When will second hand Rolex dealers get desperate?

[PhilAviate]

Originally Posted by Watchmanaz

I think the market is fine and grey dealers have adjusted to the market. They are in business to make a profit and i appreciate the fact they are here. If grey's didn't exist i would never be able to buy a Rolex here in Arizona because the AD here are horrible.

I recently bought a Rolex from a grey and paid a little more then others but it was basically brand new with stickers and the model i wanted.

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

[Fahoo Forays]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

Well if people weren’t willing to pay above msrp from the grey market, the people who actually want to buy and wear these watches would be the ones getting the call.

????????
There'd still be a wait, which is a dealbreaker for a mass-produced item, hyped into Veblen range or not.

Please bear in mind that some (most?) of the appeal of grey/used sellers is that neither Rolex nor anyone affiliated with Rolex gets to decide if and/or when you get a Rolex. Your money is always good enough for a grey, right then, right there, no XX-chromosome gifting of SAs, no checking in to see if Fetch has happ- uh, if a watch has come in that bigger spenders don't want, etc.

Grey/used means you don't get turned off by the brand because you don't ever have to encounter anyone even remotely associated with the brand. How much better can it get?

[amh]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

Well greys used to provide a 15% discount over the AD back in the day... everyone loved them.

[Wrathchild]

History shows highs and lows throughout the eras.
Give it a few decades, could be completely backwards like it was in 1990

[173rdabn]

Patience will pay off eventually.

[PhilAviate]

Originally Posted by amh

Well greys used to provide a 15% discount over the AD back in the day... everyone loved them.

Yes, but they also weren't snapping the entire inventory up through the back door of the AD.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

Yes, but they also weren't snapping the entire inventory up through the back door of the AD.

yes they were? how do you think they were selling brand new watches for 15-20% off with stickers on. ADs were offloading stock to them back then, these days it's mostly people buying and flipping for an easy thousand bucks or more. you'd be surprised how many people would call a grey right after they receive the call from an AD when it was paying off

[PhilAviate]

Originally Posted by huncho

yes they were? how do you think they were selling brand new watches for 15-20% off with stickers on. ADs were offloading stock to them back then, these days it's mostly people buying and flipping for an easy thousand bucks or more. you'd be surprised how many people would call a grey right after they receive the call from an AD when it was paying off

Notice the word, entire. They were only taking the stuff that wasn't moving, and leaving plenty behind for any walk in customers. Hence why it was discounted.

Now they are artificially constraining supply to create an illusion of scarcity to keep the hype market going long past its natural end.


I'm happy that this nonsense is clearly dying soon and people who just love watches will be easily buying again soon.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

Notice the word, entire. They were only taking the stuff that wasn't moving, and leaving plenty behind for any walk in customers. Hence why it was discounted.

Now they are artificially constraining supply to create an illusion of scarcity to keep the hype market going long past its natural end.


I'm happy that this nonsense is clearly dying soon and people who just love watches will be easily buying again soon.

there are pictures on here from before 2016 with AD cases full of every watch possible. "stuff that wasn't moving" included the steel watches everyone now wants, so it's not really difficult to leave stuff for walk ins when cases are full and is also why you could get similar discounts at ADs

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

And why would they disappear? Magic? If there is a market, people will fill it. Personally I much prefer dealing with quality resellers than AD’s. I can get any watch I want at market price (higher or lower than MSRP - which I consider meaningless) in a day.

[Bartolo]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

The math makes no sense to me. Why would an AD sell an in-demand piece to a gray dealer when they could sell it for full MSRP to a retail customer? Unless they are selling it for over msrp, which in December 2023 could apply to steel Daytonas and not much more.

[Onikage]

I can't picture a desperate pre owned Rolex dealer myself.. I've been out of the buying game since long before covid so I have no idea. The market and economic circumstances will differ here in the uk but I'm enjoying the read. *and selling, I'm out. Me no sell.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think the used watch market is doing fine. They stay ahead of the market and pay less when market conditions dictate. The people who are hurt by the softening used market are only those folks who need to sell their watches now. Market softens, they get less money. Simple as that. Dealers do fine no matter what the prices do.

I think they are hurting.

Try offering a SS piece to them and see how much they offer relative to the same model (sometimes older) they have listed.

