Calling top of the bubble

[Mini2]

I don't see a major correction but if there was I do feel Rolex might manipulate the market somewhat and actual make these so called watches which are hard to get actual HARD TO GET to sure
People buy with confidence and if these things are not stable in price the speculators of the last 18/24months will shy away

[malba2366]

Rolex has no interest in propping up the grey market prices. They are interested in selling as many watches as they can through their dealer network.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by isgrb

One key datapoint that has been ignored in this thread so far is that Rolex themselves increased prices on SS models by ~10% and will likely continue to do so annually or at most every two years. MSRP on steel Daytonas will be north of $20k in a few years, what do you think the grey prices will be then? Raising prices is Rolex’s strategy/reaction to the last couple of years, leverage the demand to move into the ultra-luxury market and move far away from where they’ve historically been.

Just my 2 cents but there is no bubble, you’re just seeing the free market and wise corporate strategy working together.

Possible. If hype and trends move on Rolex could have a problem on their hands.


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[JR16]

Nah, it’s 2024 when we will see the bubble less bubbly .


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[TomLou]

Originally Posted by mml4

Rolex prices will drop when wearing a Daytona labels you as a fool for paying 3x MSRP. As the observer "smirk index" rises the price will come down.

Fools with money, do not worry about smirk indexes….these are just mere technicalities

[Ensign]

I’ve been following Rolex, at time casually, at other times seriously, since the mid 1990s and I never remember any real dip in prices. Prices have always gone up and availability has always gone down.

I think Rolex is some sort of “non fiat” currency now. Most guys don’t buy them to wear and bond with like in the old days. They speculate and invest.

[stockae92]

The market will decide if its the ceiling or not. As long as people are buying with higher and higher prices, prices will keep on rising.

Crazy? Yes, if you ask me. But the only way for the price to go down is the whole world decided its time to stop buying at this price. Period.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by Ensign

I’ve been following Rolex, at time casually, at other times seriously, since the mid 1990s and I never remember any real dip in prices. Prices have always gone up and availability has always gone down.

I think Rolex is some sort of “non fiat” currency now. Most guys don’t buy them to wear and bond with like in the old days. They speculate and invest.

Yeah and more people want and have the means to buy them as new markets have opened up world wide.
More people are buying and keeping multiple watches instead of the guy that used to buy one and wear it everyday

[Rori]

Read that Rolls-Royce sakes we’re up 41% in 2021 !


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[outdoors_guy]

Originally Posted by stockae92

The market will decide if its the ceiling or not. As long as people are buying with higher and higher prices, prices will keep on rising.

Crazy? Yes, if you ask me. But the only way for the price to go down is the whole world decided its time to stop buying at this price. Period.

That’s not really true that the whole world needs to stop buying. The market price can be driven by just a few people.

The market price is based on the transactions that are happening, which is only a fraction the population that currently owns or wants to own a given Rolex model. Liquidity problems affecting only a few sellers could halt price rises or drive down prices as they rush to recover cash. Think about amateur watch dealers out there who think anyone can make a fortune flipping watches but who might not have thought through the business in full. There are probably a lot of these people out there (unfortunately) There are probably also professional dealers who are also engaged is risky business practices. There is no stock exchange for watches, and we see only ask prices on websites and forums rather than strike prices, so a price softening is not something that we will see instantly, but eventuallly the whole market will figure it out.
.

[Horationelson]

Originally Posted by Horationelson

It just doesn't make sense anymore.

I was passing through a well known department store today and stopped by the Rolex boutique in there, where I have bought a few watches over the years. It wasn't just busy, it was buzzing. Husbands and wives, groups of friends, lone international buyers were all looking around to see what was in stock and get a glimpse of whatever exhibition models were on display. How it's been for at least the last 2-3 years.

But today really felt that bit more detached from the economic reality than it has done previously. Inflation is going to squeeze a lot of household finances, other than the 0.1%. It is going to dampen consumer spending. Not in watches immediately, because people still see them as an investment/safe haven but across several types of goods and service providers. And that downturn in business will have a further cyclical effect on household wealth and disposable income. I'm not forecasting an outright economic crash, but I think that a sufficient dose of reality will set in soon, which will certainly reverse some of the supply/pricing craziness that we have seen.

The bigger issue is that all of these grey dealers are holding hidden stock. Watchfinder UK has two Milgauss in stock (none blue). Watchfinder USA apparently doesn't have a single Milgauss in stock and only has two Daytonas. Really? Many have heard anecdotally that these and other dealers are sitting on double digits of these models, trying to restrict supply and distort demand even more. There is only so long that this can last in current market conditions. What's more, it's unprecedented for retailers to be sitting on such high levels of invisible stock. Yes stock is an asset on the balance sheet, but when it is being marked to a market value which your business's own practices are helping to keep artificially high, there is a real danger that when things go south, your business' asset value plummets and - guess what - not only do you have to sell more watches to bring cash through the door, but you have to lower the price.

I love my watches and Rolexes as much as everyone else on here, but I think 2022 is going to be the year that reality bites. For those who have one or several watches that they see as quasi-cash based on current market levels, I would exercise some caution. That is all.

[awu]

pretty spot on.

[Number3]

Get a lotto ticket Horatio!