Talking Stocks 2.0

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Why aren’t the banks holding up better? The federal reserve will save the banks at any means necessary. Money is pouring into tech which makes sense, but it was already overvalued before virus. The banks provide decent dividends (if no cuts coming), and they have the fed to infinitely support them. Unlike 2008, banks are in a pretty good place all things considered.

Been wondering the same, I think a lot of the price action has to do with fear of their exposure and write-downs. Having said that, I have long positions in JPM, C, WFC and Bac. I think long term, I'll be glad I picked up these shares.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Been wondering the same, I think a lot of the price action has to do with fear of their exposure and write-downs. Having said that, I have long positions in JPM, C, WFC and Bac. I think long term, I'll be glad I picked up these shares.

Also long in C and JPM and I don't intend on selling. These are great prices still.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Also long in C and JPM and I don't intend on selling. These are great prices still.

Couldn’t agree more. In 5 years we’ll be happy guys. I regret not buying and holding during the last downturn...


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Why aren’t the banks holding up better? The federal reserve will save the banks at any means necessary. Money is pouring into tech which makes sense, but it was already overvalued before virus. The banks provide decent dividends (if no cuts coming), and they have the fed to infinitely support them. Unlike 2008, banks are in a pretty good place all things considered.

Originally Posted by RyanO

Been wondering the same, I think a lot of the price action has to do with fear of their exposure and write-downs. Having said that, I have long positions in JPM, C, WFC and Bac. I think long term, I'll be glad I picked up these shares.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Also long in C and JPM and I don't intend on selling. These are great prices still.

Agreed on all counts, I believe that some believe the banks will not be able to make money in this near zero rate (forever) environment.

I am holding my JPM, WFC and MS for the long term.

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed on all counts, I believe that some believe the banks will not be able to make money in this near zero rate (forever) environment.

I am holding my JPM, WFC and MS for the long term.

The problem with banks is interest rates; Specifically the flattening of the yield curve and the low absolute rates with the specter of possible neg rates in the future despite what the Fed Chairman has said. Banks need a positive yield curve, the steeper the better to do well.

[scarlet knight]

It may take years to reflate interest rates.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Couldn’t agree more. In 5 years we’ll be happy guys. I regret not buying and holding during the last downturn...


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I agree. 40% of my positions are long holds on UK banks and US banks, bought in the trough in late March, and I see them as absolute guarantees of a very decent return over a 2 or 3 year horizon. These positions are no-sell for me until I see 50% return minimum.
I'm seriously starting to consider leisure, travel opportunities now. Taking a 5% to 10% position there, given the big greens elsewhere and the belief that people will desperately want to travel as soon as they are able, is starting to look justifiable to me.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I agree. 40% of my positions are long holds on UK banks and US banks, bought in the trough in late March, and I see them as absolute guarantees of a very decent return over a 2 or 3 year horizon. These positions are no-sell for me until I see 50% return minimum.
I'm seriously starting to consider leisure, travel opportunities now. Taking a 5% to 10% position there, given the big greens elsewhere and the belief that people will desperately want to travel as soon as they are able, is starting to look justifiable to me.

Where would you invest in travel?

I’m long Marriott myself, and also Valero as I believe there will be a surge in vacations that are within driving distance versus those that require air travel.

Was considering picking up LUV but decided I should continue to avoid airlines, in hindsight I should have bought at 23.50...


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[RyanO]

Futures moving down after hours.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Futures moving down after hours.


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We keep bumping up against 2950 and the rally fails and profit taking sets in, normal range bound trading.

Certain stocks and sectors continue to perform, AMZN and FB hit new highs yesterday, oil was up, TGT had good earnings and the new 20 year treasury bond had strong interest

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by LordNewport

The problem with banks is interest rates; Specifically the flattening of the yield curve and the low absolute rates with the specter of possible neg rates in the future despite what the Fed Chairman has said. Banks need a positive yield curve, the steeper the better to do well.

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

It may take years to reflate interest rates.

Partially true, it was taking years to get rates up and just about the time when more rate hikes would have been coming, business shut down.

