Interesting convo with my AD today…

[rolexjackson]

They told me that so far this year they have taken delivery of 4 White Stainless steel Daytona watches. This to me speaks volumes. I googled how many Rolex AD there are in the USA and I came up with 317 so that would mean only 1268 of these were delivered so far this year. I realize that there will be some dealers that get more than others but when they make over 1mm pieces a year you would think they would make more.


Life is short buy the watch-

[omar-rye]

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

[rolexjackson]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

Fair point Omar I wish I Was one of the 4 … i admire your ability to do math!


Life is short buy the watch-

[Mr. Superlative]

Very good explanation and number crunching breakdown.

I echo Jackson - life’s short: buy the watch.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

[ArtNouveau]

As you say, all dealers, in the US at least, are not created equal. In 2019, the year I got my 116500, my high volume AD told me they got 30, 15 of each dial.
If your AD is small they may be telling you the truth. Main point being you can’t determine how many of each piece an AD got based on a simple math equation. I think the continued thinning of ADs is also affecting allocations.

[Victor Cohen]

Here's an interesting study based on Chrono 24 data. Of course it's worth what it's worth because the figures are not official and there may be some bias.

But overall, on the basis of the assumptions made, the figures seem fairly consistent.

Daytona seems to be one of the most widely produced models because of its depth and variety.

The case study is there : https://quillandpad.com/2024/02/13/r...-rolex-make-2/


Screenshot 2024-11-14 at 09.44.02.png

[Rolexatlast]

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

[1William]

Maybe. I have a hard time believing what AD's say based on my personal experience.

[Victor Cohen]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

This is also what I tend to think.


Nevertheless, I just took a look at chrono24 and here are the totals for the 12XX series for Daytona, Submariner and GMT

Daytona : 2000

Submariner : 3055

GMT : 4218


All models taken together, there are more SS than PM obviously, except for the Daytona.


My personal thoughts lead me to think two things

Indeed Rolex produces more Daytona PM with risks of unsold, because the entry ticket is much higher but also because the demand is much more concentrated on the SS than the PM. However, the popularity of the Daytona could push a shift into a buyer's mind towards PM, whereas on the other models perhaps less.


The second point is that Daytona models, and more particularly SSs, are so difficult to obtain from ADs that there are fewer of them on the after/grey market. Buyers are also more likely to keep them as they are difficult to obtain.

All of this is pure speculation, but it wouldn't seem crazy to me if the quantity of Daytonas produced wasn't close to, or even equivalent to Sub.

[brandrea]

I always enjoy AD intel

[m j b]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I always enjoy AD intel

By intel you mean "intel" right? As in, rolling-your-eyes sarcastic?

I dunno. Do Canadians do sarcastic?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by m j b

By intel you mean "intel" right? As in, rolling-your-eyes sarcastic?

I dunno. Do Canadians do sarcastic?

Yes and yes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tricolore66]

There are hundred if not thousands of BNIB 116500’s for sale on any given day. Believe what you like but I’d be shocked if your AD doesn’t have a safe filled with new Daytonas.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

Short and sweet. Well done.

Originally Posted by rolexjackson

Fair point Omar I wish I Was one of the 4 … i admire your ability to do math!


Life is short buy the watch-

Me too

[worldofoyster]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

this is what we're talking about. post back by math and logic

[worldofoyster]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

Higher margin on the daytona due to its relatively high MSRP