Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Hoping so - trying to re-enter into a few tech stocks that have run away from me this week.

Have my eyes on COST and LOW as well, and debating V and AXP.

Agreed, although I believe the pop in COST was temporary and I prefer HD to LOW. As for Fintech, yes it has run too far, I am waiting for a further pullback in those names.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I pulled out of GILD - not making enough movement for me and I don't know if they can truly monetize remdesivir in the near term.

Exactly the reason I rebought, they were never going to reap any windfall from Remdesivir, rather their balance sheet, product portfolio and yield are a very good long term story. Once the air came out of the trade, that is why I went back in.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly the reason I rebought, they were never going to reap any windfall from Remdesivir, rather their balance sheet, product portfolio and yield are a very good long term story. Once the air came out of the trade, that is why I went back in.

Can't disagree with your reasoning there; I just have other stocks on the list that I'd rather move the money around to.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by m j b

I think it is totally nonsensical, and I am on the sidelines now.

Kind of reminds me of a bunch of people out in the cold racing into a burning building because it’s warm inside. Not rational but momentarily gratifying.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Can't disagree with your reasoning there; I just have other stocks on the list that I'd rather move the money around to.

And I find myself in that position all the time Not enough cash

[BrazenC5]

Originally Posted by supernova

That's because the initial huge drop in March priced that bad news in already. If it's not as bad as thought, will raise the current markets. Though non tech stocks are still significantly below pre-Covid levels.

"Not as bad as thought" is the point I was making...even though deaths aren't as high as the early projections, the current unemployment is devastating to the economy for the next 12-24 months and the market level is showing denial. At least currently, this market has a ways to fall when consumer spending dries up over the next 12 months.

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[JParm]

Strong close to a solid week. Bought into a few smaller tech names this morning that ended nicely.

We'll see what next week has to offer!

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

“Beware, the stock market’s being supported by ‘nothing more than an ideological dream,’ economist warns”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...of2&yptr=yahoo

That's all it has ever been. Dividends are one thing but really stocks are bought with the idea that someone else will pay a higher price in the future.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by m j b

I think it is totally nonsensical, and I am on the sidelines now.

I’m with you on the sidelines have been for awhile. While looking around for any rationale for the market all roads led back to QE, nothing more, nothing less. Like getting free quarters to play the slots. Trillions being pumped into ETF’s and the necessary buying of the underling securities melts it up. This was what I referred to as the emperor has no clothes phase in a previous post. People are seeing through it and it may have serious unintended consequences for all assets and consumer sentiment. Hyper inflation is one example as public companies crank up margins and do not recall some employees to cut costs to offset drops in sales, so as to satisfy investor demands at these historically high stock prices. The private sellers of distressed assets say, hey what problems look at the Dow and all the cheap money. Not a good way to build a foundation only on the backs of a few names.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

That's all it has ever been. Dividends are one thing but really stocks are bought with the idea that someone else will pay a higher price in the future.

Except if you are a short seller:)

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by BrazenC5

Is anyone else waiting for the next drop in the market?

It seems crazy to me that the market is up +300pts because the jobs report isn't as "bad" as expected. ONLY 20.5M unemployed vs the expected 21.5M.

What in the hell, how crazy is that.

Yah, unemployment is only 15% instead of 16%, party time!

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I'm starting to wonder what it will take for the market to drop to be honest. No matter the bad news that comes, the market only seems to care about positive news right now.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by watchmework

I'm starting to wonder what it will take for the market to drop to be honest. No matter the bad news that comes, the market only seems to care about positive news right now.

This is interesting for the Bull case and worth a read if you like me are bearish. Makes good points for why it is plowing ahead.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...content=link-1

[austinp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Protect your gains and your portfolio



The key to building wealth is to not give back the rise in value

What strategy do you use to protect gains? Stops on the sell side? What percent? I don't sell when it's going up. I wish I had stops in place in March to sell the pull back but I've never been good at selling. I typically just buy on the dips. Thanks Brian. Always appreciate your insight.

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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by watchmework

I'm starting to wonder what it will take for the market to drop to be honest. No matter the bad news that comes, the market only seems to care about positive news right now.

This guy thinks it won’t drop again.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...ain-2020-05-08

I guess they consider most of the jobs lost at the moment to be fairly insignificant in terms of the interests of “the market”.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

This is interesting for the Bull case and worth a read if you like me are bearish. Makes good points for why it is plowing ahead.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...content=link-1

Thanks for sharing, definitely a case to be made for sure.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

This guy thinks it won’t drop again.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...ain-2020-05-08

I guess they consider most of the jobs lost at the moment to be fairly insignificant in terms of the interests of “the market”.

Thanks Fleetlord! It's funny, depending on how the market is going I tend to see correlating articles for it on MarketWatch...ie market is up for the week, a lot of the articles are bullish...vice versa. We are in unchartered territory but I agree with him on quite a few points, a dip will come but how much of a dip it is and how long it takes til we get there I have no idea. I just don't see how we get back to the lows in March anytime soon, the bears are running out of ammo.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Except if you are a short seller:)

Good point, it is sort of a game. I think when people get the sense that something isn't worth as much as they thought it was they start to sell. I think this current rise in the market is a lot of people thinking they're missing out. I also wonder how many people didn't panic like in 2009. If you went into a coma in February and woke up today you would never know anything happened in the market (roughly speaking). I'm in for the long haul and I added to some core holding like MCD,KO,HD,MSFT,VOO. I did take a beating on BA but I feel like they'll be back. I think the job market will recover pretty quick, I'm optimistic in general but I'm too close to the end to start gambling

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Strong close to a solid week. Bought into a few smaller tech names this morning that ended nicely.

