Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by CaptT

The barometer (for me, at least) is the buying behavior of the trusted sellers here and other “grey market” dealers: are they buying used watches (to resell) and if so at what price. And the answer to that is no, they’re not rapidly buying up watches in the way that they were ~2+ years ago, and the limited watches they are buying they’re not paying nearly the price they had in the past.

That’s not to say that trusted sellers and grey market don’t have a place in this ecosystem, or add value. It’s just a reality of demand - things have changed significantly and prices/velocity is down.

This is the true litmus test. And very clear when you do your diligence prices are on a downward trajectory (some with no real bottom realized)

[HMHM]

If the present market is not on the downward trajectory, then I don’t know what is….


The only question is how far down….

[thenewrick]

Can I get a like-new blue dial Milgauss for $5,000 yet? No? Okay, back to not paying attention to the "watch market".

[casadecamporolex]

In the last month, I’ve had calls from ADs that I had reached out to for the Plat DD.
They are trying to sell me everything but that.
Each explains the demand for coveted watches remains, but those aren’t in their incoming inventory.
I see a return to normalcy, but not discounting between ADs. CPO will take the hit first.

[TheMethod]

Down from the craze when Panda Daytonas were going for 50k and certain steel Royal Oaks for over 100k. But it's more or less stabilized now.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Car32

The white gold 126619LB Sub is below MSRP and has been for awhile now.

That has never been a strong seller even the Smurf back in the day. Now the Smurf is holding really high. I was mainly referring to the yellow gold Bluesy. They were a really good value for money a few years back but now they are holding strong.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Henrimontgomery

VC and ALS reached out to me recently for models I was interested.

I sent them flying, but they still came back. They are desperate and probably have terrible YoY growth.

Go figure. ALS kept raising the prices, assumed there was a market big enough for those watches, denying loyal customers access to their limited editions and told them to pound sand and now they are here begging again. Perhaps they should start removing that huge mark up, go back to their old prices and start discounting again.

[orangespicy]

Yup, well I'm hopeful at least.. Luxury items are a market at the end of the day, and all markets (no exceptions) go through cycles..

[ChetBaker]

Originally Posted by Henrimontgomery

VC and ALS reached out to me recently for models I was interested.

I sent them flying, but they still came back. They are desperate and probably have terrible YoY growth.

If you were interested, why didn’t you buy these watches? I think the answer to that question explains where we are in today’s market.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Was at an event sponsored by the local ferrari dealership. They had 2 new F296s available that were ordered by individuals who have businesses in China that decided not to pick up their cars.

Those cars are are not listed on their website. Ferrari NA does not allow new cars to be listed online. They want maintain the appearance that demand exceeds supply. The games are no longer working like they used to.

I assume those 2 Ferrari’s are sold by now

[martyjanderson]

I find it interesting that places like Govberg has Rolexes often very old that are crazy inflated to the point its laughable and they have the same ones up there for very long periods of time. If I had not found Nashville and OC Watch I guess perhaps Id have been tempted they got SD 43 for around 16 that are 2018.

Seems like almost zero movement on their steel sport watches.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

Ferrari NA does not allow new cars to be listed online. They want maintain the appearance that demand exceeds supply. The games are no longer working like they used to.

Wow, just wow.

What's next, limiting certain strap colors to only be sold to 'blessed' clients? Oh wait, that's _____ retail brand.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Wow, just wow.

What's next, limiting certain strap colors to only be sold to 'blessed' clients? Oh wait, that's _____ retail brand.

Patek already does this with the aquanaut

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Patek already does this with the aquanaut

The Patek dealer told me you have to write an essay to get certain models, and Patek also wants a list of every model you've ever bought retail and still own. Insanity.

[watchfreak207]

I think the market has definitely slowed down. Was offered a few Rolexes like TT YM, PM Sky. Yes not in demand pieces, but I have zero purchase history with this AD. I had an interest list with them 2 years ago. They are definitely scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Was even offered a few PPs if I was interested. I think watches will return to normalcy soon.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by ChetBaker

If you were interested, why didn’t you buy these watches? I think the answer to that question explains where we are in today’s market.

