Consumer Behavioral Shift vs. Patek

[MadSpaniard]

Ariel just published the article linked below which, while perhaps a little rambling, examines an interesting trend: the shift from celebratory to status-seeking purchase habits in the high-end watch market.

I thought I'd post it here and inquire:

- What might our esteemed Patek community say about this?
- How might we all reconcile this consumer shift with respect to Patek in general, and with respect to the red-hot Nautilus/Aquanaut in particular?
- And why, really, do we all buy Pateks?

Speak up, I imagine some lively debate may ensue here. Cheers everybody.

https://www.ablogtowatch.com/watch-c...rchase-habits/

[locutus49]

An interesting article if not particularly insightful. Yes, people buy high end watches for status, among other reasons, and, yes, social media has brought heretofore obscure brands like Patek and Mille to the consumer consciousness.

I myself looked at Patek in 1974, Patek and Rolex, but bought Rolex because Patek only had dress watches and I needed a durable watch. I think I learned of both brands through popular literature of the time.

[Bearxj86]

There is a certain level of narcissism that pervades social media these days. Just one look at many people's facebook/instagram accounts will show that even the most well intentioned and discreet people will have a strong bias to showing what is going well in their lives. Who wouldn't? We are social creatures and pea-cocking and social status forms a foundation of our lives.

It is not a surprise that watches are becoming what they are, both a status symbol as well as to celebrate milestones. A fine watch is like a fine sword or suit. It demonstrates taste, an appreciation for true quality and craftsmanship, and enjoying the finer things in life because you can. You can wear it like a big swinging dick or you can wear it discreetly and tastefully - either way you are projecting your self onto the watch and to others when you wear it.

For me, the choice to purchase a watch are based on three factors:
1) Aesthetics and the look (fits my personal style or mood "look" I am going for)
2) Collect-ability and value retention
3) Brand and what it says about you

PS: I have been eying a full YG submariner for a while now and I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that If I do buy one, it will probably for me to wear at home for ME, and probably not much in public :)

[JorgeCCW]

Nothing new


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[locutus49]

Succinct.

Originally Posted by JorgeCCW

Nothing new


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[Fat_ninja]

I didn’t buy high end watches in the past because I didn’t make enough money or I was investing for my future... so for myself. It’s less status seeking but rather I now have discretionary income vs the past. So the shift that is posited possibly is coincidental with the rising wealth of consumers. A decade ago there was the Great Recession.


I skimmed the article but didn’t see any quantitative analysis to back up this shift. If there was it would be nice to also see it vs broader wealth trends, rising middle class, per capita consumption etc.


A family that could get along with one car has 2 or 3 cars...it’s a rising wealth/disposable income thing. Social media is just an alternate marketing tool.


I agree not overly insightful

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I didn’t buy high end watches in the past because I didn’t make enough money or I was investing for my future... so for myself. It’s less status seeking but rather I now have discretionary income vs the past. So the shift that is posited possibly is coincidental with the rising wealth of consumers. A decade ago there was the Great Recession.


I skimmed the article but didn’t see any quantitative analysis to back up this shift. If there was it would be nice to also see it vs broader wealth trends, rising middle class, per capita consumption etc.


A family that could get along with one car has 2 or 3 cars...it’s a rising wealth/disposable income thing. Social media is just an alternate marketing tool.


I agree not overly insightful

It's generally not real wealth, though, is it. (Harking back to a discussion we had previously.)

And I think part of the issue is the monopolisation/oligopolisation of desire. There isn't a plethora of "nice watches" any more, there is one nice watch to which everyone aspires. Just as the internet has led to absolute vs relative winners in business (why would anyone use the second best search engine/online store/social media site?) it appears to have created absolute winners in consumption too (why would anyone want the second-most-shared watch/shoes/car?)

Ergo - professional Rolex and steel PP are the absolute winners of digital global consumptive desire.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Ergo - professional Rolex and steel PP are the absolute winners of digital global consumptive desire.

I agree with the last statement... but part of this is precision marketing no?

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I agree with the last statement... but part of this is precision marketing no?

