Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Yeah, I think people will be very embarrassed about their grey purchases (assuming they bought them near the peak). Actually had a few discussions w colleagues who bought ROs, Nautilus, etc at stupid numbers, and they are kicking themselves over it now.

The grey market is propped up by straws and duct tape at this point, and continues to be subject of great market manipulation. But in the end, something has to give and I think it’s clear which way this is going to go.

I don’t for see luxury watches becoming virtually worthless of course (as was the case with beanie babies, tulips Etc.), but I am confident that pricing will revert to the mean. No more AD games of the past couple years, no absurd pricing on mass produced watches, etc.

Well put and I agree. I’ve been around the block a few times and back again I don’t think we will ever see the days of “buy new from an A D and lose half as soon as you walk out the door” kinda like cars used to be but I could be wrong. As a Rolex collector with a decent size collection I don’t want my collection to be worthless, who does, but who knows where this could end up.

As to people kicking themselves? Yep. I sure am. I’ve got just one I’m sick over And yes I am freaking kicking myself for what I paid but I legitimately had or have no shot of getting it from my A D. It’s already been years. I could have never predicted the massive drop in pricing but yes I should’ve waited. But I didn’t. However it is a watch that I absolutely love and have zero plans of ever selling it to take the a** whipping. I chalk it up to it’s a luxury purchase and thankfully I have the luxury of it not ruining my life financially.

However I still don’t like it. But thankfully all the rest came from my A D and if we or I lose money on an A D purchase then oh well. Is what it is

[RanHong]

as a watch enthusiast, it's good to see prices are returning to levels

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by The Stifmeister

There’s one member I know who openly admitted he paid $50k back in February for a white 116500. I wonder if he’s feeling okay. No sarcasm.

You wonder if @Mystro is okay. You think that he paid $50,000 and the $20,000 devaluation is somehow going to change his life? Seriously?

I'm sure he's fine. You need not worry about him.

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[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

You wonder if @Mystro is okay. You think that he paid $50,000 and the $20,000 devaluation is somehow going to change his life? Seriously?

I'm sure he's fine. You need not worry about him.

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No, that’s not the member I’m thinking of, but that explains why he’s so defensive on market pricing threads. The member I’m referring to joined in 2007.

Your $50k market analysis thread aged nicely though.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Well put and I agree. I’ve been around the block a few times and back again I don’t think we will ever see the days of “buy new from an A D and lose half as soon as you walk out the door” kinda like cars used to be but I could be wrong. As a Rolex collector with a decent size collection I don’t want my collection to be worthless, who does, but who knows where this could end up.

As to people kicking themselves? Yep. I sure am. I’ve got just one I’m sick over And yes I am freaking kicking myself for what I paid but I legitimately had or have no shot of getting it from my A D. It’s already been years. I could have never predicted the massive drop in pricing but yes I should’ve waited. But I didn’t. However it is a watch that I absolutely love and have zero plans of ever selling it to take the a** whipping. I chalk it up to it’s a luxury purchase and thankfully I have the luxury of it not ruining my life financially.

However I still don’t like it. But thankfully all the rest came from my A D and if we or I lose money on an A D purchase then oh well. Is what it is

Come on, tell us which one

Kudos taking it in stride though, you can tell you're a genuine guy here and wasn't just one of the fly by night hype guys.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

You wonder if @Mystro is okay. You think that he paid $50,000 and the $20,000 devaluation is somehow going to change his life? Seriously?

I'm sure he's fine. You need not worry about him.

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Did you buy your SS collection retail or grey? Just curious

[The Stifmeister]

Originally Posted by dmash

Come on, tell us which one

Kudos taking it in stride though, you can tell you're a genuine guy here and wasn't just one of the fly by night hype guys.

I think he’s referring to his RG Daytona OF.

+1, I agree, I enjoy reading Anthony’s posts and threads.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by dmash

Did you buy your SS collection retail or grey? Just curious

AD or grey. All through AD at MSRP

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[samuel019]

Originally Posted by dmash

Come on, tell us which one

Kudos taking it in stride though, you can tell you're a genuine guy here and wasn't just one of the fly by night hype guys.

Originally Posted by The Stifmeister

I think he’s referring to his RG Daytona OF.

+1, I agree, I enjoy reading Anthony’s posts and threads.

Thanks guys. And "ding ding ding"

What do you want for your prize?

