Talking Stocks 2.0

[Mr. Miami]

Markets have some green on the screen in early trading. Guess we’ll see what happens today.

[beshannon]

Just watched MMM run away from me, I am not going to chase

Looking for some sells into strength but it is tough at this point as the averages keep moving higher.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Just watched MMM run away from me, I am not going to chase

Looking for some sells into strength but it is tough at this point as the averages keep moving higher.

I'm hands off today; we'll see what happens if the bill passes tomorrow, and also what happens in April.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm hands off today; we'll see what happens if the bill passes tomorrow, and also what happens in April.

Right. No hurry.

The adventurous amongst us will short, which I was going to do this morning but decided to go to the store in search of chicken (found some!!! ) and now that I've returned, I see the market is up, so it's a good thing I waited.

I'll just sit tight. I may sell some if the market continues higher this afternoon because either the house will screw up the vote, or when the bill actually passes, so shall the euphoria.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by m j b

Right. No hurry.

The adventurous amongst us will short, which I was going to do this morning but decided to go to the store in search of chicken (found some!!! ) and now that I've returned, I see the market is up, so it's a good thing I waited.

I'll just sit tight. I may sell some if the market continues higher this afternoon because either the house will screw up the vote, or when the bill actually passes, so shall the euphoria.

I am not as lucky as you are, shorted yesterday and not looking too hot today. I am highly confident we have yet to find a bottom so I am only adding to my short positions as we ride up. Additionally, so far the news has led to an inverse move in the market. Futures dropped last night when the phase 3 of the relief bill passed and rallied this morning on unemployment numbers.

[Bruin Watch]

Wow. What a remarkable, almost unreal rally on such negative news. Seemed like everyone already knew/assumed the bill would pass but yet sentiment is even higher. Kinda wished I sliced in more but didn’t want to fall prey to FOMO.

Is it wrong to feel pessimistic about the market rally in the short term, given almost all of the health experts say we have a ways to go and things are likely to get worse? I just don’t see us bouncing back overnight.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by bryan13

I am only adding to my short positions as we ride up.

I did that yesterday on my AAL short* as the stock kept climbing and then closed out with a teeny-tiny gain on the position before the stock continued to fall, thereby exhibiting my incredible lack of good timing. But it's up today, so that makes me feel better.

I still think it's a short, but apparently e*trade charges like 9% on a margin position, and that plus the risk has me sitting at the gate, waiting to board, so to speak.

* - yesterday morning I bought puts on AAL then sold them within 30 minutes for a quick tiny profit and then after the stock kept climbing, shorted it twice.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Bruin Watch

Is it wrong to feel pessimistic about the market rally in the short term?

I don't think so.

I just don’t see us bouncing back overnight.

I think most of us here agree that there will be more lows to be discovered.

[m j b]

I just reviewed my trading (non-IRA) portfolio, and with the exception of a long-term huge strategic loss*, all of my day trading over the past week has resulted in a net gain of -$553 which isn't as bad as I had feared, but obviously demonstrates that I should STOP DOING IT.


* - HRTX, which some may recall from the first "Talking Stocks" thread, highly recommended by @BNA/Lion who is not responding to my PMs... not that I'm blaming him, no, I'm a big boy, did my own research, I'm just saying that I don't know where he stands on it right now.

[superdog]

So I got a little in during the downtime. About 15% of what I have ready to invest.

Yes, there is a part of me that wished I put more in. But I think that is FOMO and greed speaking.

I am truly just happy to see this rally. Obviously, I do not have any faith in it. But, if it is going to go back down, which I believe it will, I would rather the decline start from a higher point.

And when it (if) does go down, I am staying with the strategy, buying long term large cap funds only.

Good luck all.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Bruin Watch

Is it wrong to feel pessimistic about the market rally in the short term, given almost all of the health experts say we have a ways to go and things are likely to get worse? I just don’t see us bouncing back overnight.

Not at all. Conversely no one saw us declining so far so fast either

Originally Posted by m j b

I don't think so.

I think most of us here agree that there will be more lows to be discovered.

Possibly. There are some technical indicators that indicate that we may have seen the bottom.

[JParm]

While we're seeing pretty big gains over the last few days, I am truly surprised at how BA is faring right now...almost as if the MAX problems and everything else went away.

I bought at 101 and am holding for long-term, saw upside and value in the company - but no way did I think it would be at 180 a week later.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

While we're seeing pretty big gains over the last few days, I am truly surprised at how BA is faring right now...almost as if the MAX problems and everything else went away.

