SS sports models back to MSRP

[Rolexatlast]

Depends on how quickly MRP keeps rising. At some point, there must be a crossover with rising MRP and falling second hand values

[SS Oyster]

You do realize that you are asking to predict the future. If I could ask a future prediction, I think I’d ask something more meaningful.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JonnyOld Boy]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Good. I'm glad to see that a couple of wannabe grey dealers got wiped out of the game.

IMO it's not a change in the "desirability" of the brand; it's just an indication of the current economic situation. Previously we had people buying these watches who usually would not have been able to, and therefore demand increased exponentially. That demand has all but dried up, thanks to cost of living, inflation and interest rates.

Rolex's brand is one of the most powerful brands in the world; it doesn't get diminished in a matter of months just because some dodgy backstreet dealer decided to liquidate his stock that he couldn't afford to hold in the first place.

You post is so hilarious ... these are not "Wannabe" they are major indy ADs. The notion of a "powerful" brand is abstract nonsense. The fact in the real world, is that the shallow estate agents, car salesmen and traders who use to wear a trophy on their wrist are an almost extinct breed now. Left to the true watch enthusiasts, the brand will settle to where is belongs. A heritage draw for the buyers with nuanced knowledge. The ADs that ditched used watches from Rolex are still selling crate loads of watches .... just watches from other manufacturers.

The "couldn't afford to hold in the first place" is also a curious comment. What serious business holds dead stock, regardless of brand etc etc ... The reason they shed the stock is because they are smart , not tight-of-pocket.

[dubins930]

Yes this craziness will stop eventually... everything comes full circle. Unless someone can think of a brand that has been unattainable at retail for all of written history...

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dubins930

Yes this craziness will stop eventually... everything comes full circle. Unless someone can think of a brand that has been unattainable at retail for all of written history...

High end escorts is all I got.

[Moonwatcher]

Originally Posted by codecow

Seven deadly sins
Seven ways to win
Seven holy paths to hell and your trip begins
Seven downward slopes
Seven bloodied hopes
Seven are your burning fires…
Seven steel models under MSRP are your desires!

Up the irons!

[TickTockChuck]

I think it will slow down starting with the most and least expensive models. The SS models in the middle will have a bit more staying power. Nothing lasts forever and that's a good thing. Really, the display cases should have something for sale. I'll be glad when the frenzy/mania is over and ADs start to treat customers with respect again. Power to the customer! Cheers

[Moonwatcher]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Depends on if customer demand continues to remain high or goes even higher. The Rolex factories are supposes to come on line next year which will improve the current shortage of supply. To get Rolex's INSIDE the cases, ready to buy, a quick answer is not anytime soon. I'd predict at least 1-2 years before Rolex's were inside the cases. The certified pre-owned program will ease the supply pain and align buyers to pre-owned watches rather then brand new. Its all going to take time.

Rolex factory in Bulle is going to be fully operational by 2029. Recruitment of staff started beginning of 2024. An interim solution will be a production facility in La Maillarde in 2025 before moving to Bulle.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by JonnyOld Boy

You post is so hilarious ... these are not "Wannabe" they are major indy ADs. The notion of a "powerful" brand is abstract nonsense. The fact in the real world, is that the shallow estate agents, car salesmen and traders who use to wear a trophy on their wrist are an almost extinct breed now. Left to the true watch enthusiasts, the brand will settle to where is belongs. A heritage draw for the buyers with nuanced knowledge. The ADs that ditched used watches from Rolex are still selling crate loads of watches .... just watches from other manufacturers.

The "couldn't afford to hold in the first place" is also a curious comment. What serious business holds dead stock, regardless of brand etc etc ... The reason they shed the stock is because they are smart , not tight-of-pocket.

You said:

Originally Posted by JonnyOld Boy

I personally know two grey dealers who ditched their ENTIRE STOCK of used Rolex

Not, "major indy ADs" - are they grey dealers or ADs? These are two very different things. You're not an AD if you're only selling used Rolex and you dump it at the first sign of stress in the market.

My comment regarding the power of the brand was regarding this comment:

Originally Posted by JonnyOld Boy

But out in the real world, the mood is changing, and the "desirability" of the brand is no longer glued to the "aspirations" of many buyers.

Rolex has been an aspirational, powerful brand for decades, and will continue to be, regardless of what the secondary grey market does, or what the perception of Rolex is of a handful of grey dealers. If you don't think Rolex is a powerful brand, you should do some homework on their market share, in fact, I'll save you the hassle, it was 30.3% in 2023, a whopping 4.3 times bigger than the next largest brand, Cartier.

