Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am still watching BA and CVX on pullbacks and would like to add V, NVDA and ADBE as well

I'm looking to add V, as well as T once they roll down a bit.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm looking to add V, as well as T once they roll down a bit.

Yes, I own T as well as VZ

Hard to ignore safe dividends at this time

[BroncoOne]

VZ does provide a nice dividend.

[beshannon]

Interesting watching some technicals, several stocks MMM, BA and CVX came right back to the their 20 day EMA and sold off.

I am doing more research over the next two days as I want to see where we are on Wednesday as the rotation out of bonds and into equities for quarter end rebalancing takes place.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Interesting watching some technicals, several stocks MMM, BA and CVX came right back to the their 20 day EMA and sold off.

I am doing more research over the next two days as I want to see where we are on Wednesday as the rotation out of bonds and into equities for quarter end rebalancing takes place.

Thanks Brian, looking forward to whatever you're able to share

[jltait]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Closing the markets now is the dumbest thing we could do... you must be a “head in the sand” kinda guy?

I do like my head in the sand every now and then thankyouverymuch. I just think if the govt is asking us to pause the economy then pausing the stock market as well would be logical. Yes some people would panic if they heard the market is closed until further notice. A lot of people are panicking right now as they watch the value of their pensions/retirement accounts collapse every other day. There’s money to be made in both bull and bear markets. Most people with investments are not active investors and don’t have the sophistication or toolset to profit off of this decline and potential depression. Mothball it, and let it limit down at the open when our economy reopens.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by jltait

I do like my head in the sand every now and then thankyouverymuch. I just think if the govt is asking us to pause the economy then pausing the stock market as well would be logical. Yes some people would panic if they heard the market is closed until further notice. A lot of people are panicking right now as they watch the value of their pensions/retirement accounts collapse every other day. There’s money to be made in both bull and bear markets. Most people with investments are not active investors and don’t have the sophistication or toolset to profit off of this decline and potential depression. Mothball it, and let it limit down at the open when our economy reopens.

The market's #1 purpose and value is to provide the free or low cost exchange of goods and services. The stock market is no exception. The basis of the value of publicly traded common shares versus private companies is the liquidity. We actually pay a liquidity premium to own these shares. Said another way, if a company is private, they would be valued LESS because the share holders cannot easily access their money if they want to liquidate.

Closing the market would be catastrophic. Yes, even though your brokerage account may say -40% or -50%. Closing the marketing means it is a big fat -100% or ZERO in the time you may need the money the most. Can you imagine having to lose your house or not be able to pay your mortgage because the markets are closed and you can't sell your assets?

Closing the market would also allow the banks and financial firms to price gouge the living crap out of people. Without transparency to trades, people will enter into derivative contracts or buy/sell at prices that no one will see.

The new stimulus I believe does allow you to withdraw up to $100k from 401k without penalties and defer taxes on the gains for 3 years. It also allows for greater flexibility for 401k loans.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Thanks Brian, looking forward to whatever you're able to share

Will do my best, was supposed to be on vacation this week, so while I am not working I am at home doing things. Not sitting in front of my monitors all day like usual.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jltait

I just think if the govt is asking us to pause the economy then pausing the stock market as well would be logical.

I think this assumption is the major flaw in your argument. The government, neither state nor federal, is not asking us to pause the economy. They are asking us (in some areas) to shelter in place, i.e. stay home unless you have to go out for food. I work in an "essential" industry, so the rules don't apply to my employer, although I am working from home.

Lots of us can work from home and keep the business running.

Also, you can't "pause" the economy because there are too many things that simply cannot stop. Mainly farming and all kinds of food production (slaughter houses, etc.) and transport of same, utilities, fire and police, and of course, health care. You can't (for example) turn off the commodity markets, because that is how a lot of farmers hedge their production.

[superdog]

My guy just called me a told me he thinks it’s time to put some more cash in.

I told him to call me back when things are stable. I’m not putting money in during this volatility. I put money in when it’s up 500 points and then it goes down 2,000 points tomorrow. Not into that strategy.

