What was the problem with this 5512?

[Dan S]

This 5512 was auctioned twice on eBay. The first time it sold for $31.5k, but apparently the deal fell through. It was auctioned again, and went for less than $18k the second time. For educational purposes, I'm interested if there was a major flaw (e.g. a non-original part) that bidders identified. The lot included "original" papers ... no idea whether they are legit. IMO, it's an incredibly appealing watch, but I didn't feel knowledgeable enough to bid on it.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/AUTHENTIC-R...53.m1438.l2649

[swish77]

The dial is a little rough, with crumbling lume on several of the plots, especially at 12 o'clock; the insert is shot (cracked at pearl) and I think the original might have had a red triangle as an early 5512; and the papers are hand-written and questionable.

Another issue are the poor photos. You really need excellent angled photos on a gilt dial, because of the potential for crazing/cracking. Throw in the eBay factor, which can be a turn-off for some guys who are true vintage Rolex hobbyists, and there you have it.

If I were in the market for a gilt dial, this wouldn't be a contender at any price.

Here's a good break-down of the early 5512s:

https://www.watchprosite.com/rolex/r...96183.8148798/

[Racer X]

Dial doesn't justify a $31k price tag.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by Racer X

Dial doesn't justify a $31k price tag.

But whoever got it for 18 k made out like a bandit... Just 5 k more than a standard 5513 for a gilt 5512, Swiss-only chapter ring dial with the two-tone four-line text? Case looks OK too.

All day for me at 18 k.

[seattleal]

Originally Posted by zapokee

But whoever got it for 18 k made out like a bandit... Just 5 k more than a standard 5513 for a gilt 5512, Swiss-only chapter ring dial with the two-tone four-line text? Case looks OK too.

All day for me at 18 k.

Agree.

[dhknola]

This is outta my league, but being a vintage fan-boy, 18k seems like a great deal for that watch in today's climate. Despite the pip, looks complete and all original.

[swish77]

Not a great condition dial, and it could be a lot worse than even the poor photos are showing, or better, I suppose. But that's why the seller didn't maximize a better result.

Sometimes the price doesn't matter on a poor or mediocre example, unless you're viewing it as a parts watch.

[kwcsports]

I think it looks cool

[zapokee]

Jacek has one for sale @ 41 k...

[Paul]

... but most of all I just see the market working correctly.

The watch ... for me it seemed to be a nicely average example of a 2nd generation 5512, a most desirable reference for our collector community. I'm a huge PCG fan with a similarly scruffy 5513, a 1675 and a 7928 in my collection and I hope one day to add a 5512, so this auction caught my eye.

Right or wrong, I decided I was seeing a rather nicely patina'd exclamation mark gilt dial, with a nice correct flat hand set, wrapped up in a somewhat soft case. I saw what seems to be a splendid period correct insert, cracked at the triangle and missing its pearl. I saw what seems to be an era-correct butterfly rotor 1560 movement, a case and case-back that are a happy factory match with all stampings correct and legible. That style of papers adds no value for me at all, but I'm just not a 'box and papers' guy. An empty money jar meant I just watched the auction from the sidelines so my due dilligence exercise was a bit lazy. But hey, looks to me to be a nice enough PCG 5512.

The sale price at circa US $18k ... is what the market decided it was worth on the day. And for me, a low reserve auction on the world's largest and most transparent sales platform is the ultimate way to determine fair market value on any given day. A big assumption here but let's say, everyone throughout the world who is currently actively seeking a 5512 PCG was watching the auction, along with a huge bunch of speculators and casual enthusiasts, so a lot of the 5512 fans participated in some way. And at closing time, the market said the watch is worth $18k.

And the gap between $18k on eBay second time round and $31.5 for the earlier failed sale, that's interesting for me . The failed sale would have seen a few bidders avoid the second auction but circa $30k might be about where I'd see value for a hard-core collector, and it's certainly what I'd expect to pay nowadays from a trusted dealer. swiss77 nailed it for me on this thread with their comment on " ... the eBay factor...". IMHO, a wariness of eBay throughout the vintage watch community means that there are still bargains to be found for folk who are not scared of eBay, and have the time and skills to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Through twenty years of collecting vintage Rolex and Tudor watches, I've seen the behaviours and the cycles. In the early days, watches tended to just go from one owner to another, they might have gained a bracelet or a box but often they just got sold and sold again in their 'as-found' state. I miss those days. Then we started to see ratty watches get spruced up and put back to the market in an improved form. Demand rapidly grew for parts to spruce up all those ratty old watches, so a parts trade developed to the point where we were even seeing some nice correct early Submariners and GMTs sell on eBay, only to be quickly broken up with the parts then dribbled on to the VRF market page over the next month or so (sad but true ). A few eBay horror stories over the years convinced some folk that every eBay seller is a crook ... so 'trusted dealers' were able to establish themselves outside of eBay ... and I'd note that some good folk have worked very hard to achieve and maintain their trusted dealer status. Others just enter the market, clip the ticket and upset a few folk, which usually results in short-term participation before they disappear, sometimes never to be seen again, other times reinventing themselves and re-entering the market.


It's a market thing. If that 5512 is as I see it, scaredy cats missed out and the buyer has scored big time. No big deal though, chances are it'll pop up again soon at a dealer near you ... might not be priced at $18k though.

And those behaviours and cycles I mentioned ... nothing really changes. Fast-forward to today. I see a fella active on VRF again this week who was banned five years back from several trading sites for selling fakes ... I guess he's reformed. I also saw a very desirable vintage Rolex item sell to the highest bidder on eBay recently, only to pop up FS on VRF a week later priced at a 200% premium on the eBay price. The VRF seller is doing nothing wrong ... that's just the market doing its thing.

One thing within the 5512 auction that I laughed at. Item location: Law Courts, Australia. Perhaps the watch is from Chopper Reade's estate ? Oi, Oi, Oi

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by Paul

... but most of all I just see the market working correctly...

Thanks for posting, I enjoyed reading your detailed thoughts.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by Paul

... but most of all I just see the market working correctly.

Interesting thoughts, Paul - thanks for taking the time.

Auctions don't always accurately reflect market values, as you state in this case. You only need a couple of nutters with deep pockets bidding against each other, or on the opposite end, a slow day due to various external factors (nice weather, major sporting events, etc.), to see anomalous selling prices.

I'm with you that 18 k is anomalously low on this piece. Pretty sure the buyer could flip it tomorrow for a 5 - 10 grand profit.

[77T]

There is one oddity not accounted for yet.

If the first deal fell through, why didn’t seller just go down the list of losing bidders and use 2nd chance feature?

It’d be a list of people who had bid well over the 2nd auction’s final price...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro