Talking Stocks 2.0

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by Old Geezer

IMO, those that gave him airtime and coverage are complicit in his game.

True, and that's why when I used to watch CNBC I considered it more as entertainment than anything else. Much like many of our news outlets these days. It's all about the number of eyeballs they can garner and sensationalism and negativity reel them in.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by SMD

Meh, everyone talks up their own book on CNBC.

Not really. Pros / experienced traders & investors know this, but the average Joe really has no clue.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SMD

Meh, everyone talks up their own book on CNBC.

Of course they do, or talk the thing up to sell known 'sh*tty deals' to the bigger fools. CNBC is barely more than a thinly veiled cheerleader.

Don't forget what Jim Cramer said, keeping holding your Bear Stern stocks! Meanwhile there's video online of Cramer admitting to Apple stock manipulation, the SEC knows as i personally spoke with them about it years ago... the SEC doesn't care.

[Bruin Watch]

Interesting close to the week....

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Bruin Watch

Interesting close to the week....

Agree - people selling off.

[Doc Savage]

...and we're selling off big into the close. Not a huge surprise on a Friday in our current situation, especially after the up days this week.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

...and we're selling off big into the close. Not a huge surprise on a Friday in our current situation, especially after the up days this week.

Agreed, this is the close I was looking for and I think this is good. We needed to work off some of the excess, the profit taking gets us back closer to where we should be after the last three days.

Monday is a new day, stay safe everyone, do your homework and keep your distance!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by SMD

Meh, everyone talks up their own book on CNBC.

Agreed he didn’t need to do that to make his nut or anything I just find it funny that he would deny that’s what he was doing when it’s so obviously bullshit.

[JParm]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...crisis-1287047

Let's see if this will have any affect on DIS share price. Looking to add here...

This does make us a bit sad though, as we have passes here in FL. Safety first though, definitely.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Agreed he didn’t need to do that to make his nut or anything I just find it funny that he would deny that’s what he was doing when it’s so obviously bullshit.

Guys like him who get away with lying in their daily lives for so many years will never admit they ever do anything wrong.

Unless it is connected to a plea bargain.

[Bruin Watch]

More to come next week. Have a good weekend, all!

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Understood. And you explanation is largely why I avoid margin at all even though I have it available to me. Having said that, on any retest I may start with some margin long positions looking toward a 12-18 month time frame when I expect the economy to be doing much better and prices should be higher off these extreme value lows.

I am thinking the same. I try to avoid margin these days, as I have enjoyed some interesting margin calls in the past myself. Once got a Fed call while on a cruise with no cell service and "cruise" internet. That was not great.

Having said that, if we do retest the lows, I am considering adding to long positions in quality companies that have been oversold. I also think that a few years from now, we'll be looking back at this as a huge buying opportunity. My greatest regret from the 08/09 crisis is that I day traded stocks during that time, instead of buying and holding. I could be retired in my 30s if I had held some of those positions. (Half joking, but while I made money then it was all new to me, and the volatility scared me from taking a longer term approach).

Do you have a target for the SPY to reach before you start buying? I think if we reach the 2100 area, I will likely add and not look at my account for 2 years.

I figure my margin interest rate is 2.78 percent APY, and the returns I'd likely generate will be considerably better.

Now I need to decide whether to close long positions now and wait for a better entry or possibly hedge.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by m j b

Thanks for the links.

In the one above, they report that the American Airlines CEO says that they're eligible to borrow $12B, that schedules will be cut 60% in April and 80% (another 80% from the 60 or from the original?) in May. That's huge. And right now, flights are 15% full, which tells me that they are hemorrhaging money. I wonder if they'll have to pay back the $12B?

I want to short this as well, but the market doesn't agree with me. Too bad I can't buy options in extended hours.

I was so tempted to short American after the 3 day rally, and frankly still am, but I have also been burned shorting in the past. Trying to alter my mindset from trading to long term investing, but it is not easy...

[watchmework]

With us coming to the end of the "15 days to slow the spread" and a planned update on any restrictions and way forward from the COVID-19 Task force...anyone else thinking that the market will dip further early next week? If they do end up putting an enforceable two week quarantine on NY/NJ/CONN, I would think that could certainly have an impact.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Not really. Pros / experienced traders & investors know this, but the average Joe really has no clue.

