Talking Stocks 2.0

[In-N-Out]

I think this is probably the worst day for cryptos…probably second only to March 2020 COVID day. Down like -25% in my substantial crypto portfolio uh oh

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Good god, are you guys watching the carnage in Asia? Haven't seen a drop like this in the Nikkei since the 80s. NAS futures down almost 6%, hang on boys, going to be a hell of a ride, maybe even circuit breaker hit tomorrow

Nikkei will short term bottom at 30500 tomorrow and go green. Don’t get caught short at the close today.

Watch for fed. Unconfirmed rumors of Emergency meeting today.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-...190000721.html

[Krash]

As soon as I saw the headlines coming out of the Middle East this evening, I knew the market would go down the drain on Monday. Looking at the futures is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points this week, will it even matter? I’m not sure, but I’m not saying they shouldn’t…


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[BraveBold]

Think Rolex wait-times will get even shorter? ;-)

[avidflyer]

i'm a pilot, not a economist, I've been following/playing the market the last 25 years. I think it's extremely wrong for them to make a cut based on the market. Which I know is not the entire decision-making if you have an emergency meeting, but I just think it looks really bad. What does that say about the state of the economy if you do cut at a emergency meeting/very bad day for the markets?

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

i'm a pilot, not a economist, I've been following/playing the market the last 25 years. I think it's extremely wrong for them to make a cut based on the market. Which I know is not the entire decision-making if you have an emergency meeting, but I just think it looks really bad. What does that say about the state of the economy if you do cut at a emergency meeting/very bad day for the markets?

I was an economist, and I agree. It is poor signaling. That said, they have been wrong holding rates at these levels this long. Also were wrong taking so long to hike. This isn’t 20/20 hindsight. This was my view in both directions. The issue now is indicators lag and have been distorted in this cycle by a handful of factors, mostly excess savings in the bottom half of the US population, along with wage growth patterns in that same cohort.

Anyways, it would be a mistake to call an emergency meeting due to stock market recognition of economic reality. That said, rates will need to be 100 bps lower, at least, by year end…

[huncho]

somehow we're down more in 1 pre market session on recession "fears" from one job report than we were the entire week banks were falling apart while inflation was still high. can someone make it make sense

[SDGT3]

The Fed has much ammunition in the form of rate cuts. I’m fearful of even more fiscal stimulus causing even more national debt and more inflation. We’re already spending more than 6-7% more than gdp growth in a non wartime and non recessionary period. And around and round we go.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by huncho

somehow we're down more in 1 pre market session on recession "fears" from one job report than we were the entire week banks were falling apart while inflation was still high. can someone make it make sense

Yes, it isn’t so much a reaction to the latest data (standalone) as it is a lack of appropriate reaction to prior data. The catalyst of recognition today, when a lot of indicators were turning weaker over months but were considered (even together) as a marginal benefit… “soft landing plus rate cut equal support “… the whole “bad news as good news”… so long as that bad news wasn’t “too” bad…

This has turned over now. That same prior data gets reinterpreted too. So what looks like an overreaction today may be better described as rectifying insufficient reaction over the prior months (or misinterpretation).

[superdog]

For the first time ever, I’m completely at ease seeing the markets take a turn this far south.

Just wondering if it’s the right buying time just yet. Im guessing the week will turn this worse.

Might buy small today and keep going as the days come.

Have to agree with BraveBold, the last few moths or longer, no matter the news, the markets would run north. It made no sense.

This at least is starting to make some sense if you zoom out and look at what’s happened over the last year, and what’s happening in the world today.

[BraveBold]

Yields whipsaw provides some opportunities at reasonable levels. Looks like rumors of an emergency Fed cut were quashed?

Reality is the Fed will need to move rates lower aggressively at some point this fall so the down/up let’s people late to the game buy in at attractive levels.

My opinion only.

Fully closed my Nvidia puts this morning. Had sold majority of puts last week but kept a bit in case the move continued. Now back to long only. I did not rotate proceeds to purchase more and won’t do so at these levels.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Yields whipsaw provides some opportunities at reasonable levels. Looks like rumors of an emergency Fed cut were quashed?

Reality is the Fed will need to move rates lower aggressively at some point this fall so the down/up let’s people late to the game buy in at attractive levels.

My opinion only.

Fully closed my Nvidia puts this morning. Had sold majority of puts last week but kept a bit in case the move continued. Now back to long only. I did not rotate proceeds to purchase more and won’t do so at these levels.

Closed my uvix. We hit 10% down on spy premarket. Good luck all. See you in couple days.

Inter meeting cut likely. When is anyone guess likely not today.

[-dustin]

have been hoping to do some shopping today, but am still unable to log into Schwab. Anyone else?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by -dustin

have been hoping to do some shopping today, but am still unable to log into Schwab. Anyone else?

heard they had issues but i'm on schwab through thinkorswim and had 0 issues this morning

[Krash]

Hopefully I’m not jinxing all of us by posting this, but glad to see it’s not as bad as it was early this morning…


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[vipereaper30]

If it turns Krash it's all on you!!

