Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[casadecamporolex]

Originally Posted by njlam

I am waiting for that platinum DD40 too. Lots of them on Chrono24 for $10k to 40K over MSRP...

I’ll wait.
I’ve bought many, many Rolex watches over the last 5 decades. Never purchased a new Rolex from anyone other than the owner of an AD.


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[Plansb]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

I'm speaking more of people who are not so much "in the know" like us.

There are plenty. As I've mentioned on a thread elsewhere, many people see something and buy it.

I agree. I have a friend that is “into watches” and has a few Rolex and others but doesn’t trust that any gray dealer is legit. He has bought omegas at msrp that can be had with a nice discount easily because he thinks he’ll get a fake. He’d much prefer buy a cpo from ad than ever “risk it” with a gray dealer. So there is def a market.


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[robertengel]

I am shocked by how many people seem to think there is no downturn or that there is no softening when this has been going on for quite some time. Naturally I am referring to grey prices, retail prices have not yet softened. At least not widely for the brand. It's not subjective at this point. It is just numbers. Tried to trade in a few pieces to trade up and the prices quoted were laughable, none of the dealers want any stock at all, inventory is sitting for too long while prices keep slipping

[Wingman244]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

PS: If you know someone in the auto repo industry, may i suggest you ask them.....

Hahaha... I am looking for car for my wife and there is a beautiful Genesis G70 at my local dealer with 1,900 miles. I'm thinking - who trades in a car with 1,900 miles? I think you gave me the answer.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Wingman244

Hahaha... I am looking for car for my wife and there is a beautiful Genesis G70 at my local dealer with 1,900 miles. I'm thinking - who trades in a car with 1,900 miles? I think you gave me the answer.

It is possible the car was a loaner or demo

[Bladeshot]

My AD reached out last Christmas with a PM watch. I bought it because I wanted it… that was a market indicator. PM softens early.

AP reached out to me yesterday.

Things are soft. Yes, high demand models are still hot. Most watches are softening and I see a lot of continued “bag holding.” It will continue to trend down, back to more realistic average levels, imo. I don’t have any vested interest in prices. My collection is stable and it’s not a speculative collection. I own and wear what I like. Fortunate to be able to do so.


Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

I see a lot of continued “bag holding.”

This isn't crypto, this is watch collecting. Nobody here is "bag holding" anything.

You have your reasons for buying/selling/trading watches, don't label other people with that too just because we own things.

[BillA]

bag holding?

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by BillA

bag holding?

LOL. I wondered if I was too vague. I see lots of Rolexes priced at points where I know they won’t sell. Prices are dropping. Whether it’s private owners like me or dealers, there is a lot of wishful thinking when setting asking price. It’s a buyers market, overall.

“Bag holding” = Folks who bought in too high are holding and holding and hoping to lose as little as possible. I certainly took a hit selling some of mine, last year. Glad I got them sold, then.

One example is a nice sub listed on TRF. I made a decent offer last fall. Only a few hundred apart. Seller decided to hold out for more money. Across the next 6 months, things have worsened and he will be forced to sell for less now than I offered back then. That scenario is the definition of “bag holding”.


Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

This isn't crypto, this is watch collecting. Nobody here is "bag holding" anything.

You have your reasons for buying/selling/trading watches, don't label other people with that too just because we own things.

Fair enough.


Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by BillA

I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?

Yes, demand had slow down and that is a good thing for watch collectors.

I have been eyeing a Rolex two tone yellow gold at Far East plaza and it is very tempting. B&P full set but I feel like there still room for prices to be lower

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Yep, and they will still continue to all be sold, even the models that people think won't, will.

Maybe. Maybe not

Just a few years ago you could walk into an AD and shelves were stocked with Rolexes for sale. I remember walking into an AD in st Thomas in 2016 and they had 5 Subs in the case plus 2 hulks. I tried one sub on and the SA immediately offered a 5% discount on it just to try and make a sale. I was the only tourist in the store and I politely declined

What we are seeing now has not been the case forever and only death and taxes are guaranteed

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

My AD reached out last Christmas with a PM watch. I bought it because I wanted it… that was a market indicator. PM softens early.

