The Next 3 Years of AI: Why Even Experts Are Terrified

[Thug]

Originally Posted by Krash

Also, when it comes to office work, the easier the task, the easier it is to automate.

But what is the cost?

There's a lot of AI talk but less on how much it would actually cost and I'm not sure now or in the next 5 years the cost would justify replacing corporate office heads at most companies.

For context, I sat in on a RPA pitch back in 2019 where the vendor was trying to sell to Accounting department. The team at the time had a guy in India refresh ~30 files daily for the first two weeks of the month. It's literally just opening file, hitting a refresh in the excel add in, and maybe entering username/password if prompted. All logic based, no judgement. We were quoted $50-$60k for an unattended bot just for that one process. Any minor change after that would cost $ as well as annual maintenance costs. The guy in India was paid a fraction of $50k annually and can do more than just one process.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Thug

But what is the cost?

There's a lot of AI talk but less on how much it would actually cost and I'm not sure now or in the next 5 years the cost would justify replacing corporate office heads at most companies.

For context, I sat in on a RPA pitch back in 2019 where the vendor was trying to sell to Accounting department. The team at the time had a guy in India refresh ~30 files daily for the first two weeks of the month. It's literally just opening file, hitting a refresh in the excel add in, and maybe entering username/password if prompted. All logic based, no judgement. We were quoted $50-$60k for an unattended bot just for that one process. Any minor change after that would cost $ as well as annual maintenance costs. The guy in India was paid a fraction of $50k annually and can do more than just one process.

Cost is relative. Not all tasks are created equal.

If there is a task performed a million times a year and it takes one minute per execution, then a $60,000 programming job could eliminate 694 days or 16,656 hours worth of work each year. If you assume the people performing that task were making $15 an hour, then you’d save $250,000 annually, or $1,000,000 after 4 years.

In many cases, you can’t cost justify paying for automation. But depending on the importance of the task from a business perspective, we would have likely been asked to automate that task anyway for risk mitigation purposes.


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[Thug]

Lol now you're bringing up hypotheticals that doesn't play out in real life.

At the end of the day you can cost justify because that's what companies have always done and will always do.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Thug

Lol now you're bringing up hypotheticals that doesn't play out in real life.

At the end of the day you can cost justify because that's what companies have always done and will always do.

Why do you say hypotheticals? Lots of programming initiatives saved millions of dollars. This is true in virtually every large company on the planet.

Do you think that programming tasks haven’t saved companies millions and even billions of dollars.

And you’re the one that suggested you can’t cost justify spending $60,000 to replace someone doing something manually in India.


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[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by subtona

Respectfully disagree.


The premise that companies are required to pursue the benefits of ai, while it may be true, is also a convenient cover for the coming elimination of human jobs.

I am on Maui with a friend who is working on a AI customer service interface with the expectation that it will reduce his lower level staff by up to 75% within the next 12- 24 months. He is fully aware that the next step from the people above him will be to phase him out in 1-2 years after that.

[L_S_SHOE]

It’s painfully obvious that no one is ready for this. The loss of tens or hundreds of millions of jobs across the world will reshape society. Power is already highly concentrated, but I can imagine this being a means to consolidate it further. With widespread unemployment, society will either collapse or the people will be reliant on government like never before.


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[chrissimons]

I read a nice paper from Cal Newport and like some sentences saying that AI still can not deal correctly with my mailbox, so it's not ready yet and will be very difficult to get to that point of performance :)

It may be like other stuff with computers : while it performs some tasks in place of the humans, we will also need so many humans to maintain complicated AI and bugs that it will create more trouble than sweating and doing the job "manually".

[Krash]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

I am on Maui with a friend who is working on a AI customer service interface with the expectation that it will reduce his lower level staff by up to 75% within the next 12- 24 months. He is fully aware that the next step from the people above him will be to phase him out in 1-2 years after that.

I signed an NDA, so I can’t talk about anything we developed at my most recent company. I know we’re anonymous here on TRF, but I’m not taking any chances.

Anyway, for another company I worked at in the 90s, we developed a credit decision system that automatically approved or declined people applying for a lease. It wiped out a department of 250 people. There was no more need for that many credit analysts. They kept about 20 (approximately) for the credit applications that fell in a gray area. The “gray area” credit applications were automatically routed to credit analysts that survived the cuts.

