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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#1 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: US
Posts: 3,824
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Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?
I read in today’s WSJ that Cartier (Richemont) had a decline in sales due to lack of Chinese sales. Some of the other jewelry/watch companies showing a slowdown. I do notice a slight softening of Rolex professional models on the sales forum, but not huge. Is demand for Rolex watches softening and if so, why now?
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#2 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2021
Real Name: It's not Tim
Location: EST
Watch: 126610LN
Posts: 1,149
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High interest rates and inflation, world returning to normal, happening to all markets.
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#3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 969
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sw...china-downturn
Not fully buying the downturn reports. Yes, I’ve seen some Rolex watches on Chrono24 have their asking prices reduced a bit. Still ridiculous though. And they are sitting there without being sold, so it remains to be seen I guess. For new models my guess is that a majority will still go into the “developing world” and here in America and Europe it’ll remain difficult even to get basic models. I hope I’m wrong. |
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#4 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,158
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Absolutely the watch market peaked Q4 2021. Chinese equities didn’t come back like US equities post Covid, interest rates mean people have better uses for spare cash and those that extend theirselves have less to spend. Most of all the illusion of guaranteed appreciation has been broken.
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#5 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: North Carolina
Watch: Rolex/Others
Posts: 46,542
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Maybe for watches that are not as hot. But for the usual suspects, Daytona/BLRO etc. the market is still strong. Much of what is written is from the perspective of what occurred from the highs. Very little is written about the averages over the time horizon that gives us an extended view of the market.
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#6 |
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Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: .
Posts: 346
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Rolex is the largest producer of luxury watches with more than 1.1 million watch per year. It is bound to happen for certain models within their line up however, SS Daytona, GMT, and Subs will always be less accessible in order for the brand to maintain hype and status.
When I was in Bareclona recently, many models were available for walk in customers like SS deep-sea, Sea Dweller and some precious metal watches like full gold Sub or lady watches. I was also able to grab Explorer I 40mm which was an exhibition model. I expect things to soften but once US market data start to reflect more certainty and interst rates are reduced we might see an increased demand. |
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#7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2013
Real Name: Rick
Location: Ohio
Posts: 219
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There is some slight correction but it may be temporary. Interest rates will be going down slowly and US stock markets are at record highs. We could see demand increase again but I’m no Nostradamus.
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#8 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 11,025
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I see a gradual return to normal which is most models returning to the cases. People only need so many watches and the collector market is probably more concentrated than people think and is also saturated with watches. Rolex will do fine as inventory becomes more available casual one-time buyers will return and buy their special one only occasion/milestone watches.
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#9 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 20,428
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Remember all that 'free' currency central banks allowed governments to just give away... that was the Sugar Rush. Cars, homes, timpeices, boats, RVs... we all danced and sang and partied on the free currency giveaways.
Well... no more free sugar (except for the Military industrial complex and banks who need their Student Loans paid ASAP to help their troubled balance sheets). Now comes the hangover for everyone not getting free handouts. PS: If you know someone in the auto repo industry, may i suggest you ask them.....
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__________________ Love timepieces and want to become a Watchmaker? Rolex has a sensational school. www.RolexWatchmakingTrainingCenter.com/ Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
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#10 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2023
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 613
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Quote:
ADs are likely seeing a slight downturn, along with PM models sitting in the window or in the safe for a bit longer than they would have a couple of years ago. In my opinion, things are just returning back to the mean - the previous cycle where the watch market was going insane was an significant outlier, and a lot of watches went nuts that had no business doing so. They're returning back down to earth now, as demand is finding itself a new floor. If you think the Rolex market is softening off, you should take a look at the Audemars Piguet market, it's in a complete shambles. This is what happens when people with too much money decide that watches are brilliant investment vehicles instead of just enjoying them for what they are. I do occasionally wonder how those guys are doing that paid $50,000+ for ceramic Daytonas and $30,000+ for SS GMT Masters... Fools and their money are swiftly parted, as they say. |
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#11 | |
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Join Date: May 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 67
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Quote:
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#12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: canada
Watch: Daytona 116500
Posts: 459
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Pendulum swing of the economy due to rates and other QT factors.
Economy is broken though so well probably see drastic swings to both extremes in the next decade. It may be tightening now, but chances are we could see even more extreme inflation in the future which of course affects watch asset prices just like cars etc... |
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#13 |
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Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: Day-Date
Posts: 242
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I would say media companies and their funky articles absolutely blow it out of proportion. That being said the market is down, but it's hard to know exactly how much unless you are buying / selling everyday. The professional sought out models still carry a premium and I don't see that changing for the hot models.
Great time to buy though. |
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#14 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 76,248
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Prices are definitely softer. Maybe Chewey is finished buying Rolexes.
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#15 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Switzerland
Watch: 116520
Posts: 105
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There is an interesting article on Revolution today about the Swatch Group:
https://revolutionwatch.com/swatch-group-business-news/ Also touches upon the subject of mid-tier vs. high-tier and the geographical dependency |
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#16 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2023
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 613
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Quote:
What that comes down to, isn't that most people are looking to be able to grab a bargain, or perhaps hoping that the market will uptick, the reality is that people, sadly, love to see people down or taking a hit on something. It gets clicks, it gets emotions running, it gets attention. |
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#17 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2023
Location: UK
Posts: 217
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Yes. There really is a slowdown in the Rolex secondary market. This mirrors a slow down in the Rolex primary (ie new) market too.
