Market values

[MazzaBL]

I’m in the process of trading my Daydate 128235, brand new full set, for a GMT 126715CHNR. Retail price for the Daydate is $48,200, retail for the GMT is $40,600. “Market values” for the Daydate are from $47k+, GMT seems to be $41k+. A trusted dealer on here is asking my daydate + $13k for his $45k GMT. Am I missing something? I understand needing to make a profit but asking for a watch with at least a $3k higher market value than what you’re trading + $13k cash on top seems insane to me.

[watchwatcher]

Where are you getting your market values from?

[tifosi]

Sounds to me like you should be having cash coming your way...

[dkg1616]

Are you looking at 40mm DD values or 36?

[MazzaBL]

This is my whole point. How are market values determined? Seems any retailer can pull a random number and call it “Market value”. Who determines market value? I use Chrono24 as a reference and typically look for median value of all listings. Regardless there’s no way a watch with a median market value of ~$45k demands a $13k premium on top of a watch with a median market value of ~$47k

[daveswordfish]

First, Chrono24 isn’t market value. Prices there include fees, etc, so they are a good bit higher.

Second, retail price is not the issue anyway. Your dealer is basically using the retail price of the CHNR vs the “buy” price on your Datejust. Meaning the dealer is valuing the DJ at what he would pay to buy one, and the CHNR at the price he’d sell one for. It’s not “apples to apples.”

Spread still is high, but you also have to consider demand and availability. Not saying I agree with the pricing, but I’m not all that shocked either.


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[Bmats]

If you’re looking at something like Chrono24 that’s not market value. Just looking at some trusted sellers, a DD36 looks to be in the low-40s, and even more desirable DD40s (like rose gold and green dial) are in the range you’re talking about for your 36.

You may be spot on for the full gold GMTII, but there are some trusted sellers that are above your range. So it’s sort of like you’ve got the highest range for your DD36 and the lower range for the CHNR.

Given that, seems like cash should be going from you, not to you, and probably a decent amount. Whether it’s $13k or something less, may depend on condition. But I imagine from a grey dealer perspective neither might be an easy move—so go to make something on the transaction.

[MazzaBL]

It’s a DayDate, not a DateJust. The spread is ridiculous, neither watch is a high demand watch due to being full PM. He’s looking at over $13k profit margin from this one transaction.

Originally Posted by daveswordfish

First, Chrono24 isn’t market value. Prices there include fees, etc, so they are a good bit higher.

Second, retail price is not the issue anyway. Your dealer is basically using the retail price of the CHNR vs the “buy” price on your Datejust. Meaning the dealer is valuing the DJ at what he would pay to buy one, and the CHNR at the price he’d sell one for. It’s not “apples to apples.”

Spread still is high, but you also have to consider demand and availability. Not saying I agree with the pricing, but I’m not all that shocked either.


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[MazzaBL]

So what is market value and who determines it? If 100+ listings on chrono24 are all within $2k of each other, I would say that’s a pretty safe bet for “Market value”

Originally Posted by Bmats

If you’re looking at something like Chrono24 that’s not market value. Just looking at some trusted sellers, a DD36 looks to be in the low-40s, and even more desirable DD40s (like rose gold and green dial) are in the range you’re talking about for your 36.

You may be spot on for the full gold GMTII, but there are some trusted sellers that are above your range. So it’s sort of like you’ve got the highest range for your DD36 and the lower range for the CHNR.

Given that, seems like cash should be going from you, not to you, and probably a decent amount. Whether it’s $13k or something less, may depend on condition. But I imagine from a grey dealer perspective neither might be an easy move—so go to make something on the transaction.

[TopSlice]

In terms of value I always make this assumption, right or wrong:

Cheapest Chrono24 price for very similar condition, age, box and papers etc. -10%
Do people think that’s ballpark for what to expect when selling/trading to a dealer?

[watchwatcher]

Well, here's the thing. There's no better way to get your feelings- and your checkbook- hurt then by selling or trading a watch.

There's what we perceive to be "market value" and what somebody will pay you for a watch. If you're looking at Chrono 24, you're not seeing market value, you're seeing a bunch of listings that are all priced similarly. Look, I know this sounds harsh, but, to be honest, most of them are flat out ridiculous. It doesn't matter if you see 100 listings that all say a 36mm DD is worth 40-ish k or not, if nobody will pay you that. I mean, reality is harsh.

If you want market value, put it up for sale at that number and see who bites.

[Bmats]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

So what is market value and who determines it? If 100+ listings on chrono24 are all within $2k of each other, I would say that’s a pretty safe bet for “Market value”

Sure, that’s fine. You asked for thoughts, people offered them. You can tell the dealer that he needs to give you money your way, and you can enjoy your DD36.

