Talking Stocks 2.0

[m j b]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

Anybody else wake up to find LK lose 80% of its value?

Saw that on CNBC at lunch, where some guy famous for shorting stocks had covered his LK short this morning. They didn't say why it plummeted.

Buying opportunity now, perhaps?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

Saw that on CNBC at lunch, where some guy famous for shorting stocks had covered his LK short this morning. They didn't say why it plummeted.

Buying opportunity now, perhaps?

The COO fabricated sales figures. If it were me, I'd cut loose now.

[m j b]

Oops, "financial misconduct" investigation on LK. That's not good.

[77T]

Originally Posted by m j b

Oops, "financial misconduct" investigation on LK. That's not good.

The COO was fired for faking transactions. That would trigger an investigation itself. But they were uncompetitive to begin with.


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[FlashinLeather]

I just got in on a small play on LK for 6.55. Its a gamble but one that won't hurt too bad if it goes south. Its a big scandal but at the same time this is a rival of Starbucks in China, I don't think they are going to be closing their doors.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly, not looking for bottoms, there are always values to be found.

I continue to analyze various equities and look at the overall tone of the markets. The bounce today (at least at the open) is for several reasons, oil is higher, too much of a sell off yesterday, a 14 multiple on the S&P is 2350 so we are closer to a discount to fair value than we are being over valued. That is enough for me to go looking for either averaging down opportunities or new positions.

Looking at MS, WBA, DIS (upgrade) and CL today

What is exactly your forward PE on the S&P?

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Haha, the power of that little blue bird...

Based on a phone call from the 3 most hated men in the universe

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

I just got in on a small play on LK for 6.55. Its a gamble but one that won't hurt too bad if it goes south. Its a big scandal but at the same time this is a rival of Starbucks in China, I don't think they are going to be closing their doors.

I wouldn't trust anything in China or coming out of China...

[Hard_Six]

Anyone nibbling at these airlines today?

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Hard_Six

Anyone nibbling at these airlines today?

I never touch airlines.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I never touch airlines.

Gotta wipe down the seats first

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Gotta wipe down the seats first

They're all sticky and gooey

[logo]

What’s up with futures? This market makes no sense.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by logo

What’s up with futures? This market makes no sense.

The market has voted solely on FED monetary policy for some time. If the market is up, there is cheap money available to flow into the market, that's all.

Don't overthink it. Fundamentals are meaningless. There's very few companies in good shape and their stocks have been pretty much flat through this.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by EEpro

MGM was my corona bailout. I got really lucky and rode it until bailing at $14.11 the other day. Made me whole for 2020.

Funny thing was I got out of MGM last year in Dec. Heard from a colleague that they plummeted as low as $6 when the panic started but was late to the party.

[BroncoOne]

Acquisition target, maybe. Fraud, but LK does have many physical locations in China, a customer base that comes with personal info on nearly 100% of them (LK lives on their phones) and robust technology.

Look for a player that wants a footprint in China.

Of course, it is highly unlikely that any M&A is happening in the near future and LK could easily just bleed out before a buyer develops the ability or even inclination inclination to spend/raise money when the economy recovers.

[Flyinghunter]

Been a long day at my hospital... but can someone please educate me on how the stock market (Dow) goes up 469 on the same day jobless claims go up to a never seen before in the history of history 6.6M?

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

Anybody else wake up to find LK lose 80% of its value?

Yeah, over my morning coffee . Pissed for sure, but not a big hit so going to let it sit as it is for now.


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[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by Flyinghunter

Been a long day at my hospital... but can someone please educate me on how the stock market (Dow) goes up 469 on the same day jobless claims go up to a never seen before in the history of history 6.6M?

My opinion is people are still thinking the stimulus package will “fix” things, but as the numbers get worse (infections, deaths, and unemployment) and then companies start reducing service further, complaining more bailouts are needed, closing, and reporting missed earnings, the market will adjust downward again, possibly many more times.

[Chromosome]

I sold all my stocks and bought silver ETFs

[Jacqueline]

Sold all. Bought sqqq to be inverse the market. Also day trading gold miner stocks.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Jacqueline

Sold all. Bought sqqq to be inverse the market. Also day trading gold miner stocks.

Well, futures are down, so so far the sqqq looks like a good move.

Are gold miners that volatile?

Did everyone see what happened to TSLA yesterday? Apparently first quarter deliveries were much better than expected, and the stock was up after hours and is still up 15% pre-market. That's long been a stock of Elon cool-aid drinkers, and you may recall that went to $900 in late February.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

What is exactly your forward PE on the S&P?

That would be impossible to calculate at this point

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by m j b

Well, futures are down, so so far the sqqq looks like a good move.

Are gold miners that volatile?

Did everyone see what happened to TSLA yesterday? Apparently first quarter deliveries were much better than expected, and the stock was up after hours and is still up 15% pre-market. That's long been a stock of Elon cool-aid drinkers, and you may recall that went to $900 in late February.

Nuts... I’d like to know what TSLA sales were last few weeks of March.

Gold miners should be able to capitalize on high gold spot and cheap oil... there’s lot of bumpiness in the gold market these days though, certain companies and refiners are closed. Hence the crazy premiums on the consumer stuff. Consensus is you’re better off having exposure to gold through actual the metal and producers. I’d avoid GLD like the plague.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by beshannon

That would be impossible to calculate at this point

That’s what I thought too, you had me confused as you referenced “multiples” in relation to an SnP low point being closer to discount than over valued. Sounded like you knew something we didn’t.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

That’s what I thought too, you had me confused as you referenced “multiples” in relation to an SnP low point being closer to discount than over valued. Sounded like you knew something we didn’t.

Just following analysis from Art Hogan on Bloomberg

Here is more detailed analysis on a historical basis

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...k-market-cheap

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Flyinghunter

Been a long day at my hospital... but can someone please educate me on how the stock market (Dow) goes up 469 on the same day jobless claims go up to a never seen before in the history of history 6.6M?

Because this was known news.

I try to remove emotion from investing. World wide emotions are running really high with the constant news barrage.

For me as a long term investor the situation is not unlike other stock market downturns. I am NOT trying to minimize the human toll. Rather I am trying to understand the markets.

The world will solve this, the worlds economies will return to production and yes even growth.

When the markets look forward they are taking the current values (as best they can) into account and making decisions on where companies will be 12-18 months from now.

With all the downside, there are still parts of the economy that are doing well and will continue to do even better as people adjust to the situation. I have tried to detail some of them as I lay out my analysis and trades.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

Did everyone see what happened to TSLA yesterday? Apparently first quarter deliveries were much better than expected, and the stock was up after hours and is still up 15% pre-market. That's long been a stock of Elon cool-aid drinkers, and you may recall that went to $900 in late February.

We own some TSLA and at $450, I nearly added to my position but thought better of it. I knew their earnings report would be out any day, and I did not expect them to hit the estimates (like most people).

By 405 pm, the stock was already soaring...goes to show you that you just never know. Again, we're long-term investors so it wouldn't have hurt either way to add a few, but their are other more reliable equities that we're looking at adding to that it made sense to just hold out.

[beshannon]

701K jobs lost in March, worse than expected though I am not sure that you could not have expected worse.

Futures were briefly positive as traders anticipated a better number but they have fallen back again.

This does not change my view, I am looking for value in Financials and Industrials as well as Consumer Staples.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

701K jobs lost in March, worse than expected though I am not sure that you could not have expected worse.

Futures were briefly positive as traders anticipated a better number but they have fallen back again.

This does not change my view, I am looking for value in Financials and Industrials as well as Consumer Staples.

Your thoughts on XLI?