remember ever any stock haven’t this much options action and not have a breakout. Its just pegged in that range. I am so tempted but I’m not that smart.

I will say that VIX at 13 going into September in this macro environment does not feel right to me at all.

[INC]

"Michael Burry Bets $1.6 Billion That the Stock Market Will Crash"



What do you think?

[espanol]

Originally Posted by INC

"Michael Burry Bets $1.6 Billion That the Stock Market Will Crash"



What do you think?

Burry is more often wrong than he is right on his calls. But, not all predictions are created equal, as predictions are commonly rewarded disproportionately.

Very smart man, but prudent investors will not stray from their long-term financial plan due to shifts Burry is currently making to his own portfolio.

[INC]

Thanks :)

[FLGatorM5]

Originally Posted by INC

"Michael Burry Bets $1.6 Billion That the Stock Market Will Crash"



What do you think?

Brilliant dude and a fascinating mind to watch but anything that says “crash” isn’t relevant to me or my long term goals. You stay invested no matter what as there is no other way to win the game in the long term.

Proper financial advice ≠ trading advice.

[huncho]

pretty sure estimates have him down like 20+% already

[enjoythemusic]

Oil climbing....