Most folks here don’t consider Chrono24 market value, because one has no idea what the sold prices are. You can use as a starting point, but looking at what trusted sellers are asking is a much better way of seeing what selling price is or generally is if you’re looking at a trade.

Again, you asked, people answered—understand you don’t like the answers. Sorry about that, and hope you find someone who will make the trade for you.

[MazzaBL]

I understand that. The trusted sellers price is in line with Chrono24 median price for the watch, so I don’t see why you feel chrono24 is not a valid source for values. So it’s valid for 1 watch value, but not for another? I’m very curious what my Daydate with a retail price of $48,200, and a median Chrono24 price of $47k is valued at. Is the 126715chnr justifiably $13k more?

[/I]

Originally Posted by Bmats

Sure, that’s fine. You asked for thoughts, people offered them. You can tell the dealer that he needs to give you money your way, and you can enjoy your DD36.

Most folks here don’t consider Chrono24 market value, because one has no idea what the sold prices are. You can use as a starting point, but looking at what trusted sellers are asking is a much better way of seeing what selling price is or generally is if you’re looking at a trade.

Again, you asked, people answered—understand you don’t like the answers. Sorry about that, and hope you find someone who will make the trade for you.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

This is my whole point. How are market values determined? Seems any retailer can pull a random number and call it “Market value”.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

This is my whole point. How are market values determined? Seems any retailer can pull a random number and call it “Market value”. Who determines market value? I use Chrono24 as a reference and typically look for median value of all listings. Regardless there’s no way a watch with a median market value of ~$45k demands a $13k premium on top of a watch with a median market value of ~$47k

100%. Chrono is no exception. The best barometer for market value IMO is MODA, as it’s the most liquid and active market place. Sure, factor in a small dealers premium, but that is getting compressed by the day.

[Podmornica]

That's because your Daydate 36 can be had for less than a MSRP .. Now imagine realistically for how low one could sell on the market. Vast majority of ppl looking for a daydate are looking for a 40mm reference.

The watch market is dead and there's hardly any buyers for a 36mm day dates these days. They are popping all over USA in windows ready for immediate purchase (and probably a discount).

[MazzaBL]

36MM is the traditional DD size and is still very desirable. Sure, it can be had less than retail, only by $1000, which still has it priced HIGHER than the market price of the GMT. Neither watch is a hot seller and will sit, and for reference, there’s far more 126715chnr listed for sale than my configuration DD, seems the GMT is pretty stagnant and a tough sell, hence why dealers are sitting on them for a year or longer. They’re not SS hype pieces.

Originally Posted by Podmornica

That's because your Daydate 36 can be had for less than a MSRP .. Now imagine realistically for how low one could sell on the market. Vast majority of ppl looking for a daydate are looking for a 40mm reference.

The watch market is dead and there's hardly any buyers for a 36mm day dates these days. They are popping all over USA in windows ready for immediate purchase (and probably a discount).

[cloudken]

He's thinking he can sell your watch for $40k but it might have a floor of 36-37 if he has to sit on it for a while, hence 32 is his buy price on yours plus 13 cash.

Bear in mind you can always negotiate but my take is he probably doesnt want your watch hence the offer. I dont blame him really, it might sit for a while. DD36 RG is a ladies watch but that dial belongs more on the DD40. Its fair, unfortunately.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

So what is market value and who determines it? If 100+ listings on chrono24 are all within $2k of each other, I would say that’s a pretty safe bet for “Market value”

Market Value is the price that a willing buyer will pay for a product from a willing seller.

It is not a cast-in-stone number. It is also not what a Dealer will pay you since a Dealer has business costs to factor into any transaction.

You will seldom get "Market Value", which is a retail construct, from a Dealer buying a product he will need to sell to realize an expected profit.

[Mathematoxic]

He should take in your DD at around $36k and sell his GMT at around $43k+/-
I think $7k+/- from you to him will be fair. 13k is a rip off.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Well, here's the thing. There's no better way to get your feelings- and your checkbook- hurt then by selling or trading a watch.

There's what we perceive to be "market value" and what somebody will pay you for a watch. If you're looking at Chrono 24, you're not seeing market value, you're seeing a bunch of listings that are all priced similarly. Look, I know this sounds harsh, but, to be honest, most of them are flat out ridiculous. It doesn't matter if you see 100 listings that all say a 36mm DD is worth 40-ish k or not, if nobody will pay you that. I mean, reality is harsh.

If you want market value, put it up for sale at that number and see who bites.

Exactly this ^^^.

Sell your watch privately and buy the GMT. You’ll soon see what the delta is

[Swiftneck]

I normally can't see using chrono24 market price pricing when trading as a problem. Yes, prices are too high on chrono24, but that's goes for both watches when you trade, especially when the price on them are fairly even.