I bought at 101 and am holding for long-term, saw upside and value in the company - but no way did I think it would be at 180 a week later.

No one thought it would be 86 either.

[Hard_Six]

Originally Posted by m j b

Right. No hurry.

The adventurous amongst us will short, which I was going to do this morning but decided to go to the store in search of chicken (found some!!! ) and now that I've returned, I see the market is up, so it's a good thing I waited.

I'll just sit tight. I may sell some if the market continues higher this afternoon because either the house will screw up the vote, or when the bill actually passes, so shall the euphoria.

I agree. I think we will see another pullback. My guess is it will come once the stimulus is actually passed. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

[Bruin Watch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not at all. Conversely no one saw us declining so far so fast either



Possibly. There are some technical indicators that indicate that we may have seen the bottom.

Michael, Brian, Seth and others, thank you both for your perspectives. Helpful to have some additional insight/input helps. And we are even higher than earlier. Amazing.

This thread has been a good resource/sounding board for many. Appreciate everyone's input during this historic time.

[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...week-to-decide

Long-ish article, but worth the read IMO. I know there's a lot of positive "have we hit the bottom?" sentiment out there, so just trying to keep the optimism somewhat in check.

Yes, the stimulus will help, but one thing we're still missing is demand for products (and a cure, or at least falling statistics).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...week-to-decide

Long-ish article, but worth the read IMO. I know there's a lot of positive "have we hit the bottom?" sentiment out there, so just trying to keep the optimism somewhat in check.

Yes, the stimulus will help, but one thing we're still missing is demand for products (and a cure, or at least falling statistics).

Agreed, demand is part of the problem, the market is looking past this to the pent up demand that will result.

This is a great article and showing some of the technicals that I indicated were showing positive signs. Again, could we go down? Yes. Could we go lower? Yes. Will we? I am not so sure and once again I list a very old adage on the street, "don't fight the tape"

Paul Tudor Jones interview

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/paul...ronavirus.html

Lots of fund rebalancing for end of quarter, March looks ok, April during the peak of the cases could be a rough spot, by the end of the year we should be higher

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed, demand is part of the problem, the market is looking past this to the pent up demand that will result.

This is a great article and showing some of the technicals that I indicated were showing positive signs. Again, could we go down? Yes. Could we go lower? Yes. Will we? I am not so sure and once again I list a very old adage on the street, "don't fight the tape"

Paul Tudor Jones interview

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/paul...ronavirus.html

Lots of fund rebalancing for end of quarter, March looks ok, April during the peak of the cases could be a rough spot, by the end of the year we should be higher

Nice interview. Thanks for posting.

3 up days in a row is definitely unexpected. FOMO rules, imo, so I'm definitely not chasing this one. I'm convinced we will see lower lows on this drawdown, but I don't know how long it will take.

Sitting patiently on the sidelines.

[beshannon]

The story is 4 days old at this point which is a lifetime but there is an excellent list to base starting research on for dividend stocks

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...bably-not-over

I am going to build a watchlist in my Schwab software and prune it as I do my research

[healer]

Wow. Just wow. Thanks to all.

[avidflyer]

I don't understand how we can be this high three days in a row. (very glad we are) but don't get it. In all reality we've haven't seen any of the bad YET in the U.S. Still a good chance of 500-1000 deaths a day. (Just like some areas of Europe) Hope I'm wrong but I think in a week or two we could be back at the 17K-18K level.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The story is 4 days old at this point which is a lifetime but there is an excellent list to base starting research on for dividend stocks

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...bably-not-over

I am going to build a watchlist in my Schwab software and prune it as I do my research

How is Schwab software vs ThinkOrSwim? I am not sure whats happening with TOS when Schwab takeover is complete but I guess I will have to learn it at some point or another.

Also, hello neighbor! Reporting in from Tysons corner

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bryan13

How is Schwab software vs ThinkOrSwim? I am not sure whats happening with TOS when Schwab takeover is complete but I guess I will have to learn it at some point or another.

I have no idea since I have never used TOS.

I have been a Schwab customer for over 30 years and I am very happy with them.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

I don't understand how we can be this high three days in a row. (very glad we are) but don't get it. In all reality we've haven't seen any of the bad YET in the U.S. Still a good chance of 500-1000 deaths a day. (Just like some areas of Europe) Hope I'm wrong but I think in a week or two we could be back at the 17K-18K level.

You could be right.