It wasn’t AI. Far from it. It was based on the credit score and a bunch of other criteria.

However, AI is the next wave. Unfortunately, job cuts are going to be much broader and for a set of people that previously had nothing to worry about.

I’m just glad I’m retired now…



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[enjoythemusic]

As an artistic type, AI is helping unleash my visions, and yes saving time / effort / costs too. So, how about a fun cartoon....

Mr. and Ms. Swissey. Be sure to WATCH as they travel though TIME... ...and SPACE too! Swissey needs your help! Join them on our journey through time.

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__1d.jpg

[subtona]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

As an artistic type, AI is helping unleash my visions, and yes saving time / effort / costs too. So, how about a fun cartoon....

Mr. and Ms. Swissey. Be sure to WATCH as they travel though TIME... ...and SPACE too! Swissey needs your help! Join them on our journey through time.

Attachment 1500867

Attachment 1500868

Panerai unfinished base movements.

[TC94]

I’ve just done a deep dive into the world of Google Veo 3 videos.

I’m less worried about AI taking over than a lot of people in this thread. I’m excited to apply AI in work and robotics for automation at work and home.

But I’m now very worried about how many humans are going to use AI to manipulate, mislead and control others. Today’s Influencers are already sketchy, recommending products they may have not even used or tested. Now we have the rise of completely fake AI influencers pushing product recommendations on unsuspecting viewers.

Take that principle and apply it to fake news, fake science, fake politics…the list goes on.

AI is going to be used in many negative ways by bad people. Time to raise cynicism to record levels. Be careful what you choose to believe. AI may change the world. People using AI may end up controlling it.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by TC94

But I’m now very worried about how many humans are going to use AI to manipulate, mislead and control others. Today’s Influencers are already sketchy, recommending products they may have not even used or tested. Now we have the rise of completely fake AI influencers pushing product recommendations on unsuspecting viewers.

Take that principle and apply it to fake news, fake science, fake politics…the list goes on.

We've had all this for decades without AI.

[TC94]

Originally Posted by Krash

We've had all this for decades without AI.

I agree, but the scale has now dramatically expanded. Anyone can create an entire realistic news cast from their couch. Complete with reporters, footage, expert backup commentary and more. Even fake debates on the facts and events. All for $100/month. And it’s impossible to distinguish from the real thing now.

That’s a level we didn’t have before.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by TC94

I agree, but the scale has now dramatically expanded. Anyone can create an entire realistic news cast from their couch. Complete with reporters, footage, expert backup commentary and more. Even fake debates on the facts and events. All for $100/month. And it’s impossible to distinguish from the real thing now.

That’s a level we didn’t have before.

Hopefully, people will begin questioning everything they see, hear, and watch going forward.

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by Krash

Hopefully, people will begin questioning everything they see, hear, and watch going forward.

That doesn't seem to be the case today in many places without AI so I'm not holding my breath.

[TC94]

Originally Posted by Krash

Hopefully, people will begin questioning everything they see, hear, and watch going forward.

Originally Posted by FTX I

That doesn't seem to be the case today in many places without AI so I'm not holding my breath.

Really having to educate my elderly father on all of this. Meanwhile my adult kids keep showing me new scams that are almost unbelievable. Latest is using AI to analyze live streamers’ and YouTubers’ screen share videos and guess their passwords based on hand movements and keyboard clicks. Not applicable to most of us, but dang that’s wild.

[Krash]

Someone just texted me this meme. Lol





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[L_S_SHOE]

Originally Posted by Krash

Someone just texted me this meme. Lol





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It’s fitting. I think this one is too:




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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Krash

Hopefully, people will begin questioning everything they see, hear, and watch going forward.

Yup, as what was at one time 'State-level' high quality fakery is now available to everyone.


Great news, he says sarcastically, as the music BUSINESS is already making deals with 'AI companies' to supply sounds that create what humans perceive of as a song. This way it's not the major music label fakery (wink wink nudge nudge), it's the 'legal' AI music company.....

The film industry knows......

[TC94]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Yup, as what was at one time 'State-level' high quality fakery is now available to everyone.


The film industry knows......

I’m enjoying some of the AI comedy videos. Got hooked on big foot and Yeti “vlogs”

But on a more serious note, share this link with anyone in your lives who may fall prey to AI scams. Really is worth a look.

https://youtu.be/FERa1AI2EK8?si=iFeIFomtHzFf-StQ

[Andad]

Is this a scam link?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Andad

Is this a scam link?