AP reached out to me yesterday.

Things are soft. Yes, high demand models are still hot. Most watches are softening and I see a lot of continued “bag holding.” It will continue to trend down, back to more realistic average levels, imo. I don’t have any vested interest in prices. My collection is stable and it’s not a speculative collection. I own and wear what I like. Fortunate to be able to do so.


Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

Was shown this a week or two ago. Absolutely could have bought it on the spot. Things are certainly softening on PM.


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[Ferrari-F430]

Another thing I've noticed is that all of the "big" youtube watch channels that featured buying/selling rolexes and other high end watches have pretty much dropped off the radar/slowed with video production because views have greatly diminished.

I used to watch CRM on a regular basis and still kind of do, last night I looked at the overall views for their videos and confirmed that they (and a few others I checked) aren't getting the clicks/interest anymore.

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

Was shown this a week or two ago. Absolutely could have bought it on the spot. Things are certainly softening on PM.


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I do like that reference! cheers.


Just another WIS who loves to trade.
@bladeandwatch1 on IG

[nikolan]

I lost quite a bit on the last 3 precious metal rolex I sold and they took time to move so I would say yes it did slow down.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

Another thing I've noticed is that all of the "big" youtube watch channels that featured buying/selling rolexes and other high end watches have pretty much dropped off the radar/slowed with video production because views have greatly diminished.

I used to watch CRM on a regular basis and still kind of do, last night I looked at the overall views for their videos and confirmed that they (and a few others I checked) aren't getting the clicks/interest anymore.

True, True, however, there are a few of the youtube dealers who are saying the following:

We should all go back to our AD’s now, not a phone call, but an in store visit to let our AD know we are still interested in a few pieces. They are saying our success rate should be much higher than past and probably very good.
Why?
They claim that grey market dealers are not buying from the back door of AD’s anymore. The watch market, they claim is dead and the grey’s are not stocking. So therefore more watches for us regular people coming in the front door. Now they are not saying that all AD’s were selling out the back door but lots of them. They “claim” that the AD has a 40% profit on the watch. In other words a $10,000 msrp piece costs the AD $6,000. Now when they were selling out the back door to the grey’s, the grey’s did not pay msrp, but thousands more. So as an example, the $10K watch cost the grey guys $14,000 and then the grey’s marked them up to us for $18,000 as an example or the most they could get. So you can see the incentive for the AD to sell the watch to the grey market rather than the retail client. Not only does the AD in the above example make $4,000 but also an additional profit from what the grey’s bought the watch for. Now that the grey guys are not knocking at the back door anymore, the AD is now servicing the people coming in the front door. It goes to figure. A few months ago, without any purchase history, my AD who I have been frequenting sold me the Sub LV. There will of course be hard to get pieces which include the Pepsi, SS Daytona and others.

[enjoythemusic]

by the numbers....

June 2024 was not a positive month for Swiss watch exports, impacted by two fewer working days and a more significant decline in Asian markets, with the notable exception of Japan. Exports amounted to 2.3 billion francs, a fall of 7.2% compared with June 2023. Six months into the year, the sector has shipped the equivalent of 12.9 billion francs abroad, representing a 3.3% reduction compared with the first half of last year.

more info and PDFs with data at


https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=954019

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Yeh I agree, they are priced really high here in the UK too. I've questioned who are buying these, if at anyone at all?

Until it clicked

While these may not be flying off the shelves, my AD told me those purchases absolutely *do* go towards your allocation "prospects". So, while you might pay overs on an Explorer 2 or whatever it may be, it may well eventually put you in a better position to be allocated more higher demand pieces. In the short term, yes you will probably be a tad out of pocket, but the program will eventually, over time, allow you to trade in and out of watches as you wish, along with obtain other pieces at a retail level too, so perhaps their plan is looking a little further ahead in time.

