Is interest in AP sinking?

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Yes, you can use value retention as a means for the sake of your argument. It works if you only use it to address the OP's original question. You also shouldn't only use ROO/CODE as the sole barometer of the brands health. You are skewing the data and it does not paint a complete picture.

The issue is when you brought in another brand, PP (sport watches only) and used it for comparison. That is where your logic is misguided. Once you bring other brands into play, you have to apply the same metric across those brands and across all model lines, not just Nautilus/Aqua and ask the same question. Is interest in Rolex and PP sinking too? Then the answer is, YES. Interest in all of those brands are sinking if you're using value retention as the metric. Please remember, the OP's question was addressed as AP as a brand and not specific model lines. Where your argument fails is you frame it like AP is the only brand with sinking interest in that comparison only using specific model lines.

My argument works even if u just use RO models vs any and all PP sports models.. the reason to introduce ROO and CODE as they are sports models as well and not sure why would u exclude them? I am including Aquanaut of PP which is arguably less desirable model than Nautilus.

The only reason I exclude non sports watches from comparison as AP doesn’t make any so I am not sure what to compare PP non sports models too. If one assume CODE is non sports model, PP non sports retain much higher percentage of value…

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by vliberman

That is actually not true… most AP RO models trade close to MSRP, none PP sports models are… they trade at significant premium and hence the argument

Exactly.


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by vliberman

My argument works even if u just use RO models vs any and all PP sports models.. the reason to introduce ROO and CODE as they are sports models as well and not sure why would u exclude them? I am including Aquanaut of PP which is arguably less desirable model than Nautilus.

The only reason I exclude non sports watches from comparison as AP doesn’t make any so I am not sure what to compare PP non sports models too. If one assume CODE is non sports model, PP non sports retain much higher percentage of value…

let's us know if you need help getting out of the knots you're tying yourself into.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by vliberman

My argument works even if u just use RO models vs any and all PP sports models.. the reason to introduce ROO and CODE as they are sports models as well and not sure why would u exclude them? I am including Aquanaut of PP which is arguably less desirable model than Nautilus.

The only reason I exclude non sports watches from comparison as AP doesn’t make any so I am not sure what to compare PP non sports models too. If one assume CODE is non sports model, PP non sports retain much higher percentage of value…

Never mind. I think I'd rather go talk to the wall instead now.

[Henrimontgomery]

My last experience with AP was a bad one; a defective watch that got water intrusion, and AP admitting it was due to a poorly fitted seal.

But it made me think a lot about the brand. If at that price point,QC is below what other brands churning out metal in shape of watches out of an automated factory, why I am giving them the premium they ask?

But despite this, I still think the brand has tons of qualities, and not much can come close in term of wow factor. Though recent collabs really were dubious.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Never mind. I think I'd rather go talk to the wall instead now.

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Never mind. I think I'd rather go talk to the wall instead now.

I am sure you are used to that sort of interaction

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

let's us know if you need help getting out of the knots you're tying yourself into.

Rather than counter an argument u use some sort of heuristic to dismiss it.. go join MickyMouseD at the wall…

[APhound]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Never mind. I think I'd rather go talk to the wall instead now.

Haha. Way to wrap this up. I’ll see you guys there. Jeez


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[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by vliberman

Rather than counter an argument u use some sort of heuristic to dismiss it.. go join MickyMouseD at the wall…

Uh... it's Mickdy, not Micky Mouse D. You couldn't even get that right?

Originally Posted by APhound

Haha. Way to wrap this up. I’ll see you guys there. Jeez


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look for the Logic room. We'll be at the Common Sense corner.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by vliberman

. go join MickyMouseD at the wall…

Will do, sounds like the place to be.

[crispyness87]

Originally Posted by vliberman

The value retention debate is the only way one can establish whether the “interest in AP is sinking”, the original point of this debate which u seem to forget. The null hypothesis is it is not. If not, then value of all comparable watches made by comparable companies are in decline. Take PP, take their spots models and one rejects null hypothesis. Now do u understand?????

On a person note, if u read carefully, most people here who speak harshly of AP don’t dislike it, including myself. I own its product. What most people dislike is the direction the company took including lack of horological strength! Now, it is our duty wrt other collectors to inform them of our opinions no matter how much that offends you!!

