GMT Values - Modern vs Vintage

[bluemartinifan]

Hi All,
I want to share facts and open a value discussion regarding the intersection point for vintage and modern GMT market values. During the past 5 months I sold and bought the following GMTs via the forum (at the same price point): (NO this is not a how much will my watch be worth in 5 years post)
SOLD a full pkg 16710 (3185) in mint condition - circa 2007
BOUGHT a nearly full pkg 16750 in exc and original condition - circa 1985

Assume a vintage and modern GMT or Sub are in similar condition and with similar accessories - and assume the vintage reference is not ultra rare, such as a Red sub - when does the vintage value meet and possibly exceed the modern value?
What are the factors that would drive vintage and modern values to intersect? Demand and availability are certian factors.

Maybe this is only interesting to me - but wanted to share it.

[HL65]

The majority of vintage watches exceed the value of modern watches. Not sure I am following this thread. There are far too many variables with vintage watches
which vastly alter prices!!

[Frogman4me]

Excluding condition which is the ultimate determinant for the price of a vintage watch I have to go with the obvious and say availability and demand. Exclusivity is the reason I much prefer vintage and this is why I believe that modern Rolexes are not going to have the same value because rolex now produces over 800k watches per year.

[HL65]

Let me try to go a bit further with my previous post:

A 1962 2 line gilt Sub (closed chapter ring) with full accessories in mint condition: $20k +
A new Sub with full accessories cost:$6500

A 1963 GMT 1675 gilt PCG with full accessories in mint condition: $12k +
A new GMT with full accessories cost:$6500

There are just too many variables. Vintage--true vintage watches are far more expensive than modern examples. So to figure out a crossover is quite difficult.

[drtooth73]

I think the OP is interested in vintage as investment. I agree that vintage at the right price will only continue to increase in value, while brand new style GMT at dealer at $7K+ will be dropping, as seen on FS section at $5500 average with b/p

[Frogman4me]

Here is another thing to consider as natural occurrences to the watch, dial and hands seem to increase the value of a vintage significantly such as nice even patina and tropical dial variations. With the modern watches I don't believe the luminova will ever patina or the gloss dial to ever change colors so there will not be those rare examples of natural effects on the watch that vintage guys go crazy for. But only time will tell.

[HL65]

His questions were when do vintage and modern value intersect ? When does vintage exceed modern? And - What would drive that? Of course vintage is driven by supply and demand and the other obvious facts.

[Frogman4me]

Originally Posted by SteelerFan1965

His questions were when do vintage and modern value intersect ? When does vintage exceed modern? And - What would drive that? Of course vintage is driven by supply and demand and the other obvious facts.

Your right Ken, that is a hard question to answer. With the rolex price increase every year how could any recent model exceed the new modern price?

I guess he is referring to the price that was paid for the watch and when does that watch exceed the price that was paid. If this is the case then the price increase should slightly help the value as some might compare with the new rolex prices that continuously increase.

For me I look at Modern Rolexes to drop in value after purchase but never below a certain price point. I never thought that a modern rolex could ever exceed the price that was paid due to the list I mentioned before.

[mike]

Hey Russ,

It's a great question and one that has been the topic of discussion within the vintage community in the past.

I'm with those that think the answer is always a bit vague because factors such as condition, rarity, appeal, etc... always enter in.

As one collector told me one time, a piece bought new and worn till it becomes what collectors call vintage can be sold and the funds purchase a new version of the reference.

Sounds good, but again I've always thought that was a bit of a broad brush since so many other factors enter in.

As an example (and I know pricing on both can vary greatly), if you bought this new,



and you wore it everyday and serviced it on occassion you could sell it and buy this,



You did good.

You got your valuation back and had the honor of wearing a classic for decades.

But,......which might be the better valuation down the road?

We can never say what will happen in the future, but one represents a finite resource and the other ......

I think the same can be said for most vintage pieces with the understanding condition and what the collector views as desirable will always factor in.

[HL65]

Great shots Mike!!! And sounds words!

[Yazo]

Great advice in here!!!!

[bluemartinifan]

Great feedback. I was more interested to stimulate discussion - not as much looking for a finate answer.

Agreed - too many variables to model this and arrive at a defendable conclusion. Perhaps I just like the idea that a Rolex buyer can choose to pay approx the same money for a 3 year old GMT as he would for a 25 year old GMT - and most will choose the new one - but not me...

[Puffy]

cool stuff Russ, thanks for sharing man!

[darthmouse]

Interesting discussion. I agree that there seems to be a certain point at which Rolex began mass-producing enough that value is very unlikely to increase again. Therefore a 16610 is unlikely to appreciate like the 5513 has (disregarding things like the 1680 red).

Beautiful shot, Mike. Great condition!