Bump, Bump, Goose? S’long Nautilus speculators!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by gmstevenson

I suspect when the secondary prices level out and start to drop, we will see a lot more owners who purchased at retail rushing to trade up into more complicated references.

They already have and I don't think it is going to happen. Many seem to be infatuated which is fine I was just curious as most of my long time friends on here feel the same as me. It is a fun watch that was a stretch at retail back when that was 24k.

We have already seen a 15% haircut in naut prices the past week.

I personally think prices will remain stable until the equities markets sell off further. Which I think is more likely to happen in 2020 than this fall.

[ToneLok]

I have a couple I picked up pre-owned a few years back when they were by comparison giving them away. What brought this front of mind was trying to pick a up a 5711 for my wife and a 5726 for buddy. My buddy is so turned off by the process he’s looking at other brands. My AD has the blue to black chrono dress watch they showed at Basel just sitting there and other cool “fancier” watches you’d think would be tough to get but they’re offering silly deals to pick up. Until this passes I’m tempted to grab it and maybe a ceramic ROO for my wife and still pay less than a grey market 5726. I just can’t see paying the same for a sport watch as I did for my Lange Pour Le Mérite.

Other interesting luxury market insights can be gleaned from the Sotheby’s auction at Pebble Beach yesterday. The only thing worse than being long on a top-of-secondary-market Nautilus right now is having grabbed a vintage collectible car in the last couple years. Off 25%+ yesterday and tons didn’t even come close to selling.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Is there anyone here who purchased a nautilus more than 3 years ago and thinks it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will continue to rise in value?

I am seriously asking.

2015 was my first. I think it's a great watch, it fits my lifestyle and clicks a lot of the boxes for me personally. After all these are very objective purchases. I liked it enough to get a second one and the demand only supported the decision.

On the value side... Whatever at this point. If they go back down to MSRP I will continue to keep wearing both until the style no longer speaks to me. No different than any other watch.
But these weekly speculator/anti-speculator threads are getting really repetitive. It's starting to feel like the long vs shorts. It's not Tesla, Lumber Liquidators, Nvidia. It's just a pretty piece of steel that tells time.

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Rich idiot :)

Your one quote back in the day still makes me laugh to this day

Upper-middle class idiot ：）

Glad my sarcastic humor makes you laugh

[Eagleeye1]

Just two years ago in Atlantis Bahamas 5990 and 5980 1 ar in window and nobody was even looking at it. All of a sudden price jumps on secondary market and everyone wants one now.


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[Dr.Teatime]

Well said
I got mine a couple of years ago, and my AD even offered a discount on the 5712.
I bought it as a 40th b-day present to myself-
I have no intention of flipping it.... but thats just me.
The speculation market seems to detract from the idea of buying a fine time piece for the joy of wearing it. It may be time to consider the independents- seema to be less chatter about whether a Vouti, Claret or Rexhepi is going to surge in price. These are interesting intellectual convo’s but not really drive by horology...

Just my 2c

Originally Posted by CamSLC

2015 was my first. I think it's a great watch, it fits my lifestyle and clicks a lot of the boxes for me personally. After all these are very objective purchases. I liked it enough to get a second one and the demand only supported the decision.

On the value side... Whatever at this point. If they go back down to MSRP I will continue to keep wearing both until the style no longer speaks to me. No different than any other watch.
But these weekly speculator/anti-speculator threads are getting really repetitive. It's starting to feel like the long vs shorts. It's not Tesla, Lumber Liquidators, Nvidia. It's just a pretty piece of steel that tells time.

[S``]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Is there anyone here who purchased a nautilus more than 3 years ago and thinks it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will continue to rise in value?

I am seriously asking.

Mine is bought in 2012. Probably one of the last few that used screws instead of pins and sleeves on its bracelet.

I do forsee this rising further in value... Why not?

As with Fat Ninja, I do like having something that increases in value...

Before you say that I'm wrong to see watches as in investment...

I also happen to own a PAM and a Girard Perregaux, along with Seikos, Orients and Omegas...

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by S``

Mine is bought in 2012. Probably one of the last few that used screws instead of pins and sleeves on its bracelet.

I do forsee this rising further in value... Why not?

As with Fat Ninja, I do like having something that increases in value...

Before you say that I'm wrong to see watches as in investment...

I also happen to own a PAM and a Girard Perregaux, along with Seikos, Orients and Omegas...