Lastly, the comment about "couldn't afford to hold in the first place" was related to these guys being the backpack grey dealers, likely playing with money they don't have, to trade things for penny flips to sap every last drop out of the market. The reason I say this is because all reputable and long-lasting, time-tested secondary dealers are sticking with Rolex in many forms in their stocks because that's what they specialise in, and they understand things like longevity in the market. They have the best relationships and buying power to still be profitable even in this market today.

[powersweets]

Likely to take a few years, if ever

[dubins930]

Originally Posted by GB-man

High end escorts is all I got.

[johnliley]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

After consulting the ancestors, the answer is a resounding yes. Three days from the day it happens, look to the stars and it shall be known to all. So let it be written. So let it be done.

so say we all...

[worldofoyster]

Yes for some models.

[BillA]

I do hope that the “exhibition” tags come off soon and the displays are loaded with watches again but I am not hopeful. 2 reasons. 1. AD’s will continue to hype the brand telling you of very low inventory. We cannot authenticate this. 2. Rolex keeps chopping off AD’s, this makes the remaining AD’s have a more exclusive product.

Rolex is an amazing marketing organization. They would not be building a $1B plant if this were not the case. They advertise big time. I get the WSJ daily and either there is an advertisement for their new offerings or the CPO project.

[Right]

Originally Posted by WWC

Will we sooner than later see SS sports pieces back to retail prices?

The PM’s are seeing a drop with even some of the sports models going below retail? This begs the question whether one day we’ll be able to just walk into an AD and get a steel piece. Of course there’s gonna be exceptions to this with models such as the Daytona.

Glad you raised the question as I’d never heard it asked before, thank you

[shaunylw]

I would imagine there is enough of a backlog to keep them elevated for a bit. We will see them level out and not be so far above retail. Like when i got 20k for my Pepsi, i don’t think that will continue.


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[goldboy]

What will happen is we get a very big dip where some sports models will be at msrp, until the fed prints more money due to the collapsing economy and inflation picks back up. Resulting in the largest asset inflation we'll probably ever experience in the North America and Europe.

[rolesor2022]

No one has a crystal ball, but imo, SS Daytona and GMTs will never be available. Subs, datejusts, explorers, seadweller, and YM will be though.

[S7gpt]

Originally Posted by GB-man

High end escorts is all I got.

[Cassian739]

Originally Posted by WWC

Will we sooner than later see SS sports pieces back to retail prices?

The PM’s are seeing a drop with even some of the sports models going below retail? This begs the question whether one day we’ll be able to just walk into an AD and get a steel piece. Of course there’s gonna be exceptions to this with models such as the Daytona.

Right after unicorns start delivering your Amazon packages and pigs fly first class.

[fsprow]

Stormy Daniels ?

[Harry-57]

You've just come up with the title and content for a half hour YouTube video. Unfortunately, a hundred other experts have beaten you to it.

[Sublovin]

I have always maintained that this is a blip caused by a perfect storm of a global pandemic, supply shortage and increased liquidity. People on here argued and laughed at me in 2021-2022 when I said it was temporary, but it is !
The only way that Rolex retail shortage continues in perpetuity is if Rolex manufacturers fewer watches, because there is no doubt a drop in demand.
Additionally, I have also maintained that paying even 1 penny over retail for a currently manufactured watch is foolish, unless you don’t mind throwing away money due to lack of patience.
No offense to forum sponsors, but I am looking forward to grey market disappearing! I’m amazed that many of these grey market dealers who sell brand new watches at far over retail are held in high regard. They are the problem! I’m all for a good second hand dealer, but looking at websites with page after page of brand new watches at a 100% markup, while a guy who wants to get a special watch to mark an occasion or as a gift, is left out in the cold…..is frustrating.
Personally, looking forward to getting back to enthusiasts and collectors, and leaving speculators behind. Sorry to rant.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I have always maintained that this is a blip caused by a perfect storm of a global pandemic, supply shortage and increased liquidity. People on here argued and laughed at me in 2021-2022 when I said it was temporary, but it is !
The only way that Rolex retail shortage continues in perpetuity is if Rolex manufacturers fewer watches, because there is no doubt a drop in demand.

