Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Vince_76]

I know an SA at WoS who specifically said it’s very slow. Among other data points.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

Demand will always be high for some markets & some models, the way it always has been. However, I'm sure the ADs are instructing staff to avoid saying things like "oh my goodness it is CRICKETS!" or "Well, you're the 11th person I had to call to sell this watch!" It is in their interest to milk this as long as possible and maintain that air of exclusivity. If all of a sudden everything is available for everyone, the allure will likely vanish. What good would it do for an AD or SA to say the market is down?

For what it is worth, 3 months ago my SA at AP was upfront and admitted to me that things were slowing down and he expected that some pieces would be in the cases in 2023. Will any RO? He said probably not. Any AD that states things haven't changed are full of it. Yes of course, the hype models are still in demand but ladies pieces and PM are not. I went to Rolex a few weeks ago inquiring about a ladies piece and you would have thought I asked for a Daytona and was quickly dismissed (same piece that has been siting unsold on Moda for months). It's all smoke and mirrors.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I know an SA at WoS who specifically said it’s very slow. Among other data points.

I visited an AD in my area as I happen to be driving by and popped in, this was just after the new year. To my surprise the SA also admitted how slow it was even during Christmas and that there is a lot less foot traffic.

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[jgrae]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

I visited an AD in my area as I happen to be driving by and popped in, this was just after the new year. To my surprise the SA also admitted how slow it was even during Christmas and that there is a lot less foot traffic.

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If ADs want foot traffic perhaps they can carry some stock. Something for people to look at and try on at least. Walking into an AD and being told "of course we have no inventory" is humiliating.

[Mr Ben]

I’ll be able to tell you exactly when AD’s are starting to struggle. I’ve had my interest noted for a 124060 forever and the SA confirmed they would take me on but I’m right at the bottom of their list. As soon as they’ve phoned me, the lists are done and stuff will start appearing in store!

[messikens]

Originally Posted by jgrae

If ADs want foot traffic perhaps they can carry some stock. Something for people to look at and try on at least. Walking into an AD and being told "of course we have no inventory" is humiliating.

I agree - I've come to accept that there's no stock at AD or boutiques. But I'd rather visit an AP house and actually try on a few pieces and spend 45 minutes chatting watches and getting a coffee.

Last time my visit to the Rolex boutique was a joke. SA is completely disinterested and barely makes eye contact, only a TT daytona, a BLNR and a black SkyD as expo models (otherwise almost barren) and couples trying on 31mm OPs. I mean what's the point of this?

Add to that the other sales staff from Tudor was entirely inexperienced and could not even answer a basic strap cost question (the answer was "probably between $100-$200 but I don't really know"...)?!?

[Michigan_State]

haven’t visited my AD for a long time. Plotting, hoping, chatting, casually stopping by, being on lists, all in an attempt to just buy a watch is simply belittling. I will be back once things return to normal (if ever).

[Vince_76]

Daytona panda full set, April 2022, sold for 26k. A new low.

[Swiftneck]

Most watches listed on grey sites or chrone24 in my area are consigment watches to make the market look higher.

Then the grey then list their own watches directly in different sales group as great offers at least 10-15 % cheaper. These watches do actually often sell, too unaware customers, so I think their strategy works, and they get their own watches which they been buying cheap sold with higher margin, and keeping business going.

Those greys holding large stock have much bigger problem's even though this strategy also help them slowly decrease stock at reasonable prices.

We don't have many grey with big stock in my area, though. So the listed prices are keept high still, and the ongoing price reduction is mainly driven by private sellers in different sales groups.

Many private sellers have lost a lot of money while their watches have been kept hostages in consignment at unrealistic prices. I think we will see the race to the bottom when these private sellers lose patience and start dumping their watches on the market them self, which will make their losses even bigger.





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[train-time]

I don't know exactly how it is going this month as I haven't been to visit my AD since December, but he told me back then that the period covering September through November had been the slowest that they have had in the last few years. Previously during the Pandemic, he told me that they had broken sales records month after month. December is the time he started texting me with pictures of new pieces that had come in and were available for purchase. I passed....

[Etschell]

It will revert to mean along with cars.

[Mathematoxic]

April 2022 pre-owned panda Daytona asking price $26k, sold. About 2 hours ago.

[jgrae]

"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by jgrae

"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb

Who’s nassim?


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[ExplorerI]

Guy just said he had 2 Royal oak Jumbo blue dials one at 50k and one at 54k. Haven’t seen those prices in a while for the jumbo.

