Pepsis on the way down >>>

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by timepiecegentleman

For this to happen your talking about the entire economy collapsing. Think about what would have to actually happen to bring the price of an SS sport model down to retail.

How many people would loose everything they own so you can save a few grand on a watch?

These watches may come down 30% but so will your house. Be careful what you wish for.


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SS Rolex was already a terribly inflated bubble though. It was pretty universally accepted that outside the panda Daytona the others were just a fad. This virus that crashed the market and is causing mass pandemonium completely and utterly blew up that proverbial bubble. Over the past few months it’s been deflating slowly anyways. Most of us knew to wait but these new unforeseen circumstances just sped everything up 10 fold

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by timepiecegentleman

Grey dealers are not buying these things at retail like so many people want to believe. Everyone who gets that call from the AD goes and picks up their Pepsi or Daytona then immediately hops online to see what they are selling for.

They call multiple Greys to see who will offer the highest. Greys bid within $100-300 of each other and the strongest offer wins.

If you think people are going to get online and see selling prices of 23-24k for a white Daytona and then accept an 18k offer from a Grey your mistaken. Generally the number is going to be within 500-1500 of actual market value.

That’s your avg margins we work on. Wholesale is even less. $100-$300 on average.

Those are very fair numbers to earn considering the safety we bring to the table when helping you sell.


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Appreciate your perspective on this since you're in the industry.

[outdoors_guy]

Economic downturns suck, period, and the luxury goods business is almost always hit in a downturn. I hope most Rolex dealers, whether grey or AD have recognized this and planned for this and are able to ride out the storm.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by timepiecegentleman

Private sellers and inexperienced dealers will be the ones that drop prices because they need cash.

It won’t affect much those because the majority are scared to buy also. As mentioned, there are a few for sale at the lowest prices we’ve seen but they still haven’t sold.

By the time the consumer feels like its ok to spend again prices will spike back up.

And yes, most of the smarter flippers are taking vacation and holding inventory. No sense in dumping stuff and bringing the market down.


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You have a very optimistic outlook because you’re holding stock. Plenty of SS (almost all) was selling under retail 4 years ago. You’re certain of the fact these astronomical prices are the new norm, and I (along with a ton of others) disagree with you that it was just waiting on the next downturn/recession which was due anyways after a decade long bull run.

We can agree to disagree but I think you’re mistaken to think it’s the new norm and those inflated prices would just hold forever. No luxury good in history of the market has ever done this, not sure why people think Rolex SS will be the exception and never go down. Will Rolex be fine? Absolutely. Will all the flippers and ‘investment purchasers’ get hosed? I think so 100%. It’s a simple statistical analysis, and it makes zero sense to claim some tangible incredibly non-essential luxury good is going to sell above MSRP forever. At the height of *every* market that crashed you have people always saying ‘it will never go down’....

Again, no disrespect, just using history/facts/numbers.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by HTX1990

H.Q. Milton is selling a Pepsi that has dropped in price daily for the last two days. I think by about $300 dollars a day.

The one that’s even now still at $16,650?

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve never paid over retail for any of my Rolex either. I totally respect and understand people getting frustrated that they can’t get the pieces they want however what doesn’t make sense is some of these people, only some of them, are actively wishing bad things to those that sold their watches for a profit. Happy to see them possibly get hurt financially. Like anyone of these guys if they got the Daytona they wanted, found out two weeks later that they just didn’t like it and then went to sell it they wouldn’t get every dime they could.

Haha this idea always cracks me up, i buy a Daytona at retail, later on decide the watch isn’t for me, or worse I fall on hard times. I decide to sell the watch, check the market value, and then decide, I’m going to ignore the actual value of the watch and sell it at retail, cause hey, that’s what I paid. Essentially donating $10k or more to the next buyer lol. I’m all for making a donation to charity, but the person buying a $12k watch isn’t the one in need of charity and there’s obviously no way of knowing they won’t turn around sell it for profit.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Abmatt2002

Chrono24 offers protection.

I know, but when buying from a dealer, you have a 14 days return period - that is not Chrono-policy that is EU law. You do not have that when buying from a private.

