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6 April 2021, 11:46 PM | #31 | |
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6 April 2021, 11:46 PM | #32 |
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no one is dropping their prices, so however fast inventory is turning over is sufficient to suit them. With current interest rates it takes 4 months to eat 1% of capital invested in inventory, and their margins are probably fatter now than they've ever been. I don't see prices dropping any time soon.
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7 April 2021, 12:06 AM | #33 |
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Prices will only start to trickle when people stop buying.
The intersection of price vs demand vs supply has not been crossed yet... As price increases, demand decreases. As price Decreases, demand Increases. The demand for a $10M DaytonaC is ~0. The demand for a $0 DaytonaC is ~infinity. So where is the equilibrium? As prices increase, SUPPLY of 2nd hand DaytonaC increases. As prices decrease, SUPPLY of 2nd Hand DaytonaC decrease. Everyone is Selling their DaytonaC @ $10M No one is selling their DaytonaC @ $0. So where is the equilibrium? Currently that appears to be enough Sellers of their own Daytona at $35k to equal the buyers at $35k. At some point those willing to sell a product outpace those willing to buy. At that point, the only way to sell yours, before the other guys, is to be slightly lower. That's what AD's had to do for a long time. Discount. Be slightly lower than the AD down the street who wouldn't Discount as much to make the sale. We'll see what the future holds.
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IG@Construction_Time --- 1986 DD 18038 --- 1992 YM 16628 --- 2015 116600 SD4K --- SBDX001 MM300 --- 2009 Omega Ploprof White --- 2010 Omega LE LMPO |
7 April 2021, 12:18 AM | #34 | |
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I think this is more of a recent phenomenon where people have elevated Rolex (and other such luxury brands) as a thing of status, rather than a high quality and robust tool which is made to be used, appreciated and enjoyed. I suppose people will fall into two categories: ones who will wear and enjoy the watches and put them to the test as designed OR those who pamper, collect, show-off and then flip them as a commodity as to them, it's just a "thing". Regardless, each of mine are special and have meaning attached to them, and as such, will be passed on to my kids, some family and a couple of close friends. |
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7 April 2021, 12:33 AM | #35 |
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Here’s something to ponder. How on earth could gray prices decrease when they themselves are paying top dollar to the flippers? Their margins are not what many of you may think. I would even go as far as to say that their margins are almost identical or even smaller in many instances than they were in the “good old days.” Only a very poor business person would allow the market to drop and take a loss on the countless watches that they have personally paid top dollar for. Full disclosure, I have acquired pieces through ADs, Gray market dealers, and private sales, and believe they all serve an important role. The only thing that will make this go away is a massive and dramatic increase in production by Rolex that meets demand, which we all know will not happen.
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7 April 2021, 12:49 AM | #36 |
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Nothing will change, grey dealers have become institutionalized into the system.
Even if the market dips, the demand will just float them back up. |
7 April 2021, 01:00 AM | #37 | |
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Rolex must be the only thing you've ever dealt with that had a bubble... or a spike in demand that wasn't met with a spike in supply. This is my 6th experience with a hobby / passion that's seen a giant hype of demand... For items still in production, there's usually a point where people don't NEED any more of the item and decide that they're done spending money on it for now. I see that approaching. You look at supply as a current production number only, I look at supply as what's coming today, and what's available from the past 60 years of Rolex production.... Many people want a "Sub" but not everyone wants the SAME sub. Technically a 116610 and a 126610 are different watches. But do you see yourself owning a 116610, 126610, 114060, 124060, 16610, 14060, 16800, 5513... etc. just to say you have one of each? or do they replace each other in the lineup based on your preferences? If you love the 5 digit cases, you may own a 16610. If you love acrylic crystals and no-date vintage, you'd go for a 5513. If you want a Ceramic date, you're likely not going to have a 116610 AND a 126610 in the collection as they're too similar and the $10k is better served branching out into something else. A GMT? a Datejust? even a Two-Tone Sub might be an option. The point is, that outside of a few very obsessive and wealthy collectors, most of us are going to spread our funds around to have variety. Even if the DaytonaC is "Discontinued" it will be replaced with another Daytona and maybe it's better, maybe it's not, but the average guy who wants a Daytona isn't going to spend $50k on the 2016 version and ANOTHER $50k on an almost identical 2021 version just because one is a 116500 and the other is a 126500.
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IG@Construction_Time --- 1986 DD 18038 --- 1992 YM 16628 --- 2015 116600 SD4K --- SBDX001 MM300 --- 2009 Omega Ploprof White --- 2010 Omega LE LMPO |
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7 April 2021, 01:05 AM | #38 | |
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I see what you did there. That’s a good one. Made the post worth the read.
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Just another WIS who loves to trade... |
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7 April 2021, 01:05 AM | #39 |
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7 April 2021, 01:22 AM | #40 | |
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1. The "bubble" to pop 2. Grey market dealers to get burnt via sell-off 3. Everyone dumping Rolex for other brands 4. Rolex supply to catch up to global demand 5. Ceramic coke GMT Maybe the last one will come true?
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7 April 2021, 02:16 AM | #41 | |
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people are throwing ridiculous money at ridiculous crap these days... |
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7 April 2021, 04:08 AM | #42 | |
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7 April 2021, 04:24 AM | #43 | |
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You know how to derail me I have that 16628. (Assuming a Typo on the 16528) Just for you Alan. From Friday.
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IG@Construction_Time --- 1986 DD 18038 --- 1992 YM 16628 --- 2015 116600 SD4K --- SBDX001 MM300 --- 2009 Omega Ploprof White --- 2010 Omega LE LMPO |
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7 April 2021, 04:29 AM | #44 | |
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Monetary supply is obscene, it shall flow into assets so long as it flows off the printers |
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7 April 2021, 04:34 AM | #45 |
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7 April 2021, 04:36 AM | #46 |
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Yeah, I agree with this.... sad.
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IG@Construction_Time --- 1986 DD 18038 --- 1992 YM 16628 --- 2015 116600 SD4K --- SBDX001 MM300 --- 2009 Omega Ploprof White --- 2010 Omega LE LMPO |
7 April 2021, 06:02 AM | #47 | |
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7 April 2021, 06:29 AM | #48 |
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How many SS Daytonas can I get with my DOGE?!
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7 April 2021, 06:42 AM | #49 |
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If there ever was an increase in inventory (I doubt there will be) China is waiting....heck they may (by themselves) keep driving prices up.
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