[hotchicken]

this thread is awesome, it's like we are documenting the demand and price falls in real time. history in the making, it's exciting lol

[amh]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

I visited an AD in my area as I happen to be driving by and popped in, this was just after the new year. To my surprise the SA also admitted how slow it was even during Christmas and that there is a lot less foot traffic.

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This news pleases me. Let's see how long it takes them to remove the $50k jewelry requirement prior to an SS "allocation"

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Not really. Call a dealer and see what they’d offer you for some pieces. Either consignment or major lowball.

As for MODA, there’s plenty of mint/BNIB stock. And note that most active participants are brick and mortar greys/TRF trusted sellers/reputable dealers.

I have called a dealer. They give pricing in line with what other grey dealers give. I'm still being offered over 2x for some of my watches if I were to sell. I'm not sure what dealers you are speaking with. If you talk to some backpack flipper then I'm sure they will give a horrible offer. But respectable large grey's, are still giving decent pricing close to the selling prices they are asking for. Though any dealer I have spoke to always preferred consignment even during the craze. They always low ball if you offer to sell it to them outright. Consignment is always the way to go for years.

Originally Posted by *M5

I'd also like to contribute my findings from Moda. Joined over a month ago.

I am a buyer right now for several models from Rolex, AP and Patek.

The listings that are on the cheaper side on MODA are NOT watches I would buy, they look either polished to death, beat up, missing links, papers etc OR they sell VERY fast.

As for the rest, there are plenty of SS Daytonas in the 25-30 range but that is still significant over MSRP.

I only joined MODA because of all the talk in this particular thread but to me personally there are not a lot of great deals to be had.


This is not to say that the market may not be coming down, but to draw attention that MODA is not entirely representative of the market in my eyes as the stock for sale there may not be for the average buyer.

Even if dealers deal there, when you turn around and shop on Chrono24 or Grey big websites, well we alk know how those prices are looking.


MODA is more like the auction block for cars, dealers can turn around, add links, polish, add a box and ask for a bigger premium afterwards, cause most of those watches are seriously sketchy.

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Glad someone whom isn't the usual suspects shed some light on what I have been saying for a while now.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Guy just said he had 2 Royal oak Jumbo blue dials one at 50k and one at 54k. Haven’t seen those prices in a while for the jumbo.

What guy? What year? What condition? These are all important details.

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I have called a dealer. They give pricing in line with what other grey dealers give. I'm still being offered over 2x for some of my watches if I were to sell. I'm not sure what dealers you are speaking with. If you talk to some backpack flipper then I'm sure they will give a horrible offer. But respectable large grey's, are still giving decent pricing close to the selling prices they are asking for. Though any dealer I have spoke to always preferred consignment even during the craze. They always low ball if you offer to sell it to them outright. Consignment is always the way to go for years.



Glad someone whom isn't the usual suspects shed some light on what I have been saying for a while now.

So you say you’ve been getting offered 2x times retail but then say it is actually for consignment…it’s not exactly the same thing is it.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Nicof

So you say you’ve been getting offered 2x times retail but then say it is actually for consignment…it’s not exactly the same thing is it.


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Exactly. 911 - please list the greys that are offering 2x and for what model?

I have called brick and mortar greys, and established dealers - a lot of no offers and definitely not 2x on “hype” references.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Exactly. 911 - please list the greys that are offering 2x and for what model?



I have called brick and mortar greys, and established dealers - a lot of no offers and definitely not 2x on “hype” references.

He actually said, quote

They always low ball if you offer to sell it to them outright. Consignment is always the way to go for years. End quote

Which I understand as, if the grey is buying it it is at basement price, but on consignment he will list it at 2x msrp so that the grey can sell his watches easier, meanwhile you the customer are happy hoping to get 2x mrp which will never happen, at least not in this 2023

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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

He actually said, quote

They always low ball if you offer to sell it to them outright. Consignment is always the way to go for years. End quote

Which I understand as, if the grey is buying it it is at basement price, but on consignment he will list it at 2x msrp so that the grey can sell his watches easier, meanwhile you the customer are happy hoping to get 2x mrp which will never happen, at least not in this 2023

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So essentially he’s typing but not saying much. LOL got it

[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

So essentially he’s typing but not saying much. LOL got it

No, he's in fact saying a lot. He just isn't saying what he thinks.

He's saying he isn't getting a monetary offer at all because watches are not selling.