And all their breaking news is on a lag that the smart money already 30 seconds or more ahead

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I am thinking the same. I try to avoid margin these days, as I have enjoyed some interesting margin calls in the past myself. Once got a Fed call while on a cruise with no cell service and "cruise" internet. That was not great.

Having said that, if we do retest the lows, I am considering adding to long positions in quality companies that have been oversold. I also think that a few years from now, we'll be looking back at this as a huge buying opportunity. My greatest regret from the 08/09 crisis is that I day traded stocks during that time, instead of buying and holding. I could be retired in my 30s if I had held some of those positions. (Half joking, but while I made money then it was all new to me, and the volatility scared me from taking a longer term approach).

Do you have a target for the SPY to reach before you start buying? I think if we reach the 2100 area, I will likely add and not look at my account for 2 years.

I figure my margin interest rate is 2.78 percent APY, and the returns I'd likely generate will be considerably better.

Now I need to decide whether to close long positions now and wait for a better entry or possibly hedge.

I’m thinking the lows won’t be hit until this late summer or early fall... possibly even next year. I’m not going all in long until S&P5hundo at 1600ish

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

I’m thinking the lows won’t be hit until this late summer or early fall... possibly even next year. I’m not going all in long until S&P5hundo at 1600ish

I think that level is unlikely, unless we fail to see the virus peaking within the next few months and closures extend into Q3.

[BroncoOne]

Wait until the markets figure this out on Monday. New bottoms coming.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Do you have a target for the SPY to reach before you start buying? I think if we reach the 2100 area, I will likely add and not look at my account for 2 years.

I am researching and watching, there will be a lot of new info before Monday morning to digest. I am in no rush to add cash here.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Wait until the markets figure this out on Monday. New bottoms coming.

Yep. -30% from here at least. The hope for a V shaped recovery is gone for good.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Yep. -30% from here at least. The hope for a V shaped recovery is gone for good.

It's only four months on the UI increase, but good luck getting a politician to take it back in an election year.

Good news is that the regs aren't written yet and they may state that you lose the UI if your job is available and you don't go back. Still, a tough hill to climb and too in the weeds for most Traders.

[healer]

just fyi last Tuesday new York started using the combo meds for the coronona virus. in 10-14 days we will see results. remember in 3-5 days labs will already see the trend of the results. just keep that in mind ,also keep in mind corona virus are enveloped virus and they don't like heat and increase humidity they don't last long. summer is coming soon;) California weather will be in high 70s this week:)- it will not be long one of this company will proclaimed that they have the medication for it. im not talking about a vaccine they still have to test that for a while. stocks see the future and not whats happening now.

[Letsgodiving]

The last 20 years has had its share of challenging times as an investor and the current episode may just be getting started. No one knows how long this one will last and there will likely be many ups and downs along the way but the long term trend has always been up and I expect that will continue. (Chart courtesy of SimpleGift@Bogleheads)

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by healer

just fyi last Tuesday new York started using the combo meds for the coronona virus. in 10-14 days we will see results. remember in 3-5 days labs will already see the trend of the results. just keep that in mind ,also keep in mind corona virus are enveloped virus and they don't like heat and increase humidity they don't last long. summer is coming soon;) California weather will be in high 70s this week:)- it will not be long one of this company will proclaimed that they have the medication for it. im not talking about a vaccine they still have to test that for a while. stocks see the future and not whats happening now.

Thanks for sharing, found this article interesting:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....-hiv-drug/amp/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tha Baron]

Here’s the themes for this week:

Jobs will continue to post record losses (Some think last week report was BS - CA alone was reported to have 1mm claimants but they are 15% of the US population)

This “$2.2 Trillion Stimulus Relief Fake Money Bill” is gonna get real pretty quick. Congress wants you to think the money is just right around the corner. I bet the money is locked up for weeks and everyone will scream “where is the money?!?”.

Truth is the SBA loans typically take 30-60 days to underwrite and require a ton of paperwork. Banks won’t be able to keep up. I have lot of friends in the banking world and one thing is clear - nobody knows yet how this will operationally work. Also, for banks to be made whole on these loans it’s the banks burden to prove the borrower and bank did certain things correctly... I’m not sure many banks will want the increased exposure given the rest of their house is on fire (mortgages, commercial loans, revolver draw downs).