I didn’t intend to harass people for their views here. I just noticed most of the people who feel a certain way about the nautilus line showed up here in the past year or two max. Merely an observation.

[S``]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I didn’t intend to harass people for their views here. I just noticed most of the people who feel a certain way about the nautilus line showed up here in the past year or two max. Merely an observation.

No worries man... I'm no snowflake...



Instead of writing up about bubbles, we should be doing an O/U to how many more of these threads will pop out over a period of a quarter... much more fun

[pam66]

Originally Posted by gmstevenson

I suspect when the secondary prices level out and start to drop, we will see a lot more owners who purchased at retail looking to trade up into more complicated references.

you mean those more complicated references that should be worn with suit&tie or even better black tie or tuxedo?
i can't really see many people go back to that.
also i am with ninja, the best PCC is the i-phone. PCCs are engineering marvels but so is the steam engine:::)))) wearable art? yes but i prefer unique pieces of art.
so where does that leave the grand complications?

[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by pam66

you mean those more complicated references that should be worn with suit&tie or even better black tie or tuxedo?
i can't really see many people go back to that.
also i am with ninja, the best PCC is the i-phone. PCCs are engineering marvels but so is the steam engine:::)))) wearable art? yes but i prefer unique pieces of art.
so where does that leave the grand complications?

Maybe I'm out of touch but I still love the PCCs, PCs and chronos. The 5970 and 5070 are two references that I would love to own.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

That said I’m currently waiting for the Lillium jet... forget the mid engine Corvette or the lambo...possibly a Tesla roadster....but definitley the Lilium jet.

https://lilium.com/

Just get a Tesla roadster...

The Lillium jet is certainly cute but except for a video showing a short hover (seconds...) in ground effect under remote control they have provided little evidence for wildly ambitious claims. Lillium are great at marketing and collecting VC funds, but I am still waiting to see a Lillium jet on the tarmac when flying over the airport where they are based. At best this one will be awfully tricky to operate - ask V-22 Osprey drivers of the US Navy and familiarize yourself w their accident rate. More likely you'll never be able to buy one and if you were you'd not be allowed to operate it the way you want to.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by pam66

you mean those more complicated references that should be worn with suit&tie or even better black tie or tuxedo?

i can't really see many people go back to that.

also i am with ninja, the best PCC is the i-phone. PCCs are engineering marvels but so is the steam engine:::)))) wearable art? yes but i prefer unique pieces of art.

so where does that leave the grand complications?

These days nobody 'needs' a wristwatch.



You certainly don't need to dress up to wear a Patek complication on a strap and strangely I'm pretty sure Patek sells more complications (non sports) now than it has ever sold. Clearly the clamour is currently steel sports but that is not what defines the brand or it's core customers. You only have to see the love that complications get on this forum (and others) and the amazing changes that a strap can make to see the enduring love for more than SS sports. If you discount all buyers who have a steel sport Patek because they see it as a way to make money and concentrate on those that have one because it is an amazing watch on the wrist you will also find a great many of them have or want a Patek (and other brands) complication on a strap.

As for art on the wrist, well that can be enjoyed by the wearer at any time with these amazing pieces - Nautilus/Aquanaut are very nice pieces, comfortable and practical but they are not pieces to make the heart sing, for this you need more - that is why grand complications will endure long into the future

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These days nobody 'needs' a wristwatch.

You certainly don't need to dress up to wear a Patek complication on a strap and strangely I'm pretty sure Patek sells more complications (non sports) now than it has ever sold. Clearly the clamour is currently steel sports but that is not what defines the brand or it's core customers. You only have to see the love that complications get on this forum (and others) and the amazing changes that a strap can make to see the enduring love for more than SS sports. If you discount all buyers who have a steel sport Patek because they see it as a way to make money and concentrate on those that have one because it is an amazing watch on the wrist you will also find a great many of them have or want a Patek (and other brands) complication on a strap.

As for art on the wrist, well that can be enjoyed by the wearer at any time with these amazing pieces - Nautilus/Aquanaut are very nice pieces, comfortable and practical but they are not pieces to make the heart sing, for this you need more - that is why grand complications will endure long into the future

Russell, you have an awesome collection. I like that lumen very much.

[rlx123]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

A Japanese supermarket in NJ called Mitsuwa in edge water. They have a bunch of different stalls. Better than most places. The ramen is on same level as the best ones in NYC.