Conversely if we are expecting what you just said then it is not really news and the market already knows this. We are higher because it is the end of the month, the end of the quarter, fund rebalancing, deeply over sold stocks at tremendous values, FED increasing liquidity to stabilize the credit markets . . .

Bottom line to understand if you are looking for short term movements or you are focused on long term investments.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

I don't understand how we can be this high three days in a row. (very glad we are) but don't get it. In all reality we've haven't seen any of the bad YET in the U.S. Still a good chance of 500-1000 deaths a day. (Just like some areas of Europe) Hope I'm wrong but I think in a week or two we could be back at the 17K-18K level.

I think the panic is over. The economists have forecasted 30% unemployment if we go crazy with lockdown and the doctors have forecasted 4 million dead if we lose control of the pandemic (2% death). The answer is somewhere in between where the risk rewards of both curves intersect. Are we worried? Yes, but we know the worst case scenarios and are digging in and ready to fight.

Fed has used atom bombs, Congress has unveiled a stimulus bigger than anything ever before.

All the right countermeasures are in place. Short at your own risk. All the downside information scenarios have been repeated in our head repeatedly and mostly priced in.

Total deaths globally still below that of the US flu and we're already leaving flu season. Again, short at your own risk.

I'm LT investment and have already rebalanced and picked my positions, now its to wait 2 years and let the good times roll.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I think the panic is over. The economists have forecasted 30% unemployment if we go crazy with lockdown and the doctors have forecasted 4 million dead if we lose control of the pandemic (2% death). The answer is somewhere in between where the risk rewards of both curves intersect. Are we worried? Yes, but we know the worst case scenarios and are digging in and ready to fight.

Fed has used atom bombs, Congress has unveiled a stimulus bigger than anything ever before.

All the right countermeasures are in place. Short at your own risk. All the downside information scenarios have been repeated in our head repeatedly and mostly priced in.

Total deaths globally still below that of the US flu and we're already leaving flu season. Again, short at your own risk.

I'm LT investment and have already rebalanced and picked my positions, now its to wait 2 years and let the good times roll.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow...?mod=hp_LATEST

I wouldn't be so certain. Sure, seems like we might be back in bull territory extremely quickly, but same thing happened in 1931 (3 days)...only to come back into a bear in '32.

Not saying this is the same, but again, just peppering some of the optimism here.

A week ago, we had analysts and others saying we're in for a rough ride, and now it seems like everyone wants to call for the come-up. Let's slowdown a bit...

While this is different from every other crash...aren't they all? History generally repeats itself.

[JParm]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...?mod=home-page

More history.

[Bearxj86]

I don't disagree at all. I am by no means predicting the bottom; I simply don't have confidence to bet additional money on up/down swings at this point. My perspective : since I bought in at sizable positions at -35% and if goes down to -50% or -65% I'm already positioned to hold till it recovers. In all cases I believe the upside potential is there, it is just whether it is 2 years out versus 5 years out.

I think what is surprising and perhaps is a good sign for us is that social media and dissemination of information has allowed governments and individuals to react faster than ever before. This could explain acceleration in bull/bear market bounce scenarios.

Forgot to mention, if you look at the SARs scenario, then the charts make sense. If you look at the 2008 recession scenario, it tells us this is an artificial bounce. I think the truth is somewhere in between.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow...?mod=hp_LATEST

I wouldn't be so certain. Sure, seems like we might be back in bull territory extremely quickly, but same thing happened in 1931 (3 days)...only to come back into a bear in '32.

Not saying this is the same, but again, just peppering some of the optimism here.

A week ago, we had analysts and others saying we're in for a rough ride, and now it seems like everyone wants to call for the come-up. Let's slowdown a bit...

While this is different from every other crash...aren't they all? History generally repeats itself.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I don't disagree at all. I am by no means predicting the bottom; I simply don't have confidence to bet additional money on up/down swings at this point. My perspective : since I bought in at sizable positions at -35% and if goes down to -50% or -65% I'm already positioned to hold till it recovers. In all cases I believe the upside potential is there, it is just whether it is 2 years out versus 5 years out.
.

I did the same as you

I think we can agree that chasing this market would probably be the worst thing to do (at least in the position that you and I are in as long-term investors).

I have more cash that I hope to deploy, should this go down any further. If not, then once we're truly out of the woods I can invest properly.

[beshannon]

Not surprised to see the markets taking a breather, now only up ~800 after being up nearly ~1300

Will need to see how we approach 2 pm and then close going into a Friday