Talking Stocks 2.0

[Krash]

Originally Posted by brandrea

An interesting ruling but I doubt it’ll change any of the narrative, which is what seems to move the markets these days

I didn't expect it to drive the markets that much when I found out the court order isn't as sweeping as the headlines indicate.

It doesn't prevent the President from imposing tariffs by sector. For example, steel, cars, chips, wine, and even wrist watches if they so desire. So the court order doesn't change anything for German and Japanese cars, for example. And that's just one example...

[Krash]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Take half would be my advice.

Although no idea where you got in at, but it’s never a bad idea to crystallize some profit

I’m holding. Not selling. I’m in it for the long haul. 10 year horizon.


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Krash

I’m holding. Not selling. I’m in it for the long haul. 10 year horizon.


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L

I thought I was the only one in this thread with a buy and hold approach

Best of luck with the stock


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[FLGatorM5]

Originally Posted by Krash

I’m holding. Not selling. I’m in it for the long haul. 10 year horizon.


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Not picking on you, but what happened to selling at 140 because it was too large of a position?

[huncho]

personally i see no reason to invest in nvidia or any chips with this current administration. they've already been dead money for over a year and now are some of the most politically sensitive stocks. software has been making the strongest recoveries and/or new highs weekly and is a lot less stressful to hold for now

i guess if your timeframe is 10+ years it doesn't matter but to me the risk/reward for nvidia is just not there in the short term (2-4 years). on top of that it's also somehow an extremely volatile stock even at 3T mcap so it's kinda lose/lose to me

[superdog]

Originally Posted by brandrea

L

I thought I was the only one in this thread with a buy and hold approach

Best of luck with the stock


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Me too, dog.

At this stage, I don’t sell. Only buy. And slowly. I’m very protective over my loot.

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by brandrea

L

I thought I was the only one in this thread with a buy and hold approach

Best of luck with the stock


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you sir, are not alone

[chrissimons]

Originally Posted by brandrea

L

I thought I was the only one in this thread with a buy and hold approach

Best of luck with the stock


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I, too, do the same. Preparing my son’s studies.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by brandrea

L

I thought I was the only one in this thread with a buy and hold approach

Best of luck with the stock


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The majority of investing success for the vast majority of people comes from temperament. Not knowledge or ability, and certainly not stock picking.

That said, part of temperament is understanding one’s own risk tolerance and (sometimes) adjusting a portfolio to reflect that tolerance. This is also very much context-dependent. Sound temperament for Buffett might be add or drop businesses as his view on their situation (core business thesis) changes. It might mean, given his massive implicit cash holding (direct or indirect) that the balance of risks suggests deferring the “buy” part… and that “buy and hold” applies to individual stocks until it doesn’t. There are plenty of companies that were great for “buy and hold” until their business was no longer competitive - and would have been disastrous as investments depending on the time frame (holding “too long”). Remember, stocks are merely stakes in real businesses - and many (most) real businesses and their prospects change over time.

Every day there is an implicit decision to “buy” at the market price you hold a stock (in a company) for. There are frictions (like lack of new info, taxes, trading costs etc) but to hold a stock is akin to buying it, with all those caveats. Most people when engaging in “buy and hold” are likely best off doing so through a low cost index etf rather than individual stocks. This way those implicit “buy vs sell” decisions are being made for you. That reduces the burden on the typical investor to asset allocation, which you can “usually” either leave to your advisor or assess at less frequent intervals.

None of the above is investment advice, just some thoughts on “buy and hold” as a concept.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by FLGatorM5

Not picking on you, but what happened to selling at 140 because it was too large of a position?

Yeah, I know. I changed my mind. NVDA unintentionally became my largest holding because of how much it skyrocketed. That is true. So I was thinking maybe I should pair it back for risk mitigation.

But I changed my mind. I’m holding it.


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

The majority of investing success for the vast majority of people comes from temperament. Not knowledge or ability, and certainly not stock picking.

That said, part of temperament is understanding one’s own risk tolerance and (sometimes) adjusting a portfolio to reflect that tolerance. This is also very much context-dependent. Sound temperament for Buffett might be add or drop businesses as his view on their situation (core business thesis) changes. It might mean, given his massive implicit cash holding (direct or indirect) that the balance of risks suggests deferring the “buy” part… and that “buy and hold” applies to individual stocks until it doesn’t. There are plenty of companies that were great for “buy and hold” until their business was no longer competitive - and would have been disastrous as investments depending on the time frame (holding “too long”). Remember, stocks are merely stakes in real businesses - and many (most) real businesses and their prospects change over time.