Second, I never came at you personally yet you have. You speak on my behalf when u infer on my behalf, that is not cool. I can do that myself in my broken English.

This issue of cherry picking (which is what you're doing) variables to determine value is that you're disregarding a multitude of factors (power to you). Normally these exercises would result in takeaways that are not untrue but also kind of not meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

One example of factors you're disregarding is the journey needed to get ROs/Naut/Aquas. I've seen people drop serious dough (and take massive hits) to get allocated an aqua/naut; hardly any value i see in those trades when i do the sums. As for AP, a non-minority amount of people can get ROs as piece #1 or 2; they'll be breakeven / in the money a quicker.

Another example is that for Patek, the reality is (intentionally or unintentionally from the brand) sports watches are a 'prize' allocated to people who have decent spend buying dress watches (the majority of Patek's catalogue). PP's sports watches are kept to small % of supply, despite us clearly living in an era where sports watches are the most desirable. AP's strategy completely syncs up with today's wants as evident in ROs being the majority of their portfolio. There is still 'prizes' allocated to AP's VIPs though, eg openworks, ceramics etc. If you truly want to compare the brands and do an accurate/comprehensive study on this, I would implore you to do a proper apples-to-apples comparison. Even if you want to restrict your exercise to just sports watches (incomplete imho but whatever), compare the 'prizes' between the brands, and compare the 'non-prizes'; don't take the easy way out. Example, compare the highest end ROs (i.e. 'prizes') that get allocated to VIPs (eg. ceramic doublebalance/skele perp etc.) with the highest end Naut (probably 5740?), there is a clear winner to me (maybe not to you...). And then work your way down from there and see if anything changes. Your study might end up skewing to Patek (which is the rhetoric you're fervently pushing), and if that's the case at least I can say "agree to disagree, but I can't deny you've done the proper analysis".

Separately, yes AP interest is sinking, but that's systemic across the industry. I debated between a 15202st and 5712/a in Aug'21, and went for the 5712/a. Regardless, either of those options would put be under roughly the same % at today's prices... and I bought these in the SG grey market which is highly transparent and efficient.

Lastly, not trying to be a delusional supporter of AP, but I never really get people that say AP lacks horological strength... like have they ever heard of RD#3? Fitting a damn tourby into a case that small for ladies? Bravo, my wife is going to blow a chunk of my networth on that piece! Or RD #4? I'm sorry, but not every horological achievement has to be done in a dress watch case with leather strap...

[vliberman]

Originally Posted by crispyness87

This issue of cherry picking (which is what you're doing) variables to determine value is that you're disregarding a multitude of factors (power to you). Normally these exercises would result in takeaways that are not untrue but also kind of not meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

One example of factors you're disregarding is the journey needed to get ROs/Naut/Aquas. I've seen people drop serious dough (and take massive hits) to get allocated an aqua/naut; hardly any value i see in those trades when i do the sums. As for AP, a non-minority amount of people can get ROs as piece #1 or 2; they'll be breakeven / in the money a quicker.

Another example is that for Patek, the reality is (intentionally or unintentionally from the brand) sports watches are a 'prize' allocated to people who have decent spend buying dress watches (the majority of Patek's catalogue). PP's sports watches are kept to small % of supply, despite us clearly living in an era where sports watches are the most desirable. AP's strategy completely syncs up with today's wants as evident in ROs being the majority of their portfolio. There is still 'prizes' allocated to AP's VIPs though, eg openworks, ceramics etc. If you truly want to compare the brands and do an accurate/comprehensive study on this, I would implore you to do a proper apples-to-apples comparison. Even if you want to restrict your exercise to just sports watches (incomplete imho but whatever), compare the 'prizes' between the brands, and compare the 'non-prizes'; don't take the easy way out. Example, compare the highest end ROs (i.e. 'prizes') that get allocated to VIPs (eg. ceramic doublebalance/skele perp etc.) with the highest end Naut (probably 5740?), there is a clear winner to me (maybe not to you...). And then work your way down from there and see if anything changes. Your study might end up skewing to Patek (which is the rhetoric you're fervently pushing), and if that's the case at least I can say "agree to disagree, but I can't deny you've done the proper analysis".

