Talking Stocks 2.0

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by superdog

Are you sure about the audited financials?

That is extremely expensive. I just did reviewed financials. That’s a step below audited. And that was expensive.

Apparently they said audited financials are significantly more.

I doubt the majority of the companies needing these loans can afford it. Or have them. And if they don’t have them, it’ll take months to get them.

I can attest to this ... when I sold my company the buyer insisted on audited financial statements until he saw the price.

They eventually agreed to have their own firm review our notice to reader reports instead.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why...35-51585169263

Beware the bull trap...

"In a note to clients on Wednesday, TS Lombard strategists said the market has more room to fall, citing expectations that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 could fall roughly 30%. That decline, and the effects of the economic slump they see, put the fair value of the S&P 500 closer to 1600 to 1800, down as much as 35% from the closing level of 2475.56 on Wednesday."

I pulled out right before 2 on anything that was green.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why...35-51585169263

Beware the bull trap...

"In a note to clients on Wednesday, TS Lombard strategists said the market has more room to fall, citing expectations that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 could fall roughly 30%. That decline, and the effects of the economic slump they see, put the fair value of the S&P 500 closer to 1600 to 1800, down as much as 35% from the closing level of 2475.56 on Wednesday."

I agree with the premise just not the downside target. I see this as an absolute worst case scenario.

For the moment, I am keeping trades tight with stops and taking profits where I can to either average down or enter new value. And I still believe that the markets will be higher in a year from now.

It is very hard to have the discipline needed to look ahead but that is what this takes. Are we going lower? Perhaps. How much lower are you willing to wait for?

This is a ‘once in a lifetime’ buying opportunity like ’87 and ’08, says Ariel’s John Rogers

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/this...hn-rogers.html

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree with the premise just not the downside target. I see this as an absolute worst case scenario.

For the moment, I am keeping trades tight with stops and taking profits where I can to either average down or enter new value. And I still believe that the markets will be higher in a year from now.

I'm trying to follow this exactly but this is the hardest part: knowing what point to take the profits. Some of the green % this week are spectacular.
Hugely appreciate your input (and acknowledge it is not advice).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm trying to follow this exactly but this is the hardest part: knowing what point to take the profits. Some of the green % this week are spectacular.
Hugely appreciate your input (and acknowledge it is not advice).

Thanks

I set stop/limit orders and let the machines remove the decision for me. Not ideal but I would rather leave money on the table rather than take back less.

[GB-man]

Who wants to play guess the jobs number?

I’ll hazard 2.8 M

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree with the premise just not the downside target. I see this as an absolute worst case scenario.

For the moment, I am keeping trades tight with stops and taking profits where I can to either average down or enter new value. And I still believe that the markets will be higher in a year from now.

It is very hard to have the discipline needed to look ahead but that is what this takes. Are we going lower? Perhaps. How much lower are you willing to wait for?



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/this...hn-rogers.html

Concur - I've put 40% of my allotted in last week and Monday (phew!), and have 60% left. 50% of that I'm waiting to see what happens Q2, but I do have 10% on the ready for today / tomorrow (next week?), which I will increase if we have an absolute bloodbath.

[77T]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Who wants to play guess the jobs number?

I’ll hazard 2.8 M

That is a hard one. Many employers told their employees that a 2-week furlough isn’t a triggering event and declined filing. They gave flex time and vacation options.

1. If they can count each and every teacher, restaurant, store, and mall then it might be much higher. We will have to hear the sector details. There are over 3 million teachers in US.

2. But I believe most companies held their filings until this week. And so did schools. Most were only closing (originally) until April 6th. So I think they won’t be in the numbers.

I’ll have a go at 4.6 for #1
But .8 for #2


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Naples09]

3.28 for the win.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Naples09

3.28 for the win.

Insane.

[Naples09]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Insane.

Yes it is. Saw the street had predictions from 1.5 to 3.5. Seems like most were unsure how many would claim this early?


My thought is either many claimed early or this will be much worse going forward.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Insane.

Not really, priced in as the futures did not go below yesterdays open and are already off their lows

Not to sound unsympathetic, trying to remain focused and dispassionate about my investments. I feel badly for anyone and everyone who is either sick or out of a job.

This was known so no one should be surprised. In addition we are getting seasonal factors as well with holiday employment rolling off.

This does nothing to change my long term view and on weakness I will be buying again.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by 77T

That is a hard one. Many employers told their employees that a 2-week furlough isn’t a triggering event and declined filing. They gave flex time and vacation options.

1. If they can count each and every teacher, restaurant, store, and mall then it might be much higher. We will have to hear the sector details. There are over 3 million teachers in US.

2. But I believe most companies held their filings until this week. And so did schools. Most were only closing (originally) until April 6th. So I think they won’t be in the numbers.

I’ll have a go at 4.6 for #1
But .8 for #2


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Teachers are being paid along with support staff in my town without having to use pto-source-brother and sister are employees

Does anyone know how the small buisiness loans will be applied for? The standard disaster relief on ones state website?

steve

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not really, priced in as the futures did not go below yesterdays open.

