Is There Really a Shortage or Have Allocations Shifted?

[blown5.0]

I would love to see data on actual SS sport models sold YOY. Have they actually decreased? Or is it a combination of a shift in market + higher demand with a minimal increase in supply? Just thinking outloud here. Considering how many grey dealers in Asia seem to have a ton of stock, it makes me wonder if it really is a supply problem.

[pandrew]

Most likely we will never know.

[Junior_]

We will never know. Rolex never reports this. All we can do is speculate.

[Dr Watches]

Find somewhere that has decent stock and you will have shown that allocations shifted. Any dealer will tell you that demand has increased - a lot. People buying to flip, or buying to show of on their insta.

[Shamorai]

We no longer buy them from AD’s. We buy them from greys at inflated prices.

[SkyJuice]

Not surprising, some folk mentioned in HK, every Tom Dick & Harry has a Rolex.

[awol123]

Still waiting for the call on my first Rolex.

[ijpx]

Originally Posted by SkyJuice

Not surprising, some folk mentioned in HK, every Tom Dick & Harry has a Rolex.

I think what’s surprising is most members here don’t know this is not recent thing. Rolex is already common among Asian folks few decades ago.

[Likestheshiny]

Find somewhere that has decent stock and you will have shown that allocations shifted.

This. It's a global market now. Look what happened after the Brexit vote when the pound dropped and suddenly the entire world rushed to buy cheap UK Rolexes. If there were any place out there with abundant inventory, people would be sourcing them there to save money.

And, no, neither China nor Hong Kong is that place. Rolexes are common there (seems like every wrist in HK has a Rolex on it), but you're still not walking into an AD and buying the rare watches.

[Rashid.bk]

I don't think there is a shortage. Just more more greys and resellers. All the watches are available, they're just scooped up by greys and deep pocket resellers who negotiate deals before the watch ever hits the shelves.
If there was a shortage, it would affect everyone, but it doesn't. If you have money to bundle a pm, a Daytona decloaks like a klingon bird of prey ready for purchase. Spend, a hundred grand and you can easily acquire a BLRO...look at some of our members with large collections...easily attained a BLRO.

The rest are fortunate to have a long standing AD relationship and get their models the old fashion way, then there's the odd strike of lightning where someone gets legitimately lucky while traveling or passing by some random AD..
Otherwise any model you could ever want is available in multiples brand new on the resell market. The only watch I assume is legitimately in short supply is the blue Skydweller, it seems Rolex actually does produce very small quantities of this watch based on how many people actually are able to acquire it and it's even scarce second hand.

[Awducker]

As soon as *we* stop buying SS sport watches for 13+k they will be back in the cases.

And I’m begging you. With tears in my eyes. Stop paying over msrp for BNIB watches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Only Rolex knows

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Awducker

As soon as *we* stop buying SS sport watches for 13+k they will be back in the cases.

And I’m begging you. With tears in my eyes. Stop paying over msrp for BNIB watches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That’s what any rational and disciplined mind would do.

[aleeboy]

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

Exactly.

[tjs00]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

And I expect some ADs are fine with it as I am sure there is sharing of that grey profit....

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

[Kalali]

Sorry if this has already been discussed but I see a wide variety of new Rolex watches available, many below MSRP, from online dealers here in US. Just a quick Google search away. Are we just talking about walk-in ADs with actual stores when folks talk about shortages, over MSRP prices, etc.? Just curious.

[rolexforum73]

I bought my first rolex, a 16610 in the year 2000 after a 2 year wait at an AD. At the time gMTs and seadwellers were in the windows but it was a sub I wanted. I inherited some money from my grandfather and spent £2.3k on a dell laptop and £2.1k on a sub. The sub I still have, the dell hit landfill around 3 years later. Lists have been with us on and off for years. Join one, enjoy the wait, and enjoy the watch, that’s always my advice to those who talk to me about lists.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

4 sentences. perfectly stated.

[Dlong]

Back in September of 2017 when I started shopping for a sub, I had no real knowledge on Rolex. Only that is was an expensive handsome watch that would not lose much value. The time was right for a purchase. I shopped a number of local AD's in North Jersey. Common discount was 10%. Subs were in the cases. Once while in the city i went into the Rolex store on 5th. They had a sub with no discount and NYC sales tax. I remember the lady telling me " The subs are going to start getting hard to get, so if you want one , don't wait." What did she mean by that? Did she know something? Again this is back in fall of 2017. Anyway I purchased my sub with a DJ for my wife at a pretty decent discount in October. Now all of a sudden they are tough to find.

[Tha Baron]

There’s an AD I deal with in my wife’s hometown (Midwest) that I’ve bought 2 DJs from. Her folks also shop there for jewelry. When I called the rep about getting the second DJ, they offered me a sub date that someone ordered and no longer wanted. So quickly got 3 pieces in the last 6 months. I ain’t expecting the SS Daytona but I bet I get a call on something else in the next year or so.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by blown5.0

I would love to see data on actual SS sport models sold YOY. Have they actually decreased? Or is it a combination of a shift in market + higher demand with a minimal increase in supply? Just thinking outloud here. Considering how many grey dealers in Asia seem to have a ton of stock, it makes me wonder if it really is a supply problem.

Rolex increases production by around 3% per annum
Percentages of models per instruction by Wilsdorf
Much higher demand,China/Asia driven.
Grey dealers have stock because flippers sell for huge profit..and some buy at hugely inflated prices.

[joli160]

Just a matter of increased demand, strong marketing by Rolex

[Jake B]

Originally Posted by ijpx

I think what’s surprising is most members here don’t know this is not recent thing. Rolex is already common among Asian folks few decades ago.

...and especially in Hong Kong, for several decades as it was occupied and governed by the United Kingdom.

[mnz1118]

I was told by AD that Rolex has resumed shipping sport models in the new year. Everything had dried up in Q4; Rolex wasn’t shipping. I’m seeing more and more in the cases the last month or so.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by mnz1118

I was told by AD that Rolex has resumed shipping sport models in the new year. Everything had dried up in Q4; Rolex wasn’t shipping. I’m seeing more and more in the cases the last month or so.

what do they do in Q4? or is it seasonal work in switzerland?

[exador]

Originally Posted by Jake B

...and especially in Hong Kong, for several decades as it was occupied and governed by the United Kingdom.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

There is no supply issue.

There is a new middle layer that is predatory.

This is what disruption is when you think about it. Increasing revenues without adding any real value.

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Exactly.

Originally Posted by beshannon

Originally Posted by Watch This

4 sentences. perfectly stated.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

what do they do in Q4? or is it seasonal work in switzerland?

Ski.