It's not happening...

[Oystersteel92]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/l...172444228.html

On Wall Street, when buyers rush in to buy everything in a particular market, hand over fist, price be damned, it's called a "relentless bid."

Usually this happens when investors see a bull market forming and want to get in early.

It appears a relentless bid is hitting an adjacent market — high-end luxury goods.

Yahoo Finance has been writing about this phenomenon for some time now, whether it be high-end cars, watches, or even boats. There are even luxury ETFs that can capture this conspicuous consumption.

Analysts assumed inflation would tame extravagant shoppers, but so far that's not been the case. Luxury shoppers are still buying at a clip despite price hikes.

[Idaho]

Interesting read

[beshannon]

So not happening is happening?

[T3rmina1]

Seems to be happening

image_2023-02-20_214155484.png

[Calatrava r]

Luxury goods spending remains strong. Money continues to flow robustly to those people in the market for such goods. Plus, in an inflationary environment, people want to lock in current prices on everything.

[tifosi]

Now I have to go back and edit all my "It's happening" posts

[ninjin]

Without the right context, statistics and information can be manipulated to show whichever trend is required.

Bottom line, luxury watches peaked 12months ago and have been sliding ever since. I don't think it has reached bottom yet. I will give it at least 6months for economies to settle and see how the people adjust their spending patterns.

Cars like Ferrari's will never be affected by these small blips in world economies. The buyer of these cars now have to go through hops and over hurdles, even worse than trying to get SS Daytona.

[Travis29]

Waiting for that next crash - what’s the buy Tesla, Amazon, ?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ninjin

Without the right context, statistics and information can be manipulated to show whichever trend is required.

Shhhhh

They are having fun

[Mystro]

Watches are small potatoes to even moderately wealthy individuals. No one is not buying a luxury watch if they have been eyeing one for awhile.

[Smy404]

So hard to tell. Friend at Gucci said sells are down and another at LV said sales are strong. Obviously most are still waiting for their watches from AD's.
But can I say... I want that Rolex box. It is huge!

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Watches are small potatoes to even moderately wealthy individuals. No one is not buying a luxury watch if they have been eyeing one for awhile.

Not even need to be wealthy, just a matter of shifting priorities.
Especially when we're talking attainable $10K +/- pieces, like most Rolex SS professional models. Which brought about what has been going on since late 2018.
Still plenty of cheaply accumulated money available out there...

[Tricolore66]

I’m in that business and trust me, it’s happening. Using a very limited production model like an SP3 is a meaningless sample. The entry-level pre-owned exotic/luxury segment in the $150-250k price point is getting hammered. Contrary to what some might believe, interest rates and down payment requirements are weeding out a lot of those buyers and putting downward pressure on pricing, just as in the residential real estate market.

As far as the luxury watch market goes, once the upside potential when paying MSRP disappears (it already has on many stainless Rolex pieces) so will much of the demand. If it’s not a Daytona or BLNR variant, “darling of the internet” dial color, or very limited (Platona) I predict you’ll find plenty of them sitting in AD cases by the fourth quarter.

[Driver8]

I see the usual belief in never-ending and ever-increasing demand for Rolex watches in the face of....well, literally ANYTHING that could ever happen on planet Earth - is being trotted out again in some quarters.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Luxury goods spending remains strong. Money continues to flow robustly to those people in the market for such goods. Plus, in an inflationary environment, people want to lock in current prices on everything.

I agree Bob.

[Robison347]

Speculators worry about minor moves in market value, but those of us who have collected high end watches for decades have seen consistent growth in their value. You'd be hard-pressed to find any decent Rolex from 2002 or 1982 or 1962 selling anywhere close to original cost.

[MinMay]

anyone want to sell me their sub 1680 or Daytona 16520 for retail price?

[amh]

There's been a rebound for sure, hoping the erosion will resume shortly.

[ratty]

'It' will have happened when I can walk into a Rolex AD, look at, try on and buy the large majority of watches Rolex produce!

In my experience, 'it' certainly has not happened in the UK, nor is there any sign of 'it' happening in the near future.

I fully accept that no longer produced models will sell for a premium, but I do not accept this for lots of current models.

[jb335]

I thought it was raining LVs?


