Talking Stocks 2.0

[kieselguhr]

Woke up and TSLA was at $733. I somehow found the sell button. Did my rounds, checked again and sold half my AMD. No other moves but will keep a look out to add more like MGM, SWKS, VZ and likely more AMD. Also sold all my CCL and glad I did.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

To your point above. Sage advice from a casino owner and a man not known for such. From ForbesQuotes .
“The New York Stock Exchange happens to be the biggest casino in the world. The only thing that makes it different from the average casino is that the players dress in blue pinstripe suits and carry leather briefcases.”

But now they are socializing Fed member 'investment' bank losses and privatizing gains. Seems a bit unsportsmanlike if you ask me.

[EEpro]

Heads they win, tails you're gonna lose.

[beshannon]

Profit taking likely this morning after the futures are down ~411

Not surprising, earning are cloudy to meaningless. Massive tug of war between slowing cases of COVID-19 and poor to non-existent economic activity.

Will be watching some things that have run up recently for entry points and possibly taking some profits after the open if we get a lift

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Profit taking likely this morning after the futures are down ~411

Not surprising, earning are cloudy to meaningless. Massive tug of war between slowing cases of COVID-19 and poor to non-existent economic activity.

Will be watching some things that have run up recently for entry points and possibly taking some profits after the open if we get a lift

Think we bounce off of resistance on this 2850 level?



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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Think we bounce off of resistance on this 2850 level?



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Not at this point, we are going lower at least this morning, I think we will see 2650 before 2850

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not at this point, we are going lower at least this morning, I think we will see 2650 before 2850

Agreed. I am tempted to take money off of the table here and wait for a better re-entry, but timing the market never works for me. I’ve been patiently waiting for better prices to add to positions and regretting some of the trimming I did earlier on.




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[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...ly-undervalued

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...nt-chase-stock

Two articles, same site, written less than 2 hours apart. Who to believe??

Just goes to show you that no one knows anything, do your research and make your own decisions; don't just follow everything that you read online.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Agreed. I am tempted to take money off of the table here and wait for a better re-entry, but timing the market never works for me. I’ve been patiently waiting for better prices to add to positions and regretting some of the trimming I did earlier on.




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Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...ly-undervalued

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...nt-chase-stock

Two articles, same site, written less than 2 hours apart. Who to believe??

Just goes to show you that no one knows anything, do your research and make your own decisions; don't just follow everything that you read online.

Exactly.

Discipline must top conviction. Stick with your plan and if you cannot make decisions set trading stops and limits, or avoid trading and put your money into professionally managed mutual funds.

I will agree that for the short term (3-6 months) it is nearly impossible to plan any strategy other than being watchful every day.

For my window of 12-18 months I believe the economy will be better, companies will be better and the markets will be higher. I may take profits from time to time on short trading positions but I have longer positions that I have gains and dividends that I am happy to hold.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Just goes to show you that no one knows anything, do your research and make your own decisions; don't just follow everything that you read online.

Exactly. And don't follow advice given on anonymous forums.

I did short CCL yesterday and covered for a little profit after the close. Natch it's down more in pre-market trading, but I don't like holding these things overnight. I have enough trouble sleeping as it is. We celebrate the profits that we have, do not lament what could have been.

I suspect that when some states or regions start lifting restrictions, we will see another market pop. Until then, it's hard to say what news will make the market go which way.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

Exactly. And don't follow advice given on anonymous forums.

Haha!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Exactly. And don't follow advice given on anonymous forums.

Completely agree

Much like CNBC likes to say they are an entertainment program, everyone should do their own homework

[beshannon]

200 mm to sell at the open, rather small given the amount the futures are down

With the VIX up to ~42 +12%, people are confused and that is understandable

[JParm]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Woke up and TSLA was at $733. I somehow found the sell button. Did my rounds, checked again and sold half my AMD. No other moves but will keep a look out to add more like MGM, SWKS, VZ and likely more AMD. Also sold all my CCL and glad I did.

Sold half of my TSLA at $750 just now. Will keep the other half in for awhile...

[beshannon]

Holding near the lows, pretty much a reversal of yesterdays up move on no real new news, things are bad, they were known to be bad but traders are confused and trying to anticipate moves in the other direction on a day to day basis.

The market while usually efficient in using information is not doing this very well now and wont be able to for the near future.

There are still opportunities for the long term, Financials are trading very low (again) and have said their balance sheets are strong and their dividends are safe, yet the equities get sold on news that was known.

I have added small BAC and averaged down in WFC

From a Bloomberg Analyst Sonali Basak

Sonali Basak
@sonalibasak

Goldman's bond traders just had their best quarter in five years, surging 33%.

Citigroup's had their best quarter in EIGHT years, rising 39%. JPMorgan's rose 34%.

All that volatility, investment in technology and (in some cases, still coming into the office) -- Overshadowed.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

But now they are socializing Fed member 'investment' bank losses and privatizing gains. Seems a bit unsportsmanlike if you ask me.

