Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Mixed bag with the VZ earnings; will be adding if red.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Mixed bag with the VZ earnings; will be adding if red.

Agreed, need to wait for the conference call, I think that the story is the same here, this is a great company with a cloudy outlook. EPS beat, revenue missed, guidance pulled

I will average down as well if necessary

[77T]

VZ and any carrier should have been flush with new revenue for March due to nearly every business turning up their access port speeds for remote workers. Enough to carry the Q1 results.

The predicted business failures especially in Northeast will hit them in Q2-3-4. If they guided downward to the point of accuracy they’d tank methinks. So simply pulled it.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by 77T

VZ and any carrier should have been flush with new revenue for March due to nearly every business turning up their access port speeds for remote workers. Enough to carry the Q1 results.

The predicted business failures especially in Northeast will hit them in Q2-3-4. If they guided downward to the point of accuracy they’d tank methinks. So simply pulled it.


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To be honest with you, I would rather have them be upfront about it and send the stock down so that opportune investors can swoop in and add more shares.

We all know that earnings for nearly every company will be bad over the next couple of quarters. As a long-term investor, I'm honestly watching out for the earnings calls to see where I can come in to buy the dip and hold.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

To be honest with you, I would rather have them be upfront about it and send the stock down so that opportune investors can swoop in and add more shares.

We all know that earnings for nearly every company will be bad over the next couple of quarters. As a long-term investor, I'm honestly watching out for the earnings calls to see where I can come in to buy the dip and hold.

I completely agree, however, I am in the camp that believe that guidance should be suspended across the board as it is of little value and it drive analysts to create estimates based on a false narrative.

Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon Really Want Companies to Stop Giving Quarterly Earnings Guidance

https://fortune.com/2018/06/07/buffe...term-thinking/

I hope this is the start of removing guidance permanently

[beshannon]

Slight up open, quiet trade today, not much real news to trade off of, absent a big news event I do not see much action today.

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Nio, Tesla Fall After China Cuts Electric Cars Subsidies
Investor's Business Daily

We starting the Emperor has no clothes phase of the market. TSLA are corporate welfare bum$. They have been using taxpayer subsidies to survive so far and they call it capitalism;lol. Even Disney was over leveraged going onto the quarantines. They and many other so called blue chip companies are borrowing money to stay liquid. Last 10 years has been about chasing performance and healthy balance sheets be damned. When Buffett is cautious everyone else should be frightened of that fact alone. Although low volumes the dead cat bounce off the recent lows and churn smells like an orderly unwinding onto the retail investor. Classic penny stock maneuvers on a bigger scale. Bull or Bear or Sheep . Great day traders market. Be nible out there and keep your powder dry as they say. Interesting times.

none of this matters. All you need to know is that life is a bubble and get on or get run over.

[77T]

Hans (VZ) will be live on CNBC in a few moments to answer some questions FWIW.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

Hans (VZ) will be live on CNBC in a few moments to answer some questions FWIW.


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Yes waiting for this one

Not much new, CEO is optimistic given the situation, I am holding not adding here

[JParm]

AT&T CEO Stephenson out July 1st...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

AT&T CEO Stephenson out July 1st...

Overdue and a good thing IMHO, I have a large position in T, Elliott Management has been in there for a while

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/28/tech/...eal/index.html

Now being reported that Elliott supports this change and the new CEO John Stankey

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

none of this matters. All you need to know is that life is a bubble and get on or get run over.

Silliest thing I ever heard. lol Life maybe a lot of things but not a bubble. I agree with you the market is in a bubble. Bubbles always rise and pop eventually.

[JParm]

Added to C. I think the banks will hurt for awhile, but there's just too much value to pass up at these prices. Give it a year.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Added to C. I think the banks will hurt for awhile, but there's just too much value to pass up at these prices. Give it a year.

I agree with this. Very low prices and lots of value here. I've been buying UK banks (Barclays and Lloyd's mainly) and have added Citigroup this week. Short term won't be good for any of them but in 2 years or less I'll do very well on all of them I believe.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Added to C. I think the banks will hurt for awhile, but there's just too much value to pass up at these prices. Give it a year.

Originally Posted by Uggi

I agree with this. Very low prices and lots of value here. I've been buying UK banks (Barclays and Lloyd's mainly) and have added Citigroup this week. Short term won't be good for any of them but in 2 years or less I'll do very well on all of them I believe.

