What do you think of the watch market status

[majidessa]

Intrest rates are down with more reductions by end of year, Gold is all time high, stocks and crypto currencies are doing well, do you think that the demand for watches in general and Rolex in particular will increase which will dirve up secondary market prices or the watch market has stabled and the bubble has burst ?

[BriansRolex]

Personally I think the watch market has been pretty stable and if anything we see a small uptick in pricing going into the holidays but who knows since nobody has a crystal ball

[Barada7]

Trending down for the majority of watches. Stable or up for the rarer birds: Daytona, Pepsi, Blue SkyD.

[Krash]

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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[swils8610]

New will still be hard to get. Used prices may drop a little. I believe it’s the new normal


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[Mystro]

Watch market is stable but economy is crap and cost of living is up for the majority of people. Gas and fuel prices are up with winter coming. I think purchases for luxury items is down for the aspirational buyer.

[GB-man]

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GB-man

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

they don't call it the tank seng for no reason, their market is trash and has been forever lol

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Krash

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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Don’t interest rates usually fall early in a recession and then rise later as the economy recovers?

I’m not sure as you are the expert in this area?

[4reRlxGuy]

Originally Posted by GB-man

My friend pointed out to me a year ago or more that the reason the watch market never came back was because Chinese equities never came back. That’s half the buyers right there. I believe it.

The local Ferrari dealer has new cars that were ordered but not picked up at the last event they hosted (those cars are on their website).

All the cars that were available were ordered by "Chinese buyers" whose financial situation has changed therefore unwilling to be picked up.

[4reRlxGuy]

Apologize - the cars are not on the website. They don't want people to realize demand has weakened.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Krash

Let’s not lose sight of why interest rates were lowered. They were lowered to mitigate against a possible recession, which some say still might be in the cards. Plus, employment numbers aren’t great. Lots of companies are still laying people off.

That said, the watch market tends to track with the stock market, gold, and crypto. If they go up, and I think all of them will, then the watch market will likely go up as well. Nowadays, the watch market doesn’t seem to move with GDP or unemployment data. So I think there is potential for luxury watch demand to increase, not decrease.


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Personally, I think two things would need to happen to significantly increase Rolex availability in the United States...30% stock market fall or US unemployment poking up above 6% (if largely driven by white collar layoffs) or 8% if more general.

FWIW, I got allocated my SS Daytona when the markets were down 30% just before Covid lockdowns started.

If you think any of this is a possibility next year, now is a great time to save up funds you could allocate if AD's get a little desparate.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Apologize - the cars are not on the website. They don't want people to realize demand has weakened.

Even easier to hide Rolexes in the vault. I fully expect this to happen if the market weakens significantly.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

Personally, I think two things would need to happen to significantly increase Rolex availability in the United States...30% stock market fall or US unemployment poking up above 6% (if largely driven by white collar layoffs) or 8% if more general.

FWIW, I got allocated my SS Daytona when the markets were down 30% just before Covid lockdowns started.

If you think any of this is a possibility next year, now is a great time to save up funds you could allocate if AD's get a little desparate.

we just had a 30% drop 2 years ago

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Andad

Don’t interest rates usually fall early in a recession and then rise later as the economy recovers?

I’m not sure as you are the expert in this area?

Many different factors determine when the Fed will raise or lower rates. The Fed can lower rates to mitigate an economic slowdown or to counter an economic slowdown that has already manifested itself.

But generally speaking, you're right. Interest rates fall in the early stages of a recession. They rise as the economy improves.

[SLWoodster]

I don't think the price of investment grade Rolexes like this is ever coming down. All of ours, most likely.

In cars, Mercedes 300SL prices, never coming down. Your G wagon, yup, coming down.

[TheVision]

Job wise (here in CA) ain't good. I have a semi consultant-management role and we just let go of like 200 people. And I've known some of them for over 10 years. I couldn't even face them cos they know I'm with "management".

Tech industry in bay area are doing the same. The untold truth for tech is AI is taking over.

And regardless of Youtbuers making clickbat videos, reality is AD's are still slammed as before. Still huge waitlists for sub, daytona, gmt, etc. No one is getting a watch without purchase history. GMT/daytona are still fetching prem in grey market.

The only difference is models like datejust/explorer are now back to post covid demand....zero resale value in grey market so flippers have abandoned these for now. And hence, they are also easier to obtain at ADs. In Vegas, 2 ADs have these for walk-ins weekly. Also in Hawaii ..a friend of mine walked in Maui AD and walked out with a datejust 41 (smooth on oyster).

But all other models are still super hard to get at ADs. At this point, I don't think its Rolex...its the AD's that are now controlling the market and creating this "fake" demand.

