Is vintage collecting a dying hobby?

[cwilson13]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

You know... if think you’re right on so many levels. The Rolex brand values are set for several generations to come.

I know this is a Rolex centric community but what about the vintage pieces the hard core guys also collect? UG Evil Nina’s? Omega Ed Whites and early Seamasters? Heuer Cameros? How about the defunct vintage microbrands like Pierce?

These too are experiencing the same issues discussed in this thread and don’t have cool brand ambassadors...


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Thinking my Pierce could be the next Daytona.
Or more likely it’s time to update my meds!

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by cwilson13

Thinking my Pierce could be the next Daytona.

Or more likely it’s time to update my meds!

It’s funny, I’m trying to sell one just like this right now. It’s a wonderful, rare chronograph with a fantastic military pedigree... And it even has an in house column wheel movement. Not some pedestrian Valjoux!

But prices are depressed and folks on this thread suggest it’s because there are no cool brand ambassadors projecting aspirational values...

Vintage Pierce needs a Baller to wear one. Or for Hodinkee to get excited over one.

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[cwilson13]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

It’s funny, I’m trying to sell one just like this right now. It’s a wonderful, rare chronograph with a fantastic military pedigree... And it even has an in house column wheel movement. Not some pedestrian Valjoux!

But prices are depressed and folks on this thread suggest it’s because there are no cool brand ambassadors projecting aspirational values...

Vintage Pierce needs a Baller to wear one. Or for Hodinkee to get excited over one.

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As soon as I am famous, I promise to leave my 6263 at home and only wear the Pierce.

Hold tight for a few more months. Prices are about to sky rocket!

[roh123]

What drives most rolexes nowdays is the kind of contemporary design it has. A pre-daytona 6238 is for instance less than half of a more modern looking manual Daytona. This is one of the biggest strengths of vintage rolex sports watches; the design for the classic models is timeless.

I feel for the Pierce in the same way I feel for rare and perfect Killys which should cost so much more comparing other Rolex chronographs. Even if they are super expensive for most of us they are currently way too cheap looking at history, rarity and quality.

Luckily a great watch gives us as much pleasure wearing regardless of value. Quality doesn’t necessarily equal price.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by roh123

I feel for the Pierce in the same way I feel for rare and perfect Killys which should cost so much more comparing other Rolex chronographs. Even if they are super expensive for most of us they are currently way too cheap looking at history, rarity and quality.

Agree. The Killy is cheap compared to later Daytona’s. Illogical given how beautiful it is. 🧐

Pierce are becoming much harder to find in good condition; as are watchmakers willing to work on them. But boy, their dials age well. Can’t say the same for many vintage Rolex of the same era. Illogical. 🧐

The expression “irrational exuberance” comes to mind.



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[motoikkyu]

So many well articulated opinions, hats off to you all. I've seen groups of young people get into the rapidly-climbing vintage Rolex prices market more than once in my collecting lifetime, each time there was a rollback corresponding to the economy in general, and a lot of them left the business. This isn't new.

What is new and potentially worrisome is fewer folks wearing wristwatches in the USA, can't speak for the rest of the world. I don't think the hipster patina obsession is a permanent part of the established elements of watch value, I'd take a mint piece over a patina piece nearly every time if I'm concerned about investment value.

[SSerna93]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

So many well articulated opinions, hats off to you all. I've seen groups of young people get into the rapidly-climbing vintage Rolex prices market more than once in my collecting lifetime, each time there was a rollback corresponding to the economy in general, and a lot of them left the business. This isn't new.

What is new and potentially worrisome is fewer folks wearing wristwatches in the USA, can't speak for the rest of the world. I don't think the hipster patina obsession is a permanent part of the established elements of watch value, I'd take a mint piece over a patina piece nearly every time if I'm concerned about investment value.

In my eyes, just from being probably the youngest one in the conversation. I am going to take a mint piece as well, if I can get a vintage piece in great shape for under market price I’m going to pull the trigger 9/10, knowing that even after I wear it, if for any reason at all an emergency arises, my investment is safe and for me being so young, granted I do have my ducks in a row, I’d rather lose a luxury than dig into my savings.

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

I've collected lots of things since childhood - stamps, coins, fountain pens, cigarette lighters. General enthusiasm for collecting these objects peaked while they had some social context and utility. Collections now go unsold at estate sales...

I think you've got your {own} answer here.

Recent trends indicate no watch at all is where the kids are at... apparently.

[Frosty]

One place that young people still wear watches is the military.

I like vintage a lot.

The prices are getting so high that I think there are still a lot of enthusiasts, they just cannot afford to purchase. That does not stop them from looking and doing research.

