Talking Stocks 2.0

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

TD Ameritrade, which I have nothing but good things to say about it.

That's what I use, but I was under the impression you couldn't trade after hours unless you use Think or Swim, which I have but I stare at it like it's a foreign language.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

That's what I use, but I was under the impression you couldn't trade after hours unless you use Think or Swim, which I have but I stare at it like it's a foreign language.

I don't use think or swim; I have an option when buying / selling to put in Day + ext. for limit orders.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Futures are up this AM.

Amazon announced yesterday that they will suspend their shipping service (non-Amazon shipments) because business is so strong. Story here. Bullish for AMZN as well as UPS and FDX? I own UPS but not the other two. I thought Amazon stopped using FedEx?

I'm not buying anything today except puts.

I own UPS as well as AMZN

Amazon stopped using Fed Ex ground for third party deliveries last year. In any case UPS is a better company on paper and I will stick with my positions

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

That's what I use, but I was under the impression you couldn't trade after hours unless you use Think or Swim, which I have but I stare at it like it's a foreign language.

You can trade after hours on TD but I would recommend learning TOS. There are plenty of tutorials out there on the software. I can't trade without it.

[beshannon]

I am not a fan of the source of this article and everyone needs to do their own homework

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...uffetts-a.aspx

Most of what is here is directed at novice investors with questions

[Duey]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not a fan of the source of this article and everyone needs to do their own homework

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...uffetts-a.aspx

Most of what is here is directed at novice investors with questions

Agreed

Lets not forget to mention CNBC too

[beshannon]

News outside the financial world causing markets to move higher

Here is what we do know, earnings will be bad, jobless claims will be bad, markets may be getting ahead of themselves.

Markets are always forward looking. While I would not be surprised by a retest of the lows, remember, the longer and farther we move away from the lows, the less likely a retest will occur.

I am not chasing with my cash as I still have equity exposure and had previously averaged down in many names.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

News outside the financial world causing markets to move higher

Here is what we do know, earnings will be bad, jobless claims will be bad, markets may be getting ahead of themselves.

Markets are always forward looking. While I would not be surprised by a retest of the lows, remember, the longer and farther we move away from the lows, the less likely a retest will occur.

I am not chasing with my cash as I still have equity exposure and had previously averaged down in many names.

One historical that we can look at though is the 2008 financial crisis; we didn't hit the actual low until 2009. While we obviously can't claim a one for one here, I do think that we still have a ways to go down.

You and I are generally on the same page though - disciplined investing, don't dump all the cash into the market now and have a plan.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

One historical that we can look at though is the 2008 financial crisis; we didn't hit the actual low until 2009. While we obviously can't claim a one for one here, I do think that we still have a ways to go down.

You and I are generally on the same page though - disciplined investing, don't dump all the cash into the market now and have a plan.

True enough.

The financial crisis was different fundamentally in that the entire financial system was on the verge of collapse.

In this case we have a health crisis that is slowing or stopping productivity.

People want to work and spend, things may change but I favor a quicker rebound than in 2008.

[Tha Baron]

Here is what I see is the major risks:

- The market seems to be hinging everything on the appearance of flattening in NY and no regard for economic impact

- Some will think we are out of the woods, this will lead them be careless (possible phase 2 infection wave)

- Stimulus has been great for early headlines, but skeptical it will have half of the intended impact

- How many missed rent payments across the country equate to missing income for investors, senior citizens, etc? (i.e. I can claim unemployment because someone missed rent)

- Unintended consequences of shut down will linger for months. I cannot fathom how we think this global economy can just flip "ON"

But hey S&P is now at February 2019 levels, so yeah, I wasn't a buyer then either.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

True enough.

The financial crisis was different fundamentally in that the entire financial system was on the verge of collapse.

In this case we have a health crisis that is slowing or stopping productivity.

People want to work and spend, things may change but I favor a quicker rebound than in 2008.

I had a conversation with a friend of mine this morning - what do we favor, an L or W-shaped recovery? As younger (mid-30's) investors, it was a no-brainer - the W wins.

With the L, we remain stagnant; a couple percent up here, down there, etc. with no real movement. The W at least gives us the opportunity to grab larger discounts for the future (like the March 23rd lows).