[RTG]

Originally Posted by -dustin

have been hoping to do some shopping today, but am still unable to log into Schwab. Anyone else?

Fidelity was down early this morning too. I missed a couple buys because of it. Not meant to be.

[huncho]

what we thinking here? worst is over or nah?

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

what we thinking here? worst is over or nah?

AAPL, MSFT, AMZN etc basically all big tech doubled in the past two years, some even more. Trillions and trillions of dollars worth that in my view was not supported by numbers. I know which way things should go, not sure which way they will go.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by huncho

what we thinking here? worst is over or nah?

Until Iran attack is over, I argue no. If that’s nothing, we should rally hard. I’ve got eyes on SP 200 day of 5011, we’ll get a bounce there.

[Krash]

Lots of bad news all over the place.

- Middle East Unrest
- Poor jobs data
- Japan’s sell off
- Buffet dumping Apple stick
- Pending recession???
- we even had a hurricane for good measure


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[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by Krash

Lots of bad news all over the place.

- Middle East Unrest
- Poor jobs data
- Japan’s sell off
- Buffet dumping Apple stick
- Pending recession???
- we even had a hurricane for good measure


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Agreed. If nik doesn’t hold the 30500 area, tomorrow will be very bad. I’m watching that more than anything else. Full disclosure I’m 100% cash.

8PM EST is when it opens. Watch it.

[usctrojan99]

Market has inflated to ATH with no regard to rates being steady. We need a correction. We don't need lower rates. People have been completely brainwashed with cheap money. Drawdowns happen and are healthy.

[FLGatorM5]

Always curious…When someone says “rates have been too high for too long” or “they have to cut sooner/Sept/Nov,” what are you basing that on?

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by usctrojan99

Market has inflated to ATH with no regard to rates being steady. We need a correction. We don't need lower rates. People have been completely brainwashed with cheap money. Drawdowns happen and are healthy.

Concur, but we've been conditioned to accept the meddling of the fed (and other areas of the government) in order to "protect" us. Let the free markets do their thing would be my preferred approach.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by Krash

Lots of bad news all over the place.

- Middle East Unrest
- Poor jobs data
- Japan’s sell off
- Buffet dumping Apple stick
- Pending recession???
- we even had a hurricane for good measure


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With regard to Buffett and Apple, it’s still Berkshire’s #1 holding, but it made up more than 50% of all Berk assets so he paired concentration and took profits. He also mentioned the legislative risk he sees with higher capital gains taxes in the future. According to Buffett, Apple is still a great company.

Japan’s carry trade on the Yen is disrupting more than one thought it would. Lot to unpack, but as others have said, a little purge is healthy.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

With regard to Buffett and Apple, it’s still Berkshire’s #1 holding, but it made up more than 50% of all Berk assets so he paired concentration and took profits. He also mentioned the legislative risk he sees with higher capital gains taxes in the future. According to Buffett, Apple is still a great company.

Japan’s carry trade on the Yen is disrupting more than one thought it would. Lot to unpack, but as others have said, a little purge is healthy.

I forgot to add ‘potential higher capital gains tax’ to my list. That’s another factor. Not sure why I forgot it, because I often think about it…


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by FLGatorM5

Always curious…When someone says “rates have been too high for too long” or “they have to cut sooner/Sept/Nov,” what are you basing that on?

A deep understanding of macroeconomics and professional experience?

I may have outlined some of the basics above. It is both very complicated and extremely simple. There are also several unknowables, including healthy doses of the unpredictable impulses of humans…

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Concur, but we've been conditioned to accept the meddling of the fed (and other areas of the government) in order to "protect" us. Let the free markets do their thing would be my preferred approach.

The Fed and its decisions are endogenous to the market and valuations. You cannot call a rate cut meddling any more than a rate hike is interference. Rather, to be precise, you have to consider what the data suggest with respect to the Fed’s dual mandate and the balance of risks.

[BraveBold]

For those referencing Buffett. I am a big follower of his approach(es), which (as with anyone as intelligent as he is) have adjusted as he continues to learn and evolve.

He has always had some amount of asset allocation and market timing embedded in his approach. However, he also recognizes he is in a different league from most in terms if ability (however you may define) and willingness to commit that ability to be applied to investing. 99.9%+ of the population lack that combination and so advocating his approach would be inappropriate. Instead, his sage advice is targeting the bulk of his audience… for most, simple indexes and avoiding market timing attempts is far more productive.

His own asset allocation strategy includes a holistic approach and how his portfolio generates / holds cash and cash like instruments. The timing piece is related to where and how he directed the cash… and the types of liabilities his businesses have…