Every day there is an implicit decision to “buy” at the market price you hold a stock (in a company) for. There are frictions (like lack of new info, taxes, trading costs etc) but to hold a stock is akin to buying it, with all those caveats. Most people when engaging in “buy and hold” are likely best off doing so through a low cost index etf rather than individual stocks. This way those implicit “buy vs sell” decisions are being made for you. That reduces the burden on the typical investor to asset allocation, which you can “usually” either leave to your advisor or assess at less frequent intervals.

None of the above is investment advice, just some thoughts on “buy and hold” as a concept.

Thanks, so far it’s working lol


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[FLGatorM5]

Originally Posted by Krash

Yeah, I know. I changed my mind. NVDA unintentionally became my largest holding because of how much it skyrocketed. That is true. So I was thinking maybe I should pair it back for risk mitigation.

But I changed my mind. I’m holding it.


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10-4. Good luck and manage your risk (however you choose). I’m def. jealous of those that have been able to capitalize on that run.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Krash

Yeah, I know. I changed my mind. NVDA unintentionally became my largest holding because of how much it skyrocketed. That is true. So I was thinking maybe I should pair it back for risk mitigation.

But I changed my mind. I’m holding it.


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Why not write OTM covered calls? Take the premium for the heightened implied volatility.

1500 shares with a mv of ~$200k covered call for Jan 2026 $160 is paying $11 or $16k and does not factor in the additional 20% upside should you get called at $160. Of which you can always roll to a further dated option. Or write a 2027 LEAP covered call so the income is taxed at LT cap gains. Literally free money. Leaving significant amount of money on the table if you guys are not using options on your underlying securities. Same with writing CSPs, you get paid to own a stock you like at a lower price. You can then wheel the income from the covered calls and CSPs to lower your cost basis. I have done this with several positions that now have a close to zero CB or negative.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Why not write OTM covered calls? Take the premium for the heightened implied volatility.

1500 shares with a mv of ~$200k covered call for Jan 2026 $160 is paying $11 or $16k and does not factor in the additional 20% upside should you get called at $160. Of which you can always roll to a further dated option. Or write a 2027 LEAP covered call so the income is taxed at LT cap gains. Literally free money. Leaving significant amount of money on the table if you guys are not using options on your underlying securities. Same with writing CSPs, you get paid to own a stock you like at a lower price. You can then wheel the income from the covered calls and CSPs to lower your cost basis. I have done this with several positions that now have a close to zero CB or negative.

Good advice I need to heed.

How are you assessing IOVA with recent events? I'm considering a shift into more bio and this one is still on my list.

[1st amg]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Why not write OTM covered calls? Take the premium for the heightened implied volatility.

1500 shares with a mv of ~$200k covered call for Jan 2026 $160 is paying $11 or $16k and does not factor in the additional 20% upside should you get called at $160. Of which you can always roll to a further dated option. Or write a 2027 LEAP covered call so the income is taxed at LT cap gains. Literally free money. Leaving significant amount of money on the table if you guys are not using options on your underlying securities. Same with writing CSPs, you get paid to own a stock you like at a lower price. You can then wheel the income from the covered calls and CSPs to lower your cost basis. I have done this with several positions that now have a close to zero CB or negative.

Holy smokes, Brian, you are so well-versed in this game. I have read this 20 times and it's still a challenge for me to understand lol. Can I give you all my money and you do this for me!!

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Why not write OTM covered calls? Take the premium for the heightened implied volatility.

1500 shares with a mv of ~$200k covered call for Jan 2026 $160 is paying $11 or $16k and does not factor in the additional 20% upside should you get called at $160. Of which you can always roll to a further dated option. Or write a 2027 LEAP covered call so the income is taxed at LT cap gains. Literally free money. Leaving significant amount of money on the table if you guys are not using options on your underlying securities. Same with writing CSPs, you get paid to own a stock you like at a lower price. You can then wheel the income from the covered calls and CSPs to lower your cost basis. I have done this with several positions that now have a close to zero CB or negative.

Great overview!