I think that is the real question, as 20% from the highs seems to be where we hit the barrier. Are we on the horizontal leg of the L (for the near future), or are we at the peak middle of the W, only to go crashing down?

I think we can all agree that this will not be a V-shaped recovery.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Here is what I see is the major risks:

- The market seems to be hinging everything on the appearance of flattening in NY and no regard for economic impact

- Some will think we are out of the woods, this will lead them be careless (possible phase 2 infection wave)

- Stimulus has been great for early headlines, but skeptical it will have half of the intended impact

- How many missed rent payments across the country equate to missing income for investors, senior citizens, etc? (i.e. I can claim unemployment because someone missed rent)

- Unintended consequences of shut down will linger for months. I cannot fathom how we think this global economy can just flip "ON"

But hey S&P is now at February 2019 levels, so yeah, I wasn't a buyer then either.

Excellent analysis and I agree with all of it.

In my view baring re-infection waves, I believe people will work to get things back up and running. Does that mean immediately or within weeks? No but I believe that within 12 months we can be doing much better and the markets can be higher.

In the time it takes to get there I do expect both ups and downs in the market as both the expert analyst and the novice investor are both confused.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I had a conversation with a friend of mine this morning - what do we favor, an L or W-shaped recovery? As younger (mid-30's) investors, it was a no-brainer - the W wins.

With the L, we remain stagnant; a couple percent up here, down there, etc. with no real movement. The W at least gives us the opportunity to grab larger discounts for the future (like the March 23rd lows).

I think that is the real question, as 20% from the highs seems to be where we hit the barrier. Are we on the horizontal leg of the L (for the near future), or are we at the peak middle of the W, only to go crashing down?

I think we can all agree that this will not be a V-shaped recovery.

impossible to say. I think we can say this is probably a solid entry point for ~10 years from now and beyond; otherwise though who knows.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I think we can all agree that this will not be a V-shaped recovery.

I am not sure I agree.

We can have a V if the upside does not return to previous highs. Again, people will want to get back to work and productivity will resume.

There will be lingering effects just like there will be improved performance for some groups and stocks. If people cannot go to Disney, they could go to Six Flags. If people cannot buy a car they could buy something for their house.

I see too many people being negative about virtually every aspect of this for the short and long term and laying too many conditions out for the improvement to come. I am a bit of a contrarian here and believe this will improve faster than some believe.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not sure I agree.

We can have a V if the upside does not return to previous highs. Again, people will want to get back to work and productivity will resume.

There will be lingering effects just like there will be improved performance for some groups and stocks. If people cannot go to Disney, they could go to Six Flags. If people cannot buy a car they could buy something for their house.

I see too many people being negative about virtually every aspect of this for the short and long term and laying too many conditions out for the improvement to come. I am a bit of a contrarian here and believe this will improve faster than some believe.

I don't disagree with you there. My family (wife and 2 young kids) are raring to get back out there and hit up shops, restaurants and travel. If you've seen my previous posts around TRF, you'll probably notice how much we love to travel. I think there are many out there that are just like us.

Definitely like the varied opinions here, and maybe my statement about everyone agreeing that we aren't in a V-shape is a bit off.

[beshannon]

Listening to some technical analysis on CNBC right now, watch S&P 2620 over the next few days, this is a critical support level and the longer we can hold above it the more favorable the move higher.

Remember markets are closed on Friday.

[YYZed]

This market seems crazy to me; likes it’s rewarding people who ignore major concerns with economy, jobs, etc. and who just dive in. I don’t think I can invest that way despite watching stocks I’m following jump 5-10% today (again). Madness I tell yah.

Edit: Though could it also be that Bernie dropped out?

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/0...-equities.html

Nothing new here, but decent discussion points for those that are just passing through this thread.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by YYZed

This market seems crazy to me; likes it’s rewarding people who ignore major concerns with economy, jobs, etc. and who just dive in. I don’t think I can invest that way despite watching stocks I’m following jump 5-10% today (again). Madness I tell yah.

