Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Strong day thus far, let's see if it holds. Days like this are why you shouldn't sit on the sidelines while waiting for Armageddon.

Or try any kind of timing, set stops instead

Originally Posted by logo

Absolutely. It’s days like this that have me questioning my discipline and wanting to sell... must resist temptation and stick to the plan haha

Exactly. Set stop/limit orders where you are comfortable selling positions with gains and let them run. Or, take profits in some of the riskier ones and keep the cash for the next buying opportunity.

There are many ways to be disciplined.

Remember when the markets were plummeting back in March, everyone said "I can't believe this". Well, this is the flip side

[m j b]

Yep. I got hosed on my shorts, and covered both with a huge loss. I still think I'm right, but I can't risk holding on to my convictions until I go bankrupt.

[bryan13]

What doesn't make anymore sense is that we are at 15% from ATH on the S&P. Everything is being inflated on news, but no action. News of reopening, news of a vaccine, news of clinical trials. We could get more rumors on clinical trials or a vaccine and suddenly be back at ATHs. Yet we have unemployment at levels never seen before and GDP declining 4.8% in Q1 alone. Q2 is going to be much worse. And its unlikely Q3 will look much better. I just don't at all understand the levels we are at.

[YYZed]

RCL up 17% at one point today.
That makes sense... The most impacted subsegment of the leisure travel industry, which itself has been decimated. Can you imagine enough people booking a cruise to get a 3000 person boat remotely profitable enough to sail in the next year?

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by YYZed

RCL up 17% at one point today.
That makes sense... The most impacted subsegment of the leisure travel industry, which itself has been decimated. Can you imagine enough people booking a cruise to get a 3000 person boat remotely profitable enough to sail in the next year?

Most airlines and analysts are not anticipating travel to return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest.

[YYZed]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Most airlines and analysts are not anticipating travel to return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest.

Right? And that’s air travel to a variety of destinations for work, family, and pleasure. Not some tin can floating out in the middle of the ocean, which is also dependent on air travel to an extent...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Strong day thus far, let's see if it holds. Days like this are why you shouldn't sit on the sidelines while waiting for Armageddon.

Originally Posted by logo

Absolutely. It’s days like this that have me questioning my discipline and wanting to sell... must resist temptation and stick to the plan haha

Originally Posted by bryan13

What doesn't make anymore sense is that we are at 15% from ATH on the S&P. Everything is being inflated on news, but no action. News of reopening, news of a vaccine, news of clinical trials. We could get more rumors on clinical trials or a vaccine and suddenly be back at ATHs. Yet we have unemployment at levels never seen before and GDP declining 4.8% in Q1 alone. Q2 is going to be much worse. And its unlikely Q3 will look much better. I just don't at all understand the levels we are at.

Again, the lows in March did not make sense either

The Fed is committed to 0%, trillions of dollars have been pumped into the economy and the news is slowly getting better . . .

Just be mindful of your positions and keep your stops tight

[JParm]

Market keeps going up, and I'm not going to fight it. Buy when red, sell when green.

If we do start to shift and get signals towards a continuous dip towards the lows, then I will sell at my pre-set dollar point. Otherwise, forget the day-to-day non-business news and ride the wave up.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tim...?mod=hp_LATEST

Agree or disagree, it's certainly an interesting perspective on timing the market.

[YYZed]

Colleague of mine who doesn’t do much stock market investing bought a couple hundred shares of BA in the $95 range and hasn’t looked at the market since. He told me he’d revisit his stocks again in 10 years or so. He sleeps well at night...

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tim...?mod=hp_LATEST

Agree or disagree, it's certainly an interesting perspective on timing the market.

That's a fantastic article - thanks for posting it. Bob Kargenian echos many of my investing philosophies. The 200 day Simple Moving Average is one of the most significant indicators out there (along with its exponential brother, the 200 EMA), and I like that he mentions it in this article. There are many people who tout and teach all forms of Technical Analysis, and some TA courses go way deep and can lose people in the weeds, but the fact that this moving average is used by so many large fund traders means it is an important tool for the rest of us to watch.

[JParm]

FB shooting post-close with earnings numbers out, similar to GOOGL yesterday. Had a good feeling about both of these companies, and now I wish I would've hedged even more.

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Most airlines and analysts are not anticipating travel to return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest.

I shorted late today as I can’t understand why in the world this stock is going up.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

I shorted late today as I can’t understand why in the world this stock is going up.

Be careful - You're using logic here and in today's market that just doesn't work with travel and leisure and gambling.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

I shorted late today as I can’t understand why in the world this stock is going up.

This approach has cost me a boatload over the past few weeks. I'm almost totally out of those positions now which means your timing is probably just right. Good luck!