This happens when bubbles pop. FOMO on the way up becomes FAFO on the way down as nobody wants to catch a falling knife.

VC and ALS's Richemont went too crazy with the price hikes in recent years as well.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by watchfreak207

I think the market has definitely slowed down. Was offered a few Rolexes like TT YM, PM Sky. Yes not in demand pieces, but I have zero purchase history with this AD. I had an interest list with them 2 years ago. They are definitely scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Was even offered a few PPs if I was interested. I think watches will return to normalcy soon.

What I am curious about is will normal look like 2019 or 2016? In 2019 you couldn't really walk in and buy and steel sports except for maybe an Exp I or II if you were lucky. But you could definitely be put on a real wait list for stuff like Subs and even BLNRs.

OR are we going back to 2016 where basically every steel sports model sans Daytona is available and sitting in the display case?

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by martyjanderson

I find it interesting that places like Govberg has Rolexes often very old that are crazy inflated to the point its laughable and they have the same ones up there for very long periods of time. If I had not found Nashville and OC Watch I guess perhaps Id have been tempted they got SD 43 for around 16 that are 2018.

Seems like almost zero movement on their steel sport watches.

CPOs? Pricing on those is absurd to the point of being funny.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

CPOs? Pricing on those is absurd to the point of being funny.

They are honestly so absurdly high, i don’t know what they are doing. You can charge 10% more under 20k, maybe 5% more than grey for over 20k, and they would have a backlog of pre owned buyers waiting. They were trying to sell a 16600 for something like 15k. Every single CPO i saw in Vegas was priced so far from reality, wasn’t shocked their case was full.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BruRol]

Rolex walking away from F1 is a good indicator of how business is going. Saving where they can.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by BruRol

Rolex walking away from F1 is a good indicator of how business is going. Saving where they can.

Long thread elsewhere with lots of detail explaining why that certainly is not the case.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...hlight=sponsor

Rolex is building 3 new factories, and proudly has a 30% market share on the entire luxury watch market. Not to mention now owns Bucherer, meaning that whichever brand ends up sponsoring F1, such as TAG Heuer, they will be making money on sales of TAG Heuers as well...

Don't be fooled into thinking Rolex is running out of money, my friend.

[Marcjvr]

Each year they make a million+ watches. Literally over the next years and beyond they will churn out millions and millions of watches.

[DougUSMC]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

They are honestly so absurdly high, i don’t know what they are doing. You can charge 10% more under 20k, maybe 5% more than grey for over 20k, and they would have a backlog of pre owned buyers waiting. They were trying to sell a 16600 for something like 15k. Every single CPO i saw in Vegas was priced so far from reality, wasn’t shocked their case was full.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This. My AD has always been cool w/me, both for Rolex and "other things". They have some really cool pieces in the CPO case that I'd love to check out. I even asked once if I could ever hope that their prices would come inline with the rest of the market, so I could buy more from them. She asked me which market I was referring to. I said "anyone not an AD CPO". She smiled and said "not likely soon".

They believe they have a captive audience - many who think they can walk in and buy a new watch out of the case and learn the hard way there's a wait. Some of those will walk over to the CPO case and spend another $5-10k to get it that day. As long as that happens for them, they're happy to keep the prices higher.

As my AD said "If we can make significantly more on each sale, as long as the sales are still happening why would we reduce the prices to sell more with less markup? It's the same net for us."

I can't really argue with that.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Each year they make a million+ watches. Literally over the next years and beyond they will churn out millions and millions of watches.

Yep, and they will still continue to all be sold, even the models that people think won't, will.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

They are honestly so absurdly high, i don’t know what they are doing. You can charge 10% more under 20k, maybe 5% more than grey for over 20k, and they would have a backlog of pre owned buyers waiting. They were trying to sell a 16600 for something like 15k. Every single CPO i saw in Vegas was priced so far from reality, wasn’t shocked their case was full.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeh I agree, they are priced really high here in the UK too. I've questioned who are buying these, if at anyone at all?

