2022 New Releases - Timelines, Waitlists, etc.

[PartyRoss]

I have had great luck with a few local AD's the past two years, and have built a small, but respectable collection during this time. I am extremely excited to see some of the new 2022 releases in the metal, and there are several pieces that I really want. I don't want to seem greedy, but I definitely want to let my AD's know that I am interested in these new models. Looking for input on two thoughts/questions:

First, I was wondering if anyone has seen these on the ground yet, or better yet, has actually taken delivery of one. I know it takes Rolex over a year to build each watch from start-to-finish, but I would imagine production for the new 2022 releases started sometime last year.

Also, regarding the wait lists, since some of these are all-new (left-handed GMT for example), is it safe to anticipate shorter lists of interest, or do you all think that is a moot mentality? It would make practical sense that the new lefty GMT would be easier to get than let's say a Pepsi GMT, but I am not sure if that translates to reality.

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts...

[afmars]

I would say that it doesn’t really make a difference how long a model has been out. Demand is high for everything, and ADs will offer the most coveted models to their best customers, regardless of if they’ve had enough time to explicitly express interest in it.

As for the lefty GMT, I wouldn’t be surprised if they produce 1 for every 15 Pepsis. I suspect it will be in the same hard-to-get tier as the meteorite GMT.

[Cigars&Watches]

As for your first question. I would think it would take many months for them to start trickling in especially with any volume.

As far as your second question. I spoke to 2 ADs and they said the requests for the lefty has been unreal, 80-100 deep. I would imagine the whales have first crack. Who knows how many any AD might receive in a year. This will be one of my questions next time I pop in again…

Having said that I would tell your ADs you are interested. You never know… I don’t think it makes you look greedy.

[Lew Archer]

The Rolex boutique in Century City, Los Angeles (which is operated by Geary's an AD) had only exhibition pieces on display, when I visited last week. That is, they had exhibition pieces ONLY...but not of the new releases. The sales associate didn't think they'd see any until summer.

By contrast, the Tudor boutique across the way had exhibition pieces of their new releases, but also predicted summer before the new models became available.

The AD I usually work with made the same prediction...summer.

So, time will tell...

[king4aday]

I developed a decent relationship with an AD that I got invited to a Rolex event for next month. I hope they will showcase the new models and get a chance to put in an order for those.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by PartyRoss

I have had great luck with a few local AD's the past two years, and have built a small, but respectable collection during this time. I am extremely excited to see some of the new 2022 releases in the metal, and there are several pieces that I really want. I don't want to seem greedy, but I definitely want to let my AD's know that I am interested in these new models. Looking for input on two thoughts/questions:

First, I was wondering if anyone has seen these on the ground yet, or better yet, has actually taken delivery of one. I know it takes Rolex over a year to build each watch from start-to-finish, but I would imagine production for the new 2022 releases started sometime last year.

Also, regarding the wait lists, since some of these are all-new (left-handed GMT for example), is it safe to anticipate shorter lists of interest, or do you all think that is a moot mentality? It would make practical sense that the new lefty GMT would be easier to get than let's say a Pepsi GMT, but I am not sure if that translates to reality.

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts...

What new models and if you think it takes a year to make any Rolex watch then you are vastly mistaken. Today to those who think that mechanical watches are produced by hundreds of little elves, restlessly filing, smoothing, grinding, polishing watch parts. And that they are made by grey-haired little old watchmakers, sitting bent at their tables for countless hours, somewhere in the Swiss mountains afraid they would be vastly mistaken. Sure there is still a small percentage with the hands on approach but look at the figures 850000- 900000 unit watches a year at time over 1000000 units a year . And once you have the design for cases, movements etc the robots can churn then out by the thousands. But as only the bare uncased movement are still tested at the COSC to get the chronometer certification, no winding rotor module,dial, date wheel, now these could be added to the movement to be finished by hand later. This was a past much advertised Rolex quote it takes 12 months to make a Rolex oyster this is what advertisement tries to sell us, but IMHO its light years away from reality and just marketing.{marketing today IMHO is mostly 90% bull and 10%fact}.