All well and good saying "I told you all" now, but in reality, it's irrelevant - Go and try and buy a SS Daytona, GMT Master II or even a Submariner Date and you'll find that those watches are still in incredible demand, and the Daytona especially, has been for decades, that's just not going to change I'm afraid. More and more people are in positions to buy these watches (and more and more are not, conversely) meaning that honestly, no matter how much Rolex increases their supply, there will never be enough to meet the demand. There are millions of millionaires in the world, and millions more who are not but can still afford and want these watches. Is there a drop in demand? Yes, I would say so compared to a couple of years ago - but are you going to walk past an AD window with SS Daytonas sitting there for sale? Not a chance in hell, sorry.

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Additionally, I have also maintained that paying even 1 penny over retail for a currently manufactured watch is foolish, unless you don’t mind throwing away money due to lack of patience.

What is more foolish? Buying on the grey market for a premium or buying a load of watches/items (creating that premium) you don't want to build a "relationship?" I've never bought on the grey market but I certainly understand the appeal of getting what you want without the games. Some people don't mind playing it, some people refuse to. It's not foolish, it's just horses-for-courses, you will always find people who don't want to wait. Don't forget, part of the appeal to some people, of a lot of these watches is that they are hard to get. Rolex prefers that image, it's a better look than the likes of Omega that have their massive collection sat in the displays gathering dust and being sold at a discount because it's the only way they can be shifted.

Originally Posted by Sublovin

No offense to forum sponsors, but I am looking forward to grey market disappearing! I’m amazed that many of these grey market dealers who sell brand new watches at far over retail are held in high regard. They are the problem! I’m all for a good second hand dealer, but looking at websites with page after page of brand new watches at a 100% markup, while a guy who wants to get a special watch to mark an occasion or as a gift, is left out in the cold…..is frustrating.
Personally, looking forward to getting back to enthusiasts and collectors, and leaving speculators behind. Sorry to rant.

Watches are not just for enthusiasts or collectors, particularly Rolex. They are for everyone. "Non-watch people" are not necessarily enthusiasts, but might want to use a Rolex to mark special occasions etc, as has always been the way. AD's in fact do a fairly good job of fulfilling this need for general buyers. It's the more special stuff that is a challenge.
With this in mind, you'll in fact find, that it is indeed US that is the problem, not solely the grey dealers. The grey dealers simply facilitate what we, the wider market want. Do they do it in the most open and honest way? That is open for discussion, but nevertheless, if demand were not there, they would not exist at all, but they do, so you may as well live with it. Use them if you want to, if you don't, don't.

[panerai-lover111]

Most of the PM models are already at or under MSRP.

Many SS are already at MSRP or for the less popular models already under.

1000% all the watches will be back at MSRP within 24 months. Watch market is completely dead and all the flippers and hype is gone.

On social media accounts that used to have 1000s of comments dont even have a single comment on their posts anymore when they post a video of a watch.

Only the models that traditionally traded above msrp for many decades will remain to do so and that is only the SS Daytona and some very rare vintage Rolex. All others will be back to normal soon.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

Most of the PM models are already at or under MSRP.

Many SS are already at MSRP or for the less popular models already under.

1000% all the watches will be back at MSRP within 24 months. Watch market is completely dead and all the flippers and hype is gone.

On social media accounts that used to have 1000s of comments dont even have a single comment on their posts anymore when they post a video of a watch.

Only the models that traditionally traded above msrp for many decades will remain to do so and that is only the SS Daytona and some very rare vintage Rolex. All others will be back to normal soon.

TBH I'd feel that way if I was a Panerai lover...

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

All well and good saying "I told you all" now, but in reality, it's irrelevant - Go and try and buy a SS Daytona, GMT Master II or even a Submariner Date and you'll find that those watches are still in incredible demand, and the Daytona especially, has been for decades, that's just not going to change I'm afraid. More and more people are in positions to buy these watches (and more and more are not, conversely) meaning that honestly, no matter how much Rolex increases their supply, there will never be enough to meet the demand. There are millions of millionaires in the world, and millions more who are not but can still afford and want these watches. Is there a drop in demand? Yes, I would say so compared to a couple of years ago - but are you going to walk past an AD window with SS Daytonas sitting there for sale? Not a chance in hell, sorry.


What is more foolish? Buying on the grey market for a premium or buying a load of watches/items (creating that premium) you don't want to build a "relationship?" I've never bought on the grey market but I certainly understand the appeal of getting what you want without the games. Some people don't mind playing it, some people refuse to. It's not foolish, it's just horses-for-courses, you will always find people who don't want to wait. Don't forget, part of the appeal to some people, of a lot of these watches is that they are hard to get. Rolex prefers that image, it's a better look than the likes of Omega that have their massive collection sat in the displays gathering dust and being sold at a discount because it's the only way they can be shifted.