Banks did well in the low rate environment as they have found other ways to generate income. The fact that they are better capitalized and not facing what they did in 2008 is a good sign.

[beshannon]

Money flows into Tech and Healthcare, beware the crowded trade

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Money flows into Tech and Healthcare, beware the crowded trade

Healthcare...wow. I tend to stay away from things that I don't know, and healthcare is one of those. I'm in one pharma company - that's it.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Where would you invest in travel?

I’m long Marriott myself, and also Valero as I believe there will be a surge in vacations that are within driving distance versus those that require air travel.

Was considering picking up LUV but decided I should continue to avoid airlines, in hindsight I should have bought at 23.50...


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I opened a position in NCLH a few days ago and I'm looking hard at TUI.
I'm aware it will be a long haul investment but I think the returns will be good if I can justify tying up the cash.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Healthcare...wow. I tend to stay away from things that I don't know, and healthcare is one of those. I'm in one pharma company - that's it.

I think at this time it is important to differentiate between healthcare and vaccine stocks.

I own ABBV, GILD, PFE and CVS.

They all have solid balance sheets, can cover their dividends easily and have other products in their pipeline.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Money flows into Tech and Healthcare, beware the crowded trade

The outflow also tells the story about where it came from. Did you note the trade imbalance since ETFs don’t register the rush to liquidity in Feb-Mar selling?


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I think at this time it is important to differentiate between healthcare and vaccine stocks.

I own ABBV, GILD, PFE and CVS.

They all have solid balance sheets, can cover their dividends easily and have other products in their pipeline.

I don't disagree. I think there has been a TON of speculative investors jumping on any bit of COVID vaccine / cure news.

[MechMovement]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I opened a position in NCLH a few days ago and I'm looking hard at TUI.

I'm aware it will be a long haul investment but I think the returns will be good if I can justify tying up the cash.

Hey, fellow UK investor here.

I've also been tracking TUI/IHG/EZJ however cannot get passed the fact that they are all largely dependant on other countries recovery (especially Spain, Greece, Egypt and Turkey).

Just how much of these other countries recoveries have been priced in at the moment?

On the whole what does air travel look like moving forwards (and how can the lower cost airlines remain profitable)?

Once the government stops propping up employees with furlough schemes etc... How many of the millions currently on furlough will remain employed/have disposable income.

It's a little too early for me personally but still on my watch list.

Thanks for all of the informative posts so far all.

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[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/us-w...ss-claims.html

Still a big number, but it's getting better.

Not terrible news, in the big scheme of things.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

The outflow also tells the story about where it came from. Did you note the trade imbalance since ETFs don’t register the rush to liquidity in Feb-Mar selling?


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Agreed, however I did not try to offset the numbers. The last figure I was suggested that there was over 49 billion in money market accounts that has yet to be reinvested.

By any measure, there is excess liquidity and some sectors are now undervalued due to this rotation like Financials, Industrials and Materials. Energy will remain in the doghouse until demand and the price of oil get back above break even for the majors

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by MechMovement

Hey, fellow UK investor here.

I've also been tracking TUI/IHG/EZJ however cannot get passed the fact that they are all largely dependant on other countries recovery (especially Spain, Greece, Egypt and Turkey).

Just how much of these other countries recoveries have been priced in at the moment?

On the whole what does air travel look like moving forwards (and how can the lower cost airlines remain profitable)?

Once the government stops propping up employees with furlough schemes etc... How many of the millions currently on furlough will remain employed/have disposable income.

It's a little too early for me personally but still on my watch list.

Thanks for all of the informative posts so far all.

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It is a tricky one. Greece has done remarkably well with the virus and is opening itself up to incoming tourist flights from 1st July. The beaches are already open, I believe, and they are desperate to preserve the season. Spain is a different story based on the impact the virus had there. Personally I think these stocks will not recover until summer 2021 or maybe even 2022 but when they do recover I think they will recover really well. TUI will be able to ride out the disaster and they, like Jet2, could go on an acquisition spree to gobble up market share from weaker rivals during the recovery.