It's an interesting question, and one to which I don't have an answer.

The manner of social media, and the snowball effect of instant global celebrity means that perhaps in the case of PP, the ball rolled down from one uber-celeb and simply gathered momentum from there. More exposure means more recognition means more desire, multiplied exponentially as the popularity spread. I don't think PP was ever actively involved in this...

Rolex is... well, Rolex. It had the name recognition from before. RM is an interesting case-study as they're definitely working hard on the top-down marketing thing, but have been arguably less successful than PP.

[bruinmd]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

There is a certain level of narcissism that pervades social media these days. Just one look at many people's facebook/instagram accounts will show that even the most well intentioned and discreet people will have a strong bias to showing what is going well in their lives. Who wouldn't? We are social creatures and pea-cocking and social status forms a foundation of our lives.

It is not a surprise that watches are becoming what they are, both a status symbol as well as to celebrate milestones. A fine watch is like a fine sword or suit. It demonstrates taste, an appreciation for true quality and craftsmanship, and enjoying the finer things in life because you can. You can wear it like a big swinging dick or you can wear it discreetly and tastefully - either way you are projecting your self onto the watch and to others when you wear it.

For me, the choice to purchase a watch are based on three factors:
1) Aesthetics and the look (fits my personal style or mood "look" I am going for)
2) Collect-ability and value retention
3) Brand and what it says about you

PS: I have been eying a full YG submariner for a while now and I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that If I do buy one, it will probably for me to wear at home for ME, and probably not much in public :)

spot on.

[GB-man]

Status remains the primary driver of luxury goods purchasing. Some of us have been collecting watches for decades but at the end of the day many are peacocking.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Status remains the primary driver of luxury goods purchasing. Some of us have been collecting watches for decades but at the end of the day many are peacocking.

Is this like the reverse of that? ‘Some of us have been collecting watches for decades’

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Status remains the primary driver of luxury goods purchasing. Some of us have been collecting watches for decades but at the end of the day many are peacocking.

I don't think they're necessarily mutually exclusive.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Is this like the reverse of that? ‘Some of us have been collecting watches for decades’

The implication is that there’s a lot of watch collectors who have come out of the woodwork simply because they are chasing hyped watches that increase in value. I separate them from people who have been collecting for many years and don’t consider this a side investment portfolio.

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I don't think they're necessarily mutually exclusive.

Most definitely not

[Mr Naultilus]

Guy's buy what you like and will enjoy

[pam66]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

There is a certain level of narcissism that pervades social media these days. Just one look at many people's facebook/instagram accounts will show that even the most well intentioned and discreet people will have a strong bias to showing what is going well in their lives. Who wouldn't? We are social creatures and pea-cocking and social status forms a foundation of our lives.

It is not a surprise that watches are becoming what they are, both a status symbol as well as to celebrate milestones. A fine watch is like a fine sword or suit. It demonstrates taste, an appreciation for true quality and craftsmanship, and enjoying the finer things in life because you can. You can wear it like a big swinging dick or you can wear it discreetly and tastefully - either way you are projecting your self onto the watch and to others when you wear it.

For me, the choice to purchase a watch are based on three factors:
1) Aesthetics and the look (fits my personal style or mood "look" I am going for)
2) Collect-ability and value retention
3) Brand and what it says about you

PS: I have been eying a full YG submariner for a while now and I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that If I do buy one, it will probably for me to wear at home for ME, and probably not much in public :)

sorry, i am at a loss, why not wear the YG sub in public? too much wealth display?

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by pam66

sorry, i am at a loss, why not wear the YG sub in public? too much wealth display?

I might - but its not something I would wear comfortably casually.

[Mr Naultilus]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I might - but its not something I would wear comfortably casually.

So may i as why you purchased it?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

The implication is that there’s a lot of watch collectors who have come out of the woodwork simply because they are chasing hyped watches that increase in value. I separate them from people who have been collecting for many years and don’t consider this a side investment portfolio.