There are both regional factors that have caused a greater slowdown in some markets like China, but also global factors. The Chinese market has weaker than trend demand due to economic uncertainty, wage reductions and job insecurity. The Japanese market is also suffering reduced domestic expenditure due to currency weakness. But supply from these markets can easily be traded into other international markets. But this forces these other markets to absorb higher supply where demand might not be that deep. Here in the UK for example, few Rolex models support used prices high enough to avoid making a loss once trading costs are taken into account. (Few obvious exceptions like steel Daytona and platinum Yachty). And this means that new Rolex are readily available. In the past three months I've been offered Batwoman, 40mm Steel or 40mm Gold Yachtys, OPs and DJs all by walking into stores and going through the sales chit chat with a friendly sales person. Problem is that I've not been looking for any of these watches. The sales guy however was looking for a buyer for these watches. So Rolex watches are available to buy at RRP now. And it is not just the "classic" but also some of the "professional" watches too. There is plentiful supply on the used market too, just maybe some sellers have not quite come to terms that their inventory will not sell at the prices they've been marked up at. Then you need to take an opinion of which way the economy will turn. Here is a clue: look at what is happening to tarrifs between BRICs and the USA / EU. |
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#18 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: NWA, USA
Watch: BLRO/Daytona/OP41s
Posts: 5,185
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I believe most of the replies here are overthinking things. I doubt the market has changed much overall, different locations to different degrees. My own anecdotal evidence after speaking with two ADs last week is that business is still good. A “relationship” or wait is still needed for most models and demand outstrips supply for the most requested.
As far as reseller/used prices go they’re still more than I would pay, I wouldn’t consider used unless it was the same or less than retail. For the record, my four Rolex models are all still worth more than they were when I bought them new from AD. |
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#19 |
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Join Date: May 2019
Location: Uk
Watch: RolexGMT/Tudor7928
Posts: 3,695
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The market is soft and has been for a long time
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#20 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Boutique
Posts: 28
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfr...-report-finds/
In my opinion there is zero shot prices go back up like some have mentioned in this thread. Watches became “investments” to people and they got burned. It will never return to the highs. If people were buying watches just for collecting purposes the last few years, we still would have seen high prices but not to the extent. The reason prices haven’t crashed even more is because people are still holding their inventory hanging on to sliver of hope. It will go down and down and down. I doubt to pre Covid prices but we have yet to see the bottom.. |
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#21 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2023
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 613
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Quote:
AD's will always tell you business is good. Their side of things wont be that bad - difficult to obtain pieces will always be difficult to obtain. They're still worried about finding buyers for full yellow gold Skydwellers and yachtmasters, that's for damn sure. If you're like me, who only tends to buy what they love, and buy at retail, and not really sell any watches, then it really won't matter to you one jot what the market is doing. It doesn't to me, anyway. |
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#22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 1,109
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Of course it has slowed. Will be further slowing as labor market is impacted and the cycle shifts down another gear. The cycle was just extended due to excess savings. The no landing narrative is yet another “this time it’s different” narrative that will look laughable in hindsight.
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#23 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: The Mystro ;)
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Posts: 15,229
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Let’s put it this way,…..the mid summer is always the slow down of the watch market regardless what the economy is doing. Not that I am in the market for a new watch but I am using my resources and sniffing around for any “deals” in the secondary market and not finding anything I wouldn’t have seen last year at the same price point this time of year.
If anything I would say the watch market has finally stabilized. No one is desperate, there isn’t any “fire sales” or liquidation by owners or the grey market. I am not just look at the Rolex brand either. Rolex AD’s still don’t even display extremely common and low desirable models in the display cases. Even traditionally soft PM models like the LB Sub is still asking big money in the pre owned market. If there is a slow down I have yet to see it translate to a tangible difference for the Rolex buyer…
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#24 |
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Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Uranus
Watch: 116500LN
Posts: 4,768
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Yes
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#25 |
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Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: EARTH
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Yep
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“UNpolished or I’m not interested” 😎 ![]() |
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#26 | |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: USA
Posts: 502
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Quote:
That’s not to say that trusted sellers and grey market don’t have a place in this ecosystem, or add value. It’s just a reality of demand - things have changed significantly and prices/velocity is down. |
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#27 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Switzerland
Watch: yourself
Posts: 1,254
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VC and ALS reached out to me recently for models I was interested.
I sent them flying, but they still came back. They are desperate and probably have terrible YoY growth. |
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#28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Real Name: David
Location: Socal
Watch: Patek 3970
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Quote:
Those cars are are not listed on their website. Ferrari NA does not allow new cars to be listed online. They want maintain the appearance that demand exceeds supply. The games are no longer working like they used to. |
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#29 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2023
Real Name: David
Location: Socal
Watch: Patek 3970
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I would be offered 1 watch every 3-4 months last year. I've been offered a watch every week for the last 3 weeks (granted none were on my "list")
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#30 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: USA
Posts: 386
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Quote:
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