[EEpro]

Watching the FOMO fireworks from the sidelines with twinges of disbelief and equal parts jealousy.

[Bearxj86]

my TSLA Longs and my 401k are saving my fomo anxiety -_-

Nice to see the Gilead antiviral having positive news - as is the Fed pledging continued zero rates

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by Duey

Be careful - You're using logic here and in today's market that just doesn't work with travel and leisure and gambling.

Your probably right! In a sane and rational world these stocks should stay flat or drop like a rock. Instead it goes up 9-10 points in a day!

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

This approach has cost me a boatload over the past few weeks. I'm almost totally out of those positions now which means your timing is probably just right. Good luck!

Thanks! The market is crazy and I am sorry to hear you took some losses.

[fsprow]

Market is forward looking and optimistic as am I. When this sorts out, the best companies will be in fine shape and the marginal ones will fall by the wayside. Just like nature.

I am and have been a solid buyer in US and Asian markets through this period.

[JParm]

So I had added to my positions in GOOGL and FB the last 2 days prior to their earnings calls, with the intent of averaging down should earnings prove negative...which obviously hasn't been the case.

I'm on the fence about doing the same for V (report earnings tomorrow). Though MA did have positive news on their earnings, so I should probably pull a similar move for V. Guess we'll see how I'm feeling in the morning!

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Watching the FOMO fireworks from the sidelines with twinges of disbelief and equal parts jealousy.

things have to change at some point right? The question is when and how long we’ll have to wait for it to dip.

[Seamaster59]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Most airlines and analysts are not anticipating travel to return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest.

Isn't that longer than 911? Seems very bearish

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Watching the FOMO fireworks from the sidelines with twinges of disbelief and equal parts jealousy.

It's so fickle too boot.

Upon the second of hearing ANY "good" news, the money is immediately out of lockdown stocks like Walmart and into Disney, Gaming, Cruises...FOMO indeed.

Won't be needing Walmart's anymore...let's go to Disney!!!

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

FB shooting post-close with earnings numbers out, similar to GOOGL yesterday. Had a good feeling about both of these companies, and now I wish I would've hedged even more.

Nice anticipated moves! I tried to play the earnings game this week and so far I’m 0-4 lol got a call today for msft’s earnings so hopefully I’m not 0-5

I’m still a little ticked about BA’s rise after all the bad news but theta was crushing me anyway.

Originally Posted by EEpro

Watching the FOMO fireworks from the sidelines with twinges of disbelief and equal parts jealousy.

Originally Posted by bearxj86

my TSLA Longs and my 401k are saving my fomo anxiety -_-

Nice to see the Gilead antiviral having positive news - as is the Fed pledging continued zero rates

Tesla going pretty crazy after hours, along with FB.. wish I had calls on either

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It's so fickle too boot.

Upon the second of hearing ANY "good" news, the money is immediately out of lockdown stocks like Walmart and into Disney, Gaming, Cruises...FOMO indeed.

Won't be needing Walmart's anymore...let's go to Disney!!!

“Hunger is the best sauce”

[watchmework]

I know the market looks ahead and all but at some point, or I would think, it has to come to grip with what is actually happening. What needs to happen for this to take place? Resurgence in case numbers? The reality of the old is not the new when people start going back to work? Will the S&P hit the 52 week high before dropping...none of this makes a whole lot of sense to me and from what I’ve seen it doesn’t jive with the story the technicals has been telling either.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tim...?mod=hp_LATEST

Agree or disagree, it's certainly an interesting perspective on timing the market.

Thanks, good article but I do not agree with it. Here is why I disagree

Looking back over the 20-year period from Jan. 1, 1999, to Dec. 31, 2018, if you missed the top 10 best days in the stock market, your overall return was cut in half. That's a significant difference for only 10 days over two decades!

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...in-the-st.aspx

I have seen this type of research from other sources including Schwab

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

FB shooting post-close with earnings numbers out, similar to GOOGL yesterday. Had a good feeling about both of these companies, and now I wish I would've hedged even more.

Good call on both of these

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by watchmework

I know the market looks ahead and all but at some point, or I would think, it has to come to grip with what is actually happening. What needs to happen for this to take place? Resurgence in case numbers? The reality of the old is not the new when people start going back to work? Will the S&P hit the 52 week high before dropping...none of this makes a whole lot of sense to me and from what I’ve seen it doesn’t jive with the story the technicals has been telling either.

The market could run higher than that

[beshannon]

More earnings today and the market again looks tired

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...hursday-043020

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by m j b

Yep. I got hosed on my shorts, and covered both with a huge loss. I still think I'm right, but I can't risk holding on to my convictions until I go bankrupt.

Sorry to hear that man. I've been in that boat myself before, and it never feels good, but its usually best to take the loss and move on.