[MorningTundra]

Enthusiasm for things that are seeing irrational price rises attract young and old. Crypto currency comes to mind.

Examples like this just seem crazy...





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[ExPADIdiver]

Originally Posted by 037

"Ruined" in what way, exactly?

If anything is a negative in my book, I can really only complain that prices have increased and fakes are more rampant -- but both are unavoidable in any hobby that gains popularity. Prices are impossible to predict so I wouldn't personally put that in the "ruined" category. Fake cases, dials, inserts and full watches are where things get tricky with vintage. That does tend to ruin it.

But, I'm like 05carbondrz in enjoying my time so far. I cut my teeth in vintage with a 1665 SD over a decade ago but am enjoying it again after recently picking up an older GMT. If the vintage market picks up or slows down, my investment isn't so big that I'll care one way or the other. That helps keep it fun.

Vintage won't likely die. There will always be those who prefer old over the new no matter how good the new stuff is made.

I explained. It got deleted. Truth hurts.

[Karbo]

1/ A watch tells time thats the first thing and it’s great, but more, it tells who you are even before you had time to open the mouth. You have more informations than on your ID. I see nothing giving more informations about you. Its part of everyone’s image and more than ever image is very important.
2/ Watches belongs to the ART market, it gives tremendous emotionals feelings. Its like painting, and paintings will not disappear now that we are in the digital era, like an Apple Watch won’t kill the swiss watch industry.

Thats why we need watches and why I think this hobby will continue a few more weeks !

[Kingface66]

I just sold two of my three vintage Rolexes, a 1967 5512, and a gilt 1016. (I'm gonna hang onto my birth year (1966) gilt 5513 because of sentimental reasons, and 'cause it's very pretty).

That said, I was genuinely (and pleasantly) shocked by the profit made on the two that I sold. What the 1016 fetched absolutely stunned me. The flip side, of course, is that I realize there's no way I would or could buy back those two today for the prices they sold at.

And I guess that's my point: I may have effectively ended my ability to collect those references and years. So, unless the prices tumble, and at which point I still find them enticing, I think I may be done. It's weird to say that, but sadly it's quite possibly true.

[05carbondrz]

If your selling to move to a new Hobby/Buy a House etc by all means do it.If You are still interested in collecting Watches You are chasing your Tail.

[jdmi32]

Eventually, prices will be too enticing for many “regular” collectors, like me, not to cash in, with many of the nicest examples ending up in the vast collections of the truly wealthy. And for the most part, there they will stay. This happened with the earliest references, and the gilt dials after that, and now the mattes.

Someday the five digits will be what most people refer to when talking about vintage.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by Kingface66

I just sold two of my three vintage Rolexes, a 1967 5512, and a gilt 1016. (I'm gonna hang onto my birth year (1966) gilt 5513 because of sentimental reasons, and 'cause it's very pretty).

That said, I was genuinely (and pleasantly) shocked by the profit made on the two that I sold. What the 1016 fetched absolutely stunned me. The flip side, of course, is that I realize there's no way I would or could buy back those two today for the prices they sold at.

And I guess that's my point: I may have effectively ended my ability to collect those references and years. So, unless the prices tumble, and at which point I still find them enticing, I think I may be done. It's weird to say that, but sadly it's quite possibly true.

This is what I was referring to in the opening post about the Golden Age coming to an end with collectors reluctantly(?) cashing in ...

That Golden Age being a time when collectible vintage examples were within the reach of Every Man. The only references still within reach are the manual wind Precision’s...

This is becoming an elite hobby.


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[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by jdmi32

This happened with the earliest references, and the gilt dials after that, and now the mattes.

Someday the five digits will be what most people refer to when talking about vintage.

I think you’re right. 5 digit refs have seen strong price growth this year. Especially last of the tritium dials.

5 digit Tudors too look like attractive buys.



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[sillo]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

I think you’re right. 5 digit refs have seen strong price growth this year. Especially last of the tritium dials.

5 digit Tudors too look like attractive buys.



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Even those have been moving out of reach for a lot of people. I probably would only be able to buy my 16570 at current prices.

I've been focusing on vintage Seiko lately, I'm very happy with my current Rolex lineup.

[roh123]

There’s more than enough 4-digit sports to go around. Even if later watches are moving up I think they are mostly following the prices of modern watches.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by roh123

There’s more than enough 4-digit sports to go around. Even if later watches are moving up I think they are mostly following the prices of modern watches.

... to go around the deep pocketed, elite collectors perhaps. Many average 4-digit refs are going for the price of a new(ish) car. Even supposedly affordable Tudors.

