Talking Stocks 2.0

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by bryan13

So whats the opinion on LK? at $4.50 a share its pennies on the dollar compared to their 52 week high. What happens now that they have discovered the financial misconduct?

I think you see $0 before you see $10

[gnuyork]

Well my wife did very well toady day trading. Much better than I did... She was also much ballsier than I was. Proud to say she made over $4K today. I reminded her that's half a Sub (give or take)

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Be careful, almost every one in that space is over leveraged, prices cannot support debt service, expansion, capital expenses etc. There will almost certainly be consolidation.

Interesting ... I see many of the names here in Canada as being reasonably valued with bullet proof balance sheets....

Edit: 3 of the 5 top banks just today reiterated no plans to cut their dividends and these banks have never in their history cut their dividends, even through the depression, and last economic meltdown in 2009.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by bryan13

So whats the opinion on LK? at $4.50 a share its pennies on the dollar compared to their 52 week high. What happens now that they have discovered the financial misconduct?

I’d stay away. Take a look at their finances.

[Duey]

Everybody is talking about the number of new cases over the weekend in New York City, the U.S.’s epicenter for the virus, rose by 30.4 percent versus last week, down from a 46.1 percent jump the week prior. But did anybody see the data that shows that No new tests were done on Sunday to Monday in New York or California ??? Where as Louisiana did do tests and from Sunday to Monday they had a 350% increase in new cases. We're getting played with the numbers here and the market is loving it.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bryan13

So whats the opinion on LK? at $4.50 a share its pennies on the dollar compared to their 52 week high. What happens now that they have discovered the financial misconduct?

Fraud company

Originally Posted by brandrea

Interesting ... I see many of the names here in Canada as being reasonably valued with bullet proof balance sheets....

Edit: 3 of the 5 top banks just today reiterated no plans to cut their dividends and these banks have never in their history cut their dividends, even through the depression, and last economic meltdown in 2009.

Sounds like you did your homework, I do not pay attention to Canadian companies

[m j b]

LK sells coffee for below cost to build up numbers, which were enhanced to boot. If you insist on throwing away your money, at least do it on an American company.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Duey

Everybody is talking about the number of new cases over the weekend in New York City, the U.S.’s epicenter for the virus, rose by 30.4 percent versus last week, down from a 46.1 percent jump the week prior. But did anybody see the data that shows that No new tests were done on Sunday to Monday in New York or California ??? Where as Louisiana did do tests and from Sunday to Monday they had a 350% increase in new cases. We're getting played with the numbers here and the market is loving it.

I heard through a friend with family contacts in Italy that some people are just dying at home now... thus causing the death count to be underreported since they weren’t also counted as positive.

The decrease in deaths that Cuomo said was a glimmer of hope in possible early indication of flattening was a decrease of 40... yep, just 40 deaths. That’s what some are saying are turning the tides.

It’s in governments best interest to keep us stupid yet hopeful. Hope they are right in the optimism but I don’t buy it.

[m j b]

I believe I heard on the news that they are not testing here in NC any more, so numbers of infected are only those being hospitalized. And people are not staying home like they should.

So, if virus numbers go up, nationally, how will the market react?

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Congrats, Nick! Nice work.

Can't fight the tape today.

Thanks Bill! Honestly would have been better in the long run to just hold. But I took the opportunity to recover some losses. I am thinking not much big moves from here on unless opportunity presents itself.

[Bruin Watch]

Originally Posted by m j b

I believe I heard on the news that they are not testing here in NC any more, so numbers of infected are only those being hospitalized. And people are not staying home like they should.

So, if virus numbers go up, nationally, how will the market react?

Well.. given the number of recent days where negative news has equated to positive market moves, your guess is as good as mine! Still think we have a ton of headline risk to combat with, the virus numbers being one part of that.

Not good to hear about NC. I've been shocked at how well the large majority of people in LA have been following Garcetti's direction during the outbreak. Then again, a surfer in Manhattan Beach was fined $1,000 for deciding the waves were too good to be missed.

