hey guys, rolex GMT Bubble begin to burst !

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

pump and dump

That would either imply that demand remains high enough for quick inventory turns or that you are more aware of my sad love life than I would have expected.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

There’s only 1090 BLNR on chrono 24 at the moment. 19 pages worth

and 5700 Rolex Daytona listings on Chrono 24.
It’s never been about supply.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

That would either imply that demand remains high enough for quick inventory turns or that you are more aware of my sad love life than I would have expected.

You, my friend, win the Internet today

Oh, and, welcome to the club

[mmaggi]

Supply n demand. Watchbox alone has over 30 Batmans/Batgirls available. I've noticed the price drops as well. They will continue to come down should the supply continue to increase. Simple law of economics folks.

[Collector2019]

Buy the dip

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by Mystro

and 5700 Rolex Daytona listings on Chrono 24.
It’s never been about supply.

They have made daytonas for 50 years....

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

They have made daytonas for 50 years....

True but only desirable since the mid 90’s. Early 9O‘s you couldn’t give a SS Daytona away. Back then everything was about TT and 18k. I remember my local dealer when buying my TT Daytona practically begged me to buy the SS Daytona that was sitting there for almost a year in the case. The Zenith “not a real Rolex movement” was the argument that most made and took a while for the Rolex in-house movement to take affect.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by Mystro

and 5700 Rolex Daytona listings on Chrono 24.
It’s never been about supply.

it is absolutely (at least in part) about supply. someone on this forum had, well before the current shortage started, pointed out that rolex were about to drastically ramp down supply on all their sport watches. it turned into a very lengthy thread as people were skeptical, and now here we are.

that isn't a coincidence. it also defies all logic that supply could hold steady and the demand side could go this far out of whack this quickly for no clearly discernible reason.

[mfm22]

Mass hysteria driving demand [ FOMO] ..

Watches will be bought / flipped / flipped etc until the price point matches the lowered demand - last one holding the watch better be keeping it !

[Equity]

A wave of gold subs flooding the market would be nice.


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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

There’s only 1090 BLNR on chrono 24 at the moment. 19 pages worth

LOL seriously is there?

Cant fathom why anyone would buy this watch at premium. With this amount of stock floating around none of these Rolex's should be fetching any of these prices.

There is also 272 BLROs on Chrono24 and 605 Hulks as well. Crazy man. Sooooo many of these so called hot watches everyone having a false sense of rarity and scarcity. LOL

[Madman37]

There’s no scarcity of SS models, there’s is scarcity of these models via the AD at MSRP.

I went grey and paid £11k for a BLNR Oyster because it’s to hard to get via an AD and I would have to spend more than £11k combined on the watch and stuff I don’t want at the AD to get the watch so in fact was a cheaper option for me.

The OP is right prices are going down since I purchased mine about 3 months ago I will be happy if prices drop because it means even though it means I could have got my current watch for cheaper if I waited I can at least get another watch easily as there are a few more I want.

[~dadam02~]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL seriously is there?

Cant fathom why anyone would buy this watch at premium. With this amount of stock floating around none of these Rolex's should be fetching any of these prices.

There is also 272 BLROs on Chrono24 and 605 Hulks as well. Crazy man. Sooooo many of these so called hot watches everyone having a false sense of rarity and scarcity. LOL

These are mass made watches, they've never been rare, nor scarce. They have always been freely availablel, albeit at a premium.

[peterpl]

Why so many Batmans for sale on the classifieds these days?

People trying to get out of the flipping game or what?

[Mystro]

Older gen 1 BLNR owners trying to cash out on the current climate. The BLNR was much more popular than the LVC so you will see more for sale as Rolex never had a issue selling the BLNR where the LVc wasn’t that popular the first 7 years of its life. The hulk owners have been doing the same thing the last year. Watches almost out of their 5 year warranty are selling considerably less. Watches with no warranty even more.
The new releases like the BLRO and BLNR are settling into to their market prices.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Madman37

There’s no scarcity of SS models, there’s is scarcity of these models via the AD at MSRP.

I went grey and paid £11k for a BLNR Oyster because it’s to hard to get via an AD and I would have to spend more than £11k combined on the watch and stuff I don’t want at the AD to get the watch so in fact was a cheaper option for me.

The OP is right prices are going down since I purchased mine about 3 months ago I will be happy if prices drop because it means even though it means I could have got my current watch for cheaper if I waited I can at least get another watch easily as there are a few more I want.

