Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Markets looking strong at midday, broad based buying no real stand outs.

The rally that everyone loves to hate keeps going, don't fight the tape.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Thanks, just trying to help

I do not follow or know much about Uber or Lyft as I have never understood what makes them different from cabs or asking friends for rides. The companies themselves cannot seem to figure out what they are or even how to classify their drivers. I am not sure who will still want to "ride share" in this current environment.

Perhaps others can comment but I have no interest here, both have comments in the link below

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...hursday-050720

I like the product as a consumer, but in this rare case the consumer may not be the deciding factor, government will.

I'd watch California's AB 5 law that aims straight at destroying their business model. There is a legal challenge pending but it hasn't stopped other blue states from copying AB5 or even going further. Some state AGs have taken a break from suing the Trump administration to go after Uber and Lyft on top of the legislation.

Unless they not only sue to overturn this type of thing but also fund campaigns of challengers running on "Nanny State Rep. XXX wants to take away your Uber," and win, they could disappear if they have to become a traditional employer with the numerous added costs. They already are unrpfotiable without the costs. If they become a lot more expensive, taxis are back in the game.

[JParm]

TWLO. Wow. Do you try to catch the wave, or is this the peak for the next 6-12 months?

To think - you could've bought it this morning on the 20% rise, and then end up being 22% above where you bought in at. Just crazy.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

TWLO. Wow. Do you try to catch the wave, or is this the peak for the next 6-12 months?

To think - you could've bought it this morning on the 20% rise, and then end up being 22% above where you bought in at. Just crazy.

FOMO... I’m fearful when people this greedy

But great rip if you owned it!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

TWLO. Wow. Do you try to catch the wave, or is this the peak for the next 6-12 months?

To think - you could've bought it this morning on the 20% rise, and then end up being 22% above where you bought in at. Just crazy.

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

FOMO... I’m fearful when people this greedy

But great rip if you owned it!

I do not understand the appeal other than FOMO and speculators, not a stock I would want to own for the long term

[beshannon]

Giving up a bit of the rally into the close which I view as good. I would rather stay in a sideways trading range with maybe a slight upward grind higher as gradual economic activity picks up.

When we have large violent swings that is when the entire market gets nervous

VIX is down 6.5% to ~32, 3/1 upside A/D Vol is light at 270 mm

I took small profits today in trading positions TGT, NKE, KO and entered small in GILD which was 6 pts below my last sale

[cornerstore]

“Beware, the stock market’s being supported by ‘nothing more than an ideological dream,’ economist warns”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...of2&yptr=yahoo

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

“Beware, the stock market’s being supported by ‘nothing more than an ideological dream,’ economist warns”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...of2&yptr=yahoo

Theres a reason they are an economist and not a trader...just saying lol :)

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Theres a reason they are an economist and not a trader...just saying lol :)

Yes we should probably just listen to traders rather than consider what the economist who called the banking meltdowns in 2007-09 has to offer.

Bearish SocGen economist. Albert Edwards is co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale.

[JParm]

Didn't dial into UBER's earnings call, but the CEO must of said something to spin the bad numbers because it's shooting. Either way, I'm happy as a stockholder.

Will have to read up on it later tonight.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Didn't dial into UBER's earnings call, but the CEO must of said something to spin the bad numbers because it's shooting. Either way, I'm happy as a stockholder.

Will have to read up on it later tonight.

Basically they announced $3 billion in losses of which $2 billon plus was a write down of assets, commonly referred to as Big Bath Accounting. Voodoo accounting is another term for it.

“Companies often write down assets in quarters or years in which earnings are already disappointing, to get all the bad news out at once – which is known as “taking a bath." A big bath is a way of manipulating a company's income statement to make poor results look even worse, to make future results look better.”

[cornerstore]

Buy side traders analysis on UBEr

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...of2&yptr=yahoo

Modeling earnings
“When we model Uber’s earnings five years out, our worst-case estimates are around $2.50-$3 per share. If these earnings come through then we’ll make money, but not enough to justify buying the stock. Most importantly, though, we won’t lose money. Uber management has guided that the whole company will be cash-flow positive a quarter sooner than expected, at the end of 2020.”

That seems an overly ambitious time frame, to be cash flow positive by the end of this year, time will tell.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

“Beware, the stock market’s being supported by ‘nothing more than an ideological dream,’ economist warns”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...of2&yptr=yahoo

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Theres a reason they are an economist and not a trader...just saying lol :)

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Yes we should probably just listen to traders rather than consider what the economist who called the banking meltdowns in 2007-09 has to offer.

Bearish SocGen economist. Albert Edwards is co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale.

“THE only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” John Kenneth Galbraith

An interesting video explaining the disconnect between the economy and the market in light of recent events and throughout the last century or so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ECqDaPjjV0

[cornerstore]

The biggest disconnect is the commoditization of the stocks themselves vs their underlining values by any historical metrics. The market darlings are buying back their own stock and not splitting as was historical, amplifying the disconnect . These darlings have have become must have holdings to a new group of investors and fund managers. Eventually every commodity finds its real worth and 100 P/E’s and billion dollar qtr. losses will out weigh bragging rights.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Yes we should probably just listen to traders rather than consider what the economist who called the banking meltdowns in 2007-09 has to offer.

Bearish SocGen economist. Albert Edwards is co-head of global strategy at Societe Generale.

