Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Wow my NCLH position has skyrocketed today (that's the good news) but like an idiot I ignored my instincts on TUI from when I posted this last Friday. I listened to some bear sentiments I'd read elsewhere, got influenced and missed out on it and it has risen 60% today. Could have made a killing.
Two lessons in this:

1. Don't be distracted by noise
2. Be grateful for gains you have made rather those you've missed out on

Still hurts though.

Exactly!

Financials and airlines are the movers today so far

[MechMovement]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Wow my NCLH position has skyrocketed today (that's the good news) but like an idiot I ignored my instincts on TUI from when I posted this last Friday. I listened to some bear sentiments I'd read elsewhere, got influenced and missed out on it and it has risen 60% today. Could have made a killing.

Two lessons in this:



1. Don't be distracted by noise

2. Be grateful for gains you have made rather those you've missed out on



Still hurts though.

Couldn't believe what I saw today either! TUI, IAG, EZJ flying.

Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Good to know, thanks.

Rally back up today in cannabis caused my this:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357757...-weed-in-state

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by MechMovement

Couldn't believe what I saw today either! TUI, IAG, EZJ flying.

Sent from my GM1913 using Tapatalk

I did take a decent position in IAG (no way British Airways will fail) last week and that has done OK.

Rightmove also doing great - they have one of the highest operating margins of any listed company in the FTSE so that was a safe bet and its soaring.

On my American stocks it is RTX and C which I'm most pleased about today.

I'm starting to think that a V shaped recovery could well be on now, for real. The will and the hunger and the NEED for this lockdown to end is palpable and that could well translate to spending, investment, re-hiring and growth in a shorter space of time than many thought possible.

Very interesting times.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/stoc...-is-ahead.html

Take it for what you will...don't fight the tape!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I did take a decent position in IAG (no way British Airways will fail) last week and that has done OK.

Rightmove also doing great - they have one of the highest operating margins of any listed company in the FTSE so that was a safe bet and its soaring.

On my American stocks it is RTX and C which I'm most pleased about today.

I'm starting to think that a V shaped recovery could well be on now, for real. The will and the hunger and the NEED for this lockdown to end is palpable and that could well translate to spending, investment, re-hiring and growth in a shorter space of time than many thought possible.

Very interesting times.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/stoc...-is-ahead.html

Take it for what you will...don't fight the tape!

Maybe, I remain cautious as I was back in February although no one could have forseen that black swan event

I am moving stops up and keeping a tight leash on gains, I do not want to give back what I worked hard to earn and I would rather miss out on the next 5% if we fall back. Business now needs to start showing improvement.

[kieselguhr]

Collected nice premiums on all my airlines today. Sold off my small position in CCL for now since everything was called away from me last week.

[JParm]

More good news for the banks.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357762...-h2-dimon-says

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

More good news for the banks.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357762...-h2-dimon-says

We will see how they fare in July when the $600 weekly unemployment bonus goes away. Many people are making more now than they were working a few months ago.

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

More good news for the banks.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357762...-h2-dimon-says

Not needing to continue building loan loss reserves is a statement on the trajectory/health of the economy...good news for everyone.

[kearez]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am moving stops up and keeping a tight leash on gains, I do not want to give back what I worked hard to earn and I would rather miss out on the next 5% if we fall back. Business now needs to start showing improvement.

I am with you Brian, moving my stops. Got lucky on my entry on FDX last week, sitting and waiting until Q2 before any larger moves.

[beshannon]

Holding up into the final hour, a little surprised to see this

Will need to see the close and how the futures look for tomorrow. If we get follow through this could be a new move. Otherwise it might just be the top of the range bound trade.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Holding up into the final hour, a little surprised to see this

Will need to see the close and how the futures look for tomorrow. If we get follow through this could be a new move. Otherwise it might just be the top of the range bound trade.

Curious your thoughts on the close Brian. Just some healthy profit taking or a lack on buying above 3,000?

Tomorrow’s price action will be important for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Curious your thoughts on the close Brian. Just some healthy profit taking or a lack on buying above 3,000?

Tomorrow’s price action will be important for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it was some profit taking and who could blame anyone for taking something off.

Interesting story today was the stay at home stocks that were leading all got punished as people start to think about being out of their homes

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/stay...downs-end.html

Not a huge shift but this shows the intent of people and their looking forward to other things

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

I think there are quality companies with [relatively] good balance sheets in the airline sector - Southwest.

I’m in the airlines for a lot.

I’m fact, I’m in most of the industries hardest hit by this Coronavirus: airlines, restaurants, cruiselines.

There is always “the sky is falling” crowd. The “this time it’s gonna be different” contingent.

No it’s not.

And then we get far enough away from the moment and people realize that the chances that airlines were going to dilute to insignificance, or that people stop traveling, or stop eating out, or that masks and temp checks are going to stop people from enjoying the beach or summer sun, or going on cruises, was always infinitesimally small.