Agreed, I bought MS a few weeks ago and own JPM and WFC

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed, I bought MS a few weeks ago and own JPM and WFC

You guys prefer individual stocks rather than XLF?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed, I bought MS a few weeks ago and own JPM and WFC

One of the "guests" on CNBC this AM spoke of European banks as being a good investment for his company/fund/whatever.

I haven't gotten around to looking at them yet, but it made sense to me.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

One of the "guests" on CNBC this AM spoke of European banks as being a good investment for his company/fund/whatever.

I haven't gotten around to looking at them yet, but it made sense to me.

This gets kicked around a lot, everyone do you research.

Many of the EU banks have issues, not to say they might not be good speculative trades but for me they carry too much risk. In addition there is far too much value here with US banks.

“European banks remain vulnerable and fragile from the financial and debt crises and the coronavirus crisis delivers a fresh hit to the financial sector, compounding investor uncertainty,” Athanasia Kokkinogeni, Europe senior analyst at the research firm DuckerFrontier, told CNBC Thursday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coro...is-issues.html

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

You guys prefer individual stocks rather than XLF?

Yes always.

I would rather own what I chose based on research rather than being stuck with the entire sector with the good, the bad and the ugly.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

You guys prefer individual stocks rather than XLF?

I personally do - we have mutual funds for the passive investing side (long LONG term), but I'm active enough (research throughout the day) that I feel better about selectively picking certain stocks than an ETF. And in this sector, that's C and JPM for me.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Overdue and a good thing IMHO, I have a large position in T, Elliott Management has been in there for a while

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/28/tech/...eal/index.html

Now being reported that Elliott supports this change and the new CEO John Stankey

That’s an old story - but it was the cover for Randall to maneuver for best timing.

And now it seems best time with a massive sea change ahead for the industries that have merged transport with media.

He will still be ECOB - he was really a “Steady Eddie” but wasn’t a great deal maker the way Ed Whittaker was. Also less connected except on the financials.

John was the tech guy at the new T and did well but his leadership in new media (where the bulk of growth is hoped for) was dismal at best. This go round for T into media has gone poorly just like it’s first try in 1999. Losing Billions in shareholder value was the old T way - Ed woulda remembered that - but Randall figured it wrong this time around... and John failed to deliver as Chief at Warner (losing over $1.1 B).

So the market isn’t reacting the way I see the situation - it’s a big short methinks.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

That’s an old story - but it was the cover for Randall to maneuver for best timing.

I know the story was old, first one I saw talking about Elliott

I believe the activist would not be in there without some insight, they have issues but they also have a lot of positives too, I am sticking with the stock

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I know the story was old, first one I saw talking about Elliott



I believe the activist would not be in there without some insight, they have issues but they also have a lot of positives too, I am sticking with the stock

I didn’t mean “old” as a derogatory term. I was pivoting into T’s previous dabblings in the media space. In the first go round I met with their new chief at a Conference and went for a run with him. He came out of the talent side of media and flew the deal straight into the ground. Had no understanding of streaming nor transport synergies.

Elliott’s goal is well described in that article you cited. They will take some strategic options (sell some units), pay down debt, unlock value in the traditional space, sell off wireline like VZ and then dump at a 4x gain on their 1%.

If you stay long on T, be nimble - dividend is fair but watch for signals there. Much Success - truly hope they stay strong.


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[cornerstore]

A quote from the pre Covid era by someone who appears to be a knowledgeable person.

“ Even if there is a correction, it will be another buying opportunity. Until the fundamental picture changes the trend is still up.”

So the big question is, has a world wide pandemic, supply chain disruptions and collapses, massive unemployment, shell shocked consumers, stoped production on many consumer goods, banks having to write down bad loans, over-leveraged multi national corporations looking at bankruptcy, loss of asset values on real property, food shortage projections, growing Nationalism worldwide. Does none of this count as fundamental changes? Government welfare checks to businesses and individuals is what this rally is all about and how long until they dry up?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

A quote from the pre Covid era by someone who appears to be a knowledgeable person.

“ Even if there is a correction, it will be another buying opportunity. Until the fundamental picture changes the trend is still up.”

So the big question is, has a world wide pandemic, supply chain disruptions and collapses, massive unemployment, shell shocked consumers, stoped production on many consumer goods, banks having to write down bad loans, over-leveraged multi national corporations looking at bankruptcy, loss of asset values on real property, food shortage projections, growing Nationalism worldwide. Does none of this count as fundamental changes? Government welfare is what this rally is all about and will dry up. Capitalism is dead and has been replaced by welfare checks and market manipulation.