We'll see what next week has to offer!

Agreed although I would not be surprised to see a pullback and would welcome one, several names have run away from me and I raised more cash into the close yesterday.

Originally Posted by austinp

What strategy do you use to protect gains? Stops on the sell side? What percent? I don't sell when it's going up. I wish I had stops in place in March to sell the pull back but I've never been good at selling. I typically just buy on the dips. Thanks Brian. Always appreciate your insight.

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For short term trades I use 10% as my limit to the down side, I set limit orders. As for selling on the way up, it depends. If I want to keep the position I usually will sell my cost at some point and allow the profit to remain in the position. In other trades for the shorter term I will take profits after the stock seems to have made a nice move in a short period of time.

Sorry I cannot be more specific, some of it is just feel. Yes I always have the possibility of leaving money on the table, I simply take my profits and move on.

Here is an example, I bought GILD back in March based on vaccine news. In addition the stock has a great balance sheet, dividend and product portfolio.

The stock moved higher, slid back . . . until the Remdesivir news when the stock popped up hard. I sold with a 16 point gain.

I recently bought my shares back after being 6 points below my last sale. My view on the stock has not changed but I could not ignore the huge run on news that had little to back it up. Even without the possibility of a vaccine I want to own the stock.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed although I would not be surprised to see a pullback and would welcome one, several names have run away from me and I raised more cash into the close yesterday.







For short term trades I use 10% as my limit to the down side, I set limit orders. As for selling on the way up, it depends. If I want to keep the position I usually will sell my cost at some point and allow the profit to remain in the position. In other trades for the shorter term I will take profits after the stock seems to have made a nice move in a short period of time.



Sorry I cannot be more specific, some of it is just feel. Yes I always have the possibility of leaving money on the table, I simply take my profits and move on.



Here is an example, I bought GILD back in March based on vaccine news. In addition the stock has a great balance sheet, dividend and product portfolio.



The stock moved higher, slid back . . . until the Remdesivir news when the stock popped up hard. I sold with a 16 point gain.



I recently bought my shares back after being 6 points below my last sale. My view on the stock has not changed but I could not ignore the huge run on news that had little to back it up. Even without the possibility of a vaccine I want to own the stock.

Thanks Brian. Do you put stops on core long term holdings also?

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[Mifune]

I got into several handfuls of Ethereum...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Thanks Brian. Do you put stops on core long term holdings also?

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No only because I have already taken my cost out and the long term holdings are for the dividends like HD, JPM, ABBV and WMT

I could sell them but they are pure profit generating dividends

The stops are on trades that I am putting on based on the current conditions, like recent trades I did in GILD, KO, NKE and DPZ

[beshannon]

Rather muted opening today, no big earnings, futures slightly down which is not unexpected given the big run last week

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-051120

I am maintaining my discipline and watching the markets, I increased cash last week but we are once again at the top of this trading range

[JParm]

I'm thinking about dipping into MAR today; with the poor earnings numbers, I would like to buy in should it go south terribly.

Otherwise, still keeping an eye on some tech names to add to positions.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm thinking about dipping into MAR today; with the poor earnings numbers, I would like to buy in should it go south terribly.

Otherwise, still keeping an eye on some tech names to add to positions.

Yeah I was looking at Marriott too. Do you have a buy in price in mind? I would definitely go in at 75 but might be tempted at 80 too. They will be hard short-term, no doubt, but they're in a solid position for when travel picks up again.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Yeah I was looking at Marriott too. Do you have a buy in price in mind? I would definitely go in at 75 but might be tempted at 80 too. They will be hard short-term, no doubt, but they're in a solid position for when travel picks up again.

I don't think 80 is a bad number, but I don't know if I would personally add at that point. I agree with 75 being a target.

It could take longer for the Marriotts of the world to recover, what with all the restrictions to social distancing and the required spending / lost revenue to meet some of these requirements (e.g. glass between associates and customers, set vacancy rates, etc.).

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't think 80 is a bad number, but I don't know if I would personally add at that point. I agree with 75 being a target.

It could take longer for the Marriotts of the world to recover, what with all the restrictions to social distancing and the required spending / lost revenue to meet some of these requirements (e.g. glass between associates and customers, set vacancy rates, etc.).

Cheers. Would definitely be a 12m+ hold time at least (unless something unexpected shot the price up) but I can see this one trading at 120-ish within 12-18 months. Let's see what it does today.

[RyanO]

I've been trying to re enter Marriot since I closed my long position at 90. Agree 75-80 would be a nice entry point, as I would like to own the name for the eventual recovering in travel - which may admittedly be a slow grind.

[huncho]

anyone eyeing/buying any airlines?

[logo]

Wow AMC is off to the races today

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Wow AMC is off to the races today

supposedly due to talks of Amazon making an acquisition of AMC. Speculative...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by huncho

anyone eyeing/buying any airlines?

I am not. I am not interested in speculating on anything in the travel/leisure space.

Don't look at where a stock has been, look at where it is going. They are all down for a reason and their business will take a very long time to improve. Even then the new debt they have piled on top of old debt just makes these stock toxic for the long term IMHO.

Will some pop higher? Possibly but I am investing not day trading