People forget that all these companies are vehicles to facilitate people doing what they wanted to do then and will want to do even more now - spend money and luxuriate.

There is no ‘brave new world’ here. Just good companies undervalued because people are afraid to live.

I remember the “airlines will never be the same” crap in the fall of 2001. I remember with sars commentators (probably with short interest) saying that airlines will be one of the hardest hit sectors.

Human beings are remarkably adept and finding their way back to normal. And leisure, recreation and entertainment, will always be a part of that.

Hope that everyone is being safe and taking advantage of these coupons.

Just quoting myself from a month ago. It wasn’t popular then and folks are probably still hesitant to embrace the sentiment now.

We’re far from out of the woods and there may still be volatility yet. But there is also a palpable sense of people wanting to get back to normal even as states report increases in Covid diagnosis.

I’ll continue to beat the drum for travel and leisure stocks like I have for two months. They’re profoundly undervalued in my opinion. I’m in nclh ($11), dal ($19.75), luv ($23).

And I’m still buying.

Hibb has been good to me from $9.50 and I’m taking profits now. I think Stor is a multi-bagger so I’ll sit tight through the swings.

Restaurants are trailing for me. I’m in Cake, bjri, txrh, and rrgb. Rrgb is a risk. It may not make it back. But I’ll take that chance.

I can’t say it as sophisticated as some here. So I’ll just say I’m investing in the resiliency of this country.

Hopefully that bet has made others money like it has and will continue to make me money.

Take care and be safe.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Just quoting myself from a month ago. It wasn’t popular then and folks are probably still hesitant to embrace the sentiment now.

We’re far from out of the woods and there may still be volatility yet. But there is also a palpable sense of people wanting to get back to normal even as states report increases in Covid diagnosis.

I’ll continue to beat the drum for travel and leisure stocks like I have for two months. They’re profoundly undervalued in my opinion. I’m in nclh ($11), dal ($19.75), luv ($23).

And I’m still buying.

Hibb has been good to me from $9.50 and I’m taking profits now. I think Stor is a multi-bagger so I’ll sit tight through the swings.

Restaurants are trailing for me. I’m in Cake, bjri, txrh, and rrgb. Rrgb is a risk. It may not make it back. But I’ll take that chance.

I can’t say it as sophisticated as some here. So I’ll just say I’m investing in the resiliency of this country.

Hopefully that bet has made others money like it has and will continue to make me money.

Take care and be safe.

The difference between jumping into airlines 1-2 months ago vs. now is that in that time, the travel industry's stocks have not moved all that much. You could essentially buy airlines for the same price today as 1-2 months ago. Yet the money invested back then in other stocks like big tech could've made you money (compare GOOGL or FB's price from 1 month ago to now). That's why I and others touted the airlines as a "do not touch" back then.

Now that the country is moving in the direction of opening up, it is the right time to buy the airlines and possibly cycle out of big tech, as they seem to have hit a ceiling. I'm long GOOGL / FB / AMZN, and have just recently (last week) opened a position in LUV because of their strength in domestic travel.

Different strategies for different people, but if I can make money in 1 month versus having the money sit there, I'll do just that.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

The difference between jumping into airlines 1-2 months ago vs. now is that in that time, the travel industry's stocks have not moved all that much. You could essentially buy airlines for the same price today as 1-2 months ago. Yet the money invested back then in other stocks like big tech could've made you money (compare GOOGL or FB's price from 1 month ago to now). That's why I and others touted the airlines as a "do not touch" back then.

Now that the country is moving in the direction of opening up, it is the right time to buy the airlines and possibly cycle out of big tech, as they seem to have hit a ceiling. I'm long GOOGL / FB / AMZN, and have just recently (last week) opened a position in LUV because of their strength in domestic travel.

Different strategies for different people, but if I can make money in 1 month versus having the money sit there, I'll do just that.

Very fair points and I agree with your assessment. I guess my [admittedly] gratuitous point is that there always seems to be a fear in these scenarios that gets people to act against the obviousness of opportunity. Every time these national/global events happen there is always the “this time it’s different” existential refrain which it never is. Unlike 2008 I said I would buy the fear this time - in the places where there was the most fear - and I did: travel, leisure, restaurants. You can see it in my posts here from March and April.

The returns have been exponential and since many of those industries were 70%-80% down at their bottoms, the upside is still there unlike some other industries (tech) which has found its status quo ante.

I did make some money in tech but based on my [admittedly pedestrian] research I went outside those big four or five in search of some more potential upside - The Trade Desk, Roku, etc. I just pivoted into travel and leisure much earlier than some others were comfortable because I felt very confident in the stability of those industries despite the hesitations of many in the pundit class.