My honest opinion about your thoughts as of late, don't hate me for it:

You've provided a lot of negative insight into why the stock market is wrong / broken, why prices shouldn't go up, etc. etc. I truly don't think it's been beneficial to those of us that are using this as a place to talk about the stocks that we're interested in.

If you want to rant, please open a new thread and rant. Otherwise, join the conversation and tell us the stocks that you're moving into / out of and why.

Again, just my opinion and I'm not trying to be negative towards you, but your last 5-10 posts have centered around the same subject on the market being broken.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

A quote from the pre Covid era by someone who appears to be a knowledgeable person.

“ Even if there is a correction, it will be another buying opportunity. Until the fundamental picture changes the trend is still up.”

So the big question is, has a world wide pandemic, supply chain disruptions and collapses, massive unemployment, shell shocked consumers, stoped production on many consumer goods, banks having to write down bad loans, over-leveraged multi national corporations looking at bankruptcy, loss of asset values on real property, food shortage projections, growing Nationalism worldwide. Does none of this count as fundamental changes? Government welfare checks to businesses and individuals is what this rally is all about and how long until they dry up?

Who knows. I heard one guy say the government is fixing a 2 trillion dollar pot hole with 7 trillion dollars of asphalt. After 2008 people started talking about billions now we’re talking trillions. I’m beginning to think it doesn’t matter. No one has a trillion dollars sitting on the shelf so I’m starting to believe it’s a big shell game. There’s too much money being made for the stock market to collapse I think it’s like a poker game and someone just swept the money off the table, so everyone pouring money into 401s is just going to pour harder hoping to retire one day and leave the game with enough to get them through to the end.


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[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

My honest opinion about your thoughts as of late, don't hate me for it:

You've provided a lot of negative insight into why the stock market is wrong / broken, why prices shouldn't go up, etc. etc. I truly don't think it's been beneficial to those of us that are using this as a place to talk about the stocks that we're interested in.

If you want to rant, please open a new thread and rant. Otherwise, join the conversation and tell us the stocks that you're moving into / out of and why.

Again, just my opinion and I'm not trying to be negative towards you, but your last 5-10 posts have centered around the same subject on the market being broken.

The market is broken, was not aware this was a cheer leading only conversation thread.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

The market is broken, was not aware this was a cheer leading only conversation thread.

Not a cheerleading thread by any means, but you've stated that the market is broken numerous times. Great, then get out of it.

For those of us here that are still going, maybe provide some insight on some actual stocks and not the market as a whole? I saw you delete the "having over 50 years of experience investing" part of your original response. Maybe use your knowledge to help us out instead of "the sky is falling" speak.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

My honest opinion about your thoughts as of late, don't hate me for it:

You've provided a lot of negative insight into why the stock market is wrong / broken, why prices shouldn't go up, etc. etc. I truly don't think it's been beneficial to those of us that are using this as a place to talk about the stocks that we're interested in.

If you want to rant, please open a new thread and rant. Otherwise, join the conversation and tell us the stocks that you're moving into / out of and why.

Again, just my opinion and I'm not trying to be negative towards you, but your last 5-10 posts have centered around the same subject on the market being broken.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Not a cheerleading thread by any means, but you've stated that the market is broken numerous times. Great, then get out of it.

For those of us here that are still going, maybe provide some insight on some actual stocks and not the market as a whole? I saw you delete the "having over 50 years of experience investing" part of your original response. Maybe use your knowledge to help us out instead of "the sky is falling" speak.

I honestly thought my comments although “negative” do add some balance to the conversation. The quote I referenced is from a prolific poster here and I was curious based on his recent posts why he presumably does not think fundamentals have changed. I gave some examples of why I think they have changed. I do not generally give investment advice, however industrial Silver is the barometer, not for it precious metal value but it’s high tech and other industrial usages. So far it is churning looking for demand in spite of big pull backs in production. I am currently in all cash awaiting some semblance of rationality. Either on my part or the markets.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

I honestly thought my comments although “negative” do add some balance to the conversation. The quote I referenced is from a prolific poster here and I was curious based on his recent posts why he presumably does not think fundamentals have changed. I gave some examples of why I think they have changed. I do not generally give investment advice, however industrial Silver is the barometer, not for it precious metal value but it’s high tech and other industrial usages. So far it is churning looking for demand in spite of big pull backs in production. I am currently in all cash awaiting some semblance of rationality.

I think statements like what is bolded above is exactly the kind of thing that would prove beneficial around here. Your experience is definitely appreciated, especially in a thread like this.

There are definitely bears around here (I'm one of them), but that doesn't mean we aren't nibbling here and there. Hope we can continue having this conversation.