Separately, yes AP interest is sinking, but that's systemic across the industry. I debated between a 15202st and 5712/a in Aug'21, and went for the 5712/a. Regardless, either of those options would put be under roughly the same % at today's prices... and I bought these in the SG grey market which is highly transparent and efficient.

Lastly, not trying to be a delusional supporter of AP, but I never really get people that say AP lacks horological strength... like have they ever heard of RD#3? Fitting a damn tourby into a case that small for ladies? Bravo, my wife is going to blow a chunk of my networth on that piece! Or RD #4? I'm sorry, but not every horological achievement has to be done in a dress watch case with leather strap...

I appreciate the thoughtful analysis and response…you are making many valid points that I shell spend some time pondering.. at the first go thru, very logical and reasonable…thank u again!

[crispyness87]

Originally Posted by vliberman

I appreciate the thoughtful analysis and response…you are making many valid points that I shell spend some time pondering.. at the first go thru, very logical and reasonable…thank u again!

Cheers dude.

[robertengel]

A, General decrease in appetite for watches - Patek, AP, Rolex for sure, its not longer guaranteed return, the rest of the brands that were pulled up with it are also not desirable like they were before (special edition omega for example). In part caused by watch bubble burst and economic slowdown

B, Language is dangerous, a sinking ship implies doom, a drop makes it seem sudden and uncomfortable. A steady downward adjustment of secondary market prices doesn't sound as bombastic but is way more accurate.

C, Taking chrono24 prices to mark the top of the market then more conservative tools to measure the bottom creates a increased delta illusion through different methodology.

D, The price of a watch was never meant to double once removed from the AD, that is not their fault nor their achievement, that is people like us doing stupid stuff. As long as the AD sells at or around list price the brand is doing fine.

So short answer yes it's decreasing, but so is everything, all brands have QA issues, the more they make the more they will have, everyone has a horror story. I had an issue with AP service but they fixed it, no big whoop.

[AK797]

I am sorry to read of people being turned off AP due to customer service and atmosphere in ADs now, but that is also true of Rolex and PP, altho as AP were famed for higher customer relations that is a real negative... after all we used to even play table tennis at London House.

As for them overpricing, well most firms take advantage of bull markets, and in terms of pricing I remember two incidents that caused scandals and a large number of WIS declaring they would never buy from the brand again etc -

These were the AP RG 44, then the still new shiny hot AP, being cut, yes cut in retail price and causing new buyers at the higher retail to be outraged. Later AP did offer to make up the difference after much uproar.

And the WG Pepsi being made in SS with almost no change visually thus inciting the wrath of WG buyers who felt they had been played into buying something no longer exclusive at a much higher price.

In both cases both models and both brands recovered pretty quickly and when markets started to rise this was all forgotten, and I'm sure the same will happen again with the next bull market.

[WatchingAustin]

My biggest issue with AP is that their biggest customers are lined up for a rapper collab watch or a Spider man. I am not going to put up with dealer games and spend millions to earn the opportunity for a watch with a cartoon character on it. AP is a Royal Oak company, and the Code 1159 and collab watches are only hurting them.

[APhound]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

My biggest issue with AP is that their biggest customers are lined up for a rapper collab watch or a Spider man. I am not going to put up with dealer games and spend millions to earn the opportunity for a watch with a cartoon character on it. AP is a Royal Oak company, and the Code 1159 and collab watches are only hurting them.

Why is it a big issue for you what other customers are interested in? I honestly don’t understand that..
If you say their biggest customers are lining up to buy these collabs why do you also think that is hurting them?
I’m not trying to argue or anything I just don’t get where you’re coming from.


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

My biggest issue with AP is that their biggest customers are lined up for a rapper collab watch or a Spider man. I am not going to put up with dealer games and spend millions to earn the opportunity for a watch with a cartoon character on it. AP is a Royal Oak company, and the Code 1159 and collab watches are only hurting them.

not sure what you mean here, their top clients (celebs and athletes) are mostly seen wearing exclusive jumbo models, skeletons, ceramics, tourbillons or gem set/rainbow variations. there are tons of amazing watches you can be allocated as a VVIP, how do you just come to the conclusion that it's those 2?