I may have made out a little better in cost basis but you’re absolutely correct in that what I didn’t know around how long the stock price(s) would languish near the bottoms probably resulted in some opportunity cost.

I still think there’s room to run in the travel sector thankfully so I’ve even been slightly averaging up. Like others here say, due diligence is important as is an assessment of risk tolerance.

[beshannon]

Travel and Leisure will come back

To me it is not about a quick rise in value so I can scalp some profit off a trade, that is not what I do. Others have a different plan.

Those stocks are damaged, their balance sheets are wrecked, to me they are not businesses that I want to have an ownership stake in. That is my plan.

Tech still holds most of my interest since every business can benefit from tech in some way.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Travel and Leisure will come back

To me it is not about a quick rise in value so I can scalp some profit off a trade, that is not what I do. Others have a different plan.

Those stocks are damaged, their balance sheets are wrecked, to me they are not businesses that I want to have an ownership stake in. That is my plan.

Tech still holds most of my interest since every business can benefit from tech in some way.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

I agree with that. GOOGL / FB / MSFT / AMZN are my biggest holdings and I don't plan on selling for quite awhile. My comment on big tech nearing a ceiling is just for the time being and will not affect my holdings there.

I've been doing a lot of consolidation recently, going from a high of 34 positions to my current list of 21, which I'm very happy with.

I've said it before, but if people are looking for tech outside of FAANG / MAGA, I would steer towards cloud stocks like FSLY, a company that specializes in edge computing. They've been down over the last few days as cyclicals have gone up, which makes it a great time to enter. Do your due diligence, but I do think it's a great entry point now and is something that will be essential to businesses as we move forward.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I agree with that. GOOGL / FB / MSFT / AMZN are my biggest holdings and I don't plan on selling for quite awhile. My comment on big tech nearing a ceiling is just for the time being and will not affect my holdings there.

I've been doing a lot of consolidation recently, going from a high of 34 positions to my current list of 21, which I'm very happy with.

I've said it before, but if people are looking for tech outside of FAANG / MAGA, I would steer towards cloud stocks like FSLY, a company that specializes in edge computing. They've been down over the last few days as cyclicals have gone up, which makes it a great time to enter. Do your due diligence, but I do think it's a great entry point now and is something that will be essential to businesses as we move forward.

And while looking at FSLY, look at NET. While FSLY had a huge gain post earnings and has received a lot of attention lately because of that, NET had the same gain but steadily over the past few months. Similar services, but a few differences in their products and business.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

And while looking at FSLY, look at NET. While FSLY had a huge gain post earnings and has received a lot of attention lately because of that, NET had the same gain but steadily over the past few months. Similar services, but a few differences in their products and business.

Agree. A lot of very good, relatively cheap cloud companies out there still.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree. A lot of very good, relatively cheap cloud companies out there still.

There's also quite a few data center REITs available which have been doing quite well and also pay decent dividends. I have DLR and EQIX personally

[Duey]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

I’ll continue to beat the drum for travel and leisure stocks like I have for two months. They’re profoundly undervalued in my opinion. I’m in nclh ($11), dal ($19.75), luv ($23).

And I’m still buying.

Travel and leisure isn't coming back anytime soon. In fact most of the airlines have already announced massive layoffs on Oct 1, the day after the government funds run out.

Look at LUV stock from mid 2013 and earlier. Then look at it in mid 2009 ($5 to $6)

So a great buy at $23 ?? (not even close to where it's going down to ...)

[k_buckle]

My pocket is shielded at the moment, happy shopping.

[logo]

Not too pleased about today, but, interesting to see all the consumer-driven stocks start out +10% and drift towards neutral or red. If tech falls, it all falls.

[JParm]

A lot of rotation out of tech / stay-at-home stocks.

Is it healthy? I don't know necessarily think so, as seeing big tech go down so big like this while cyclicals / consumer discretionary / banks go up can't be a good sign for the market as a whole.

[RyanO]

Not liking it either. Was hoping for some follow through above the 200 day today... Guess not.

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

A lot of rotation out of tech / stay-at-home stocks.

Is it healthy? I don't know necessarily think so, as seeing big tech go down so big like this while cyclicals / consumer discretionary / banks go up can't be a good sign for the market as a whole.

This is a combination of rotation out of techs which were a safe haven, accelerated downward by the hedge-funds/traders to pick up all those stop-loss shares before the big rally on vaccine news. Good time to be buying select tech today.

[logo]

Anyone with thoughts/opinions on shopify? Stock price seems a bit high, a bit of a Tesla cult stock vibe but with higher probability of near term price justification.

[Fleetlord]

It looks like (in the minds of some of the public and the market), the whole Covid-19 thingy is over.

‘Stay at home” stocks are old news and getting cold. The money is going after values in travel and other stocks held back by the lockdown.