[beshannon]

Looks like follow through so far on the futures, oil is up, VIX is down again

Several analysts still calling for a retest which could still happen. I am focused on the current trade and where I see equities moving.

I sold into the rally yesterday and will take more profits today as I continue to rebalance

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Looks like follow through so far on the futures, oil is up, VIX is down again

Several analysts still calling for a retest which could still happen. I am focused on the current trade and where I see equities moving.

I sold into the rally yesterday and will take more profits today as I continue to rebalance

I'm sure they're not at all correlated but the UK markets have shot up this morning.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm sure they're not at all correlated but the UK markets have shot up this morning.

Oil is the big driver this morning after Asia markets did well. Stabilization or rise in oil prices indicates forward looking business activity picking up.

I think some buyers are too far ahead of the curve.

In the end the panic selling on the way down and the panic buying on the way up make little sense. I would rather we have a slower broader based move higher.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Oil is the big driver this morning after Asia markets did well. Stabilization or rise in oil prices indicates forward looking business activity picking up.

I think some buyers are too far ahead of the curve.

In the end the panic selling on the way down and the panic buying on the way up make little sense. I would rather we have a slower broader based move higher.

Thank you. I continue to watch closely and learn.

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Oil is the big driver this morning after Asia markets did well. Stabilization or rise in oil prices indicates forward looking business activity picking up.

I think some buyers are too far ahead of the curve.

In the end the panic selling on the way down and the panic buying on the way up make little sense. I would rather we have a slower broader based move higher.

My (real guy) called yesterday and said according to all the charts the bottom was in last week, its time to get back in and what would I like to do. I just dont see how that is yet....He also gave me the its forward looking and the worst is priced in. Besides Chicago it really hasn't moved through the midwest, also what about everyone being off for 3-6 weeks. I can only imagine a huge retest soon.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Thank you. I continue to watch closely and learn.

My pleasure

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...tuesday-040720

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

My (real guy) called yesterday and said according to all the charts the bottom was in last week, its time to get back in and what would I like to do. I just dont see how that is yet....He also gave me the its forward looking and the worst is priced in. Besides Chicago it really hasn't moved through the midwest, also what about everyone being off for 3-6 weeks. I can only imagine a huge retest soon.

The market makes fools of everyone eventually.

All I know is that there are values now that I want to own and if they go lower I will buy more. I cannot worry about what might happen.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

I think you see $0 before you see $10

+1 some small plays, but this one is rotten.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Duey

Everybody is talking about the number of new cases over the weekend in New York City, the U.S.’s epicenter for the virus, rose by 30.4 percent versus last week, down from a 46.1 percent jump the week prior. But did anybody see the data that shows that No new tests were done on Sunday to Monday in New York or California ??? Where as Louisiana did do tests and from Sunday to Monday they had a 350% increase in new cases. We're getting played with the numbers here and the market is loving it.

That's exactly what is happening right now, so it's best just to ride that wave. I believe we are going to level up based on the confidence in the numbers (market seems to have more confidence that I do), then hit the skids again hard once the damage is revealed. We are only getting the play-by-play on the virus, the economic portion will be revealed per quarter.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

In the end the panic selling on the way down and the panic buying on the way up make little sense.

Some pundits believe that a lot of that is due to index buying, AKA passive investing via ETFs.

I too am in the camp that believes that there will be more bad news and the market will tumble from its current position, however I don't think it's going to retest the lows from March 23 (??) and so I decided last night to stick with my positions and only add more.

Until 30 minutes later when I thought, hey, if the market is up tomorrow, maybe I should sell everything and hope for a better entry point?

Commission free trading can be a deadly trap.

Then I thought, I should just sell the positions that I don't like and keep the rest, but I've already done that and I like the companies that I have now. I think they're all good long-term plays.

Yes, I am fickle.

I did play a little with options yesterday, making enough (almost by accident) to pay for an RSC service on a submariner (ORC) but fortunately stopped myself going short right before the market took off on its last little tear before the close. That kind of action tells me that there is way too much FOMO and as Brian wrote, panic buying. That concerns me.