Takuya in particular has Kermits listed for 15K+ but will only offer 12k on buys which is basically MSRP + tax …

Good riddance


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[superpop]

These are mass produced fashion baubles that are subject to the whims of the fashion market which tends to be very volatile. Rolex may think they can control this, but they cannot. Supply and demand always wins. I remember ages ago when the hockey puck sized Breitlings were all the rage, same with Panerai. Now it is customary to get 25% off on a Breitling if you ask the right AD. The days of watches being an investment are over, same with most cars. The bigger concern for Rolex should be how they have alienated there core base of customers with all of these games and lack of channel control we have seen over the past few years. That coupled with the surge of digital watches could become a major problem for them right as they are gearing up new factories to produce even more mass produced fashion baubles. The other stigma that is now out there is the very real possibility that you may get mugged for your watch as it is widely known by the street toughs what these watches are worth at a pawn shop. Bringing back the stolen watch registry might show that Rolex actually does care about this. YMMV.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

You think that most of the million+ watches that Rolex produces each year are ending up in the hands of secondary dealers? (In other words, several billion dollars of store stock.)

[Mystro]

The free market always wins. It’s finds a way and adapts faster in accommodating the highest paying buyer every time. This “we all stick together we can win” is fantasy propaganda from failed economics of the past. Rolex themself is killing their own small family dealerships everywhere. It only fuels the secondary market even more by loosing accessibility to their products.

Not to be too blunt but, Rolex is a ruthless alpha killer in the way they do business and if you can’t recognize that or at least appreciate how they have positioned themself then you may be missing some appeal of the brand beyond the watches.
Rolex controls every aspect of their destiny and always have. It’s about protecting the brand long-term. They are the “king” for a reason well beyond their products.
The only one single factor you need to pass blame or point your finger at if you don’t like the way you have to buy a Rolex is Rolex.

There are lots of other great luxury brands of watches you can easily buy, try on and even get a great luxury experience when purchasing with free swag as you leave.

[1st amg]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

Well if people weren’t willing to pay above msrp from the grey market, the people who actually want to buy and wear these watches would be the ones getting the call.

People don’t have the patience or ability to delay gratification to make that work so we will likely keep seeing current year “new” Rolexes for sale at your favorite trusted grey dealer in the near future.

That’s what people want. If you are contributing to this problem, then you have no business complaining about not being able to purchase from an AD.


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Not complaining at all. I simply want a new Rolex at times and I get no respect from previous business, so I put my hard earned money with a grey, pay a bit more and have it tomorrow. I don’t have to spend thousands to the crooked AD and be coerced in buying jewelry or watches I don't want. How is this better? It's the AD who is contributing to the problem. Its a free market


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[lmcgbaj]

IMO the prices are still extremely high. Patience will pay off.

[bluestreak]

If an AD put all their steel Subs, GMTs, Daytonas, Skydwellers, Explorers, and Air Kings and OPs in the case and offered them for sale at MSRP, how long would it take them to sell out? A day? Certainly not more than a week. As long as that’s still the case grey dealers aren’t going to be “desperate”

[Watchmanaz]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

They are horrible because most of the supply is ending up in the hands of the grey dealers.
Things were infinitely better before the greys could take new in box pieces and flip them for profit out the back door of the AD.

If greys disappeared you'd have no problem buying whatever you wanted from your local AD, just like it was the last 50+ years before this situation.

I disagree. In Arizona I have been to the AD and they want you to buy other items and do what they want you to do. Yeah I don’t spend my money except my way and I’m certainly not having some guy who sells jewelry for a living bossing me around.

The AD created the grey market with their snobbish ways so grey it is. Doesn’t matter to me if I get new from dealer or grey. It’s only money and my motto is I’ll make more tomorrow.


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[Watchmanaz]

Originally Posted by lmcgbaj

IMO the prices are still extremely high. Patience will pay off.

If you can’t afford a few extra bucks then a different watch brand is for you. Rolex watch is a luxury as I see it and I’m not in it for the resale.


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[Rori]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Rolex prices have come down off their highs, but still way way above pre covid prices.