I’m putting money in under two conditions:

1. Things stabilize to some degree
2. We see another big drop

Is my thinking wrong here? I don’t think I am. But no one ever thinks they are wrong until the are proven so.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

My guy just called me a told me he thinks it’s time to put some more cash in.

Does your guy work on commission?

I think your thinking is correct. The gains we saw last week and today - especially today - make no sense to me whatsoever. We have a declining economy with the number of infections and hospitalizations going up everywhere, deaths increasing and nothing is going to improve anytime soon.

Car sales are in the toilet, and that's a huge influence in the economy.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

Does your guy work on commission?

I think your thinking is correct. The gains we saw last week and today - especially today - make no sense to me whatsoever. We have a declining economy with the number of infections and hospitalizations going up everywhere, deaths increasing and nothing is going to improve anytime soon.

Car sales are in the toilet, and that's a huge influence in the economy.

Yes.

And it would sadden me if this was the case. I always found him trustworthy. And I can’t imagine the relatively small amount he would be getting in commissions would be worth it to him. But maybe. I can’t put it past anyone I suppose.

[calh22a]

Originally Posted by superdog

My guy just called me a told me he thinks it’s time to put some more cash in.

I told him to call me back when things are stable. I’m not putting money in during this volatility. I put money in when it’s up 500 points and then it goes down 2,000 points tomorrow. Not into that strategy.

I’m putting money in under two conditions:

1. Things stabilize to some degree
2. We see another big drop

Is my thinking wrong here? I don’t think I am. But no one ever thinks they are wrong until the are proven so.

I’m just slowly and gradually putting more money in every week. That way I’m not trying to time the bottom but will buy in at the bottom at some point, assuming we haven’t already seen it yet, which I don’t think we have.

[FlashinLeather]

Yet another day I though the market was going to take a bit hit (based on all of the bad news over the weekend)...any yet another day I was very wrong.

[watchmework]

imo there is going to be a lot of rebalancing going on this week...I'll be looking at potentially making some moves early next week

[austinp]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

Yet another day I though the market was going to take a bit hit (based on all of the bad news over the weekend)...any yet another day I was very wrong.

Exactly what I said to myself a few minutes ago. I'm glad I don't do it for a living.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by superdog

My guy just called me a told me he thinks it’s time to put some more cash in.

I told him to call me back when things are stable. I’m not putting money in during this volatility. I put money in when it’s up 500 points and then it goes down 2,000 points tomorrow. Not into that strategy.

I’m putting money in under two conditions:

1. Things stabilize to some degree
2. We see another big drop

Is my thinking wrong here? I don’t think I am. But no one ever thinks they are wrong until the are proven so.

I am surprised by the level of optimism in the market, and I'm long... I've freed up some cash and lightened a few positions as I also don't think we've seen the lows, or at the very least a retest of the recent lows. Having said that, it wouldn't be the first time I've been waiting while watching things rally and rally...

I expected another crappy Monday. Wrong again.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I am surprised by the level of optimism in the market, and I'm long... I've freed up some cash and lightened a few positions as I also don't think we've seen the lows, or at the very least a retest of the recent lows. Having said that, it wouldn't be the first time I've been waiting while watching things rally and rally...

I expected another crappy Monday. Wrong again.

I think we all did. At some point, this market has to correct itself the other way...

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by calh22a

i’m just slowly and gradually putting more money in every week. That way i’m not trying to time the bottom but will buy in at the bottom at some point, assuming we haven’t already seen it yet, which i don’t think we have.

+1

[BNA/LION]

I'm still Long HRTX. Had a chunk of cash on the side for a long time and will likely start putting it to work in the next few weeks. I want to see how the market handles the numbers as they grow in NYC and California, 1 MM Internationally will happen soon. Its gonna take time for stimulus checks to get out and as people start running out of money it might get weird. The market is gonna get bumpy the next few weeks. IMHO

[Bruin Watch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Interesting watching some technicals, several stocks MMM, BA and CVX came right back to the their 20 day EMA and sold off.