Only two comments as I expect most here aren’t current or former pro investors:

1) While there is virtually “risk free” income generated in terms of relative losses, you do “risk” giving away upside. I utilize covered calls when I don’t want to take an aggressive directional position AND expect lower realized vol than the market implies.

2) For those here who are not pros, please make sure to understand sizing and ensuring your position isn’t naked (fully or partially) unless you understand the consequences.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Great overview!

Only two comments as I expect most here aren’t current or former pro investors:

1) While there is virtually “risk free” income generated in terms of relative losses, you do “risk” giving away upside. I utilize covered calls when I don’t want to take an aggressive directional position AND expect lower realized vol than the market implies.

2) For those here who are not pros, please make sure to understand sizing and ensuring your position isn’t naked (fully or partially) unless you understand the consequences.

Yeah, I'd rather hold all the shares I have rather than sell half the shares to write OTM calls. Plus, I have all my money in a brokerage account managed by a financial advisor. I'm not even sure they'd do that, and I'm not asking...

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 1st amg

Holy smokes, Brian, you are so well-versed in this game. I have read this 20 times and it's still a challenge for me to understand lol. Can I give you all my money and you do this for me!!

brother, way over my head too. I really want to understand all that.

but not sure that will ever happen.

[JasoninDenver]

My brain hurts so I will just flush a few thousand down the toilet which I am sure would be the same as me venturing into that realm.

[SDGT3]

Brian and Bravebold are on such a different level and appreciate all they bring to this thread as I "try" to learn so much from them. I don't understand it all but if I can pick up just 10% of what they're saying, I'm happy

[superdog]

I am thinking that it is now time to buy Tesla.

[albertf]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am thinking that it is now time to buy Tesla.

Musk is going wild on twitter. I wouldnt go in with too much size just yet.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am thinking that it is now time to buy Tesla.

good luck if you get in lol

i posted about it here in sept/oct when it was around 210 and i ended up riding it to 450+ (selling half in the 400s) and then round tripping the rest all the way back down before getting out and moving on. in hindsight that was one of the most obvious trump trades that everyone knew would undo itself pretty fast

i've always been super bullish on tesla but the stock is literally one of the biggest headaches i can think of precisely because of days like today, but they happen all the time because elon never shuts up. still think the guys a genius and love the company but outside of trades idk if i'll ever own the stock again. trades too much on whatever he says instead of fundamentals, which at the current point in time suck, so it's hard to tell what price is considered good "value". cybertaxi was a massive inflection point but that was back when everyone thought being buddies with trump would get him easier approvals for launches

[superdog]

Originally Posted by albertf

Musk is going wild on twitter. I wouldnt go in with too much size just yet.

Originally Posted by huncho

good luck if you get in lol

i posted about it here in sept/oct when it was around 210 and i ended up riding it to 450+ (selling half in the 400s) and then round tripping the rest all the way back down before getting out and moving on. in hindsight that was one of the most obvious trump trades that everyone knew would undo itself pretty fast

i've always been super bullish on tesla but the stock is literally one of the biggest headaches i can think of precisely because of days like today, but they happen all the time because elon never shuts up. still think the guys a genius and love the company but outside of trades idk if i'll ever own the stock again. trades too much on whatever he says instead of fundamentals, which at the current point in time suck, so it's hard to tell what price is considered good "value". cybertaxi was a massive inflection point but that was back when everyone thought being buddies with trump would get him easier approvals for launches

I didn’t do anything. It’s for the best. I’m not good with volatility.

[Krash]

My portfolio is actively managed by a financial advisor. He decides what to buy and sell for us. I do have input if I want but I just let him do his thing.

So anyway, he significantly increased the amount of our TSLA shares the day before the big blow-up. Not very good timing…That’s what owning TSLA stock is like. You never know when the next bomb will drop.