Oh yes. I was just there last month. They do have great Ramen and sweets



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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Is there anyone here who purchased a nautilus more than 3 years ago and thinks it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will continue to rise in value?

I am seriously asking.

Yes, I bought my 5712A at RRP in 2012 and it's my favourite watch.

I am agog at the prices, and if it continues to rise I might have to sell because I do not especially like the idea of wearing a megabucks watch (anything worth say >£80k). If I do sell I know I will regret it.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These days nobody 'needs' a wristwatch.

Should prices come under pressure, I might break the wife’s no preowned watch rule and try to get one of these. I still am in love with the old WT. something very romantic about this watch...I think it’s the curves

[Murcielagoboy2]

Although I have a 5711 and I'm waiting for a 5980/1r, I still don't think that the Nautilus is the pinnacle of watchmaking or some kind of horological genius.
They're nice.
And the 5711 was especially nice at some £18,200 or so, list, that I paid for it in 2017. I mean a rose gold Daytona on a strap was more or less the same price - so why not?

But I've said it before and I'll say it again, these Nautilus watches are nice but just not THAT nice.
If you compare some of the timeless style, complication and engineering that goes into something like a 5270/5370 and so on - it's another planet.

This hype will lessen. They may still go for "overs" in the secondary market but eventually the social media losers will move onto something even better suited to signalling status.

[bonsai-man]

I think it is important to remember that not everyone buys a steel Nautilus or Aquanaut because of the perceived hype or as an investment. When I bought my 5167/a it was the cheapest Patek model available, had a cheap tacky plastic strap, was considered the poor man’s Patek, sold at a discount and was the inferior little brother of the 5711 in every online review and forum thread I read at the time, and it’s my favourite watch.

In the UK the blue dial 5711/1a has re-sold at a premium and has been a waiting list piece for “many years before” all this hype started, the hype has just made the wait longer and the premium higher. I can’t predict the secondary market, but don’t see the steel blue face 5711 or its direct descendant (if discontinued) being sold below or at retail in 2020. I can however see the UK retail price rising in 2020 by 5-10% perhaps on or around 31st March 2020.

[Bearxj86]

I think there are 2 segments of the watch market:

1) Those that see watches as a luxury item and can appreciate the finer things.
i) Category I - Those that want to show off
ii) Category II - Those that want the right kind of appreciation (from others and financially)

2) WIS

The Nautilus appeals to all the above due to iconic design, wearability, relative scarcity. The dress watches especially the grand complications appeal to the latter category. There is also the matter of price practicality - what is the best "value" under $100k? I think we can all agree that there are plenty of options under $10k and under $20k especially for steel sports watches and there are plenty of complicated dress watches over $20k. Breguet is an example of amazing watchmaking at a fraction of a Patek.

I once was soaked in the rain wearing my 3970J and all I could worry about was whether it was ruined or would fog up. The same thing happened with a 3700 and it DID fog up but a bag of rice and a quick trip to a watchmaker saved the day. Perhaps many of you rock a 5131P/J/R daily, I only wore my 3970 and now 5170P to work. I would take it off especially during hotter days since no one wants a greasy leather strap and god forbid you get soaked in the rain.

I have tried many watches, Journes, Pateks, APs, Grand Seikos, Rolexes, but I still come back to the Nautilus as the perfect watch for my lifestyle (In 30s, white collar, comfortable but cannot consider myself wealthy). I was drawn to it the moment I saw it but ended up going with a basic 16610 sub.

For those that worry about bubbles, I think a classic 5711 blue and for me a 3712 in the long-term are solid pieces. Yes so what if it drops another $20k? I didn't sell at $70k and I don't regret it :)

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These days nobody 'needs' a wristwatch.



You certainly don't need to dress up to wear a Patek complication on a strap and strangely I'm pretty sure Patek sells more complications (non sports) now than it has ever sold. Clearly the clamour is currently steel sports but that is not what defines the brand or it's core customers. You only have to see the love that complications get on this forum (and others) and the amazing changes that a strap can make to see the enduring love for more than SS sports. If you discount all buyers who have a steel sport Patek because they see it as a way to make money and concentrate on those that have one because it is an amazing watch on the wrist you will also find a great many of them have or want a Patek (and other brands) complication on a strap.

