Talking Stocks 2.0

[BreguetRolex]

Originally Posted by beshannon

With the current cost of funds in the US near zero, banks pay nothing for deposits and 3 month treasury securities yield .249%, yes 3.7% is an excellent yield coupled with the possible rise in value of the underlying equity.

45+ years of interest on an account with nothing vested but being passed down from a parent adds up to be quite a nice hefty sum rather you think its poor investing or not..! :) Makes for some awesome watch funding for sure..!

[omarakram]

Help needed from all the trading pundits.
Any advice on brokers who offer 0 leverage for commodities, stocks
Its my first time trading and a bit bored with this lockdown . dont want to take high risks .


Any advice is appreciated

[beshannon]

Bank earnings today, Futures up, guidance will be interesting if any company gives any.

JPM with good earnings and is up in the premarket, JNJ beat and raised dividend even with lowered guidance

Will be an interesting day, might need to do some bargain hunting

Cash is at 9/11 highs, VIX is down to ~40

[beshannon]

$800 mm to buy on the open, I am sensing a lot of sideways action during earning season as people try to decide what to do, still with the massive outflows last week, not sure who is left to sell for a retest. Too many traders looking for opportunities and without any new bad news, I think we muddle along here for a while.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by beshannon
With the current cost of funds in the US near zero, banks pay nothing for deposits and 3 month treasury securities yield .249%, yes 3.7% is an excellent yield coupled with the possible rise in value of the underlying equity.

Originally Posted by BreguetRolex

45+ years of interest on an account with nothing vested but being passed down from a parent adds up to be quite a nice hefty sum rather you think its poor investing or not..! :) Makes for some awesome watch funding for sure..!

You asked a question, I answered, I said nothing about "poor" investing

Good luck to you

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Too many traders looking for opportunities and without any new bad news, I think we muddle along here for a while.

I don't think we muddle, I think we're going up strongly, short-term. Market up 2% as I write this. Jim Cramer, who is a blow-hard, occasional poops-out a gem, and his big thing this morning was that the stock market is not a reflection of the economy.

More silliness going on in Tesla, short squeeze perhaps?

I closed my losing short position yesterday at a loss, glad I did.

I'm staying long* while the news of states moving to end the sheltering trickles out, which will encourage people until we get the second wave of infections.


* - a sell signal

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

I don't think we muddle, I think we're going up strongly, short-term. Market up 2% as I write this. Jim Cramer, who is a blow-hard, occasional poops-out a gem, and his big thing this morning was that the stock market is not a reflection of the economy.

I agree, the market is not the economy.

I have been looking at parts of the economy that are doing very well, AMZN is soaring in this environment.

Some companies will report worse than expected earnings and that is what I think will give the bears ammunition to sell even if they are isolated cases.

I am staying long, getting hard to find value as several things have run away from me. I am not chasing, keeping my cash for a move lower if it comes.

DOW up 586, strong across the board, lots of buying interest chasing prices higher, all Dow 30 stocks higher, A/D is 9/1 on the upside, QQQ is now above the 50 day moving average

AMZN, COST, AAPL, MSFT, HD doing very well in areas where they own the market. These are the stories that can provide return even with this economic shock.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not chasing, keeping my cash for a move lower if it comes.

Ditto.

[m j b]

Although I am thinking of shorting CCL again...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Although I am thinking of shorting CCL again...

Too much risk for me

They just cancelled more cruises but say they have enough cash to make it to the end of the year, they still pay a dividend and insiders are buying as well as the Saudis

Just too much uncertainty for me to form any opinion which is my signal to stay away and move on.

[JParm]

Agree that it's getting tough to find the bargains (or even true value prices) as we inch up towards where we were before.

Still cash heavy at this point as well, but taking some bites along the way. Bought into C, which is down at the moment and has an earnings call for tomorrow. Could Citigroup's stock price get worse? Sure, but as I'm a long-term investor, I see the value at it's current price for 1-3-5 years down the road.

[beshannon]

WFC, JPM went negative after the earnings and early pop

I will be watching both to see if there is an attractive entry point as these are solid companies managing this very well for the long term

[Duey]

Last week I did some investing with negative logic. These were stocks that only a fool would buy, sorry no TESLA . So I took some funds and made some really dumb investments and this morning it paid off. I did it to prove to myself how much of a joke it really is. And yes I sold them all this morning and made a good chunk and said it's time to get out of the market because it's just rolling the dice now.

I bought -
CCL
RCCL
ALK
LUV
MGM
WYNN

This current market is actually meaningless to facts. Sure once it happens you can look back come up with a conclusion as to why it did it but that's not investing.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Duey

This current market is actually meaningless to facts. Sure once it happens you can look back come up with a conclusion as to why it did it but that's not investing.

I disagree but glad it worked out for you.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Duey

Last week I did some investing with negative logic. These were stocks that only a fool would buy

I did the same thing with PG&E. It got hammered (again) last week when it looked like the settlement was getting torpedoed and I took a gamble. Up 40% from that point, and up another 12% or something stupid like that today, so I sold it.

Too early? Maybe. A good company? No. Good prospects? No. Happy customers? No. Happy with my quick profits? Yes.

The market is a head scratcher, fer sure.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Duey

This current market is actually meaningless to facts. Sure once it happens you can look back come up with a conclusion as to why it did it but that's not investing.