If I’m sounding bitter, it’s probably because I was just priced out of a watch I was going after 🤨


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[roh123]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

... to go around the deep pocketed, elite collectors perhaps. Many average 4-digit refs are going for the price of a new(ish) car. Even supposedly affordable Tudors.




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Like anything else great examples will continue to be expensive. Slightly less than perfect but still good watches will probably still be available for motivated collectors. I think the market will mature and a lot of watches will correct. Rare and perfect will likely not get cheaper but a lot of standard watches wont cost like a new(ish) car. I feel for people rushing to buy non-rare and not perfect pieces in todays market.

The current hype for anything Rolex sport pushes all prices right now. I think great vintage is way more sustainable compared to other things. That said I doubt anything vintage will be a winner.

[chows99]

Dear roh123,

In reference to your correction of prices for non-rare models, how would people tell what model is rare?

For eg, is 1675 and other 4 digits model considered as rare given most of the watches production are a few decades ago?

I am asking as since Rolex never reveal production figures, it's real hard to quantify each given model.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by chows99

Dear roh123,

In reference to your correction of prices for non-rare models, how would people tell what model is rare?

For eg, is 1675 and other 4 digits model considered as rare given most of the watches production are a few decades ago?

I am asking as since Rolex never reveal production figures, it's real hard to quantify each given model.

Matte 1675’s in general are not rare at all. In top, top, top comdition they are fairly hard to find but the only rare matte version is imho the radial dial.

As I said earlier there more than enough 4-digit watches around to meet the demand. If you want a really, really great example they are also availale. You just need to do your homework and look hard enough. What differentiates vintage from modern is that buying vintage requires skill and patience. Having money is far from enough to get really awesome pieces.

[rolexbrand]

the word means something itself, so i dont accept this

[4rnold]

I'm no expert but look at it this way: imo prices will never go down, why? because of the demand. Imagine that you can buy a 4 digit daytona tomorrow for 10K because there was a huge price drop.
10K is still a lot of money for the average guy. But nontheless you'll have to be very quick to buy them, because I will, and so most of the guys here will buy some. Just because we can, and just because we know what they were worth and most likely will be again. (And because they are amazing).

So who will be crazy enough to sell them way under the current price? No one.
You will keep them. So the demand will always be higher then the supply.
That means high prices.

I think we are at a peak tough, prices will rise but more steady then before I guess.

[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by roh123

That said I doubt anything vintage will be a winner.

Better sell your whole collection then.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by 05carbondrz

Better sell your whole collection then.

Why? I feel fairly comfortable with the stuff I have. Decently rare and more than good enough condition. And probably most important; I like what I have.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by 4rnold

I'm no expert but look at it this way: imo prices will never go down, why? because of the demand. Imagine that you can buy a 4 digit daytona tomorrow for 10K because there was a huge price drop.
10K is still a lot of money for the average guy. But nontheless you'll have to be very quick to buy them, because I will, and so most of the guys here will buy some. Just because we can, and just because we know what they were worth and most likely will be again. (And because they are amazing).

So who will be crazy enough to sell them way under the current price? No one.
You will keep them. So the demand will always be higher then the supply.
That means high prices.

I think we are at a peak tough, prices will rise but more steady then before I guess.

You talk like a man that’s never experienced the sharp end of financial hardship. Either personally (bankruptcy, illness etc) or collectively (recession, natural disaster etc).
In which case you’re very lucky and by no means an average collector or Every Man.

Demand does ebb and flow for lots of reasons, as do qualifying life events. Declaring so confidently that there will always be demand, or that you’ll always be in a position to drop $10k+ on a watch feels like tempting fate...


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[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by roh123

Why? I feel fairly comfortable with the stuff I have. Decently rare and more than good enough condition. And probably most important; I like what I have.

Because they are going to be losers any Day now by your logic above.What I’m trying to say is that if You TRULY thought all vintage Watches Where losers that you would have sold out by now.You can say Money doesn’t matter all You want,We all know it does.

[fusionstorm]

When premium vintage starts percolating deeper into the cultural zeitgeist, IMO it will only create further interest in vintage. The movie "Crazy Rich Asians" had a panda dial Paul Newman Daytona be the epitome timepiece that an affluent wife would gift her husband:

https://timeandtidewatches.com/news-...-props-matter/

#1 movie in the US market for the past 2 weeks, as well as strong box office in numerous overseas markets. Out of the many millions who end up watching CRA in the theaters, streaming or DVDs, there's bound to be more than a few folks who will start researching vintage and eventually make the jump...........