Watches are not just for enthusiasts or collectors, particularly Rolex. They are for everyone. "Non-watch people" are not necessarily enthusiasts, but might want to use a Rolex to mark special occasions etc, as has always been the way. AD's in fact do a fairly good job of fulfilling this need for general buyers. It's the more special stuff that is a challenge.
With this in mind, you'll in fact find, that it is indeed US that is the problem, not solely the grey dealers. The grey dealers simply facilitate what we, the wider market want. Do they do it in the most open and honest way? That is open for discussion, but nevertheless, if demand were not there, they would not exist at all, but they do, so you may as well live with it. Use them if you want to, if you don't, don't.

I’m not sure why you think demand dropping is irrelevant. It continues to drop, so until we know what the bottom is, tough to say that it’s irrelevant. It seems very relevant to the people posting here everyday in amazement that they “got the call”.
Also, I am a true capitalist, so I won’t fault the grey dealers for “capitalizing” on the market opportunity, but as a collector, they are absolutely the problem. You say they facilitate demand, but that same demand would be facilitated by the AD at retail price if the grey dealers weren’t gobbling them all up and selling at a mark-up. Totally agree that the market is open to non-collectors who just want a watch and they should be able to buy one from an AD, with their name on the papers, at retail.
Lastly, I don’t participate in either practice you mention. I don’t buy new watches from “grey” dealers, and I won’t buy junk I don’t want from AD to move up a list. If people want to do either, it’s truly their choice, just offering my perspective.
The sooner the “investors” and “speculators” move on, the better. And it is absolutely happening! Cheers

[Nads786]

I don't think this is as much about how wealthy people are as about how long their interest will stay in watches. I think at some people everyone wakes up and realizes this is not an investment and I have a $100K in watches what am I doing put it in the market?

Or another thought is they realize they got into the hype sell their collection and move on to something else. It happens all the time with hobbies and investments hence you can buy golf clubs for 50% off.

The ones that remain are the true watch nuts. There are just too many better investment options out there.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I’m not sure why you think demand dropping is irrelevant. It continues to drop, so until we know what the bottom is, tough to say that it’s irrelevant. It seems very relevant to the people posting here everyday in amazement that they “got the call”.
Also, I am a true capitalist, so I won’t fault the grey dealers for “capitalizing” on the market opportunity, but as a collector, they are absolutely the problem. You say they facilitate demand, but that same demand would be facilitated by the AD at retail price if the grey dealers weren’t gobbling them all up and selling at a mark-up. Totally agree that the market is open to non-collectors who just want a watch and they should be able to buy one from an AD, with their name on the papers, at retail.
Lastly, I don’t participate in either practice you mention. I don’t buy new watches from “grey” dealers, and I won’t buy junk I don’t want from AD to move up a list. If people want to do either, it’s truly their choice, just offering my perspective.
The sooner the “investors” and “speculators” move on, the better. And it is absolutely happening! Cheers

I didn't say demand dropping is irrelevant - I said that you saying "look everyone I told you so" is irrelevant. My point was that nobody cares that you said it in 21/22.

Also your comment about those posting about "getting the call" and "incoming" etc... it's backwards to say demand is dropping to new lows, because if that was the case, people would not be buying at all and therefore not posting incoming posts. But they are...

Demand is there and it always will be, it's just not going to be at the heights that it was at the post covid peak. As for “investors” and “speculators” moving on, some are, some are not. That aspect will always exist, for as long as these items exchange for thousands of dollars and there is a market for people to liquidate them.

Anyone who thinks the grey market is going to disappear completely is living in a fantasy land. There is always going to be people who want to sell their watches, and as such, dealers will offer liquidity for this, and capitalise.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I don't think this is as much about how wealthy people are as about how long their interest will stay in watches. I think at some people everyone wakes up and realizes this is not an investment and I have a $100K in watches what am I doing put it in the market?

Or another thought is they realize they got into the hype sell their collection and move on to something else. It happens all the time with hobbies and investments hence you can buy golf clubs for 50% off.

The ones that remain are the true watch nuts. There are just too many better investment options out there.

You say that, but many, many watches have outpaced the likes of even Gold in the last 20-30yrs in terms of an investment. In fact, there's many markets that watches have outpaced, even with today's downturn in values.

If you're looking far, far ahead, there's definitely worse places to have $100k tied up in than in a few select pieces, IMO. Looking ahead another 20-30-40yrs.