Is the return to normalcy imminent?

[Stan Cooper]

Originally Posted by brandrea

As long as demand is high, they’ll be difficult to get at an AD

It's really quite simple; Brian nails it.

[rgito]

Originally Posted by TheVision

I ended up buying the sub date again last year from a different AD (7 weeks wait and no purchase history). I still own it and just got on the waitlist for batman but my rep said they haven't received much gmt2 this year at all and said this one will take a while. I have my 50th coming up next year so she said she'll try her best

I am in the same situation. I put my name on the list 2 years ago with the AD closest (2hrs away) for a BLNR for me and a "Starbucks" for my son. Just got "the call" on Friday last for the LV. Son has decided to pass. My 60th bday is next week and no dice. Like you, my SA says she has seen 2 BLNR all year. Conversely LV are "no longer a rare occurrence" at her AD these last few months.

[blswan]

Am I the only one that thinks the hype is part of the cool factor? I like the exclusivity and “chase” of an AD sale. Even though I’ve been frustrated that after almost three years I had to go grey. It’s just part of the market with all things coveted. I paid well over for my 911 Targa GTS too, but it’s probably held value more than any of my other pricey cars.

[Goldmansockz]

Originally Posted by blswan

Am I the only one that thinks the hype is part of the cool factor? I like the exclusivity and “chase” of an AD sale. Even though I’ve been frustrated that after almost three years I had to go grey. It’s just part of the market with all things coveted. I paid well over for my 911 Targa GTS too, but it’s probably held value more than any of my other pricey cars.

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

[Zerouali]

Originally Posted by Goldmansockz

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

Let’s hope they become easy to get and drop in value then.

Then those of us that actually want the watch to wear and keep will get one and the hype monsters can move onto something else.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by Goldmansockz

I’m honestly with you. Probably wouldn’t care for the batgirl if it didn’t hold value well / was hard to get. Same reason why I don’t care for Grand Seikos or Omega as much as I used to.

Agree. One of the great things about a Rolex is that you can ease yourself into the purchase by reminding yourself that your net worth isn't really shifting. As you say, that can't be said about GS or Omega in general.

Meanwhile, those who treat issues like net worth with disdain have the grey market to fall back on.

[thesultan57]

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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[CH69]

I think new normalcy means watches are available at ADs (most models anyways)….but i think the days over discount at AD won’t come back

Grey market used to exist before the hype where u can save a few bucks (and not pay a premium) for the same watch without the AD experience cos the watch is from overseas or someone wanting to let go for a reason or slightly used. If it goes back to that, new normalcy (my definition) will come.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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I wonder if the widely reported millionaire exodus from the UK (pending changes to non-dom status / IH status) is already being reflected in sales of high end luxury goods?

That, of course, and broader economic uncertainty and downward pressure on disposable incomes (combined with the general uncertainty on future taxes)?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

In the UK, yes 100%. Between my brother and I we have picked up 3 x Submariner ‘Starbucks’ in the last 2 weeks. One of them was with zero spend history and delivered in 2 days.

They’ve got pretty much everything in stock ( maybe this was always the case ) so it’s just a matter of them wanting to make the sale.


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I call BS. As London is notorious for all the ADs sharing an internal system and usually one entry of interest at one place and that's it. They're certainly not selling your family with the same last name, 3 of the same watch in 2 weeks. Unless it was a super undesirable lady date just two tone model. Straight up, BS, calling it.

[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by EverCloserUnion

I wonder if the widely reported millionaire exodus from the UK (pending changes to non-dom status / IH status) is already being reflected in sales of high end luxury goods?

That, of course, and broader economic uncertainty and downward pressure on disposable incomes (combined with the general uncertainty on future taxes)?

I cannot comment with certainty on your first point however it certainly makes sense that this will have an impact. Many Rolex buyers, such as myself, are far from ‘millionaires’ however if these people are leaving then this would reduce pressure lower down the purchasing ‘food chain’ so to speak.

The general economic situation has a direct effect without question, however some brands can navigate this better than others, look at Hermes for example.


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[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by dmash

I call BS. As London is notorious for all the ADs sharing an internal system and usually one entry of interest at one place and that's it. They're certainly not selling your family with the same last name, 3 of the same watch in 2 weeks. Unless it was a super undesirable lady date just two tone model. Straight up, BS, calling it.

Unless within the same group (WoS for example) I have never heard, or seen any evidence or reason for ADs to share any information between each other. Why on earth would they? They are competitors who want to see more than the other.

For mine, one was from a large London AD and the other two were from a small local one who delivered 2 precisely because we are brothers and they wanted us to have a matching pair.