[JParm]

Banks are holding up nicely, which I take as good news. Hopefully it can continue this way...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Banks are holding up nicely, which I take as good news. Hopefully it can continue this way...

I think they are still out of favor but for the long term they will be fine

[logo]

Still watching MSFT - it's drifting down ever so slightly but not at my preferred buy spot yet. ABBV holding steady rather than dipping - perhaps just building a new base at the 90-92 point so I may enter here. NET I think is probably doing the same, although in a wider window of 27.5 to 29, which is the range where I bought. Compared to FSLY, I think NET is the better long-term buy mostly because of their superior security services, but they also do have a broad customer list - very nice earnings this quarter as well. An interesting one that could really take off in the years ahead IMO.

And then of course RCL, UAL and the rest of the volatility crew. Never ceases to amaze me the jumps these stocks get but I just don't have a compelling reason to jump in here yet.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Still watching MSFT - it's drifting down ever so slightly but not at my preferred buy spot yet. ABBV holding steady rather than dipping - perhaps just building a new base at the 90-92 point so I may enter here. NET I think is probably doing the same, although in a wider window of 27.5 to 29, which is the range where I bought. Compared to FSLY, I think NET is the better long-term buy mostly because of their superior security services, but they also do have a broad customer list - very nice earnings this quarter as well. An interesting one that could really take off in the years ahead IMO.

And then of course RCL, UAL and the rest of the volatility crew. Never ceases to amaze me the jumps these stocks get but I just don't have a compelling reason to jump in here yet.

I own FSLY and DDOG, but not NET. FSLY announced 6M new shares a couple of days ago, and many were expecting $35 or less. It was announced today to be at $41.50, which many are treating as a new floor. Yes, it's a young company, but they are becoming sought after. Their client list is very strong as well, as I've mentioned on this forum in the past.

I haven't done my DD on NET, but will only keep adding on any dips to FSLY between the two.

As for MSFT, I've added there as well recently. They've been trading sideways when compared to the other big tech, but they also pay a dividend - and I don't really see them going significantly lower from here. Strong company to have a foot in.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I own FSLY and DDOG, but not NET. FSLY announced 6M new shares a couple of days ago, and many were expecting $35 or less. It was announced today to be at $41.50, which many are treating as a new floor. Yes, it's a young company, but they are becoming sought after. Their client list is very strong as well, as I've mentioned on this forum in the past.

I haven't done my DD on NET, but will only keep adding on any dips to FSLY between the two.

As for MSFT, I've added there as well recently. They've been trading sideways when compared to the other big tech, but they also pay a dividend - and I don't really see them going significantly lower from here. Strong company to have a foot in.

Yes for sure. I took some profits on MSFT a few weeks ago so looking to get back in for more of a long term position. Realistically I think both FSLY and NET will do well long-term.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Yes for sure. I took some profits on MSFT a few weeks ago so looking to get back in for more of a long term position. Realistically I think both FSLY and NET will do well long-term.

FSLY swung from -3 down today to close at 4 up. Keep monitoring it - anything cloud is the wave of the near future.

SE also did very well today for those interested. They're similar to a BABA, except operating in Singapore and southeast Asia. Ecommerce / FinTech / gaming - they do it all.

[glenn_herwig]

Sold 30% of my SPY position @ average of 295.40. Averaged into APHA at 3.50. Hedging my SPY with SPXS. We shall see how these markets evolve. I’m a little skeptical. But always think long term investing in the US markets is a good bet.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Sold 30% of my SPY position @ average of 295.40. Averaged into APHA at 3.50. Hedging my SPY with SPXS. We shall see how these markets evolve. I’m a little skeptical. But always think long term investing in the US markets is a good bet.

I've been in APHA since the March lows. A lot of sideways trading on that guy until today. Glad to see the company finally going up.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I've been in APHA since the March lows. A lot of sideways trading on that guy until today. Glad to see the company finally going up.

I picked up some APHA a little while after you mentioned it. Today, after seeing the continued strength in the price action, I added to my position. Curious to see where this one goes. It’s moving up slowly after hours, too.


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