SS sports models back to MSRP

[WWC]

Will we sooner than later see SS sports pieces back to retail prices?

The PM’s are seeing a drop with even some of the sports models going below retail? This begs the question whether one day we’ll be able to just walk into an AD and get a steel piece. Of course there’s gonna be exceptions to this with models such as the Daytona.

[kieselguhr]

After consulting the ancestors, the answer is a resounding yes. Three days from the day it happens, look to the stars and it shall be known to all. So let it be written. So let it be done.

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Most likely. We're trending that way currently. But I don't know that things will remain that way if/when we get there.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

After consulting the ancestors, the answer is a resounding yes. Three days from the day it happens, look to the stars and it shall be known to all. So let it be written. So let it be done.

Seven deadly sins
Seven ways to win
Seven holy paths to hell and your trip begins
Seven downward slopes
Seven bloodied hopes
Seven are your burning fires…
Seven steel models under MSRP are your desires!

[L_S_SHOE]

Unlikely. The SS sports models are the most sought after. Unless the supply of new SS watches to Grey dealers dries up (and there’s no evidence that will ever happen), then it will continue to be easier to get them from a Grey dealer. There will always be someone willing to pay a premium for convenience.


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[Mystro]

Daytona-No
SS GMT-No
Sub-maybe but not soon
No date Sub-maybe but not soon
Explorer-maybe but sooner than ND Sub
SD43-maybe
Black DSSD- sooner
OP-even soonest

Most TT models sooner than SS models

SS DateJust will be the first to return to msrp before any professional models will.

[mobster600]

Depends on if customer demand continues to remain high or goes even higher. The Rolex factories are supposes to come on line next year which will improve the current shortage of supply. To get Rolex's INSIDE the cases, ready to buy, a quick answer is not anytime soon. I'd predict at least 1-2 years before Rolex's were inside the cases. The certified pre-owned program will ease the supply pain and align buyers to pre-owned watches rather then brand new. Its all going to take time.

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Daytona-No
SS GMT-No
Sub-maybe but not soon
No date Sub-maybe but not soon
Explorer-maybe but sooner than ND Sub
SD43-maybe
Black DSSD- sooner
OP-even soonest

Most TT models sooner than SS models

SS DateJust will be the first to return to msrp before any professional models will.

Reasonable assessment. I would say the ND sub gets there sooner-ish than later-ish department. Secondary pricing on those is barely above MSRP +tax, that I have seen anyway.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Daytona-No
SS GMT-No
Sub-maybe but not soon
No date Sub-maybe but not soon
Explorer-maybe but sooner than ND Sub
SD43-maybe
Black DSSD- sooner
OP-even soonest

Most TT models sooner than SS models

SS DateJust will be the first to return to msrp before any professional models will.

Agree with this except I don’t see OP41 green dropping to retail anytime soon as the ADs just don’t get than many in.

[Potawatomi]

My AD said "all the models will be below MSRP except the Daytona and the Gronster"

[thegrandseirolexguy]

Other than the SS Daytona, GMT master, sub date, the rest of the professional line up can easily be had under MSRP now. Pre-owned of course.

Brand new under MSRP is still some time away.


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[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

My AD said "all the models will be below MSRP except the Daytona and the Gronster"

Rubbish, sorry.

If anything, the SS GRNR is likely to be the most "available" GMT Master II. The amount that is flooding the market right now is astonishing, around 54 listed (mostly in-hand) on C24, only like 7-8 weeks after WaW, this has to be a record for a SS GMT.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by WWC

Will we sooner than later see SS sports pieces back to retail prices?

The PM’s are seeing a drop with even some of the sports models going below retail? This begs the question whether one day we’ll be able to just walk into an AD and get a steel piece. Of course there’s gonna be exceptions to this with models such as the Daytona.

My opinion, for what it's worth, is that we're going to see only a select few Rolex models trade on the open market at or around retail prices.
This will mostly be things such as Explorer II's, Explorers, OP's with non-fancy dial colours, basic dial Datejusts, and no-date Submariner (maybe), two-tones and solid PM's are already there.
Chances are, you're probably going to be able to walk in and buy one of the above at some point, but generally, the truth is, "normal" people won't because they cannot afford them.

But, importantly, I don't think it matters. This was always how it used to be, it's how the brand works and they're not going to slow down production of these mainstay watches any time soon. Demand on the open market is slow; the general public doesn't have the excess money they did over the last 3-4yrs, and it's going to be a number of years before this changes.

However - interest rates reducing, inflation reducing, and risk assets increasing in value on the stock market and crypto markets, respectively, will mean that the harder-to-get stuff will probably see continued strength into the next 18 months/2yrs+. This is due to the equality gap increasing, the much wealthier people's net worth accelerating at a greater rate than everyone else's. As a result, I think we're going to see things like SS Daytonas, rarer GMTs such as the BLRO, VTNR and BLNR see increasing, or at least much more stable values.

