Talking Stocks 2.0

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed, the futures are an indication that the basic market structure is broken and will need to be sorted out after this is over



I have seen that term used several times now "generational opportunities".

I agree, there are many companies that on a fundamental basis should not be valued as they are. The problem at this moment is that no one knows how to accurately value a company. So investors are left with trying to decide for themselves. I have been averaging down and trying to shift funds around to take advantage of long term opportunities with good entry points.

Those with a longer time horizon will do well to accumulate positions especially those in IRA, 401K and other dividend reinvesting products.

Yes I agree

Valuations are always tricky as guidance is lowered people are prepared to pay less and less for forward earnings etc. The exact same happened and in 87 etc.

In my view, the term “generational”, opportunities refers to being able to buy certain blue chip, dividend paying stocks at historical low prices. Historical being the operative word. You have to use something to value a company and in turn the market .... they all trade on earnings and I believe they will come back. Obviously not right away, but they will come back. If they don’t we don’t have a market IMO. Trying to pick a bottom is a mugs game IMHO.

If you have that long term time horizon, there are some names that I feel you can buy into at these levels.

I realize that are a million ways make and lose money

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yes I agree

Valuations are always tricky as guidance is lowered people are prepared to pay less and less for forward earnings etc. The exact same happened and in 87 etc.

In my view, the term “generational”, opportunities refers to being able to buy certain blue chip, dividend paying stocks at historical low prices. Historical being the operative word. You have to use something to value a company and in turn the market .... they all trade on earnings and I believe they will come back. Obviously not right away, but they will come back. If they don’t we don’t have a market IMO. Trying to pick a bottom is a mugs game IMHO.

If you have that long term time horizon, there are some names that I feel you can buy into at these levels.

I realize that are a million ways make and lose money

Completely agree and I have been posting my trades for the last week.

I am low on cash at this point and I am hesitant to buy on margin but I just might start if I can get a bit more clarity.

Listenting to the CVX CEO talking about his company, stock and dividend cuts. They have not cut their dividend since 1934 and they are trying to maintain their dividend now. Need to do more research this morning!

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...onavirus-risks

Everyone do your own homework

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Completely agree and I have been posting my trades for the last week.

I am low on cash at this point and I am hesitant to buy on margin but I just might start if I can get a bit more clarity.

You are a brave man sir. I’ve never done a margin buy, but have to admit at these levels it’s tempting.

Good luck you you Brian

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Completely agree and I have been posting my trades for the last week.

I am low on cash at this point and I am hesitant to buy on margin but I just might start if I can get a bit more clarity.

Oh boy.

I don’t have your knowledge or understanding.

But to buy on margin in this environment seems folly.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

But to buy on margin in this environment seems folly.

People have a herd mentality. Lots of FOMO. If the market goes up, people will ride the wave, play the momentum. Until some bad news comes along.

I used to buy a lot of stock on margin. I had a very aggressive broker (this was back before discount brokers came along) who put me into volatile tech stocks, and at one point the interest payments on my margin were more than my house payment.

Those were wild times. I made some big bucks, and I lost some big bucks.

In an up market, leveraging your buying power is a strategy. As long as you can remain nimble and have the stones and resources to stay strong when it dips (i.e. survive margin calls) then you can do very well.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

You are a brave man sir. I’ve never done a margin buy, but have to admit at these levels it’s tempting.

Good luck you you Brian

Thanks

Originally Posted by superdog

Oh boy.

I don’t have your knowledge or understanding.

But to buy on margin in this environment seems folly.

Perhaps but this is where you maintain your discipline and keep very tight stops on those positions

Originally Posted by m j b

People have a herd mentality. Lots of FOMO. If the market goes up, people will ride the wave, play the momentum. Until some bad news comes along.

I used to buy a lot of stock on margin. I had a very aggressive broker (this was back before discount brokers came along) who put me into volatile tech stocks, and at one point the interest payments on my margin were more than my house payment.

Those were wild times. I made some big bucks, and I lost some big bucks.

In an up market, leveraging your buying power is a strategy. As long as you can remain nimble and have the stones and resources to stay strong when it dips (i.e. survive margin calls) then you can do very well.

Agreed and I am less concerned with buying on margin at these levels especially for the longer term. The interest cost is just part of doing business not unlike financing in other businesses.

Now day trading index options, that is another story . . .

[JParm]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yes I agree

Valuations are always tricky as guidance is lowered people are prepared to pay less and less for forward earnings etc. The exact same happened and in 87 etc.

