When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[ErichKeane]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.

Wow! I'm seeing a handful of BLNRs in mid-12k range these days. In December I picked up a 21x Polar Explorer II for ~$9k and a BLNR for ~$13.5k, and both were 'best deals I'd seen in a while & since', but now I'm seeing 'better for cheaper' in a few places (both at that price 'could use' a service).

That said, I'm glad to see it! I just wish a BLRO would get cheap enough to add into my watch case!

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by ErichKeane

Wow! I'm seeing a handful of BLNRs in mid-12k range these days. In December I picked up a 21x Polar Explorer II for ~$9k and a BLNR for ~$13.5k, and both were 'best deals I'd seen in a while & since', but now I'm seeing 'better for cheaper' in a few places (both at that price 'could use' a service).

That said, I'm glad to see it! I just wish a BLRO would get cheap enough to add into my watch case!

I’m right there with you…I just my 116710 BLNR December 2013 COMPLETE set unpolished for 13.7…I almost bid on this one just because. Kind of hoping a 116610 hulk comes up…

[messikens]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Watch market bottomed out last Tuesday


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That joke never gets old does it

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by messikens

That joke never gets old does it

It just Never does!


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[messikens]

Going to take this opportunity to ask for a few latest price decrease quotes and hope some connected folks can help me out (without shutting this thread down):

26393QT
26240 blue / black

What are the latest and greatest quotes you're seeing?

[Vince_76]

26240 Black is in the low to mid 40s and blue in the high 40s

[messikens]

Thank you sir!

Maybe this thread stays open a bit longer... Any 26393 news as well?

[offrdmania]

Its not going to bottom out as long as dealers are stuck with pieces that they paid too much for and are unwilling to take the hit. They will keep inflating the prices by selling the watches to other dealers on credit at the inflated price in order to show that they are still selling at higher prices. These watches never actually sell but just move from one dealer to another. They are hoping that if the consumer sees that these watches are being moved at the higher price then maybe other watches in their inventory will sell to unsuspecting consumers at the higher price. Its called price manipulation.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by messikens

Thank you sir!

Maybe this thread stays open a bit longer... Any 26393 news as well?

Mint fullset marked as sold at $29.5k

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Its not going to bottom out as long as dealers are stuck with pieces that they paid too much for and are unwilling to take the hit. They will keep inflating the prices by selling the watches to other dealers on credit at the inflated price in order to show that they are still selling at higher prices. These watches never actually sell but just move from one dealer to another. They are hoping that if the consumer sees that these watches are being moved at the higher price then maybe other watches in their inventory will sell to unsuspecting consumers at the higher price. It’s called price manipulation.

Yeah, a lot of price manipulation going on. Only thing I’d add is that the buck has to stop somewhere - debt will come due, and liquidity will be needed by dealers. When that is, who knows

[Vince_76]

Fullset blue skydweller on jubilee sitting at 20.5k. Didn’t realize how much these dropped

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Fullset blue skydweller on jubilee sitting at 20.5k. Didn’t realize how much these dropped

I'm still quite surprised they're that high. They're essentially a XXXL datejust that the vast majority of wrists can't sport. The other large-sized rolex models tend to sell under retail on the secondary market. Will be interesting to see where they end up in the long term.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

I'm still quite surprised they're that high. They're essentially a XXXL datejust that the vast majority of wrists can't sport. The other large-sized rolex models tend to sell under retail on the secondary market. Will be interesting to see where they end up in the long term.

Exactly my thought as well. I owned a two tone skydweller, it was a gorgeous watch but just too bulky on the wrist and too large that it loses its elegance and wear ability compared to a datejust. I sold it and bought a datejust in 2020 which I still have :)

I love the functional turning besel and the way of displaying months, if they could just reduce it to a 40mm and 12mm or less thin I would jump at it in a heartbeat. Otherwise, the datejust is my preference.

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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

I'm still quite surprised they're that high. They're essentially a XXXL datejust that the vast majority of wrists can't sport. The other large-sized rolex models tend to sell under retail on the secondary market. Will be interesting to see where they end up in the long term.

Good point. I’d love to have one at retail. The thickness kind of sucks though.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

Exactly my thought as well. I owned a two tone skydweller, it was a gorgeous watch but just too bulky on the wrist and too large that it loses its elegance and wear ability compared to a datejust. I sold it and bought a datejust in 2020 which I still have :)

I love the functional turning besel and the way of displaying months, if they could just reduce it to a 40mm and 12mm or less thin I would jump at it in a heartbeat. Otherwise, the datejust is my preference.