He is however getting an offer to fund his grey dealer's marketing projects by allowing him to list his watch, at no cost to the dealer, at a stupidly high price to keep the illusion going......


I'm off to my AD this morning to try and find my kid a new watch with hands so she can hand her g shock down to the younger kid. I'll see how it seems for grown up watches when I'm there too..

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by onyourbikes

No, he's in fact saying a lot. He just isn't saying what he thinks.

He's saying he isn't getting a monetary offer at all because watches are not selling.

He is however getting an offer to fund his grey dealer's marketing projects by allowing him to list his watch, at no cost to the dealer, at a stupidly high price to keep the illusion going......


I'm off to my AD this morning to try and find my kid a new watch with hands so she can hand her g shock down to the younger kid. I'll see how it seems for grown up watches when I'm there too..

Thanks for clarifying. Yes, exactly what’s going on on Chrono and even to a degree in MODA. Let us know how the search goes and good luck!

[Laostuh]

I purchased my 116500 off Moda few months ago. Seamless transaction, and I would do it again. Got fair market value for my Hulk and what I thought was a good price at the time for the Daytona. Obviously the values have dipped a little but I can careless. Don't get me wrong.. I'd gladly give the AD my money... They just dont want it LOL..

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

He actually said, quote

They always low ball if you offer to sell it to them outright. Consignment is always the way to go for years. End quote

Which I understand as, if the grey is buying it it is at basement price, but on consignment he will list it at 2x msrp so that the grey can sell his watches easier, meanwhile you the customer are happy hoping to get 2x mrp which will never happen, at least not in this 2023

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Originally Posted by Vince_76

Exactly. 911 - please list the greys that are offering 2x and for what model?

I have called brick and mortar greys, and established dealers - a lot of no offers and definitely not 2x on “hype” references.

Let me clarify with an example. Let's take a 15202st for example. Retail is roughly 30k. If you consign it they sell it for 60-70k. If you sell it to them they want 50-55k.

This spread is the same when I was offered 160k for my jumbo and that grey was selling them for 180k.

That was my point. Consignment is always better if you want top dollar. If you don't care to leave some money on the table sell it outright. Some people may not care about 5k if they are already making 100% return, or 20k if they are making 500% return.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by onyourbikes

No, he's in fact saying a lot. He just isn't saying what he thinks.

He's saying he isn't getting a monetary offer at all because watches are not selling.

He is however getting an offer to fund his grey dealer's marketing projects by allowing him to list his watch, at no cost to the dealer, at a stupidly high price to keep the illusion going......


I'm off to my AD this morning to try and find my kid a new watch with hands so she can hand her g shock down to the younger kid. I'll see how it seems for grown up watches when I'm there too..

This is for backpack newbie dealers sure I agree. Not for bigger grey's. They don't want to sit on the watch. They won't even take it for sale in my experience. My friend wanted to sell his Omega through a grey dealer I have bought watches from. He wanted a number 10-15% above what the grey dealer would ask for it. The dealer refused to take it. He said take it to someone else who doesn't mind sitting on it.

You guys can't treat all grey dealers the same......There is a reason some of them revenue 100+ mil a year and growing. It's not from sitting on inventory.

[Conway]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Let me clarify with an example. Let's take a 15202st for example. Retail is roughly 30k. If you consign it they sell it for 60-70k. If you sell it to them they want 50-55k.

If you consign it they will advertise it for 60-70k.

And frankly I don't believe a dealer will give you 50-55k in a cash sale, no dealer I know would. Can you name them because I've got watches that I'd sell if any dealers are giving good prices.

As I keep saying, it's all just pie in the sky, we can talk all we want on here but the only thing that matters is cash in your hand and I know what I know.

[Nicof]

Originally Posted by Conway

If you consign it they will advertise it for 60-70k.

And frankly I don't believe a dealer will give you 50-55k in a cash sale, no dealer I know would. Can you name them because I've got watches that I'd sell if any dealers are giving good prices.

As I keep saying, it's all just pie in the sky, we can talk all we want on here but the only thing that matters is cash in your hand and I know what I know.

Exactly…my 15202st has now been siting on a respected dealer’s website for two months on consignment at the lowest price out there and there’s basically zero interest. Not one dealer was interested in buying it outright at any price and several didn’t even want to consign it if they answered at all.

The watch is in excellent condition and full set so it’s not like it’s a dud…the market and AP in particular is just extremely slow.

People who believe the contrary are truly delusional at this point.


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