You can't do that with any grey market dealer. Granted, the other thought is that you could just go grey for the high-demand piece and have done with it, however some people may much rather buy CPO from their AD, as it removes any questions over authenticity and other dodgy goings on.

Put it this way, if they reduced their prices to the more realistic market prices, I believe they would trade many more watches. I, for one, if I were in the market, would MUCH prefer to buy CPO from my AD instead of running the gauntlet with a grey dealer.

Totally agree. The strategy is sound. The average person doesn’t really understand the grey market and buying directly from Rolex makes more sense.


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[Car32]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

Another thing I've noticed is that all of the "big" youtube watch channels that featured buying/selling rolexes and other high end watches have pretty much dropped off the radar/slowed with video production because views have greatly diminished.

I used to watch CRM on a regular basis and still kind of do, last night I looked at the overall views for their videos and confirmed that they (and a few others I checked) aren't getting the clicks/interest anymore.

I've noticed the same thing on TRF. during the height of the bubble, there was a flood of posts and activity, so posts didnt say on the front page long. Now posts seem to stay on the front page of TRF much longer, and they're not all talking about pricing!

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Car32

I've noticed the same thing on TRF. during the height of the bubble, there was a flood of posts and activity, so posts didnt say on the front page long. Now posts seem to stay on the front page of TRF much longer, and they're not all talking about pricing!

People working from home, bored, killing time


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[Neil McCauley]

Just been to my AD to pick up the new magazine, so I thought I'd interrogate him.

Bottom line is, yes, the overall market is softening a little, but not by a major amount. They still have tonnes of people registered for watches, and it's essentially just a case of more phone calls now as the number of people rejecting allocations has picked up a little. Usually though no matter what watch, they find someone to buy it within a normal space of time, and for others, a lot of people being called are overjoyed. Some PM pieces sit for a little longer than they were a couple of years ago, but eventually, they find a home for themselves with someone, either by someone who's been eyeing it up for a while, or even occasionally just a walk-in. He also mentioned, there has been an uptick of their higher net-worth clients buying PM pieces on finance too, interestingly.

He said the market is now showing its hand where the true collectors and buyers are rising to the surface and getting calls for what they want. The number of people buying for the so-called "wrong" reasons is now vastly reduced, also - those people now stand out like a sore thumb more than they ever did before.

Walk-in buys are a lot more common in recent months, with a bunch of sales of random "non-allocation" pieces still being sold very regularly, and watches are still being collected by customers daily. My SA continues to be surprised to see that people still just walk in and buy an Omega there and then, and it's more common that you think.

For them, from an AD perspective, it's business as usual, just with a slight overall downturn of around 2-3% on the year so far.

From the horses mouth.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Just been to my AD to pick up the new magazine, so I thought I'd interrogate him.

Bottom line is, yes, the overall market is softening a little, but not by a major amount. They still have tonnes of people registered for watches, and it's essentially just a case of more phone calls now as the number of people rejecting allocations has picked up a little. Usually though no matter what watch, they find someone to buy it within a normal space of time, and for others, a lot of people being called are overjoyed. Some PM pieces sit for a little longer than they were a couple of years ago, but eventually, they find a home for themselves with someone, either by someone who's been eyeing it up for a while, or even occasionally just a walk-in. He also mentioned, there has been an uptick of their higher net-worth clients buying PM pieces on finance too, interestingly.

He said the market is now showing its hand where the true collectors and buyers are rising to the surface and getting calls for what they want. The number of people buying for the so-called "wrong" reasons is now vastly reduced, also - those people now stand out like a sore thumb more than they ever did before.

Walk-in buys are a lot more common in recent months, with a bunch of sales of random "non-allocation" pieces still being sold very regularly, and watches are still being collected by customers daily. My SA continues to be surprised to see that people still just walk in and buy an Omega there and then, and it's more common that you think.