[superdog]

If this holds I’m not far too from even.

From at one point being very very far down.

Feels like a good play to sell all equities, wait for another drop, and then jump back in. I mean, cmon, this is going back down again. How can it not? Q2 will inevitably be abysmal.

I won’t do this though. I’m long. That’s the strategy. Hold at all costs and don’t try and time the market.

But damn it feels like a good opportunity to get out for a short bit. And then jump back in with a vengeance when things go back down.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Then I thought, I should just sell the positions that I don't like and keep the rest, but I've already done that and I like the companies that I have now. I think they're all good long-term plays.

This is my approach, I have core holdings that are long term dividend paying stocks with gains that I keep. MSFT, JPM, HD and ABBV are all no-sell for me.

Then I have positions that I trade and raise/lower cash depending on the circumstances.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I mean, cmon, this is going back down again. How can it not? Q2 will inevitably be abysmal.

While I do not disagree, it seems obvious with Q2 and Q3 that will be bad, to say that the markets must go back down seems obvious.

I am looking out 12-18 months and if the companies can ride through this then their uptick in business will get things back on track. Yes some could panic sell but that would only be another buying opportunity for me and for the positions I hold, it would be a chance to average down.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

While I do not disagree, it seems obvious with Q2 and Q3 that will be bad to say that they markets must go back down.

I am looking out 12-18 months and if the companies can ride through this then their uptick in business will get things back on track. Yes some could panic sell but that would only be another buying opportunity for me and for the positions I hold, it would be a chance to average down.

This. Hold positions if they're in valuable companies and average down when it dips.

I don't intend to sell anything in the portfolio; we don't have anything that jumps out and says it can't weather the storm or be a solid investment in a year or so.

[SpeakWithMichael]

Originally Posted by superdog

If this holds I’m not far too from even.

From at one point being very very far down.

Feels like a good play to sell all equities, wait for another drop, and then jump back in. I mean, cmon, this is going back down again. How can it not? Q2 will inevitably be abysmal.

I won’t do this though. I’m long. That’s the strategy. Hold at all costs and don’t try and time the market.

But damn it feels like a good opportunity to get out for a short bit. And then jump back in with a vengeance when things go back down.

That's what I would do. The market is way too high for what the future inevitably holds. I'd do that before Friday.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by superdog

But damn it feels like a good opportunity to get out for a short bit. And then jump back in with a vengeance when things go back down.

This is what I've been thinking and doing on the first drop.

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by superdog

If this holds I’m not far too from even.

From at one point being very very far down.

Feels like a good play to sell all equities, wait for another drop, and then jump back in. I mean, cmon, this is going back down again. How can it not? Q2 will inevitably be abysmal.

I won’t do this though. I’m long. That’s the strategy. Hold at all costs and don’t try and time the market.

But damn it feels like a good opportunity to get out for a short bit. And then jump back in with a vengeance when things go back down.

Maybe just trim a few positions now and add on dips vs going all-in or all-out. Not advice just a suggestion

[beshannon]

Solid opening, talk of pension fund buying to catch up on performance, the bond market is calm, the dollar continues to weaken, likely bringing in foreign money into the US markets.

Financials, Tech, Energy, Materials and Industrials all performing well

[austinp]

Originally Posted by superdog

If this holds I’m not far too from even.

From at one point being very very far down.

Feels like a good play to sell all equities, wait for another drop, and then jump back in. I mean, cmon, this is going back down again. How can it not? Q2 will inevitably be abysmal.

I won’t do this though. I’m long. That’s the strategy. Hold at all costs and don’t try and time the market.

But damn it feels like a good opportunity to get out for a short bit. And then jump back in with a vengeance when things go back down.

Man, you have really managed your investments well if you are even now. Well done. I'm still down 19% from the high. I haven't sold anything and looking back I wish I had. I've bought the same dollar amount each week no matter what. So far that's working for me. I think I'll be back at my highs before the averages get back to theirs. Good luck everyone!

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