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Oh for sure, they're an interesting model and I definitely understand the appeal of the movement. They do wear massive though, there's just so much dial and shiny bezel. I try not to judge peoples taste too harshly, but almost every wrist I've seen these on are at least an inch too small. Maybe Rolex thought they'd be too similar looking to the DJ at 40mm? I can see them trading well below retail once the heat dies off. We'll see though.

[1665fan]

YM2 and sky dweller will go down as fails in the future lol

[In-N-Out]

how is the 124060 doing these days? would love to get one around retail price or lower

[RTG]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

YM2 and sky dweller will go down as fails in the future lol

By ‘fails’ you must mean Rolex successfully selling and profiting from every Sky-Dweller and YM2 they produced for 12 and 18 years of production? Or by fail you mean Rolex didn’t make it specifically for your wrist?

Fun timepieces for fun people. Not everyone is a clone.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by In-N-Out

how is the 124060 doing these days? would love to get one around retail price or lower

Around 10.5 to 11.5 on moda, depending on year and condition. The subs are continuing to tick down, albeit slowly.

[digitalcrocodile]

The 116710BLNR's don't seem to be moving much at least on DAVIDSW's site.

[soicanbefree]

OP 126000 Tiffany Dial Brand New April 2024 Full Set White Tag ETC asking 13.5K on MODA

Same watch... probably a 2023 if I had to guess with DAVIDSW price 17.9K .... WOOF

[Calatrava r]

I think heading into summer the whole used watch market is slowing except for high demand models. I think there is some well needed rest from the hyperactivity of the last few years. Unless and until trends change in mechanical watch popularity, used prices may fluctuate over time, the current trend will keep prices trading in a range. I do not see a major downfall or surge in used watch prices in the short-term.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think heading into summer the whole used watch market is slowing except for high demand models. I think there is some well needed rest from the hyperactivity of the last few years. Unless and until trends change in mechanical watch popularity, used prices may fluctuate over time, the current trend will keep prices trading in a range. I do not see a major downfall or surge in used watch prices in the short-term.

Incredibly smart take. Maybe because this is my thinking as well ; )


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[gates]

when people lose their jobs and inflation keeps weakening the consumer then watches are low on the list of where the dollars have to be spent, personally Im not buying anything until it is below msrp, specifically the 228238 or 228235 (high demand ones)- I MIGHT buy one when they hit 2018-19 prices - low 30's for example and maybe not even then if the economy does what I think its going to do

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by gates

when people lose their jobs and inflation keeps weakening the consumer then watches are low on the list of where the dollars have to be spent, personally Im not buying anything until it is below msrp, specifically the 228238 or 228235 (high demand ones)- I MIGHT buy one when they hit 2018-19 prices - low 30's for example and maybe not even then if the economy does what I think its going to do

And what do you suspect the economy will do? Genuinely curious because I sense rumblings but the stock market is at all time highs. I know that the market isn’t the economy, but still…home prices are still stupid high, as are car prices.

[gates]

i'm a home builder so I see things from that perspective - I believe we are going to have some kind of economic crisis, either a dollar problem (losing reserve currency status), a runaway inflation problem, or a global depression. I believe we are in the early innings of a global recession now and debt based systems go in cycles - the entire world is on this system and we're in the late innings on this one. If you look at history we usually have a big ass war about now - if you havnt then go read Strauss and Howes "The Fourth Turning", we are in the Winter phase...

We are currently $35 trillion in debt that they admit to, and we are deficit spending $1 trillion dollars every 100 days, the world is liquidating our bonds and all the central banks are buying gold hand over fist, the writing is on the wall for anyone who cares to look. Back on the subject - I think we are going to be able to buy luxury watches a hell of cheaper in 12 month.

You asked and thats my .02

[ThatOtherGuy7]

^ I’ll check out the book. Thanks for your perspective!

[Vince_76]

Silver 26240st 50th anniversary fullset great condition went at auction for $37.2k

Below retail and moda auctions are typically inflated.

[In-N-Out]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Silver 26240st 50th anniversary fullset great condition went at auction for $37.2k

Below retail and moda auctions are typically inflated.

We are finally at below retail! Once we see blue and green dial ROs at retail price or lower, we will know the flippers are mostly gone