Talking Stocks 2.0

[Naples09]

And reports of 3Qs of negative GDP coming out from the street.

[healer]

Good morning, not sure why stocks keep going up but who am I to complain;) Almost recovered all my lost. Looking for a exit strategy and just keep my long. I have a feeling starting next week everything will be up. We will see. To sell or not to sell..... the last few days has been fantastic:)

[Naples09]

6.6 claims vs est 5

[beshannon]

Futures jumped to flat (+150) after 6.6mm jobless claims vs 5mm projected, bonds are not reacting, oil is slightly higher.

Known news was already going to be bad, the slight tic higher was not meaningful to the markets at this point.

Fed announcing additional programs to inject liquidity and support the economy.

Will be interesting to see where we open and where we are at 10. I am expecting a down close ahead of a long weekend however, if there is an upward move I may take profits in some of the more recent purchases I have made.

Fed announcement



And the Futures at 9 are spiking higher +331

This is why you do not try to time the markets. If you did nothing you would not be down much over the longer term after being up 29% in 2019. If you sold at the bottom now you are playing catch up after booking losses.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Futures jumped to flat (+150) after 6.6m jobless claims vs 5m projected, bonds are not reacting, oil is slightly higher.

Known news was already going to be bad, the slight tic higher was not meaningful to the markets at this point.

Fed announcing additional programs to inject liquidity and support the economy.

Will be interesting to see where we open and where we are at 10. I am expecting a down close ahead of a long weekend however, if there is an upward move I may take profits in some of the more recent purchases I have made.

I was thinking the same.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

And yet somehow it goes higher...I don't get it. I know forward looking...lol

There’s a saying from legendary investor Benjamin Graham that the market is a voting machine in the short run but a weighing machine in the long run. A stock’s particular price might be up or down on a given day, but ultimately, the underlying fundamentals of a business are what matters.

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covi...hecks-covid-19

The markets are moving higher in anticipation of a recovery. Simple. Many do not agree and that is fine. Today, tomorrow, who knows? Where will we be 12-18 months from here? IMHO, higher. Some want to buy down here because of the opportunity it creates.

Conversely in this discussion, if you have cash, went to cash or are not invested at all, what do you do?

[77T]

Originally Posted by Naples09

6.6 claims vs est 5

Not a shock - it’s more of a measure of the States individual capability to process the new unemployment claims.

If all the unemployment systems were up to speed then we might have seen a numbers like 10 million, 15 million and 20 million in each of the past 3 reporting periods. I think the aggregate unemployed is now nearly 30% overall.

Thought the Fed’s timing to announce the $2.3T in additional economic support programs was interesting.

From my friends own experiences, all the programs thus far plus the new ones have one thing in common. Getting the economic support from any program requires an online process being run on systems that are crushed by undersized web ports and even fewer back-end database ports.

Like a 36” water main being tapped by a 1/4” drip irrigation tube.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[beshannon]

NKE gets an upgrade and PFE starting trials for COVID-19 vaccine, XPO getting coverage, GE pulls guidance

Might be some opportunities for rotation today, will be interesting

Currently 400mm to buy at the open

[JParm]

I just took a bite of BABA. There are still some great value at today's prices and I don't think people need to necessarily be afraid to nibble, just don't dive all in.

[avidflyer]

Just a quick glance and I don’t understand how the airlines and Ford can be up....some 10 percent or more..,I get it, but wonder how much is fomo? I think the airlines will be crushed for years....at least to get back to the 2019 numbers....hell what do I know.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

Just a quick glance and I don’t understand how the airlines and Ford can be up....some 10 percent or more..,I get it, but wonder how much is fomo? I think the airlines will be crushed for years....at least to get back to the 2019 numbers....hell what do I know.

Just take a look at this entire thread.

There are always people looking for a fast trade of a beaten down stock. If that is their plan then so be it. Some of it is short covering, some of it is speculation.

That is not me and I see value in many strong names for the next 12-18 months and beyond. I would rather buy beaten down financials and consumer staples than airlines or cruise lines.

[Dusko.Popov]

While some were sitting it out last Friday, I went $10k in.

It’s been fun.

Ttd; sq; Roku; Hibb; cake, txrh

Im long in the restaurants, Hibbett and ttd. The rest has been Rolex money fast.

I hope some jumped into Roku, sq and ttd when I mentioned it before.

I can completely respect those “looking for value eighteen months from now.” But for those looking to make money, Friday’s drop was golden. When the market goes 20% red again, I’m back in. I can’t speak the fancy language about why that makes sense in my mind, but common sense is commons sense. Not sure it takes being a financial planner to make money in this environment.