[majidessa]

Originally Posted by Krash

Many different factors determine when the Fed will raise or lower rates. The Fed can lower rates to mitigate an economic slowdown or to counter an economic slowdown that has already manifested itself.

But generally speaking, you're right. Interest rates fall in the early stages of a recession. They rise as the economy improves.

True, but in this instance, the reduction of interest rates is considered as a good sign because :

1- Inflation has come down, which means less risk of having an inflated recession which is the worst kind.
2- Current interest rates are very high, which would negatively impact consumers and businesses alike. Usually, you want to maintain a moderate rate between 2 - 3%.

[blswan]

Originally Posted by majidessa

True, but in this instance, the reduction of interest rates is considered as a good sign because :

1- Inflation has come down, which means less risk of having an inflated recession which is the worst kind.
2- Current interest rates are very high, which would negatively impact consumers and businesses alike. Usually, you want to maintain a moderate rate between 2 - 3%.

A 25bps yes but not 50. Very 50bps drop in the past 30 years has been followed by a recession

[blswan]

[1William]

I have found the watch market to be very easy to understand over the years. With the exception of spikes that can not be predicted or forecast, Covid, the market moves up consistently for desirable models with the occasion drop back or downward adjustment and correction. Excluding the Covid spike, hard to do for some, we are seeing desirable Rolex/PP and models from some other brands selling for significantly over msrp, if you could even get them at msrp. Take into account seasonal surges, holidays, watch shows, and what you see is an up and then slightly down market and then it repeats. Speculation on a recession is just that, speculation. Could it happen, will it happen and then will it repeat itself, absolutely. With worldwide demand for sought after models from large manufacturers not abating we will continue to see what we have seen in the recent past. Will prices fluctuate up and down, sure but even if Rolex sent every SS Daytona manufactured to the U.S. demand would outstrip supply for years. What do I do, find the watches I want, at a price I can justify to myself, negotiate, pay and enjoy my watch. Rinse and repeat.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by huncho

we just had a 30% drop 2 years ago

I mark it as 27% for the S&P and 21% for the Dow, and it bounced back relatively strongly over the next 5 weeks.

Something psychological about hitting 30% on the negative that tends to get to people, but sure, call it a 40% haircut to really slow down Rolex buying.

[enjoythemusic]

Fed is panicking, they have a very expensive negative balance sheet that's adding to the USA's national debt (in a shadowy way, not sure if it is legal). Their problem obviously. If China opens up again all bets are off as demand will increase. Overall, awareness of horology has greatly increased. This is great for our love of the history, craft, etc. Tho it does mean, overall, more demand for timepieces than before the Fed's most recent bubble.

[7sins]

Now that the majority of watches are close or at MSRP, much of the demand from flippers or those buying for "investment" have left the market. Most likely, we will never see the extent of the watch market we did during COVID. This is great for those of us that are enthusiasts and accessibility improves.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I mark it as 27% for the S&P and 21% for the Dow, and it bounced back relatively strongly over the next 5 weeks.

Something psychological about hitting 30% on the negative that tends to get to people, but sure, call it a 40% haircut to really slow down Rolex buying.

the nasdaq was down 38% though

[elau1958]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Watch market is stable but economy is crap and cost of living is up for the majority of people. Gas and fuel prices are up with winter coming. I think purchases for luxury items is down for the aspirational buyer.

It is interesting you mentioned gas price is up and you are in PA, literally just down the road from me in MD.

I was on business all week in PA and notice gas price in PA is definitely higher than MD. The regular in MD has been steadily dropping the last two weeks at $2.74. I am sure with schools are back in session and summer vacations by and large are over so it is safe for the price to drop. Until Holiday Seasons in November and they will go back to $3.50.

[elau1958]

I have been checking Chrono24 and find the prices for Rolex have been relatively steady. Not that I think Chrono24 is an accurate indicator but Grailzee appears to be the same.

I want to give my wife a 31mm Date Just with motif dial for our 15th and the AD told me he has no idea if I will get one before the end of the year.

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Buyers’ market. Can’t argue with that

[Hollie_Rollie]

Is anything really moving ? The used dealers look like they just re list the same watch


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[MrWhy]

I would say it's noticeably picked up the last few months for me (in the UK, have a small watch business, treat it as a hobby), before that was quite a bit worse. I have noticed changes in the bigger selling platforms and there fees to be on there (Chrono24 have gone from £69 a month for a dealer to £620, with 90 watches in stock). It certainly isn't anywhere near what it was a few years ago, can't see that happening again. Margin is the same, but sell a lot less watches.