As for art on the wrist, well that can be enjoyed by the wearer at any time with these amazing pieces - Nautilus/Aquanaut are very nice pieces, comfortable and practical but they are not pieces to make the heart sing, for this you need more - that is why grand complications will endure long into the future

well, i am not sure whether those WTs should not be defined as elaborate handcraft rather than art. the latter has a creative side to it - opening up new horizons in thinking and perception, which i do miss there.
other than that, surely nice watches - for those who like decorative enamel painting. but art in the true sense of the word it is not.

[tng11]

Even though I've had my 5712 for 14 months and wear it a lot, I don't delude myself that it is a miracle or pinnacle of horology, far from it. It is one of my favourite daily wearers when I want something a little more sophisticated, but not too formal or flashy. There are many other watches that have better features (e.g. Rolex is more durable and reliable, Lange has better finishing etc.), but it is my favourite overall watch.

At MSRP I find it very overpriced for what it is, let alone the grey market prices. If they go below MSRP one day I'll still gladly wear it, and with more reassurance that I can replace it if something bad happens.

[Aquaman]

can we just buy what we like and enjoy , might go back to being enjoyable for many of you

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by pam66

well, i am not sure whether those WTs should not be defined as elaborate handcraft rather than art. the latter has a creative side to it - opening up new horizons in thinking and perception, which i do miss there.
other than that, surely nice watches - for those who like decorative enamel painting. but art in the true sense of the word it is not.

ART
noun
- the expression or application of human creative skill and imagination, typically in a visual form such as painting or sculpture, producing works to be appreciated primarily for their beauty or emotional power.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Russell996

ART
noun
- the expression or application of human creative skill and imagination, typically in a visual form such as painting or sculpture, producing works to be appreciated primarily for their beauty or emotional power.

skill check, creative non-check, imagination totally non-check with such a piece reproduced many times. or can you think of leonardo or picasso redoing his paintings thousand times?
don't get me wrong, the people who do it are surely highly skilled in their handcraft and could possibly do artistic work of their own. what they do for patek is very skilled reproductive handcraft though, enjoyable for those who like it but without artistic depth.
if, however, you feel better thinking you wear a piece on the forefront of art on your wrist, then go on and enjoy:::)))

[ohforpetesakes]

Originally Posted by pam66

skill check, creative non-check, imagination totally non-check with such a piece reproduced many times. or can you think of leonardo or picasso redoing his paintings thousand times?
don't get me wrong, the people who do it are surely highly skilled in their handcraft and could possibly do artistic work of their own. what they do for patek is very skilled reproductive handcraft though, enjoyable for those who like it but without artistic depth.
if, however, you feel better thinking you wear a piece on the forefront of art on your wrist, then go on and enjoy:::)))

I think art is each to his own....the likes of Picasso or Hirst or even Matisse or Chagal remind me a bit like a blue dialled 5711....absent ofl merit for its price and driven purely by hype

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by pam66

skill check, creative non-check, imagination totally non-check with such a piece reproduced many times. or can you think of leonardo or picasso redoing his paintings thousand times?
don't get me wrong, the people who do it are surely highly skilled in their handcraft and could possibly do artistic work of their own. what they do for patek is very skilled reproductive handcraft though, enjoyable for those who like it but without artistic depth.
if, however, you feel better thinking you wear a piece on the forefront of art on your wrist, then go on and enjoy:::)))

By your definition the statue of David is not art, as there is little creativity and imagination in simply recreating the human form in rock. Art is subjective, and I would certainly classify certain watches as art over some of the pretentious drivel I've witnessed within some modern art museums.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by ohforpetesakes

I think art is each to his own....the likes of Picasso or Hirst or even Matisse or Chagal remind me a bit like a blue dialled 5711....Montreal merit for its price and driven purely by hype

yes, to each his own....opinion.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by _speedmaster_

By your definition the statue of David is not art, as there is little creativity and imagination in simply recreating the human form in rock. Art is subjective, and I would certainly classify certain watches as art over some of the pretentious drivel I've witnessed within some modern art museums.

the statue of david is a supreme expression of art, because it allows to see the human body in a very very distinct way. have you ever looked at the facial expression and the anatomic detail in it? all that done in a period where the naked human body was considered evil and sinful. just think of its social implications, in a period where religion dominated europe..
as far as your observations in modern art museums go, there is good art and bad art, but what has that got to do with reproductive interpretations of a partial world map with predefined outcome?

[Fat_ninja]

Savauge