I was surprised by this, but they also had a room at the back with pretty much every single model ready for pickup , including the ‘puzzle day date’ which is meant to be one of the rarest watches Rolex produce.




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[Moondoggy]

Just visited 12 different countries, many people lining up waiting forever to buy nothing. It’s a sh*tshow on steroids, the brands class is diminishing imo, people just happy for selfies in the store. I bought a cracking Panerai 8 day manual great experience, love it.

Don’t get me wrong I love my Rolexes but I don’t want to look like a Insta flog.

Also wear what you want through Europe/Nordic countries no one gives a crap.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by thesultan57

Unless within the same group (WoS for example) I have never heard, or seen any evidence or reason for ADs to share any information between each other. Why on earth would they? They are competitors who want to see more than the other.

For mine, one was from a large London AD and the other two were from a small local one who delivered 2 precisely because we are brothers and they wanted us to have a matching pair.

I was surprised by this, but they also had a room at the back with pretty much every single model ready for pickup , including the ‘puzzle day date’ which is meant to be one of the rarest watches Rolex produce.




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You trying on a watch proves absolutely nothing and tons of ADs have watches like that for vvvvvip. I’ve tried on an eye of the tiger Daytona in the back, doesn’t mean I had a chance to get it. And especially not that you got THREE SS Rolex within 14 days in LONDON of all places.

But again, whatever you want to claim on the forum. Carry on

[thesultan57]

Originally Posted by dmash

You trying on a watch proves absolutely nothing and tons of ADs have watches like that for vvvvvip. I’ve tried on an eye of the tiger Daytona in the back, doesn’t mean I had a chance to get it. And especially not that you got THREE SS Rolex within 14 days in LONDON of all places.

But again, whatever you want to claim on the forum. Carry on

That’s interesting, I assumed, perhaps wrongly that the ultra ‘rare’ models such as the puzzle dial / eye of tiger etc were , well, ultra rare, and their total numbers were measured in 2 / low 3 digits. But you say that there are tons of ADs with them so perhaps nothing is as it seems now days….

I spoke to the major London AD and they had never seen a puzzle dial and when I showed them the picture of one at our small out of town AD they were stunned.

Of course this model was not for sale, it was directly approved by Geneva for a high spending local client who hadn’t picked it up yet. In my opinion they shouldn’t be letting people try it on but I’m not going to complain lol

As stated above , ours were not all from London. Only one from a major AD. The other two were an out of town local AD, complete different relationship.

My experience is, as long as you don’t bother them regularly, when you actually seriously ask, then they deliver within 10days. That was the case for my Pepsi, Batman, Black sub etc

However I was very surprised at my brothers 2 day turnaround with zero relationship, however I guess it’s just down to timing and luck


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[ClintonM3]

Not sure what happened or if anything happened at all. A lot of YouTubers released videos on this exact topic of how prices "plummeted" "market collapsing" demand is decreasing, etc, in the last few days. Maybe they all had their own chat and decided to talk about the same thing.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by ClintonM3

Not sure what happened or if anything happened at all. A lot of YouTubers released videos on this exact topic of how prices "plummeted" "market collapsing" demand is decreasing, etc, in the last few days. Maybe they all had their own chat and decided to talk about the same thing.

I noticed that too. Knowing it’s all about getting views and not necessarily accuracy, I assume they each saw metrics that this topic was generating a high click rate.


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[IS2000]

I just talked to fellow enthusiast who is working at a large watch dealer in Bangkok (which happens to be a Rolex AD). I was just asking for a Tag Heuer Monaco green panda and a salmon GP Laureato. We had a good chat and he admired my watch. Then I asked how Rolex is doing since the business is quite slow nowadays. He said his dealer is getting way less watches from Rolex than before. So I think Rolex won’t make it too easy to get hot watches even as demand is shrinking.

[EverCloserUnion]

Originally Posted by IS2000

I just talked to fellow enthusiast who is working at a large watch dealer in Bangkok (which happens to be a Rolex AD). I was just asking for a Tag Heuer Monaco green panda and a salmon GP Laureato. We had a good chat and he admired my watch. Then I asked how Rolex is doing since the business is quite slow nowadays. He said his dealer is getting way less watches from Rolex than before. So I think Rolex won’t make it too easy to get hot watches even as demand is shrinking.

That line is really interesting.
I assumed that Rolex would have a contracted obligation to provide ADs with a given number of watches (given that investing in the development of a Rolex centre can't be cheap, and the dealers will want some idea of likely return on investment).
Is it seriously a case of 'take what comes and hope for the best'?