[messikens]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

My biggest issue with AP is that their biggest customers are lined up for a rapper collab watch or a Spider man. I am not going to put up with dealer games and spend millions to earn the opportunity for a watch with a cartoon character on it. AP is a Royal Oak company, and the Code 1159 and collab watches are only hurting them.

Sorry so say but that comment makes zero sense...

The catalogue is amazingly deep and broad, so I'm sure you'd find another amazing watch (tourb / repeater / exotic material / gem set) without having to go for a cartoon character...

And so what if LeBron or Marky Mark gets one because they like it AND have the connections to get it AND can afford it...?

I'd question if you're in the same league, so why be angry about it?

[Rmoor]

I’m just here for the comments 😂 but on a serious note, interest in AP is sinking when I actually get a call from the boutique for an offshore that I already purchased from the grey market haha

[WatchingAustin]

Originally Posted by APhound

Why is it a big issue for you what other customers are interested in? I honestly don’t understand that..
If you say their biggest customers are lining up to buy these collabs why do you also think that is hurting them?
I’m not trying to argue or anything I just don’t get where you’re coming from.


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Sorry, I meant for it to be funny. I don't care what people like or spend money on. I made the comment to be a distillation of the reason I think AP is faltering as a brand currently. I should have said things more literally.

AP as a brand is not very interesting to me (maybe others?), because their end game watch portfolio is not that strong. They seem to be forgoing ultra complicated movements and instead are making pop culture collab watches as their end game collector watches. AP has limited case designs (currently 4?), and their most coveted watches are low to no complications. They have 3 GMT's in their current catalog. Additionally, the normal wealthy buyer is getting fatigued with the buying 'journey' and losing interest in a Royal Oak by having 3 CODEs be the prerequisite.

If someone were new and wanted to invest in a brand and reach the highest level, AP doesn't seem to have much payoff by way of diversity or truly high-end watchmaking. If you wanted a gemset watch, there are better ones out. If you wanted a tourbillion, they have multi-axis ones now. Unless you love Marvel or having a bunch of hexagonal bezels in the watch box, why focus on AP?

AP built a brand off a Gerald Genta's classic design but now they are mismanaging that, and I think that is why there is a slight decrease in the brand perception.

Just my 2 cents.

[srvrf]

One other thing that is not unique to AP, is that with brands want you to "take a journey" with them, and even the deepest pocket have limits. I like multiple brands but can't afford to take a journey with everyone. Since I have two ROCs and a ROO, there are only a few APs currently produced that interest me (Starwheel, Jumbo) - arguably the two of the most sought after pieces.

But I'm not as interested in Patek either. I've got a Nautilus and Aquanaut. A couple years ago they cut my AD from their network so I have no interest in starting over.

[APhound]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

Sorry, I meant for it to be funny. I don't care what people like or spend money on. I made the comment to be a distillation of the reason I think AP is faltering as a brand currently. I should have said things more literally.

AP as a brand is not very interesting to me (maybe others?), because their end game watch portfolio is not that strong. They seem to be forgoing ultra complicated movements and instead are making pop culture collab watches as their end game collector watches. AP has limited case designs (currently 4?), and their most coveted watches are low to no complications. They have 3 GMT's in their current catalog. Additionally, the normal wealthy buyer is getting fatigued with the buying 'journey' and losing interest in a Royal Oak by having 3 CODEs be the prerequisite.

If someone were new and wanted to invest in a brand and reach the highest level, AP doesn't seem to have much payoff by way of diversity or truly high-end watchmaking. If you wanted a gemset watch, there are better ones out. If you wanted a tourbillion, they have multi-axis ones now. Unless you love Marvel or having a bunch of hexagonal bezels in the watch box, why focus on AP?

AP built a brand off a Gerald Genta's classic design but now they are mismanaging that, and I think that is why there is a slight decrease in the brand perception.

Just my 2 cents.

Minute repeaters, perpetuals, tourbillons, openworks, etc.. what kind of complications are you looking for?
Have you been on their site ? Mind blowing stuff- my opinion.


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[gretch6364]

Last time I was at a PP shop...they were taking phone calls mid-conversation with me.