For them, from an AD perspective, it's business as usual, just with a slight overall downturn of around 2-3% on the year so far.

From the horses mouth.

Did you inquire about his back door sales?

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by BillA

Did you inquire about his back door sales?

Hahaha

I've spoken to him about this before. He's openly stated to me that while he can't really talk for smaller, independent stores, but he knows that happens occasionally. He mentioned it is mostly something made up by embittered individuals who think the world owes them something, and come up with old wives tales to make them feel better about the situation, and that it's mostly bollocks. Grey dealers are not welcome in the store, and if Rolex UK management knew about it happening, they would come down on them like a tonne of bricks, along with misconduct grievances from their own employers.

And I tend to agree. I don't believe for a minute that the majority of ADs are backdooring high-demand pieces out of the back door to grey market dealers. People just like to think they do.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by BillA

Did you inquire about his back door sales?

Do AD's sell doors too?

How novel...

[BillA]

front, back and side-doors

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Just been to my AD to pick up the new magazine, so I thought I'd interrogate him.

Bottom line is, yes, the overall market is softening a little, but not by a major amount. They still have tonnes of people registered for watches, and it's essentially just a case of more phone calls now as the number of people rejecting allocations has picked up a little. Usually though no matter what watch, they find someone to buy it within a normal space of time, and for others, a lot of people being called are overjoyed. Some PM pieces sit for a little longer than they were a couple of years ago, but eventually, they find a home for themselves with someone, either by someone who's been eyeing it up for a while, or even occasionally just a walk-in. He also mentioned, there has been an uptick of their higher net-worth clients buying PM pieces on finance too, interestingly.

He said the market is now showing its hand where the true collectors and buyers are rising to the surface and getting calls for what they want. The number of people buying for the so-called "wrong" reasons is now vastly reduced, also - those people now stand out like a sore thumb more than they ever did before.

Walk-in buys are a lot more common in recent months, with a bunch of sales of random "non-allocation" pieces still being sold very regularly, and watches are still being collected by customers daily. My SA continues to be surprised to see that people still just walk in and buy an Omega there and then, and it's more common that you think.

For them, from an AD perspective, it's business as usual, just with a slight overall downturn of around 2-3% on the year so far.

From the horses mouth.

I guess the big question, is ‘if’ or ‘when’ will ‘the list’ run out as those have been serviced with watches are content with what they have and as rolex ramps up production or pieces return closer to RRP on secondary market.

Guess its just a numbers game with Supply V Demand.

Rolex will have an interesting job on their hands judging the supply as more new and secondary pieces come onto the market whilst at the same time the hype train dies down.

[BBRAYS]

Yes.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by BBRAYS

Yes.

Such an insight! Thank you for your contribution!

Originally Posted by Talon84

I guess the big question, is ‘if’ or ‘when’ will ‘the list’ run out as those have been serviced with watches are content with what they have and as rolex ramps up production or pieces return closer to RRP on secondary market.

Guess its just a numbers game with Supply V Demand.

Rolex will have an interesting job on their hands judging the supply as more new and secondary pieces come onto the market whilst at the same time the hype train dies down.

I think the "hype" train (I hate that word) has already left the station a good while ago now.

My SA mentioned that right now, it really doesn't matter because they have lists of 500+ people for certain watches and they're still taking registrations down constantly, even now. He also added it's been nice to be now able to ring people who have been registered for rather a long time, and their responses have been interesting, some are delighted, others have already bought on the secondary market and others just plain say no.

However, I did say to him that it's ironic that the people who have been on the "list" the longest are the last ones to get the call when times are a touch harder, to which he laughed a little awkwardly. This suggests that things probably aren't all roses, and I imagine their bosses are coming down harder on them. Which, to be honest, is a good thing. They need to learn how to actually sell now, whereas before, they may as well have been taking orders at McDonalds, no selling involved, in the traditional sense at least.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by BillA

front, back and side-doors

Doors-R-Us