IMHO in today's, watch production world its now primarily an issue of engineers, computer techs, and metallurgists, various technicians, and specially trained workers. Once you have the design and tooling for vast production,then you can make them by the many thousands. And as the parts are robot machine made, in theory they should be all the same much more easy to get a first time pass rate at COSC, than a movement thats completely hand made, too many variables with a completely hand made movement and just think of the huge extra time cost. IMHO the traditional watchmaking part is all but now the very last thing in modern day mass watch production today. And then only when the movements are fully assembled in case and adjusted and finally checked possibly 100s at a time again on timing machine before packed and shipped world wide.

Quote from a past respected watch magazine.

Rolex launches its large-scale construction the goal of the new Rolex building project is to contain the entire watch movement making process to one building. Most of the parts distribution and much of the movement manufacturing process is totally automated by robotics.

[Politiceaux]

Owner of a local AD told me he thought late summer would be when new releases would start arriving.

[JRell]

Left handed GMT won’t be easy to get, but only because they won’t make as much. They are getting a really negative response online. Will be for collectors of GMTs primarily and sit on someone’s dressers instead of left handed people to wear as intended.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by Cigars&Watches

As for your first question. I would think it would take many months for them to start trickling in especially with any volume.

As far as your second question. I spoke to 2 ADs and they said the requests for the lefty has been unreal, 80-100 deep. I would imagine the whales have first crack. Who knows how many any AD might receive in a year. This will be one of my questions next time I pop in again…

Having said that I would tell your ADs you are interested. You never know… I don’t think it makes you look greedy.

If that is true, simple math tells me that normal people like myself will never get one at an AD. Rolex makes 1 million watches a year? Can I be entitled and guess that half of them go to America? That’s 500,000 for 50 states, that means only 10,000 per state. My state has 10 dealers? That’s only 1000 per dealer. Half of those are Lady‘s watches, so only 500 men’s watches per dealer. Half of those are dangerous. 250 left. That number still has to be divided among air kings, submariner’s, GMT‘s, and the rest of the watches besides DJ.

[bangkoktokyoseoul]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

If that is true, simple math tells me that normal people like myself will never get one at an AD. Rolex makes 1 million watches a year? Can I be entitled and guess that half of them go to America? That’s 500,000 for 50 states, that means only 10,000 per state. My state has 10 dealers? That’s only 1000 per dealer. Half of those are Lady‘s watches, so only 500 men’s watches per dealer. Half of those are dangerous. 250 left. That number still has to be divided among air kings, submariner’s, GMT‘s, and the rest of the watches besides DJ.

Why would half go to America? What a strange thing to say. More than likely they would go to SE Asia as that's where the demand / money is these days.

We've all seen the recent comments on Chinese watch investments.

[PartyRoss]

Originally Posted by padi56

What new models and if you think it takes a year to make any Rolex watch then you are vastly mistaken. Today to those who think that mechanical watches are produced by hundreds of little elves, restlessly filing, smoothing, grinding, polishing watch parts. And that they are made by grey-haired little old watchmakers, sitting bent at their tables for countless hours, somewhere in the Swiss mountains afraid they would be vastly mistaken. Sure there is still a small percentage with the hands on approach but look at the figures 850000- 900000 unit watches a year at time over 1000000 units a year . And once you have the design for cases, movements etc the robots can churn then out by the thousands. But as only the bare uncased movement are still tested at the COSC to get the chronometer certification, no winding rotor module,dial, date wheel, now these could be added to the movement to be finished by hand later. This was a past much advertised Rolex quote it takes 12 months to make a Rolex oyster this is what advertisement tries to sell us, but IMHO its light years away from reality and just marketing.{marketing today IMHO is mostly 90% bull and 10%fact}.

IMHO in today's, watch production world its now primarily an issue of engineers, computer techs, and metallurgists, various technicians, and specially trained workers. Once you have the design and tooling for vast production,then you can make them by the many thousands. And as the parts are robot machine made, in theory they should be all the same much more easy to get a first time pass rate at COSC, than a movement thats completely hand made, too many variables with a completely hand made movement and just think of the huge extra time cost. IMHO the traditional watchmaking part is all but now the very last thing in modern day mass watch production today. And then only when the movements are fully assembled in case and adjusted and finally checked possibly 100s at a time again on timing machine before packed and shipped world wide.

Quote from a past respected watch magazine.