Until it clicked

While these may not be flying off the shelves, my AD told me those purchases absolutely *do* go towards your allocation "prospects". So, while you might pay overs on an Explorer 2 or whatever it may be, it may well eventually put you in a better position to be allocated more higher demand pieces. In the short term, yes you will probably be a tad out of pocket, but the program will eventually, over time, allow you to trade in and out of watches as you wish, along with obtain other pieces at a retail level too, so perhaps their plan is looking a little further ahead in time.

You can't do that with any grey market dealer. Granted, the other thought is that you could just go grey for the high-demand piece and have done with it, however some people may much rather buy CPO from their AD, as it removes any questions over authenticity and other dodgy goings on.

Put it this way, if they reduced their prices to the more realistic market prices, I believe they would trade many more watches. I, for one, if I were in the market, would MUCH prefer to buy CPO from my AD instead of running the gauntlet with a grey dealer.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Yeh I agree, they are priced really high here in the UK too. I've questioned who are buying these, if at anyone at all?

Until it clicked

While these may not be flying off the shelves, my AD told me those purchases absolutely *do* go towards your allocation "prospects". So, while you might pay overs on an Explorer 2 or whatever it may be, it may well eventually put you in a better position to be allocated more higher demand pieces. In the short term, yes you will probably be a tad out of pocket, but the program will eventually, over time, allow you to trade in and out of watches as you wish, along with obtain other pieces at a retail level too, so perhaps their plan is looking a little further ahead in time.

You can't do that with any grey market dealer. Granted, the other thought is that you could just go grey for the high-demand piece and have done with it, however some people may much rather buy CPO from their AD, as it removes any questions over authenticity and other dodgy goings on.

Put it this way, if they reduced their prices to the more realistic market prices, I believe they would trade many more watches. I, for one, if I were in the market, would MUCH prefer to buy CPO from my AD instead of running the gauntlet with a grey dealer.

If you want to pay an extra $3K to $5K thru the CPO program, it is your money to do so. We have many Trusted Sellers here I would rather give my money to.

I still do not understand why people buy watches and jewelry from an AD that they don’t want or need to put them in a better position with the AD. It is your coin, do what you want with it.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

The Patek dealer told me you have to write an essay to get certain models, and Patek also wants a list of every model you've ever bought retail and still own. Insanity.

It deeply saddens me to hear this. The Patek Philippe i grew up loving was compassionate, inventive, and felt like family. David, Francine.... This was in the late 1980s until PP changed NYC locations. Thankfully, many independents have come to the forefront and are showcasing amazing timepieces. And because these are handmade for you by talented watchmakers, you may be able to choose a special color / design dial, movement decoration preferences, etc.

[njlam]

Originally Posted by casadecamporolex

In the last month, I’ve had calls from ADs that I had reached out to for the Plat DD.
They are trying to sell me everything but that.
Each explains the demand for coveted watches remains, but those aren’t in their incoming inventory.
I see a return to normalcy, but not discounting between ADs. CPO will take the hit first.

I am waiting for that platinum DD40 too. Lots of them on Chrono24 for $10k to 40K over MSRP...

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by BillA

If you want to pay an extra $3K to $5K thru the CPO program, it is your money to do so. We have many Trusted Sellers here I would rather give my money to.

I still do not understand why people buy watches and jewelry from an AD that they don’t want or need to put them in a better position with the AD. It is your coin, do what you want with it.

I'm speaking more of people who are not so much "in the know" like us.

There are plenty. As I've mentioned on a thread elsewhere, many people see something and buy it.

[enjoythemusic]

As an FYI, just released....

Swiss watchmaking in June 2024
Marked decline

June was not a positive month for Swiss watch exports, impacted by two fewer working days and a more significant decline in Asian markets, with the notable exception of Japan. Exports amounted to 2.3 billion francs, a fall of 7.2% compared with June 2023. Six months into the year, the sector has shipped the equivalent of 12.9 billion francs abroad, representing a 3.3% reduction compared with the first half of last year.

https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getsta...m_240606_a.pdf