Omg I could tell you guys some crazy stories about why I went Grey. I'll put it like this, for some reason I've been texted "6 or more Daytona if I could would you be interested" teases as I call em and never ever land any. I've reached out to another A D contact who is the freaking owner to tell him about this and he basically said wtf! We dont operate like that and never will.

Only thing I can surmise is I say yes and then I'm entered into a highly competitive pool to only lose every single freaking time. Why Idk because I have 10 years plus, no flips, and 6 digit spend history. Maybe all that is small potatoes at my A D

So having said all this now maybe you guys can understand a tad as to why I did what I did. Oh btw one of the "teases" was a freaking Rainbow. Yeah you read that right.

But as mentioned I love that freaking watch. Its going nowhere. Best looking combo IMO. Everose, Chocolate, and black. Beautiful. Hate that I'm killed in it but what can you do? Rock the hell out of it and dont read market threads reminding you of your stupidity I guess lmao

[1William]

Interesting perspective on having bought grey and having remorse for the funds spent. I have no shame or embarrassment and understand the values of the watches I purchased then and now. Hindsight is always 20/20 and many focus only on the money and forget they have some great watch[s]. Like everything else it will turn, twist, rise and fall again but I am still enjoying my watches. I am also still buying, selling and trading and most importantly, wearing the watches I own and enjoying them.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by 1William

Interesting perspective on having bought grey and having remorse for the funds spent. I have no shame or embarrassment and understand the values of the watches I purchased then and now. Hindsight is always 20/20 and many focus only on the money and forget they have some great watch[s]. Like everything else it will turn, twist, rise and fall again but I am still enjoying my watches. I am also still buying, selling and trading and most importantly, wearing the watches I own and enjoying them.

Also a good point.

Living where we do there's so many poles in the water and not many fish. Yes a lot of people have this concern but you and I have less A D's in the entire freaking state than some have in one city. Yes its all relative but this makes going Grey even more prevalent and there's no need to cry over spilled milk per se. At the end of the day if you went Grey you still have a great watch and money/value comes and goes. As I stated its a luxury purchase so if you buy it Grey you better have the luxury of it not mattering if the bottom falls out.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Very interesting point in the last youtube greys' videos: they all want to only buy watches that can be sold quick.

This means that they need to rotate the stock as often as possible with lower margin because they think that the market will still continue down for the foreseeable future.

Such a contrast with end of last year, when they were buying everything and not affraid to stock it long term, because of the upward trend.

He also has an interesting view on the market for christmas (prices may drop because everybody will suddenly dump their watches): https://youtu.be/HO3qTIxw1ug?t=2185

[train-time]

Originally Posted by The Stifmeister

No, that’s not the member I’m thinking of, but that explains why he’s so defensive on market pricing threads. The member I’m referring to joined in 2007.

Your $50k market analysis thread aged nicely though.

Not sure if this is the member being referred to here, but this member did buy a SS White 116500LN for $50K shortly before the market started to slide. I remember it because I know the AD he is referring to in this thread. It goes back to March 2022.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=846973

[Vince_76]

Mint full set RG olive DD for $49.7k and sitting. Lowest I’ve seen.

Also a mint full set Pepsi on jubilee for $19k

Another prominent grey selling a mint Pepsi for $18.75k (outside of moda)

Definitely starting to see an influx of supply and price cuts. Can’t see the environment changing anytime soon.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Very interesting point in the last youtube greys' videos: they all want to only buy watches that can be sold quick.

This means that they need to rotate the stock as often as possible with lower margin because they think that the market will still continue down for the foreseeable future.

Such a contrast with end of last year, when they were buying everything and not affraid to stock it long term, because of the upward trend.

He also has an interesting view on the market for christmas (prices may drop because everybody will suddenly dump their watches): https://youtu.be/HO3qTIxw1ug?t=2185

Well if it were anyone other than this guy I'd be like maybe he's on to something but then again he may be on to something

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Well if it were anyone other than this guy I'd be like maybe he's on to something but then again he may be on to something

I have always seen him bullish. He is now very bearish.

Most other greys are publicly less honest about the market for the coming months (still denying the new reality).

[messikens]

$17.5 for a new BLRO on this forum and 18.5 for a BLNR with about 10 bumps and both still sitting... I'd imagine the floor now must be around 14 or 15 with MODA?