Rolex launches its large-scale construction the goal of the new Rolex building project is to contain the entire watch movement making process to one building. Most of the parts distribution and much of the movement manufacturing process is totally automated by robotics.

That's disappointing to hear - I guess I have been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid (my SA just echoed the 1.5 year per watch sentiment as recently as this past Saturday) :

At any rate, thanks for the input, and from everyone else as well! Hopefully the summer timeframe is accurate - I really want to see the lefty GMT and some of the new green dial DJ41 configurations in person! Hoping to snag at least one as well - will be interesting to see how many of the green dial DJ41's they produce compared to the other dials.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by bangkoktokyoseoul

Why would half go to America? What a strange thing to say. More than likely they would go to SE Asia as that's where the demand / money is these days.

We've all seen the recent comments on Chinese watch investments.

Absolutely right. Europe, Asia, Middle East and all oil rich places, plus Australia and Canada.
My guess-20% US and going lower.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by padi56

What new models and if you think it takes a year to make any Rolex watch then you are vastly mistaken. Today to those who think that mechanical watches are produced by hundreds of little elves, restlessly filing, smoothing, grinding, polishing watch parts. And that they are made by grey-haired little old watchmakers, sitting bent at their tables for countless hours, somewhere in the Swiss mountains afraid they would be vastly mistaken. Sure there is still a small percentage with the hands on approach but look at the figures 850000- 900000 unit watches a year at time over 1000000 units a year . And once you have the design for cases, movements etc the robots can churn then out by the thousands. But as only the bare uncased movement are still tested at the COSC to get the chronometer certification, no winding rotor module,dial, date wheel, now these could be added to the movement to be finished by hand later. This was a past much advertised Rolex quote it takes 12 months to make a Rolex oyster this is what advertisement tries to sell us, but IMHO its light years away from reality and just marketing.{marketing today IMHO is mostly 90% bull and 10%fact}.

IMHO in today's, watch production world its now primarily an issue of engineers, computer techs, and metallurgists, various technicians, and specially trained workers. Once you have the design and tooling for vast production,then you can make them by the many thousands. And as the parts are robot machine made, in theory they should be all the same much more easy to get a first time pass rate at COSC, than a movement thats completely hand made, too many variables with a completely hand made movement and just think of the huge extra time cost. IMHO the traditional watchmaking part is all but now the very last thing in modern day mass watch production today. And then only when the movements are fully assembled in case and adjusted and finally checked possibly 100s at a time again on timing machine before packed and shipped world wide.

Quote from a past respected watch magazine.

Rolex launches its large-scale construction the goal of the new Rolex building project is to contain the entire watch movement making process to one building. Most of the parts distribution and much of the movement manufacturing process is totally automated by robotics.

I agree padi, marketing today is nonsensical. However, there are ways to justify any statements made. For instance, let’s look at raw materials, steel for instance, if you count from the day the iron ore is mined, shipped, smelted and amalgamated with alloys to make the steel used in a Rolex case, then you’re probably pretty correct with that 12 month window… the same goes for any other part if you merely trace back to the raw materials needed/used.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I agree padi, marketing today is nonsensical. However, there are ways to justify any statements made. For instance, let’s look at raw materials, steel for instance, if you count from the day the iron ore is mined, shipped, smelted and amalgamated with alloys to make the steel used in a Rolex case, then you’re probably pretty correct with that 12 month window… the same goes for any other part if you merely trace back to the raw materials needed/used.

Much like saying how long is a piece of string but today marketing often baffles brains, which Rolex and many other brands are real expert's at.

[PartyRoss]

Update from another thread - looks like the exhibition pieces have started rolling in!

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=851201

[Calatrava r]

Oris release of the new titanium pilot at WW22 is already at ADs. Bought the grey dial version yesterday. No reason Rolex cannot ship new releases sooner than late summer/fall each year.

[ninjin]

In previous years, my AD starts getting new models around June.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by bangkoktokyoseoul

Why would half go to America? What a strange thing to say. More than likely they would go to SE Asia as that's where the demand / money is these days.

We've all seen the recent comments on Chinese watch investments.

I was making an entitled guess, and also because it would make my point more rigorous. I do think we get a fair share though, but yes, less than half.
Also. It makes the math easier lol.