You will be fine at that purchased price. More importantly you have the watch YOU want and it’s on your wrist now.
Every watch Rolex makes is mass produced and certain models will always sell at a extra premium. I have just accepted that if you want to buy a new hot Rolex model you just pay the current value. It’s like buying into the commodity market now. There is no “set prices” with a Rolex.
Welcome to the new Rolex environment. The good old days of trying on and buying at your AD are long gone.

[jimcameron]

Check out the new Ball gmt. Why would anyone buy anything else?

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Older gen 1 BLNR owners trying to cash out on the current climate. The BLNR was much more popular than the LVC so you will see more for sale as Rolex never had a issue selling the BLNR where the LVc wasn’t that popular the first 7 years of its life. The hulk owners have been doing the same thing the last year. Watches almost out of their 5 year warranty are selling considerably less. Watches with no warranty even more.
The new releases like the BLRO and BLNR are settling into to their market prices.

I think you might find it’s actually more to do with new BLNR owners trying to cash in on the current climate

Chrono24:-

126710 BLNR - 380 (been out what, 6 months?)

116710BLNR - 694 (been out 6+ years?)

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Check out the new Ball gmt. Why would anyone buy anything else?

Have you had one in hand?

1. I am not a fan of titanium cases.
2. Aluminum insert is fine for 4 or 5 digit. After having seen how well ceramic bezels hold up, I’ll stick with ceramic for modern pieces.
3. I would like to see if their new movements are going to hold up, before jumping in.

[10klakes]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Rolex is only running the BLNR on jubilee this year, till they release the coke. I will lmao if the BLNR goes away after one year, and the hysteria for it begins.

“Batgirl this.... batgirl that..... oh sh*t, it’s discontinued- I never should’ve flipped it!”

Buy because you love the watch, stick to MSRP, and all this bubble bursting talk won’t matter.

[spoon-turbo]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Check out the new Ball gmt. Why would anyone buy anything else?

Right. There are so many pepsi look-a-likes these days.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by Mystro

You will be fine at that purchased price. More importantly you have the watch YOU want and it’s on your wrist now.
Every watch Rolex makes is mass produced and certain models will always sell at a extra premium. I have just accepted that if you want to buy a new hot Rolex model you just pay the current value. It’s like buying into the commodity market now. There is no “set prices” with a Rolex.
Welcome to the new Rolex environment. The good old days of trying on and buying at your AD are long gone.

why do you believe that paying double retail means the purchaser will be ‘fine at that purchase price’? Based on what and over what period are you talking?

Say he had to sell tomorrow, if he has paid £11k, a dealer might offer £8.5/9k tops or go down the hassle of selling privately for maybe 10k

Let’s assume reality is that the watch market goes back to a more sensible pricing level in the next couple years and the blnr drops to £8k, I guess inflation might mean that in 10 years the op might get £11k for his watch

It doesn’t stack up. Buying retail and selling at inflated market levels is the only way you will be ‘ok’ in this climate, if looking for a no loss/gain on your purchase.

But as many preach, watches are not about making a return other than the enjoyment they give you

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

why do you believe that paying double retail means the purchaser will be ‘fine at that purchase price’? Based on what and over what period are you talking?

Say he had to sell tomorrow, if he has paid £11k, a dealer might offer £8.5/9k tops or go down the hassle of selling privately for maybe 10k

Let’s assume reality is that the watch market goes back to a more sensible pricing level in the next couple years and the blnr drops to £8k, I guess inflation might mean that in 10 years the op might get £11k for his watch

It doesn’t stack up. Buying retail and selling at inflated market levels is the only way you will be ‘ok’ in this climate, if looking for a no loss/gain on your purchase.

But as many preach, watches are not about making a return other than the enjoyment they give you

Simply because we are in unprecedented times with the Rolex market. The bubble theory isn’t that widely accepted by many in the industry to the point it will burst to msrp levels. I purchased a new TT CHNR way above msrp and traded it back a year later to the grey market and got exactly what I paid a year earlier. In other words, msrp, is meaningless now. Yea I could still be waiting in a line for the CHNR at msrp but I have already purchased and tested the new buy/sell market environment. I honestly could care less a couple $k either way but it did give me empirical first hand data to buy in the current environment.
I will go on record now that if you buy one of these new Rolex models now at market value and keep it for 10 years, it most likely won’t be worth any less than what you paid for it. That was always the “Rolex has great resale value” standard the last 30 years. Buying one wear it a few decades and it’s worth at least what you paid for it. Flipping for profit is another can of worms I don’t follow and when the “sticker” madness started.