Dealers with physical stores in the jewelry districts around the country are dead with very little traffic. Moda has fewer and fewer reference checks for potential deals. Online dealers don't want to buy stock, and if they do the offers are laughable. Yet prices are staying firm.

DavidSW prices are extremely high. Takuya, SohAIS and the rest are keeping their prices high too. I don't see any deals in a market that has screeched to a halt.

I don't think we are going to see below retail pricing, but certainly pre covid pricing or near that is in the cards. What is it going to take for prices to reflect this slow watch market?

It takes us stopping buying from them

[bluestreak]

So many people that don’t understand basic economics.

Also so many people that don’t understand basic human behavior.

Everyone here bemoaning the evil ADs would behave in the exact same way if they were selling something where demand wildly exceeded supply.

[bluestreak]

Originally Posted by Watchmanaz

I disagree. In Arizona I have been to the AD and they want you to buy other items and do what they want you to do. Yeah I don’t spend my money except my way and I’m certainly not having some guy who sells jewelry for a living bossing me around.

The AD created the grey market with their snobbish ways so grey it is. Doesn’t matter to me if I get new from dealer or grey. It’s only money and my motto is I’ll make more tomorrow.


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“Bossing you around”? lol

The entitlement on these threads is amazing.

The ADs didn’t create the grey market. The sole thing that created it is a price ceiling that’s different than market value. Greys would go away tomorrow if ADs could charge whatever they wanted.

Imagining that “AD snobbishness” is what started this is pure fan fiction dreamed up by people upset they can’t get a luxury watch.

[thenewrick]

Lots of drama here. It’s just a downtrend. Lots are still buying as investments thinking it’ll go back up. I think things will slow down a little bit more then plateau.

I feel bad for the really good small Rolex ADs losing their status but there’s a lot of stories of bundling and pre purchasing and selling to flippers and Greys.

I really think people just need to revisit how they deal with their AD and sales associates. I haven’t had any problems getting the references I wanted. I would only consider buying from a preowned watch dealer when it comes to vintage models.

[njlam]

Originally Posted by Rori

It takes us stopping buying from them

No, it takes the ADs to stop backdooring their inventory to them (and sharing the profits).

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I think they are hurting.

Try offering a SS piece to them and see how much they offer relative to the same model (sometimes older) they have listed.

Takuya in particular has Kermits listed for 15K+ but will only offer 12k on buys which is basically MSRP + tax …

Good riddance


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I agree but this also supports that they just pay less when the market dynamics change. We will never know what this vendor paid for the inventory he has listed, but a 3K margin on a 15K item for sale sounds pretty reasonable to me. Used watch selling is a business not a charity.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

So many victims here. “Fan fiction” mixed with conspiracy theories and magical thinking, all to explain the free market.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Bartolo

The math makes no sense to me. Why would an AD sell an in-demand piece to a gray dealer when they could sell it for full MSRP to a retail customer? Unless they are selling it for over msrp, which in December 2023 could apply to steel Daytonas and not much more.

The notion that ADs are selling everything out their backdoor to grays is in my opinion an internet fiction. People confuse the used watch market with a real gray market. People see a lot of watches listed for sale online but fail to realize many of these are up to a few years old and still are being listed as "unworn." Rolex sells a million watches per year. The total inventory available online pales compared to the volume of new watches sold to the public each year by ADs. It is just more visible and immediately available at a price whereas, it is not so at ADs. The watch market has changed everybody now is a collector. Everybody wants the coveted watches so they buy whatever they can get their hands on to stay in an AD's good graces. Bottom line many people just don't need or want all the watches they are buying, and they can easily re-sell them to used watch dealers. I just listened to a huge used watch dealer on YouTube who said they get calls all the time from people being offered a watch and want to know what they can flip it for to them before they buy.

It is a messed-up market, but I still think the watch companies caused a lot it with promoting the "collecting" of their products, limiting the production of models to create hyped up demand and then only offering those pieces to folks who have to play the game of buying multiple watches to be considered for an allocation of those models.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by njlam

No, it takes the ADs to stop backdooring their inventory to them (and sharing the profits).

Prove it. Daily threads about “back dooring” but never any tangible evidence. Folks alway lament “so many new watches for sale at greys” when exponentially more were quietly delivered by the AD to their valued clients.