Feels like the watch hobby is only for Old independently wealthy folks that can afford to lose money. Almost like a country club in some ways... I could join but I don’t fit in. I grew up in the ghettos.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

So may i as why you purchased it?

I'm eying it - haven't bought it. Admired from afar :)

[sambb]

worldwide many stock markets are at highs and unemployment in the US is at a very low level. During recession, this will all reverse.

[ap1]

My take is: I’m happy these attentIon seekers have increased the value of a few of my pieces but not happy it takes way longer to get the ss I’m interested in. As for status, no way. I grab these when i DONT want to be seen in a Rolex gmt or sub. Like no1 knows the pateks I wear in my circle and I’d like it to remain that way. I buy these things for my enjoyment and I actually get a little self conscious if I feel people are checking out my watch in a public setting. That’s when I pull my sleeve down. It’s also why wg and platinum are my favorite metals. I’d just as soon take the good old days where a nautilus took 6 months and I was fine with losing 15% on a sale. Don’t think it’s gonna happen though.

[martinr]

I’m addicted. I’ve tried to quit but can’t.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by martinr

I’m addicted. I’ve tried to quit but can’t.

Aren’t most of us on here?

[timepieceluvr]

Nobody told me there was going to be psychology involved...


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[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by ap1

My take is: I’m happy these attentIon seekers have increased the value of a few of my pieces but not happy it takes way longer to get the ss I’m interested in. As for status, no way. I grab these when i DONT want to be seen in a Rolex gmt or sub. Like no1 knows the pateks I wear in my circle and I’d like it to remain that way. I buy these things for my enjoyment and I actually get a little self conscious if I feel people are checking out my watch in a public setting. That’s when I pull my sleeve down. It’s also why wg and platinum are my favorite metals. I’d just as soon take the good old days where a nautilus took 6 months and I was fine with losing 15% on a sale. Don’t think it’s gonna happen though.

This too.

[MadSpaniard]

Thanks to everyone for their thoughts and input. Since I started this thread, I figure I should say something too.

I think there's no doubt that "status-seeking" purchases are on the upswing, much of that being fueled by the "look at me" and "do it for the likes" mentality so prevalent in social media these days, Instagram being a prime example. These days so much is about likability, not ability. Skill and craftsmanship aren't the key drivers in this new world. Popularity is.

As for myself, it's almost always about craftsmanship and aesthetics. I buy Pateks because I view them as excellent examples of that. And yes, I'll admit, sentimentality plays into it: I tend to want something that will be timeless, worthy of treasuring and even passing down.

I'll also admit I do like people to notice my Pateks, and they often do, but in the way I want them to: they usually don't know what it is, but they get a sense it must be something, and they often comment "that looks really nice, what is it?".

So I guess I'm not the "celebratory" customer, and I'm certainly not the "status-seeking" variety either. But, I bet I'm not the only one who buys Pateks for the reasons I mentioned above - there's probably still quite a few of us out there.

Cheers everybody.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Feels like the watch hobby is only for Old independently wealthy folks that can afford to lose money. Almost like a country club in some ways... I could join but I don’t fit in. I grew up in the ghettos.

My statement was not directed at you or anyone else unless the shoe fits. And honestly you don’t fit the description at all. You buy Tudors, RM, Patek dress watches and diamonds. If you are trying to avoid depreciation you work in mysterious ways!

[cascavel]

Watches are cars that you can wear on your wrist, which is why it's not a surprise that a lot of TRF members have expensive cars. Watches are portable status symbols which only a select group of people will recognize, hence the trend toward understated stainless which may sell for more than gold. The correct wrist watch will communicate rich (Patek 5980a), adventurous (Rolex Submariner), old money (Rolex Daytona 6263). If the targeted audience doesn't get the message you are trying to communicate then either the watch is wrong (that's why we have so many watches) or you need some other status symbol to communicate the message (like a car or beach house).
Yeah, some people collect watches because they appreciate the history or horological features but they are the exception.

[DVR]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Yeah, some people collect watches because they appreciate the history or horological features but they are the exception.

Mostly here it is all about value. Buying a watch that might lose money , oh the horror