Yeah - its a new world I dont want... although they have been doing stuff like this for a while now, the scale just keeps increasing.

Lowenstein's "When Genius Failed" is a great read.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Sold half of my TSLA at $750 just now. Will keep the other half in for awhile...

Same I kept everything that was purchased at <400, sold everything else. Will continue to keep an eye on it. In the meantime, researching long term options and just adding a little at a time.

[FlashinLeather]

CNBC:

Last week: Blue skies and bright days ahead
Today: The sky is falling and we will see a new bottom to the market

[logo]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

CNBC:

Last week: Blue skies and bright days ahead
Today: The sky is falling and we will see a new bottom to the market

lol yeah. I think we’ve all probably flip flopped on what’s going to happen a few times. In the end, I bought long term positions knowing full well I could see more red before seeing consistent green. I guess patience and discipline (and selected investment at the lows) is the name of the game at this point.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by logo

lol yeah. I think we’ve all probably flip flopped on what’s going to happen a few times. In the end, I bought long term positions knowing full well I could see more red before seeing consistent green. I guess patience and discipline (and selected investment at the lows) is the name of the game at this point.

One of my favourite quotes is from Warren Buffett:

“The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.”

[logo]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

One of my favourite quotes is from Warren Buffett:

“The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.”

That’s a good one. One of my favorite is his response to the question “when is it the right time to sell a stock?”

Buffet: “Almost never.”

[scarlet knight]

Will Rogers said that the stock market can remain irrational longer than he can remain solvent.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Will Rogers said that the stock market can remain irrational longer than he can remain solvent.

This is one of my favorite quotations, but Rogers didn't say it. It is also often misattributed to John Maynard Keynes. It was actually first stated by A. Gary Shilling. He was quoted in The Montgomery Advertiser on 12/3/1986, saying, “The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”

[Bearxj86]

I am still a buyer in this market but I have never been more cautious. The March drop at -37% felt safe for value investors to buy. The current state is not.

As I said assuming a Company was worth 100% of its stock price at the S&P peak, the discount from losing 2-3 months of revenue and even a minor recession justifies at least a 15% discount.

At this point I cannot rationally buy any company past this discount. There are some that are down 40-50% still but there are usually justifiable reasons. Very different than S&P was down 40% and some stocks down 70% (no brainer).

My actively management portfolio is currently 85% cash. Which is significantly lower than 20% cash in March.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I am still a buyer in this market but I have never been more cautious. The March drop at -37% felt safe for value investors to buy. The current state is not.

As I said assuming a Company was worth 100% of its stock price at the S&P peak, the discount from losing 2-3 months of revenue and even a minor recession justifies at least a 15% discount.

At this point I cannot rationally buy any company past this discount. There are some that are down 40-50% still but there are usually justifiable reasons. Very different than S&P was down 40% and some stocks down 70% (no brainer).

My actively management portfolio is currently 85% cash. Which is significantly lower than 20% cash in March.

Have to agree with you here...treading lightly. I made the same comment yesterday, in that "value pricing" is getting more and more difficult to find.

Still keeping a heavy stash of cash at the ready if / when the market approaches the old bottom.

[Letsgodiving]

Yesterday the S&P was at the same level that is was in August of last year! Let that sink in for a minute.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

CNBC:

Last week: Blue skies and bright days ahead
Today: The sky is falling and we will see a new bottom to the market

They are merely sports commentators that are great explaining after the fact why a team won over another... could come down to dumb luck but theyll just comment on the stats and key players that "made it happen" - all bullshit

[enjoythemusic]

People still watch CNBC? Always good for a few laughs of course.

When you appear on CNBC, talk your book to sell to the greater fool. Plenty of garbage to unload during these times to greater fools.

Anyone here frontrunning the Fed, or are you still gamblers? The Fed is a sure thing, you can't lose. Don't fight the Fed...

[healer]

I’m seeing a lot of people here holding on to there cash and I don’t see anything wrong with it. I on the other hand is all in starting today.I put in anything that I want to put in. I’ve never knew I can put in so much money in stock;) I wish everybody good luck. I’ll be watching you guys from the sideline from this point onwards. Thanks to all of you and I promise myself never to open my account but to only check if any of my stocks company will go bankrupt;): time to move on with real life.lol I got addicted in stock I’ve been checking everyday that I’m missing out on a lot of things. Hahahahhahahaah I know I know.... thanks again And I’ll be around;)

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by healer

I’m seeing a lot of people here holding on to there cash and I don’t see anything wrong with it. I on the other hand is all in starting today.I put in anything that I want to put in. I’ve never knew I can put in so much money in stock;) I wish everybody good luck. I’ll be watching you guys from the sideline from this point onwards. Thanks to all of you and I promise myself never to open my account but to only check if any of my stocks company will go bankrupt;): time to move on with real life.lol I got addicted in stock I’ve been checking everyday that I’m missing out on a lot of things. Hahahahhahahaah I know I know.... thanks again And I’ll be around;)

Good luck man - you should be fine in 5 years no matter what :)