A daydate might be a harder sell than the gmt for most dealers, which would properly make an extra difference as though.

I would estimate the marketprice to be fairly even on the two watches, so 13k sound a lot. Half of that would be more appropriate under normal circumstances, in my opinion.

But if he calculates on the prices he would offer for a daydate today in a cash deal, and the prices he would put a gmt on sale for, 13k is properly right.

I would try to give him the offer you think is fair. And see what happens.

The best would be to try and find a private trade. that would probably save you a lot of money. Or just find a dealer who is a bit more interested in a daydate. Alternatively, sell the daydate your self, and make a lowball offer on the gmt at different dealers. There are lots of dealers interested in off-loading PM watches at the moment.

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[jb335]

Is this a gem set DayDate!!?!?? I can’t think of any 36mm DDs that have anywhere close to a $47k fair market value. That’s high even for a DD40.


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[ibzk]

OP show us your day date config if you want honest numbers

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

I’m in the process of trading my Daydate 128235, brand new full set, for a GMT 126715CHNR. Retail price for the Daydate is $48,200, retail for the GMT is $40,600. “Market values” for the Daydate are from $47k+, GMT seems to be $41k+. A trusted dealer on here is asking my daydate + $13k for his $45k GMT. Am I missing something? I understand needing to make a profit but asking for a watch with at least a $3k higher market value than what you’re trading + $13k cash on top seems insane to me.

I'd stop communicating with someone that is trying to do such a bad deal. Put your Day Date on consignment with a dealer and when it sells go and find a CHNR from a different trusted seller.

[rrschmieder]

Agreed with ronricks. If you're gung-ho on selling to a dealer, shop the DD around to a few other dealers to see they're in the same ballpark or not.

[cloudken]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

36MM is the traditional DD size and is still very desirable. Sure, it can be had less than retail, only by $1000, which still has it priced HIGHER than the market price of the GMT. Neither watch is a hot seller and will sit, and for reference, there’s far more 126715chnr listed for sale than my configuration DD, seems the GMT is pretty stagnant and a tough sell, hence why dealers are sitting on them for a year or longer. They’re not SS hype pieces.

The YG DD36 is desirable to some traditionalists but theyd be better off buying an older model.

Your RG DD36 config is rarer no doubt but the demand is way lower than the 126715CHNR. I bet most pple dont even know that dial exists on the DD36. Not that the demand is sky high on the CHNR, agree with you on that. But pre pandemic the CHNR might have sat in cases but was picked up in a few weeks maybe a month no discount. A DD36 diamonds would have sat in the case for several months and the AD would be happy to discount 20% on it because normal dial was in the high 20s resale.

I think RG overall had such a boost during pandemic compared to YG, WG and im still perplexed to why, something tells me that RG is a trend that may go away in years to come. But right now as we see RG models that went up, are coming back down just as fast.

[MazzaBL]

Ended up doing a deal for an unworn 2/23 dated 126715CHNR for my DD + $5k. Not in love with the deal, but I’m content, definitely a far cry from $13k. I just think if you can’t use a good resource like Chrono24 as reliable idea of market value (a place where essentially all grey dealers list their inventory), then how can you gauge perceived market value? Members have said “market value is what someone is willing to pay”….no it’s not, that’s individual value, a market consists of multiple people. What I’m willing to play for a watch may be miles away from what another person is willing to pay for the same watch. Market value should be judged by MSRP being the base, then supply and demand setting if it goes north or south from there. But if majority dealers on Chrono24 have a mid $40k watch listed within a few thousand of the other, doesn’t that show consistency in value enough to deem it the “market value”?

[cloudken]

Originally Posted by MazzaBL

Ended up doing a deal for an unworn 2/23 dated 126715CHNR for my DD + $5k. Not in love with the deal, but I’m content, definitely a far cry from $13k. I just think if you can’t use a good resource like Chrono24 as reliable idea of market value (a place where essentially all grey dealers list their inventory), then how can you gauge perceived market value? Members have said “market value is what someone is willing to pay”….no it’s not, that’s individual value, a market consists of multiple people. What I’m willing to play for a watch may be miles away from what another person is willing to pay for the same watch. Market value should be judged by MSRP being the base, then supply and demand setting if it goes north or south from there. But if majority dealers on Chrono24 have a mid $40k watch listed within a few thousand of the other, doesn’t that show consistency in value enough to deem it the “market value”?

Congrats, i think you did well and should be satisfied. CHNR is better watch to be in than RG DD36. Chrono is a lot of BS dealers shooting for the moon always, even not having inventory itself. Market value is as you said the aggregate of what pple are willing to pay.

[1665fan]

Retail for a 36mm dd 48k????