The vid is to help (old) people learn about various scams and fakery. GREAT link. Even my dad, who is quite sharp, alllllllmost fell for one of the scams.

With India, Africa, and other places not policing their widely-known scammers, and obviously other countries like the EU, USA, UK, etc approve of these scams to go on, all we can do as CONsumers is to hopefully stem the tide of scammers ability to scam. Videos like the one posted above showcasing modern AI helps.

Too bad India, Africa, and other places refuse to stop scammers. Worse still, the irresponsible and unaccountable Federal / International banking system also refuses to stop the widely-known scamming problems.

Thankfully, there are good guy hackers who do far more than a country's banking officials or police system, which obviously support the bad scammers. Smartly, he also uses AI, and is a great guy btw if you ever meet him.

[Speedbird-1]

I don't believe anything I see, hear or read in the media these days and the question I ask myself is, with the expansion of AI use, are things going to get better or worse?

[Krash]

Some of those AI generated Star Wars and Star Trek mini-videos are pretty cool. Honestly, I think they have potential to be better than the originals. Not today, but maybe a few years from now.

I’ll provide links later.


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[L_S_SHOE]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

I don't believe anything I see, hear or read in the media these days and the question I ask myself is, with the expansion of AI use, are things going to get better or worse?

Same.

Since humanity lacks the altruistic leadership necessary to make AI a force for good, you can just about count on things getting worse.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

I don't believe anything I see, hear or read in the media these days and the question I ask myself is, with the expansion of AI use, are things going to get better or worse?

These days?
We've had much worse -

False reporting and sensationalism were common in the media channels (printed press) during the 18th and 19th centuries, particularly in the United States.

Partisan newspapers prioritizing advocacy over impartial facts.

Also, penny papers and consolidation in media markets led to inaccurate sensationalized stories.

Yellow journalism - need I say more?

Most people had no alternatives for accurate reporting.

Originally Posted by L_S_SHOE

Same.
Since humanity lacks the altruistic leadership necessary to make AI a force for good, you can just about count on things getting worse.

This is true since humans coded AI and AI is simply learning from data presented by humans.

Altruistic, organized political leadership never reigned in the past so it has little chance in the future (except in pockets, jungles or forests with no outside contact).


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by 77T

These days?
We've had much worse -

False reporting and sensationalism were common in the media channels (printed press) during the 18th and 19th centuries, particularly in the United States.

Partisan newspapers prioritizing advocacy over impartial facts.

Also, penny papers and consolidation in media markets led to inaccurate sensationalized stories.

Yellow journalism - need I say more?

Most people had no alternatives for accurate reporting.





This is true since humans coded AI and AI is simply learning from data presented by humans.

Altruistic, organized political leadership never reigned in the past so it has little chance in the future (except in pockets jungles or forests with no outside contact).


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I grew up in the 70s. I remember my mom telling me to never trust anything you read in newspapers or see on TV. I also remember my dad chiming in and saying, “well, you could trust sports scores and stock quotes.” I remember it like it was yesterday. I would like to say my parents were ahead of their time. But I’m sure many of our parents felt that way.


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[codecow]

For sure, then again our parents lived through the entire Cold War, and may have even participated in it as well as Vietnam. Lots of propaganda, lies from the government, coverups, etc… no small wonder they’re in the don’t believe the press or the government.

[FTX I]

Professional journalism is very important. I don't know about others but it is to me.

[TC94]

Originally Posted by Krash

I grew up in the 70s. I remember my mom telling me to never trust anything you read in newspapers or see on TV. I also remember my dad chiming in and saying, “well, you could trust sports scores and stock quotes.” I remember it like it was yesterday. I would like to say my parents were ahead of their time. But I’m sure many of our parents felt that way.


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Now you can’t trust those. Create a fake YouTube newscast, report incorrect sports, financials, breaking news and more. Some will do it to create chaos, others will do it and throw in a link to help you take advantage of the fake market swings, sports betting or more.

I’m excited about AI for business and robotics for automation. Heck, even a personal robot in the home could be helpful in a medical emergency for the elderly. Instead of “I’ve fallen and can’t get up” you can have “robot, I’ve fallen, come help me up and call emergency services.” We’re almost there.

But it’s also going to be dangerous for those who may be unaware of its potential for misuse.