We can name drop all day. A broken watch/clock is right twice a day. There are plenty of reputable bears and bulls on both sides my friend. It's like the Nautilus bears and the Rolex steel bears that screamed for 3 years "overvalued! bubble bubble toil and trouble!" They might finally be proven right. Except they missed 3 years of amazing returns and what a ride it was :D

We all know we will see another crash in our lifetimes based on the fundamentals - will it be in 3 days, 3 months or 3 years is the question?

[austinp]

I'm officially in the green for 2020! I didn't think it would recover that fast but I'll take it.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

I'm officially in the green for 2020! I didn't think it would recover that fast but I'll take it.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

Protect your gains and your portfolio

The key to building wealth is to not give back the rise in value

[beshannon]

Jobs number: 20.5 mm jobs lost in April, unemployment 14.7

This number is largely a guess based on who is still looking for work, who is furloughed, who is being paid but not working . . .

Hence the market is looking past this number believing that the worst is past. Maybe? Maybe not?

All I can do is stick with my plan, keep my trading tight, watch my limits and look for opportunities.

I still believe that in 12-18 months we will be better and be higher.

DIS has run fast on Shanghai reopening at 30% capacity, I took profits and am not chasing

I may look to take some short term profits today in small positions as I believe we are nearing the top of the trading range

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

All I can do is stick with my plan, keep my trading tight, watch my limits and look for opportunities.

I still believe that in 12-18 months we will be better and be higher.

These are the two keys for long-term investors. I have no doubt that we'll be in a better place in a year, and there are still opportunities to be found out there.

It can be tough watching on a day-to-day basis - wanting to chase the green or latch onto a stock that's hot at the moment, but just stay disciplined...obviously easier said than done.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The key to building wealth is to not give back the rise in value

So true. It takes real discipline to close a position that is getting greener every day but that's the key to building net wealth.
I've failed on this many times in the past and held on too long only to "give back" the rise in value as you say.
I'm getting better though. Setting limits is a big help - let the machines take away the dangerous temptations that come with choice.

[beshannon]

Markets holding up nicely, FOMO and short covering, nearing 2950 on the S&P again

I would not be surprised to see some profit taking into the close as earnings are winding down and with the jobs number behind us traders will again focus on shorter term news

Stay sharp

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Markets holding up nicely, FOMO and short covering, nearing 2950 on the S&P again

I would not be surprised to see some profit taking into the close as earnings are winding down and with the jobs number behind us traders will again focus on shorter term news

Stay sharp

Hoping so - trying to re-enter into a few tech stocks that have run away from me this week.

Have my eyes on COST and LOW as well, and debating V and AXP.

[BrazenC5]

Is anyone else waiting for the next drop in the market?

It seems crazy to me that the market is up +300pts because the jobs report isn't as "bad" as expected. ONLY 20.5M unemployed vs the expected 21.5M.

What in the hell, how crazy is that.

Yah, unemployment is only 15% instead of 16%, party time!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[m j b]

Originally Posted by BrazenC5

What in the hell, how crazy is that.

I think it is totally nonsensical, and I am on the sidelines now.

[MichaelFlash]

Took a position in SPCE...looks like it may be a runner

[bryan13]

This entire rally is being help up by the after hours traders. If you look at /ES this week, during trading hours only (9:30-4) the market has made a net move of -5 points. However, if looking only at trading during extended hours, the move is +124 points. Volume after hours is about 1/4 the volume during the normal trading hours. When futures move higher overnight, like they have each day this week, equities follow suite. Now each day you have stocks opening higher than the day before following no news, no earnings, just small volume after hours movement to support and prop up the entire stock market.

[cornerstore]

Everyone who is bullish says the market is not the economy and the market is forward looking. Fair enough. How does that compute when the Nas is higher than it was on Jan1 before all this disruption. Is the market saying things are looking better than they did at the start of the year. If that is the case the market is psychotic not psychic.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by BrazenC5

Is anyone else waiting for the next drop in the market?

It seems crazy to me that the market is up +300pts because the jobs report isn't as "bad" as expected. ONLY 20.5M unemployed vs the expected 21.5M.

What in the hell, how crazy is that.

Yah, unemployment is only 15% instead of 16%, party time!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

That's because the initial huge drop in March priced that bad news in already. If it's not as bad as thought, will raise the current markets. Though non tech stocks are still significantly below pre-Covid levels.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

We can name drop all day. A broken watch/clock is right twice a day. There are plenty of reputable bears and bulls on both sides my friend. It's like the Nautilus bears and the Rolex steel bears that screamed for 3 years "overvalued! bubble bubble toil and trouble!" They might finally be proven right. Except they missed 3 years of amazing returns and what a ride it was :D

We all know we will see another crash in our lifetimes based on the fundamentals - will it be in 3 days, 3 months or 3 years is the question?

Not name dropping but injecting an opposing opinion to all the rah rah .

“He called the relationship between the S&P and analyst expectations for long-term earnings growth — the PEG ratio — a “showstopper” that just hit historic levels of 2x. A PEG ratio above 1x typically means a stock is considered overvalued relative to its long-term earnings growth expectation.

Edwards compared it to the dot-com bubble when valuations were nearly as stretched.”

[JParm]

I pulled out of GILD - not making enough movement for me and I don't know if they can truly monetize remdesivir in the near term.