In my view, the term “generational”, opportunities refers to being able to buy certain blue chip, dividend paying stocks at historical low prices. Historical being the operative word. You have to use something to value a company and in turn the market .... they all trade on earnings and I believe they will come back. Obviously not right away, but they will come back. If they don’t we don’t have a market IMO. Trying to pick a bottom is a mugs game IMHO.

If you have that long term time horizon, there are some names that I feel you can buy into at these levels.

I realize that are a million ways make and lose money

I have been buying since last Monday. We have extra cash from a high-yield savings account that wasn't so...high-yield. This is outside of our regular savings, so we decided to move it into the stock market. We're generally mutual fund-type people, long-term investors, but there are companies that we have looked at in the past that are now very attractive at the price-points.

Still have about 60% of the money to spend, waiting it out to see what happens, but we feel that the large-cap companies that we bought into aren't going anywhere anytime soon. GOOGL, FB, DIS, NKE...Even ones like UBER, YELP and TRIP. As Beshannon likes to say, do your own research (and we most definitely have!) and don't just go in blindly buying because it looks low at the moment.

[beshannon]

VIX chart.

There is nothing wrong with volatility and selling, it is the panic selling that distorts everything. Looks like this may have backed off for the time being

Futures off limit up as more news is hitting but still looking good this morning

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I have been buying since last Monday. We have extra cash from a high-yield savings account that wasn't so...high-yield. This is outside of our regular savings, so we decided to move it into the stock market. We're generally mutual fund-type people, long-term investors, but there are companies that we have looked at in the past that are now very attractive at the price-points.

Still have about 60% of the money to spend, waiting it out to see what happens, but we feel that the large-cap companies that we bought into aren't going anywhere anytime soon. GOOGL, FB, DIS, NKE...Even ones like UBER, YELP and TRIP. As Beshannon likes to say, do your own research (and we most definitely have!) and don't just go in blindly buying because it looks low at the moment.

Beyond our very own Beshannon and others here, there are some very insightful quotes from folks who have a bit of experience on the subject

https://davisetfs.com/investor_education/quotes

My favourite: “A market downturn doesn’t bother us. it is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices ~ Warren Buffett.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Beyond our very own Beshannon and others here, there are some very insightful quotes from folks who have a bit of experience on the subject

https://davisetfs.com/investor_education/quotes

My favourite: “A market downturn doesn’t bother us. it is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices ~ Warren Buffett.

Lots of good info in the thread from many members, I am just trying to do my part

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Lots of good info in the thread from many members, I am just trying to do my part

And it’s appreciated Brian

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Lots of good info in the thread from many members, I am just trying to do my part

Originally Posted by brandrea

And it’s appreciated Brian

Truly appreciate the insight here, gents!

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

But to buy on margin in this environment seems folly.

I think you hit upon a two-edged sword in my opinion. For us, it is a sense of risk taking based on optimism. It’s bold and could be a good thing.

But...

With the Fed easing lending and encouraging the use of liquidity reserves, my apprehension is loose money for the investment bank desks could have repercussions beyond the term of this health crisis. Could be a very bad thing.

As the Fed begins to buy MBS ETFs (had never been done even during the last recession) and soon the synthetic derivative paper, it is easy for investment banks to use other people’s money to speculate. A bad bet there would require a new bailout.

We could be overdriving our headlights in the fog here...just an example to consider:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-fr...and-liquidity/

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[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Lots of good info in the thread from many members, I am just trying to do my part

Originally Posted by brandrea

And it’s appreciated Brian

I'm a lurker in this thread (I'm an investor but I don't have any wisdom worth sharing) and I've got to say as I battle to save my business and the 30 people working for me this thread is the one thread on the internet which is most helpful in keeping me sane.
I really appreciate the input.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Lots of good info in the thread from many members, I am just trying to do my part

And I applaud your transparency.

Did you see Ackman’s interview during EMEA market openings - a $2.5B long bet!


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm a lurker in this thread (I'm an investor but I don't have any wisdom worth sharing) and I've got to say as I battle to save my business and the 30 people working for me this thread is the one thread on the internet which is most helpful in keeping me sane.
I really appreciate the input.

Best of luck hope you can keep it going!

Originally Posted by 77T

And I applaud your transparency.

Did you see Ackman’s interview during EMEA market openings - a $2.5B long bet!


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No but I am aware of Ackman, he is polarizing and he is not afraid to take risks. He has been really wrong and he has been really right. Hedge funds were in trouble for the last year anyway.

[RyanO]

I almost closed my long positions yesterday at a big loss. I usually sell at the bottom Let’s hope this time isn’t any different!