I am doing more research over the next two days as I want to see where we are on Wednesday as the rotation out of bonds and into equities for quarter end rebalancing takes place.

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts and whatever findings you come up with (even if during your week off). Greatly appreciated!

I feel like this market continues to throw (most) retail investors for a loop, and feel like I'm stuck (making moves feels wrong & waiting feels wrong too).

[Bruin Watch]

Originally Posted by superdog

Yes.

And it would sadden me if this was the case. I always found him trustworthy. And I can’t imagine the relatively small amount he would be getting in commissions would be worth it to him. But maybe. I can’t put it past anyone I suppose.

Received a similar call today as well. The amount mine would earn is paltry too, so can't imagine it was profit-driven.

His previous position was to wait for the next sell-off to add more money, but today thought the % of the market dropping as much as before is now lower based on the 3-day rally last week plus constructive trading Friday and today. Not suggesting to go all-in by any stretch, but that a bit more exposure in companies with good balance sheets and more virus-resistant businesses might be right now.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I think we all did. At some point, this market has to correct itself the other way...

why?

I have heard a lot of people say that the correction happened.

I don't think that it should be going up as it is. It just doesn't make sense. But I am not sure I agree either that it should tank...again.

[dkg1616]

Average down when there are pull backs - don’t try to be a hero - play long term, blue-chip Stocks

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by superdog

why?

I have heard a lot of people say that the correction happened.

I don't think that it should be going up as it is. It just doesn't make sense. But I am not sure I agree either that it should tank...again.

I'm not a professional investor but I spoke with someone close to me who has been doing this on Wall Street for over 30 years....when I asked if he thought the market has already hit the bottom, he told me the general consensus from many on Wall Street is that the market is going to test new bottom in the coming weeks....it's only one data point but he mentioned that there was only one person from Barclays who thought it already hit the bottom.

Just one data point but I thought it was worth mentioning.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by superdog

why?

I have heard a lot of people say that the correction happened.

I don't think that it should be going up as it is. It just doesn't make sense. But I am not sure I agree either that it should tank...again.

I'm by no means an expert, just my thoughts here

With everything that we're seeing, I do believe that we will test the bottom. For all the talk about things being priced in, and I'm sure there has been quite a few items of note, what I don't think the market has fully anticipated are the most recent events, including:
-social distancing to April 30th, which will affect the economy in a greater way than originally anticipated
-amusement parks closed indefinitely; these should have opened this week and they have not, which I think is a reflection of what will happen with most businesses anticipating a quick and speedy return
-an extremely large number of unemployed individuals, which will be apparent next Friday (sure, maybe the 3.2 million last week was anticipated /priced in, but anything after that? hard to believe)

Just the overall hit to the economy in general makes me believe that the 25-30% peak to trough that we saw is not enough to capture the economic hit that we will have taken.

The Q1 numbers are one thing, but the market is really showing the infancy of COVID-19's impact. Let's see what April / May / June brings to the table.

I don't mean to be negative, but it is surprising to see last week's jump and today's 3% increase, all after such bad news. Truly hoping that we're out of this, I just don't see it yet...my humble opinion, of course.

[walds11]

Originally Posted by dkg1616

Average down when there are pull backs - don’t try to be a hero - play long term, blue-chip Stocks

Great plan No f’in way I’m timing the market, especially this market!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by dkg1616

Average down when there are pull backs - don’t try to be a hero - play long term, blue-chip Stocks

Exactly right.

And exactly what I’m saying in my post. Not buying during an erratic up tick.

And only long term here. Large cap funds. Only.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by dkg1616

Average down when there are pull backs - don’t try to be a hero - play long term, blue-chip Stocks

that's the plan

[SMD]

Wait until late July when earning are released for Q2. This is a marathon not a sprint and, IMO, there is zero chance we have seen the lows when we have no clue how this is rolling through the P&L of every single company in the world.