Not to sound unsympathetic, trying to remain focused and dispassionate about my investments. I feel badly for anyone and everyone who is either sick or out of a job.

This was known so no one should be surprised. In addition we are getting seasonal factors as well with holiday employment rolling off.

This does nothing to change my long term view and on weakness I will be buying again.

I'll be buying as well, but just to see that number...

[healer]

Buying the dip today.tesla,Amazon,Facebook,Microsoft,Boeing I already set my mind on anything 3-5 percent less I’m buying;) it’s gonna be fun today;)

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I feel badly for anyone and everyone who is either sick or out of a job.

Me too. I suspect that this unemployment figure, as noted by others, way understates what is really going on. I'm not claiming a conspiracy, just saying that there's going to be a lot more hurt before it gets better.

How the market reacts to this is the big question. Is it all anticipated, or will people presume that the $2T relief bill won't make a big enough difference? So hard to predict...

[JParm]

Originally Posted by healer

Buying the dip today.tesla,Amazon,Facebook,Microsoft,Boeing I already set my mind on anything 3-5 percent less I’m buying;) it’s gonna be fun today;)

Don't forget DIS and NKE. Also looking at HON, BUD and GOOGL.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

How the market reacts to this is the big question. Is it all anticipated, or will people presume that the $2T relief bill won't make a big enough difference? So hard to predict...

Agreed which is why I try to stay focused on what is in front of me.

The markets knew the number was bad, it was. The markets are down over 30%. Companies are working through this one day at a time. Liquidity is high, markets are functioning and the panic seems to have eased.

I am looking at value opportunities and keeping trades tight. I have executed 28 trades in the last 30 days which is a lot of trades for me. This is the only strategy I see to try and preserve and rebuild my portfolio.

I have been rebalancing and averaging down.

[superdog]

I’m encouraged on how the markets handled this.

It was priced in, IMO. And the current market is typical for a normally bad day in a typical market.

I’m hopeful that this signifies that we have at least leveled out. And can hopefully get used to some regular(ish) market swings instead of the massive ones we’ve been seeing.

[JParm]

How do you all feel about SPY? We talk individual stocks a lot here, but is it worth going into this ETF vs. allocating that money more towards the Googles, Facebooks, etc.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m encouraged on how the markets handled this.

It was priced in, IMO. And the current market is typical for a normally bad day in a typical market.

I’m hopeful that this signifies that we have at least leveled out. And can hopefully get used to some regular(ish) market swings instead of the massive ones we’ve been seeing.

Agreed, the VIX is down slightly, those who shorted the number are now trying to cover hence the DOW looks to open -50 at this point

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

How do you all feel about SPY? We talk individual stocks a lot here, but is it worth going into this ETF vs. allocating that money more towards the Googles, Facebooks, etc.

I know that for years this has been the recommended strategy for those who wish to be hands off.

Personally I do not like to do this as you get the good with the bad and at this point I feel that there are far more S&P stocks that will under perform over the next 3-6 months

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I know that for years this has been the recommended strategy for those who wish to be hands off.

Personally I do not like to do this as you get the good with the bad and at this point I feel that there are far more S&P stocks that will under perform over the next 3-6 months

Thank you, and great point

Maybe during a normal market run, not so bad to buy in there I suppose. But I guess with all of the value brands trading at such lows, better to pick and choose yourself.

[beshannon]

Just saw this on Twitter and it is anecdotal but oh so very true

if your Mother calls and asks if we need to retest . . .

I expect a call, text, email, page, telegram and carrier pigeon !!

Cuz that's the bottom !!!

[beshannon]

‘We like these prices’ — Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees best ‘risk/reward’ market in 2 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/morg...n-2-years.html

“We’ve been scaling back into stocks over the last two, three or four weeks. We’re not going to catch the bottom exactly,” the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist said on “Squawk Box.”

I am not happy about the value lost in my accounts, I was actually very upset last week but I need to calm down and focus.

The markets and the economy will recover, take a breath, evaluate your plan and options and stop stressing over what has happened as it will do no good. PSA for the day

[JasoninDenver]

As I understand it, the current unemployment figures do not include self-employed Americans. They constitute up to 33% of our workforce.

[DonRickles]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

As I understand it, the current unemployment figures do not include self-employed Americans. They constitute up to 33% of our workforce.

When have the unemployment numbers ever been reported accurately?

[beshannon]

Broad based rally 4/1 upside, Financials, Healthcare, Tech all leading, whisper number on unemployment was much higher, will look for 10:00 DOW number, VIX is down 7%, Blackrock reporting a lot of rebalancing happening due to skewed portfolio valuations and positions. This could explain the moves into value names and buying in general

[JParm]

Not going to lie, this is not how I envisioned this first hour to go after the announcement.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Not going to lie, this is not how I envisioned this first hour to go after the announcement.

Solid rally, broad based . . . don't fight the tape