[APman3000]

I love AP and have purchased five watches, four from the boutique or AP House and one grey. But my local boutique is probably the worst one in the U.S. and I am so put off by my treatment there that I am no longer interested in working with them. I know there are many others who have vowed the same after dealing with this boutique. And I'm certain there will be other eager buyers who will replace me and the others, so I know it isn't going to make much of a difference for them and I'm not claiming that it will. But I find it really disappointing how AP, and this boutique in particular, treat established, enthusiastic customers and completely turn them off the brand.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

Sorry, I meant for it to be funny. I don't care what people like or spend money on. I made the comment to be a distillation of the reason I think AP is faltering as a brand currently. I should have said things more literally.

AP as a brand is not very interesting to me (maybe others?), because their end game watch portfolio is not that strong. They seem to be forgoing ultra complicated movements and instead are making pop culture collab watches as their end game collector watches. AP has limited case designs (currently 4?), and their most coveted watches are low to no complications. They have 3 GMT's in their current catalog. Additionally, the normal wealthy buyer is getting fatigued with the buying 'journey' and losing interest in a Royal Oak by having 3 CODEs be the prerequisite.

If someone were new and wanted to invest in a brand and reach the highest level, AP doesn't seem to have much payoff by way of diversity or truly high-end watchmaking. If you wanted a gemset watch, there are better ones out. If you wanted a tourbillion, they have multi-axis ones now. Unless you love Marvel or having a bunch of hexagonal bezels in the watch box, why focus on AP?

AP built a brand off a Gerald Genta's classic design but now they are mismanaging that, and I think that is why there is a slight decrease in the brand perception.

Just my 2 cents.

I can't take the rest of your post seriously when you say stuff like this. Foregoing complicated watches?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by APman3000

I love AP and have purchased five watches, four from the boutique or AP House and one grey. But my local boutique is probably the worst one in the U.S. and I am so put off by my treatment there that I am no longer interested in working with them. I know there are many others who have vowed the same after dealing with this boutique. And I'm certain there will be other eager buyers who will replace me and the others, so I know it isn't going to make much of a difference for them and I'm not claiming that it will. But I find it really disappointing how AP, and this boutique in particular, treat established, enthusiastic customers and completely turn them off the brand.

Perfectly fair criticism and completely understand.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

Sorry, I meant for it to be funny. I don't care what people like or spend money on. I made the comment to be a distillation of the reason I think AP is faltering as a brand currently. I should have said things more literally.

AP as a brand is not very interesting to me (maybe others?), because their end game watch portfolio is not that strong. They seem to be forgoing ultra complicated movements and instead are making pop culture collab watches as their end game collector watches. AP has limited case designs (currently 4?), and their most coveted watches are low to no complications. They have 3 GMT's in their current catalog. Additionally, the normal wealthy buyer is getting fatigued with the buying 'journey' and losing interest in a Royal Oak by having 3 CODEs be the prerequisite.

If someone were new and wanted to invest in a brand and reach the highest level, AP doesn't seem to have much payoff by way of diversity or truly high-end watchmaking. If you wanted a gemset watch, there are better ones out. If you wanted a tourbillion, they have multi-axis ones now. Unless you love Marvel or having a bunch of hexagonal bezels in the watch box, why focus on AP?

AP built a brand off a Gerald Genta's classic design but now they are mismanaging that, and I think that is why there is a slight decrease in the brand perception.

Just my 2 cents.

You're totally right - no interesting watches in the catalogue at all....

Oh wait:
1. Ultra- complication

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...D002CR.02.html

2. Grand sonnerie

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...D002KB.01.html

3. Gem set tourbillon

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1320BC.01.html

4. Open worked tourb

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1320SG.01.html

5. Perp calendar open worked in ceramic

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1225CE.01.html

My bad....

[WatchingAustin]

Originally Posted by messikens

You're totally right - no interesting watches in the catalogue at all....

Oh wait:
1. Ultra- complication

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...D002CR.02.html

2. Grand sonnerie

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...D002KB.01.html

3. Gem set tourbillon

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1320BC.01.html

4. Open worked tourb

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1320SG.01.html

5. Perp calendar open worked in ceramic

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...1225CE.01.html

My bad....

Sweet two Code's and 3 Royal Oaks. You are kind of proving my point about the same case shape across their watch line up.