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[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

No but I am aware of Ackman, he is polarizing and he is not afraid to take risks. He has been really wrong and he has been really right. Hedge funds were in trouble for the last year anyway.

Everyone can spell Herbalife

Here’s what I meant: https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1029024422


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[RyanO]

Some promising data out of Germany too, their cases may be flattening:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...ases-spike.amp

Italy has seen new cases and deaths drop considerably. Let’s hope this trend continues. I’d love to be able to have a summer!


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Some promising data out of Germany too, their cases may be flattening:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...ases-spike.amp

Italy has seen new cases and deaths drop considerably. Let’s hope this trend continues. I’d love to be able to have a summer!


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Agreed

[beshannon]

Solid article here, it is long but lots of useful info, consider why things were being sold:

If the virus wasn’t enough, we are also in the midst of a “fire sale in the bond market,” as my colleague Kathy Jones put it in a conversation. There was a global rush to cash. Outside of short-term treasuries, everything was for sale last week at discounted prices. Leveraged investors such as hedge funds, and those using margin, were forced to liquidate as prices fell. Portfolio managers had to sell to meet redemptions from institutional and individual investors. They sold what they could—those investments that were liquid enough to get a bid—including long-term treasuries. Much of the selling was indiscriminate, driven by the demand for cash.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-cent...ro#sf231839995

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm a lurker in this thread (I'm an investor but I don't have any wisdom worth sharing) and I've got to say as I battle to save my business and the 30 people working for me this thread is the one thread on the internet which is most helpful in keeping me sane.

I really appreciate the input.

All the best to you and yours. I truly hope you can stay afloat.

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[healer]

It’s going to be a beautiful day;) Good morning everyone;)

[JParm]

Does anyone think we're nearing the bottom? I know you can't call the bottom exactly, but for all the doom and gloom from the last couple of weeks, it seems like things are looking up for the time being. It just seems like a far cry from all the "we could go down another 15-20%" that we've been seeing in the news.

Is that a fool's statement?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Does anyone think we're nearing the bottom? I know you can't call the bottom exactly, but for all the doom and gloom from the last couple of weeks, it seems like things are looking up for the time being. It just seems like a far cry from all the "we could go down another 15-20%" that we've been seeing in the news.

Is that a fool's statement?

Read the above article I posted.

No one can call the bottom, focus on your plan, keep cash ready for the next drop

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Read the above article I posted.

No one can call the bottom, focus on your plan, keep cash ready for the next drop

Just missed that - thanks, will take a look now

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Just missed that - thanks, will take a look now

Tony Dwyer is a solid analyst who I follow on Twitter and watch on TV. I do not subscribe to his service.

This was a tweet he just posted:

Tony Dwyer
@dwyerstrategy
There is no need to declare yesterday was "THE" low or not.

The setup we highlighted on Friday using extreme correlations supports the idea for "A" low after the panic phase of crash. That should be good enough for now.

Only way to look at this, one day at a time, with a plan to the future

[m j b]

I may be a fool, but any stock in my portfolio that rallied more than 10% this morning got sold. I think it's just overreaction to no news and optimism about the relief bill.

Update: except for MU and MCD. Those are long-term holdings. Most of what I sold were gas/oil stocks and travel related. I still think the upcoming recession, despite any relief bill, will hurt certain areas, and the oil prices got hit because of OPEC, not CV-19.

[Doc Savage]

Nicely up at the open.

Originally Posted by m j b

I may be a fool, but any stock in my portfolio that rallied more than 10% this morning got sold. I think it's just overreaction to no news and optimism about the relief bill.

I think this is exactly why. We are going to get positive news bumps over the next few months, but they are only good for quick profit taking, in my opinion. Once company earnings start posting massive losses, we are headed for another big push down.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

I may be a fool, but any stock in my portfolio that rallied more than 10% this morning got sold. I think it's just overreaction to no news and optimism about the relief bill.

Update: except for MU and MCD. Those are long-term holdings. Most of what I sold were gas/oil stocks and travel related. I still think the upcoming recession, despite any relief bill, will hurt certain areas, and the oil prices got hit because of OPEC, not CV-19.

Nothing wrong with that

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Nicely up at the open.


I think this is exactly why. We are going to get positive news bumps over the next few months, but they are only good for quick profit taking, in my opinion. Once company earnings start posting massive losses, we are headed for another big push down.

I am not sure since that news is being known now that guidance is being cut or suspended. I am more interested in them reinstating guidance for the third and fourth quarters