Observing the Global Market Impact on Rolex Horology

[NAUI1982]

Waking up across the world this morning, it’s clear that we’re witnessing a significant market selloff. The recent stock market declines and the looming threats of both global and U.S. recessions are poised to have a profound impact on Rolex horology.

Interestingly, there seems to be an uptick in 'Got the call' posts lately. This observation aligns with current research indicating that as economic conditions worsen, the availability of Rolex watches increases. During times of financial uncertainty, luxury watch owners often liquidate assets, leading to a rise in the secondary market supply of Rolex watches.

Recent data suggests that since the market downturn began in 2022, prices for Rolex watches in the secondary market have fallen significantly, while inventory levels have risen. For example, from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, Rolex inventory on secondary market platforms increased by 8%. Despite this increase in availability, Rolex watches continue to trade at premiums relative to their retail prices, although the margins have been narrowing.

This could very well be an indicator that we are heading back to normal, and very quickly. The economic turbulence might signal a return to normalcy in the luxury watch market, and this shift could happen sooner than we expect.

It's a fascinating time for horology enthusiasts to observe and discuss these trends. If you're seeing more 'Got the call' posts, it might be indicative of the changing dynamics in Rolex availability and demand due to the economic climate.

[ukbbc]

Well, I got offered a full gold 126715 GMT passing through Heathrow a few weeks back, plus the RG Skydweller were also on the table.

I’d be impressed if the Pepsi GMT was available walk-in…

My APROC 26315 and APROOC 26420 have both dropped like a stone in the secondary market. Let’s see if AP will offer me a Jumbo…


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[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

Recent data suggests that since the market downturn began in 2022, prices for Rolex watches in the secondary market have fallen significantly

So far as 2022 goes it was more of a reset after a paradoxical spike which could not last. Measuring trends from 2018 onwards would give a better picture.

[JRell]

Who knows - markets go up and down. Markets have been so up we were bound for a correction. I only buy retail anyways, so MSRP is the only Rolex indicator for me.

[Krash]

Clearly, if we have a deep economic recession, and the markets continue to drop like a rock, then that’s going to impact the luxury watch market.

But obviously that’s not we want. The world is much better off if the financial markets rebound and we somehow avoid a recession. If Rolex watches remain difficult to acquire, then so be it. What matters most is a better economy for everyone.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Krash

Clearly, if we have a deep economic recession, and the markets continue to drop like a rock, then that’s going to impact the luxury watch market.

But obviously that’s not we want. The world is much better off if the financial markets rebound and we somehow avoid a recession. If Rolex watches remain difficult to acquire, then so be it. What matters most is a better economy for everyone.


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This. A healthy economy over the value of trinkets any day. But let’s not forget that these things don’t move in lockstep, and aren’t as correlated as we think. Just think about watches trading under trail pre 2019 vs where they are now. I think we’ll more or less revert to the historical trendline (sans covid) regardless of where the economy ends up. Of course there will be fluctuations, and a sharp downturn would affect all luxury good pricing

[WatchEater666]

A huge chunk of our portfolio is down YoY in revenue. It's all privately held consumer businesses. Consumer is very soft this year. Lenders still extremely skittish.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by ukbbc

Well, I got offered a full gold 126715 GMT passing through Heathrow a few weeks back, plus the RG Skydweller were also on the table.

I’d be impressed if the Pepsi GMT was available walk-in…

My APROC 26315 and APROOC 26420 have both dropped like a stone in the secondary market. Let’s see if AP will offer me a Jumbo…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Haha funnily enough we may have overlapped.

I actually dropped in, guy was nice enough and I basically made a flippant comment around "just looking, I know you guys don't have anything for sale anyway". And he mentioned ACTUALLY we have a GMT and several sky dwellers for sale (I didn't ask what GMT but I'm sure it was a full PM or TT).

Agree - AP has been sinking faster than the titanic these days

[majidessa]

It is too soon to tell, these days no one can really know what will happen in the next few hours. The market is down and here in the middle east the situation is critical...

[Calatrava r]

I too think this is a healthy correction in what has been a very hot stock market. At some point, soon we should see more and more DDs and DJs in the cases as the hype for the overall brand subsides somewhat. SS sports models will be in a demand exceeding supply for the foreseeable future.

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by messikens

Haha funnily enough we may have overlapped.

I actually dropped in, guy was nice enough and I basically made a flippant comment around "just looking, I know you guys don't have anything for sale anyway". And he mentioned ACTUALLY we have a GMT and several sky dwellers for sale (I didn't ask what GMT but I'm sure it was a full PM or TT).

Agree - AP has been sinking faster than the titanic these days

And likley the sky-dwellers were also PM.

[enjoythemusic]

Normal is great.

But, to be fair, more people are aware of / aspire to have a fine mechanical timepiece. So, imho, this means more demand than 'historical norms' in quantity shipped.

[NAUI1982]

Originally Posted by Krash

Clearly, if we have a deep economic recession, and the markets continue to drop like a rock, then that’s going to impact the luxury watch market.

But obviously that’s not we want. The world is much better off if the financial markets rebound and we somehow avoid a recession. If Rolex watches remain difficult to acquire, then so be it. What matters most is a better economy for everyone.


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A nice soft landing would be great! I fear the Fed has once again acted too slowly to avoid a recession, just as they sat on their hands while inflation soared.

None of us want it, a nice economy with reasonable rates and geo political stability would be great! Lets see how this plays out from now through October!

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

A huge chunk of our portfolio is down YoY in revenue. It's all privately held consumer businesses. Consumer is very soft this year. Lenders still extremely skittish.

I agree, consumers will be very cautious with spending right now, and likely for the foreseeable future. Means people will really evaluate the kinds of purchases they make, and I don’t think luxury watches will be at the top of that list…

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Normal is great.

But, to be fair, more people are aware of / aspire to have a fine mechanical timepiece. So, imho, this means more demand than 'historical norms' in quantity shipped.

I’m not sure… I think I’m on the other side of this bet. Softening economy, people tightening up their belts in preparation. The wind is blowing at us in the face. Headwinds, not tailwinds.

[RichardBartlett]

Dead cat bounce?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

I’m not sure… I think I’m on the other side of this bet. Softening economy, people tightening up their belts in preparation. The wind is blowing at us in the face. Headwinds, not tailwinds.

100% agree yes sales qty will go down from the massive bubble peak. Headwinds are here, and the Fed likes that as we need it. 18% correction is normal.

Long Term: Overall demand in qty will be higher than historic norms once things settle down as compared to, say, 10 years ago. We've had a lot of newbies made aware / aspire to.... including more youth now seeking to be watchmakers.

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by JRell

Who knows - markets go up and down. Markets have been so up we were bound for a correction. I only buy retail anyways, so MSRP is the only Rolex indicator for me.

+1.