Wish everyone the best! Good luck, be safe and make money!

[beshannon]

10:00 up 530 on the DOW

For the year now down 13% (index) and year over year down 2%

Parts of the economy holding up, many upgrades of stocks and the cuts and downgrades are not as severe as once thought.

Will need to watch the FTSE close and then 2 pm for clues to the end of the day.

At this point I am inclined to hold long and do nothing over the long weekend.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

I can completely respect those “looking for value eighteen months from now.” But for those looking to make money, Friday’s drop was golden. When the market goes 20% red again, I’m back in. I can’t speak the fancy language about why that makes sense in my mind, but common sense is commons sense. Not sure it takes being a financial planner to make money in this environment.

Wish everyone the best! Good luck, be safe and make money!

Nothing wrong with understanding your plan and risk tolerance

[Bearxj86]

$2.3T atomic bomb just dropped. For those that said Fed is out of ammo...they still got more if they need. They will do anything it appears to support economy and of course Trump is pressuring them cos his re-election hinges on this.

I'm a hold at this point too with some nibbles. Nice to see some optimism for once especially with money for small businesses and mortgages.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

I think the airlines will be crushed for years....at least to get back to the 2019 numbers....hell what do I know.

Local news reported that RDU flyers down 95% from normal. That's huge. And they're still flying some flights, I'm guessing at far below normal capacity. How can they keep that up, especially in the upcoming vacation season (summer) when many of us, despite cabin fever, probably won't want to get stuck in a metal tube with a bunch of potential viral carriers? Or quarantined somewhere in an expensive hotel suite?

That and the cruise lines were up quite a bit yesterday as well... makes no sense.

[m j b]

OMG AAL up 15% and CCL up 11%. Why are people buying these things?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

OMG AAL up 15% and CCL up 11%. Why are people buying these things?

Young speculators.

Not for me!!

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by m j b

OMG AAL up 15% and CCL up 11%. Why are people buying these things?

My point exactly.....been in the business all my life, its not going to be good. Hope it is a quick recovery but don’t know how...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

OMG AAL up 15% and CCL up 11%. Why are people buying these things?

Many reasons, that is what makes a market.

Value investors for the long term are buying

Short term speculators looking to day trade the arbitrage

People who don't do their homework, get a tip to buy a stock because it is cheap

And so on

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Nothing wrong with understanding your plan and risk tolerance

Appreciate that. And thank you for the advice and thoughts that you take the time every day to provide. I’ve learned a lot about the technical side of investing from reading your posts and articles that you’ve vetted and shared.

Thank you.

[enjoythemusic]

How many here have handsomely profited from front-running the Fed buying virtually everything? Remember, you want to be the first to get $ before it trickles down.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Appreciate that. And thank you for the advice and thoughts that you take the time every day to provide. I’ve learned a lot about the technical side of investing from reading your posts and articles that you’ve vetted and shared.

Thank you.

My pleasure

Markets backing off now after NYC Mayor saying restrictions might need tightening

I think the biggest risk to everything right now is over confidence. If we get a spike of reinfections after we start to ease social distancing restrictions, the markets will not take that well despite how much liquidity there is.

The markets hate uncertainty more than anything, knowing the earnings are bad, knowing that the unemployment number are bad is one thing.

Seeing rising infections after all this would be devastating.

And just like that with an oil cut announced we are moving higher

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

How many here have handsomely profited from front-running the Fed buying virtually everything?

Anyone with investments has (had) IRA's, 401K, pension funds, mutual funds, dividend stock holders in retirement etc.

Not sure what you are asking?

[Duey]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Opinion supported by facts: Over the past 12 years since the great recession, any Monkey could have made 200%-300%. It's only in bear markets that the hard work is NEEDED to generate even reasonable returns.

I think we're getting to Monkey territory here and that's the scary part.
There is no true reason why. Hope and the government is not a reason.

Airlines are going up ??
MGM is going up ??
Carnival Corp is up ??

[austinp]

Current line-up. Mostly long term holds. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. These are not retirement investments just a brokerage account.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by austinp

Current line-up. Mostly long term holds. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. These are not retirement investments just a brokerage account.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

Here’s mine today; mostly LT holds




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[healer]

Thank you to all of you guys. Today I might exit my own bear market;) lol... if it does not drop I have a feeling today I’ll break even. I got punish big time I double up my money to recoup fast and I think it works. Fingers cross.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not sure what you are asking?

Follow the money, basically, yet ahead of the action.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Current line-up. Mostly long term holds. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. These are not retirement investments just a brokerage account.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

Just my .02

Lots of hot crowded names, FAANG and TECH

As long as these are trades and not investments you should be fine as long as you manage the risk