[marnii]

just went to check price in our selling section because this thread,two dealer selling BLRO 17k+,a private seller selling one 16.8k.

[Robtayham]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Simply because we are in unprecedented times with the Rolex market. The bubble theory isn’t that widely accepted by many in the industry to the point it will burst to msrp levels. I purchased a new TT CHNR way above msrp and traded it back a year later to the grey market and got exactly what I paid a year earlier. In other words, msrp, is meaningless now. Yea I could still be waiting in a line for the CHNR at msrp but I have already purchased and tested the new buy/sell market environment. I honestly could care less a couple $k either way but it did give me empirical first hand data to buy in the current environment.
I will go on record now that if you buy one of these new Rolex models now at market value and keep it for 10 years, it most likely won’t be worth any less than what you paid for it. That was always the “Rolex has great resale value” standard the last 30 years. Buying one wear it a few decades and it’s worth at least what you paid for it. Flipping for profit is another can of worms I don’t follow and when the “sticker” madness started.

With the greys and resellers creating artificial supply problems, they’ve created a bubble. That’s not controversial.

MSRP is not meaningless. It would be meaningless if there was finite supply supply. With Rolex continuing to produce more and more of these watches, MSRP is more important than ever.

I’m thinking your opinions are typical of the ‘it’s not a bubble, but its the new norm’ crowd. There are a lot of people who hope you’re wrong.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Simply because we are in unprecedented times with the Rolex market. The bubble theory isn’t that widely accepted by many in the industry to the point it will burst to msrp levels. I purchased a new TT CHNR way above msrp and traded it back a year later to the grey market and got exactly what I paid a year earlier. In other words, msrp, is meaningless now. Yea I could still be waiting in a line for the CHNR at msrp but I have already purchased and tested the new buy/sell market environment. I honestly could care less a couple $k either way but it did give me empirical first hand data to buy in the current environment.
I will go on record now that if you buy one of these new Rolex models now at market value and keep it for 10 years, it most likely won’t be worth any less than what you paid for it. That was always the “Rolex has great resale value” standard the last 30 years. Buying one wear it a few decades and it’s worth at least what you paid for it. Flipping for profit is another can of worms I don’t follow and when the “sticker” madness started.

We just straight up disagree I guess - but you haven’t addressed the inflation issue or the fact that if you paid $X today for a watch and sold it for $X in 10 years, your $X has lost 10 years worth of buying power - net present value and all that - so you have actually lost money (assuming X remains constant)

notice I did not state ‘bubble’ nor ‘dropping to MSRP’ - 1 Year is nothing - you bought high and sold slightly higher (accounting for the price regardless of wear) all while still in the grip of watch mania - you haven’t tested the long term stability of the market one bit - you simply dipped

Remember bitcoin - lots and lots of people made many many millions - but those who bought towards the end of the hype - lost their ass

MSRP is the benchmark for now. Give it 3 years and let’s see

[seattlite]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Check out the new Ball gmt. Why would anyone buy anything else?

I love Tritium! If I hadn't purchased a Ball GMT a few years ago.. I would definitely pickup Ball's latest offering. Would match nicely with the BLRO I just picked up from my AD a few weeks ago as a belated Bday gift for myself.

[Rosex]

Originally Posted by ~dadam02~

These are mass made watches, they've never been rare, nor scarce. They have always been freely availablel, albeit at a premium.

Similar to diamonds, nothing particularly special about them. DeBeers stockpiles tons of the them.

Most of my non WIS friends are not aware of any Rolex shortage and could also not care less.

[Rosex]

Also one thing supporting stability of Rolex price ironically is world instability. People with cash in 3rd world countries are buying anything of value while their cash is still worth something. Due to foreign exchange control they can't simply convert to Euro or Dollars.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Rosex

Also one thing supporting stability of Rolex price ironically is world instability. People with cash in 3rd world countries are buying anything of value while their cash is still worth something. Due to foreign exchange control they can't simply convert to Euro or Dollars.

We had exactly what you speak of down here in south Florida with South Americans who saw the writing on the wall and were buying up real estate like crazy before their currencies went into the crapper. I’m sure they bought their fair share of Rolexes too.


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