You remember when the Fed told JPMorgan to rescue WaMu and Bear Stearns in the crisis only to many years later fine JPM $13Billion for the prior sins of the institutions they acquired? Well, I’m guessing JPM remembers and they are gonna sign up tomorrow to start throwing out billions of dollars to new customers at the hope they can get their losses back easily from the government.

The relief bill was so hastily put together that mechanically its going to be a sh-tshow to implement... but, hey, at least DC has done their victory lap and they can now point blame on the banks and whoever they want for its failure. This stimulus is like the huge warehouse of hurricane relief supplies found in PR a year after the big storm. Yeah, that’s your government for you.

Disclosure: I am short the SPY

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

The last 20 years has had its share of challenging times as an investor and the current episode may just be getting started. No one knows how long this one will last and there will likely be many ups and downs along the way but the long term trend has always been up and I expect that will continue. (Chart courtesy of SimpleGift@Bogleheads)

Thanks for this, and I think this is the type of chart that people need to see before thinking we're back in bull territory.

I've posted a few times recently that I think there's a lot of false optimism at play; the fervor about the bill carried us through last week (as well as many people saying that the unemployment rate was already priced in), but where's the good news now that it has passed? We have another unemployment report coming, and it could be double last week's number. Is that one already priced in as well?

The bad news is still here:
-no cure / vaccine yet, though there seems to be some headway in terms of
testing (see Abbott's recent news)
-increasing number of cases / deaths in the US, with no consensus on when the peak will be
-closures at the state level are staggered; we still have states today that have yet to implement shelter in place directives
-initial closure dates have been extended, as seen at Disney, Universal, etc. (who knows how long we'll truly be out of business)
-unemployment continues to rise (SeaWorld just furloughed 90% of employees)
-we will see continue to see more small businesses shutter for good, even with the stimulus

I don't say this to be the doom and gloom guy - I say this to bring us back to reality. Many asked last week if we are out of this bear market and if they missed the dip - look at the list above and you tell me. I truly believe that last week's market was just a positive blip due to the bill; we are still on the way down.

Having said that, keep an eye out for long-term buying opportunities. That's what we're doing, as many on here are. Though these are tough times, if you stay informed, you can set yourself up nicely for the long play.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Thanks for this, and I think this is the type of chart that people need to see before thinking we're back in bull territory.

I've posted a few times recently that I think there's a lot of false optimism at play; the fervor about the bill carried us through last week (as well as many people saying that the unemployment rate was already priced in), but where's the good news now that it has passed? We have another unemployment report coming, and it could be double last week's number. Is that one already priced in as well?

The bad news is still here:
-no cure / vaccine yet, though there seems to be some headway in terms of
testing (see Abbott's recent news)
-increasing number of cases / deaths in the US, with no consensus on when the peak will be
-closures at the state level are staggered; we still have states today that have yet to implement shelter in place directives
-initial closure dates have been extended, as seen at Disney, Universal, etc. (who knows how long we'll truly be out of business)
-unemployment continues to rise (SeaWorld just furloughed 90% of employees)
-we will see continue to see more small businesses shutter for good, even with the stimulus

I don't say this to be the doom and gloom guy - I say this to bring us back to reality. Many asked last week if we are out of this bear market and if they missed the dip - look at the list above and you tell me. I truly believe that last week's market was just a positive blip due to the bill; we are still on the way down.

Having said that, keep an eye out for long-term buying opportunities. That's what we're doing, as many on here are. Though these are tough times, if you stay informed, you can set yourself up nicely for the long play.

I agree with all your points. I did a lot of trading during the dotcom bust but since then I have been a strict buy and hold long-term investor and I have never tried to time the market. I was very tempted to sell into the rally last week but I decided this is no time to try my market timing skills and held to my strategy. I have reserves set aside to keep buying if/when the market continues to drop and I am confident that will work out well in the long run. I see many more great bargains in our future.

[Baco Noir]

I bought mid-week last week. I know there will be more ups/downs as this plays out, but I figured the market was at a discount to where it should be, so it’s time to be patient and live with the drops, because eventually it will come back.

[Duey]

The hardest part for people to except is the FACT that the market at 29,500 was not real. It was probably only worth 25% to 30% less in real value. It is really hard for people to rap their heads around this.

Now add a pandemic to it and it's probably worth 25% less at the bottom of the V (just my view)

[Jacqueline]

My call is s&p 1150 bottom. I think unemployment number will be triple last week. The relief bill is way too little for many small businesses.