As long as you're making money...

That's why you should typically buy into valuable brands that you believe in. Obviously do your homework and research (as I always say); don't just believe everything that you read on the news and think that it should translate accordingly to the market.

Is DIS or NKE going away anytime soon? GOOGL, FB, V, VZ? These are brands that I value, trust...and have excellent balance sheets, among others. So, point here is while the market is crazy, if you pick up certain things that you actually follow and are great at what they're doing, then you are investing - regardless of the craziness of the market.

I don't short or day trade; long-term investor (but I will take profits when my gut (and other factors) tell me so!).

[gnuyork]

Day trading has been very good to me today. Risky, yes, but nice profits today so far.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I disagree but glad it worked out for you.

I thought you would disagree with the last 2 sentences.
But how about the first part with negative logic in today's market? It shouldn't work based on the research data.

I've been investing for decades, long term. And yes I have GOOGLE, MCD, Wal-Mart, INTC, Facebook and a lot of other fun ones too, but no TESLA.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Duey

I though you would disagree with the last 2 sentences.
But how about the first part with negative logic in today's market? It shouldn't work based on the research data.

I've been investing for decades, long term. And yes I have GOOGLE, MCD, Wal-Mart, INTC, Facebook and a lot of other fun ones too, but no TESLA.

Tesla did well i the last two days, not sure I'd hold it long term at this point.

[calh22a]

I’m so tempted to take some profits on tsla. What’s everyone’s thoughts on tsla?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Tesla did well i the last two days, not sure I'd hold it long term at this point.

Originally Posted by calh22a

I’m so tempted to take some profits on tsla. What’s everyone’s thoughts on tsla?

I own Tesla and don't intend to sell. I think the value here is in looking at it as a tech company, and not strictly as a car manufacturer. Yes, it's volatile as the best of them, but that's why I'm diversified.

At the end of the day, it's money I'm willing to lose to bet on crazy Elon Musk.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Duey

I though you would disagree with the last 2 sentences.
But how about the first part with negative logic in today's market? It shouldn't work based on the research data.

I've been investing for decades, long term. And yes I have GOOGLE, MCD, Wal-Mart, INTC, Facebook and a lot of other fun ones too, but no TESLA.

It does not work based on research data, those names are trading mostly on speculation at this point. Many people do this, just not for me.

[logo]

Originally Posted by calh22a

I’m so tempted to take some profits on tsla. What’s everyone’s thoughts on tsla?

As an investment, I think they’re overvalued (relative to what they currently are and do), unpredictable and too much of an emotion-based, Elon-tweet based stock for my liking. A good one to play the highs and lows, but not a long term position in my view.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Credit cards are issued by banks, V and MA don't care about defaults, they make money from usage

Absolutely., but the defaulters owe banks, who I worry about. They face defaults from consumers with credit cards and borrowers whose businesses are closed, who can't pay business or car or home loans. When your biggest customers disappear it's not good.

Merchant transactions are either gone or severely down, so the long list of fees that get paid on a swipe/pin disappear.

It's the tsunami of loss of earnings that I referred to. I should have been more specific.

I do think that buying its dips makes sense, though, as
v ain't going anywhere in the long term.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by logo

As an investment, I think they’re overvalued (relative to what they currently are and do), unpredictable and too much of an emotion-based, Elon-tweet based stock for my liking. A good one to play the highs and lows, but not a long term position in my view.

Exactly.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by logo

As an investment, I think they’re overvalued (relative to what they currently are and do), unpredictable and too much of an emotion-based, Elon-tweet based stock for my liking. A good one to play the highs and lows, but not a long term position in my view.

well said

And as a tech company, based on all data we have, it has zero chance of ever making a profit. You can't spend Billions and Billions of dollars and then find $10 bucks and say you made $10 bucks. People just love Elon for some crazy reason.

[beshannon]

Solidly higher at 2 pm, A/D has narrowed to 3/1 up, volume is light at 301 mm more new highs than lows today at this time, positive signal.

Financials gave back their morning run after defaults became a topic. Energy is still down and likely will be for some time. All other sectors getting buying with Tech, Health and Consumer Disc getting the biggest push higher.

JPM with a P/E of 8 and a yield of 3.8 is a favorite of some analysts as their loan loss reserves swell but their underlying business is strong and the cost to raise funds through deposits is zero at this point. If I did not already own JPM I would be adding here.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by calh22a

I’m so tempted to take some profits on tsla. What’s everyone’s thoughts on tsla?

The stock price is unsustainable based on sales, earnings, future sales, and every other criteria except for rabid cool-aid drinking fans of Musk.

What I do in situations like this is sell half. That way you lock in some profits but still leave some on the table if it goes up more.

[enjoythemusic]

As i said, you want to buy what the Fed is buying, ahead of them of course. But if you love Las Vegas gambling on stocks, go for it.


Investing Is Dead: World's Largest Asset Manager Says "We'll Just Buy Whatever Central Banks Are Buying"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/in...-central-banks

[cornerstore]

To your point above. Sage advice from a casino owner and a man not known for such. From ForbesQuotes .
“The New York Stock Exchange happens to be the biggest casino in the world. The only thing that makes it different from the average casino is that the players dress in blue pinstripe suits and carry leather briefcases.”