This is like the reverse of the Feb/Mar timeframe this year when you could see prices rise by about $1k per week... now it's almost the complete 180

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by messikens

$17.5 for a new BLRO on this forum and 18.5 for a BLNR with about 10 bumps and both still sitting... I'd imagine the floor now must be around 14 or 15 with MODA?

This is like the reverse of the Feb/Mar timeframe this year when you could see prices rise by about $1k per week... now it's almost the complete 180

And good riddance.

[HAL330]

It’s appears we’re watching the desperate death of a lot of watch flippers in real time. Once all of their inventory is dumped we may get back to something resembling normal.

Am I saying we’ll be buying in demand sport models at the AD soon? Not really .. just reasonable wait times and reasonable market adjustments again ala 2020 and before.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by messikens

$17.5 for a new BLRO on this forum and 18.5 for a BLNR with about 10 bumps and both still sitting... I'd imagine the floor now must be around 14 or 15 with MODA?

This is like the reverse of the Feb/Mar timeframe this year when you could see prices rise by about $1k per week... now it's almost the complete 180

The floor for BLNR's on MODA seems to be around $15k. I think they should fall a lot closer to retail before it's done. There are a TON of them out there; who is buying?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by HAL330

It’s appears we’re watching the desperate death of a lot of watch flippers in real time. Once all of their inventory is dumped we may get back to something resembling normal.

Am I saying we’ll be buying in demand sport models at the AD soon? Not really .. just reasonable wait times and reasonable market adjustments again ala 2020 and before.

100% You are even more right that it must also be remembered that Rolex is very good at controlling distribution.

If suddenly there is a drop of transactions at the ADs in a region, they can redistribute to different ones.

If too many watches are suddenly waiting in the window, they are known to use their war chest to buy back (even if it is a taboo subject and many companies removed these numbers years ago from the FHS stats).

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

100% You are even more right that it must also be remembered that Rolex is very good at controlling distribution.

If suddenly there is a drop of transactions at the ADs in a region, they can redistribute to different ones.

If too many watches are suddenly waiting in the window, they are known to use their war chest to buy back (even if it is a taboo subject and many companies removed these numbers years ago from the FHS stats).

Absolutely. They (not just Rolex, but the other hyped brands) will not return to begging to sell watches .. they got spoiled. Bank on them limiting supply.

[Mifune]

Just a little bit more...

[Vince_76]

116508 Daytona mint full set for 67k and sitting. Crazy how much these have dropped, and no bottoming yet.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by HAL330

Absolutely. They (not just Rolex, but the other hyped brands) will not return to begging to sell watches .. they got spoiled. Bank on them limiting supply.

This is assuming the demand remains as strong as now for a long time. As and when demand drops, prices has to drop and Rolex will no longer be an attractive carrot. It’s happened before and it may happen again.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

116508 Daytona mint full set for 67k and sitting. Crazy how much these have dropped, and no bottoming yet.

This listing was posted about an hour ago. I think it will be sold. But yes it’s good we are seeing much lower prices

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

This listing was posted about an hour ago. I think it will be sold. But yes it’s good we are seeing much lower prices

We will see. “Deals” get sold in minutes. This hasn’t so far. Relatively high velocity on moda.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

116508 Daytona mint full set for 67k and sitting. Crazy how much these have dropped, and no bottoming yet.

Originally Posted by Vince_76

We will see. “Deals” get sold in minutes. This hasn’t so far. Relatively high velocity on moda.

Yeah I saw that one.

What I thought was also very telling is that one of the bigger sellers on Moda through out a 60k wire offer

Like that was reasonable and an offer the seller might take. Maybe he will. What happened to the 120k for this model lol

Tell what’s also nuts is if you go to a lot of our Trusted Sellers personal website you still see some crazy asking prices. Granted there are exceptions. Guessing they are hoping that the average watch shopper doesn’t have access to Moda and they may catch a big fish.

I’ve been looking at the 126619, so called “Cookie Monster” and omg that watch is taking a beating. One guy offered 20k on an auction for one. Then someone pledged “32.5 I guess”

I still think no matter how bad prices get In the rest of the world A D’s will still act as if everything is business as normal. Lists are still waaaaaay to long before any panic sets in. Just saying

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

This listing was posted about an hour ago. I think it will be sold. But yes it’s good we are seeing much lower prices

4 hours and still sitting.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

4 hours and still sitting.

Thanks for the updates, please continue to post, much appreciated.

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