[AK797]

Prices will move slowly back towards retail but not close enough as the next bull market will emerge and now Rolexes are very much in play as an asset, their prices will rise heavily again, it will be a boom/mild bust cycle in these watches from now on.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by AK797

Prices will move slowly back towards retail but not close enough as the next bull market will emerge and now Rolexes are very much in play as an asset, their prices will rise heavily again, it will be a boom/mild bust cycle in these watches from now on.

Yeh this is what I was eluding to - they're more in line now with wider markets than ever, as the macro improves, as will the watch market in my opinion

[Potawatomi]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Rubbish, sorry.

If anything, the SS GRNR is likely to be the most "available" GMT Master II. The amount that is flooding the market right now is astonishing, around 54 listed (mostly in-hand) on C24, only like 7-8 weeks after WaW, this has to be a record for a SS GMT.

My AD has said that the gronster is the VTNR for the black and green on the bezel.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

My AD has said that the gronster is the VTNR for the black and green on the bezel.

huh?

Haha we have that many nonsense nicknames now we're just using the wrong ones for whatever we want

VTNR is the (apparently) the Sprite, Sir. Or indeed, to some people it's called the "Riddler".

If your AD thinks the VTNR is going below MSRP, they have another thing coming lol

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by AK797

Prices will move slowly back towards retail but not close enough as the next bull market will emerge and now Rolexes are very much in play as an asset, their prices will rise heavily again, it will be a boom/mild bust cycle in these watches from now on.

Nice to see you back Neil

[Hollie_Rollie]

I used to think we’d see MSRP eventually ..one day…

But given how well ADs have been doing and how well the used watch sellers have been doing…they have every reason to keep the market the way it is.

If you’re a top used watch seller you most likely have a solid relationship with an AD. An AD will just move hot pieces to a used watch dealer. Well most likely see a softening in the used watch dealer ask prices though. Some of the smug ones might even be open to negotiation at that point too


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[996marty]

Hindsight is always a great thing and at some point in time you’ll look back and think I wished I’d bought that watch before prices went up……because eventually they will

[JonnyOld Boy]

I personally know two grey dealers who ditched their ENTIRE STOCK of used Rolex, both at a modest loss 12-ish months ago. The reason in both cases was an almost overnight evaporation of demand at the previously achievable prices. Both these dealers are still out of the used Rolex market. Obviously this is a forum for Rolex lovers and/or watch lovers in general and the sentiment for the Brand will alway appear bouyant. But out in the real world, the mood is changing and the "desirability" of the brand is no longer glued to the "aspirations" of many buyers. I predict this time next year , most ADs will have window stock for sale ..... representing about 60-70% of the model offerings.

[watchwatcher]

I doubt it, but you never know.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by JonnyOld Boy

I personally know two grey dealers who ditched their ENTIRE STOCK of used Rolex, both at a modest loss 12-ish months ago. The reason in both cases was an almost overnight evaporation of demand at the previously achievable prices. Both these dealers are still out of the used Rolex market. Obviously this is a forum for Rolex lovers and/or watch lovers in general and the sentiment for the Brand will alway appear bouyant. But out in the real world, the mood is changing and the "desirability" of the brand is no longer glued to the "aspirations" of many buyers. I predict this time next year , most ADs will have window stock for sale ..... representing about 60-70% of the model offerings.

Good. I'm glad to see that a couple of wannabe grey dealers got wiped out of the game.

IMO it's not a change in the "desirability" of the brand; it's just an indication of the current economic situation. Previously we had people buying these watches who usually would not have been able to, and therefore demand increased exponentially. That demand has all but dried up, thanks to cost of living, inflation and interest rates.

Rolex's brand is one of the most powerful brands in the world; it doesn't get diminished in a matter of months just because some dodgy backstreet dealer decided to liquidate his stock that he couldn't afford to hold in the first place.

[Apdl]

My guess is there will always be a wait, how long.. likely much much shorter

[2001jesper]

Where are all the people who said that prices will never come down again

[Bazil]

My balls not crystal ..

[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

After consulting the ancestors, the answer is a resounding yes. Three days from the day it happens, look to the stars and it shall be known to all. So let it be written. So let it be done.

LoL

[Barada7]

ADs, if they’re honest with you, will acknowledge the headwinds. I think it’s only a matter of time before there are many available at retail. But the in-demand models will remain scarce (Subs, GMTs, Daytonas).

[ArtNouveau]

Never say never but I think we’re years away if ever seeing full cases again with instant availability. If and when we do it will be in tiers as Mystro describes.

[MRBolton]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Daytona-No
SS GMT-No
Sub-maybe but not soon
No date Sub-maybe but not soon
Explorer-maybe but sooner than ND Sub
SD43-maybe
Black DSSD- sooner
OP-even soonest

Most TT models sooner than SS models

SS DateJust will be the first to return to msrp before any professional models will.

What makes you think that the SS GMT is a no? I could see maybe the Pepsi remaining tough to get, but perhaps the Sprite or Batman could ease up at some point, especially if the Subs are a bit easier to get.