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[Maleg]

Originally Posted by huncho

good luck if you get in lol

i posted about it here in sept/oct when it was around 210 and i ended up riding it to 450+ (selling half in the 400s) and then round tripping the rest all the way back down before getting out and moving on. in hindsight that was one of the most obvious trump trades that everyone knew would undo itself pretty fast

i've always been super bullish on tesla but the stock is literally one of the biggest headaches i can think of precisely because of days like today, but they happen all the time because elon never shuts up. still think the guys a genius and love the company but outside of trades idk if i'll ever own the stock again. trades too much on whatever he says instead of fundamentals, which at the current point in time suck, so it's hard to tell what price is considered good "value". cybertaxi was a massive inflection point but that was back when everyone thought being buddies with trump would get him easier approvals for launches

I bought TSLA pre-covid and sold it a couple years ago at $355 because Elon was making me nervous. I prefer an investment to be somewhat predictable and TSLA value is based on the latest antics of its wildly unpredictable founder.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Maleg

I bought TSLA pre-covid and sold it a couple years ago at $355 because Elon was making me nervous. I prefer an investment to be somewhat predictable and TSLA value is based on the latest antics of its wildly unpredictable founder.

yeah peace is underrated, especially when so many stocks are just posting insane gains with little to no stress while tesla chops around on nonsense drama for years. even if it ends up being a generational company you have to factor in the opportunity cost of waiting for that to happen

[SDGT3]

I have nothing against TSLA stock per se, but the "volatility drag" of such up and down stock has a negative impact on total return.

[eanzenberg]

Originally Posted by Krash

Yeah, I'd rather hold all the shares I have rather than sell half the shares to write OTM calls. Plus, I have all my money in a brokerage account managed by a financial advisor. I'm not even sure they'd do that, and I'm not asking...

Yeah, you effectively cap your upside. $160 for NVDA is 10% from where it is today, timed to Jan 2026. The extrinsic value you get from “selling” the option is earned by holding the total downside risk over that time period. And, you cap your upside. Majority of stock returns happen during periods of significant rapid up-swings (obviously).

But if you can time the market, have an edge, and have bandwidth to babysit these then yeah, go for it 😉

[7sins]

Originally Posted by eanzenberg

Yeah, you effectively cap your upside. $160 for NVDA is 10% from where it is today, timed to Jan 2026. The extrinsic value you get from “selling” the option is earned by holding the total downside risk over that time period. And, you cap your upside. Majority of stock returns happen during periods of significant rapid up-swings (obviously).

But if you can time the market, have an edge, and have bandwidth to babysit these then yeah, go for it ��

Few points of clarification, I made that post on 6/2 when NVDA was $135, which represents 19% upside, you were paid $11 for that call netting $124 or respectively ~30% upside. The more volatile a stock, the higher the implied volatility and the more income you are paid, NVDA was only an example. As I already mentioned, should the stock rise above $160 close to expiry, you can roll it further out and to a higher strike, thus increasing the upside. When you roll a covered call, it immediately triggers a ST loss that can be immensely valuable going into yearend. NVDA is obviously an outlier but it is incredibly rare for a stock to move in a straight line higher, it will peak and trough through time and when it moves lower due to systemic market conditions you can always close your option at a profit while writing covered calls when valuations become stretched again. IE an investor with strong conviction, could have closed covered calls on NVDA during April for a substantial profit and then increased their allocation into NVDA at a lower price. Alas, hindsight is always 20/20 but the market follows repeatable patterns and during extreme volatility, retail always overreacts creating numerous opportunities that can be effectively hedged via options like writing CSPs.

This obviously does not work in the event of an ever elusive buyout, if you are concerned there is significant price appreciation prior to a major catalyst, you can take part of your income from the covered call and buy an OTM call that will appreciate at a significant multiple compared to the underlying security. There are many ways to navigate upside limitation.

It has nothing to do with "timing" the market nor "babysitting" options, you can win by being the house and selling options to degenerate gamblers. With that being said, there is nothing wrong with a buy and hold strategy, it certainly has been proven over time to be a profitable strategy and create multi-generational wealth.

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Good advice I need to heed.

How are you assessing IOVA with recent events? I'm considering a shift into more bio and this one is still on my list.

I 3X'd my position last month in the high 160s after the brutal Q1 miss. EV of only $400M is clearly dislocated from the market, with a $300M run this year and lung along with cervical data readout later this year will multiply the TAM by tenfold. The IP with over 220 patents is worth significantly more than where we stand today, welcome to early commercial stage biotech. The recent 5yr data release at ASCO was incredible for 3L Melanoma, I firmly believe it will be revolutionary in 2L. Anyways, I will post my thoughts and thesis on it this Sunday, would love your feedback and criticism after (along with anyone else in the medical field).

None of this is financial advice, just my .02 with change to give.