I concur. I'm still not selling my long positions, but I am getting kind of nervous. We are still waiting for many areas of the country to peak in hospitalizations and deaths, and the brief blip of improvement in NYC seems to have fallen back. I just don't see why everyone is getting excited about stocks, except FOMO.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Here is what I see is the major risks:

- The market seems to be hinging everything on the appearance of flattening in NY and no regard for economic impact

- Some will think we are out of the woods, this will lead them be careless (possible phase 2 infection wave)

- Stimulus has been great for early headlines, but skeptical it will have half of the intended impact
...

This last one is probably the most significant problem. The stimulus won't have 1/10 of its intended/stated impact on workers. The amount of stimulus money going to workers is paltry, and that's why it won't significantly mitigate the recession. It doesn't matter how much you help businesses, without workers spending money, our economy shrinks fast. Once the temporary excitement passes and people start using the R-word daily, I think the Market will head much lower.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not sure I agree.

We can have a V if the upside does not return to previous highs. Again, people will want to get back to work and productivity will resume.

There will be lingering effects just like there will be improved performance for some groups and stocks. If people cannot go to Disney, they could go to Six Flags. If people cannot buy a car they could buy something for their house.

I see too many people being negative about virtually every aspect of this for the short and long term and laying too many conditions out for the improvement to come. I am a bit of a contrarian here and believe this will improve faster than some believe.

I hope you are right. I know people want to get back to work, but unfortunately many of their employers will have gone bankrupt or at least downsized by the time the virus passes. People wanted to get back to work in 2008, and that recession dragged on as unemployment remained high. I realize the underlying causes of these recessions are different, but the organized response this time (so far) has been eerily similar to the ineffective response of 2008. Hopefully, more meaningful and productive steps will be taken this time.

[ELLimon]

I want to add something...

“Sell in may and stay away...”. Many reasons for it Summer slack, no major holidays, etc.

Now how this macro economic factor will play with pandemic recovery overlapping with summer slack ?

Will it make us forget everything, travel party and spend then have an second pandemic wave in December ? Or bad economics will compound with it to create a more sustained L shaped market ?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by m j b

I concur. I'm still not selling my long positions, but I am getting kind of nervous. We are still waiting for many areas of the country to peak in hospitalizations and deaths, and the brief blip of improvement in NYC seems to have fallen back. I just don't see why everyone is getting excited about stocks, except FOMO.

NY's numbers are better, but for fatalities. But that is a lagging indicator. Most of those who died would have been on ventilators for 14+ days and they would have been infected much earlier than that. Fingers crossed, NY continues to trend down.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ELLimon

“Sell in may and stay away...”. Many reasons for it Summer slack, no major holidays, etc.

Statistics show that this is rarely a good idea

[cornerstore]

The Bots started trading Mar.23 . Market climbing on technical trading and manipulation. Plunge protection team plus trading bots = Big Con

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/03/...ed-electronic/

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

The Bots started trading Mar.23 . Market climbing on technical trading and manipulation. Plunge protection team plus trading bots = Big Con

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/03/...ed-electronic/

NYSE has been almost 100% electronic for some time now... all those people you see on the floor is mostly theater and good for the brand. Sure those people can start keying in orders or have a POW wow on price if they need to resume trading on a stock, but execution is all done electronically.

[Jacqueline]

2008 I did not know a single unemployed person, yes they went froM 6 figures to 30k working retail but they had a job. Now I do not know a single person working a full schedule. All elective (profitable) Medical is shut down. That alone is a big chunk of gdp. The economy is fornicated.

[beshannon]

Lots of news this morning, markets are closed tomorrow.

Oil is the big story right now, futures are flat, the market is slightly over bought at this point. I will likely do nothing today

[m j b]

My daily NYT headlines email has a section labeled "business" and the three stories listed there today are:

"Never Seen Anything Like It": Cars Line up for Miles at Food Banks

31% Can't Pay the Rent: "It's only going to get worse"

A Rush To Stocks, Driven by Bargains and Bravery

Interesting dichotomy.

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by m j b

My daily NYT headlines email has a section labeled "business" and the three stories listed there today are:

"Never Seen Anything Like It": Cars Line up for Miles at Food Banks

31% Can't Pay the Rent: "It's only going to get worse"

A Rush To Stocks, Driven by Bargains and Bravery

Interesting dichotomy.

And yet somehow it goes higher...I don't get it. I know forward looking...lol