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[Cambo]

Originally Posted by jb335

I thought it was raining LVs?


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[thenewrick]

Economy is strong, mostly world peace, super low unemployment, smart fiscal policy avoiding recession, bubble bursting on meme stocks/crypto, strong growth, low interest rates, etc.

Things are just plain going well and things are very stable. This is translating to everything from housing to luxury goods to stocks.

Funny how smart fiscal policy and good government makes for really boring stable economies and consistent growth.

TLDR things are stable, no big changes expected for several years. Meme references like Hulk and white dial Daytona down more than non-meme references because it's all stablizing.

[ninjin]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Economy is strong, mostly world peace, super low unemployment, smart fiscal policy avoiding recession, bubble bursting on meme stocks/crypto, strong growth, low interest rates, etc.

Things are just plain going well and things are very stable. This is translating to everything from housing to luxury goods to stocks.

Funny how smart fiscal policy and good government makes for really boring stable economies and consistent growth.

TLDR things are stable, no big changes expected for several years. Meme references like Hulk and white dial Daytona down more than non-meme references because it's all stablizing.

I don't know whether you have your head stuck in the sand or you are tongue in cheek....

[DubOhio]

Originally Posted by T3rmina1

Seems to be happening

and yet your on a very large forum of people all on wait list with no intentions of turning anything down...

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Economy is strong, mostly world peace, super low unemployment, smart fiscal policy avoiding recession, bubble bursting on meme stocks/crypto, strong growth, low interest rates, etc.

Things are just plain going well and things are very stable. This is translating to everything from housing to luxury goods to stocks.

Funny how smart fiscal policy and good government makes for really boring stable economies and consistent growth.

TLDR things are stable, no big changes expected for several years. Meme references like Hulk and white dial Daytona down more than non-meme references because it's all stablizing.

Hmmm, it looks to me like all references have dropped in secondary prices not just “meme” ones, whatever that is.

Things are not “just plain going well”, maybe you should ask one of the many thousands of people in the tech industry who have been laid off.

[BillA]

I see 2 types of buyers. The first is the collector who already has multiple watches, the second is a first time buyer. The collector who already has a bunch of watches in the collection, if called by the AD, can let it go, hey they already have a bunch of watches, times are a little tougher so let it go. The first time buyer has been on the AD list for perhaps a few years, he/she is chomping at the bit, I see this person as a buyer, in general, and buys when the AD calls.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by jb335

I thought it was raining LVs?


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[train-time]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Economy is strong, mostly world peace, super low unemployment, smart fiscal policy avoiding recession, bubble bursting on meme stocks/crypto, strong growth, low interest rates, etc.

Things are just plain going well and things are very stable. This is translating to everything from housing to luxury goods to stocks.

Funny how smart fiscal policy and good government makes for really boring stable economies and consistent growth.

TLDR things are stable, no big changes expected for several years. Meme references like Hulk and white dial Daytona down more than non-meme references because it's all stablizing.

I'm not so sure it's not happening. The mainstream news may not be reporting reality but inflation is just as real as eggs are $8 a dozen and mayonaise is up to $9 a jar. Home values continue to fall, interest rates are scaring buyers off or are so high that the buyer doesn't qualify, more and more layoffs on the horizon and on and on.... If you are buying the narrative that the politicians are feeding you that the economy is well and booming, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn that's for sale at a great price!

[Ichiran]

I just recently spent approximately 100k on a dress watch (Romain Gauthier), asked my AD (new AD for me) for a Nautilus and he said that's not enough.

I would imagine in a "happening" scenario, that Nautilus is available for me to buy at any time in the store for 20% off. Having spent 100k on a dress watch and still not enough doesn't appear like a "happening" scenario to me.

[thenewrick]

Inflation just means more people have more money because unemployment is so low. It's a good thing unless you're wealthy in which case your wealth is worth a bit less.

Eggs are still cheap. Can't complain about a $3 omelet when a Happy Meal is $10 or a burger in a basic restaurant is $20 with a drink now.

Mortgage rates are what, 5% now? In the Reagan years it was 17%. People don't know what hard times are anymore.

I guess things are just going well for me and from everything I've seen in the USA. I've lived through bad times. These are good times. Trust me!