So if you receive the watch and you change your mind, you can return the watch hassle free when buying from a dealer. This is a huge deal, when dealing used watched because what might be considered as a "small dent" to some, might be huge to others.

If you buy from a private, you need to convince Chrono and the seller that the item was not as described etc.

[westcoastghost]

This is very obvious what it is. Chrono24 sellers list in their native currency, when you view it if you are in the US for example, it will be converted into USD. Look at what has happened to GBP vs the USD (lowest since 1985) and look at what has happened to the AUD vs. USD, same thing. USD is the world's currency, and they will flock to it in a worldwide recession. These people have not lowered their prices because of decreased demand....yet, it is simply converting to USD in a more favorable manner. Every one of the cheapest Pepsi sellers are in GB /Aus, pretty simple. The decreases in prices due to lack of demand will follow.

The next stage will be the continuing spiral of the equity markets, then you will see a credit crunch, followed by mass layoffs. This is all very simple, and the writing has been on the wall for over a year if you follow credit markets. This is honestly a best case scenario where the US is quarantined for 30 days, a vaccine is expedited and the curve flattens.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by westcoastghost

The next stage will be the continuing spiral of the equity markets, then you will see a credit crunch, followed by mass layoffs. This is all very simple, and the writing has been on the wall for over a year if you follow credit markets. This is honestly a best case scenario where the US is quarantined for 30 days, a vaccine is expedited and the curve flattens.

This.

A bunch of people keep thinking this is temporary and going to spike back within weeks possibly, but they’re failing to understand this isn’t just COVID.....COVID was actually just the catalyst to bring to light the lurking market downturn

[DGB]

To be honest I am not in a mood to buy a watch these days.
People sick, or even dying, confinement, economy collapsing, etc...
Even at MSRP I wouldn’t buy a watch.


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[SN13]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

There are 398 for sale with all but the ones you show at 16K+ to 19K. So no drop in price as far as I’m concerned.


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If there are 1000 for sale, the value is the highest that SELLS.

The $15.9k arent selling. So the 18k sure as hell wont either.

I can list my home for $1M but no one would claim my home is worth $1M unless it SELLS for that.

[Jcy90]

Gentleman we live in a free market economy. If you want to buy I suggest you wait a bit more and pull the trigger in a few weeks when the dust settles. Again the world is a cycle and in a few years the prices will go up when the economy gets better. And on and on.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by DGB

To be honest I am not in a mood to buy a watch these days.
People sick, or even dying, confinement, economy collapsing, etc...
Even at MSRP I wouldn’t buy a watch.


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I feel the same. I have family and friends on the front line in the UK risking everything. Two family members have already lost jobs. I’m in quarantine and just focusing on stashing money away.

For me a watch purchase should be celebratory. I wouldn’t want t look back in 5 or 10 years time looking at my watching thinking “oh yeah I bought that during the pandemic”. I may instead buy one to celebrate the finish of the pandemic instead.

[The Kermit]

Originally Posted by Dougiebaby

I agree.

You will also see greys take watches off their website listings (basically hiding them) for a while to make it seem like the watches are selling. Then they will re list same watch in future.

The buyer following website will think “oh no! they had a black Daytona and now it’s no longer listed (thinking it sold)”. Then a few weeks will pass and same Daytona will appear on their listings. Buyer thinks,” oh good, they got in another Daytona. I better buy it before it sells since I missed out on the last one.”

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I have also noticed this happening

[chrisbla003]

I have been offered £13950 for my 2020 Pepsi by a watch shop.
I don't think that the price is going down.

[mikkolopez]

Originally Posted by DGB

To be honest I am not in a mood to buy a watch these days.
People sick, or even dying, confinement, economy collapsing, etc...
Even at MSRP I wouldn’t buy a watch.


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I agree with this right now.


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[mykii]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

The one that’s even now still at $16,650?

Yeah, and frankly it says more about the financial situation of the seller rather than the market as a whole.

So many people in the "watch game" (i.e. small sellers and flippers, frankly even some of the bigger ones) are massively over-leveraged re: debt:asset value.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by westcoastghost

This is very obvious what it is. Chrono24 sellers list in their native currency, when you view it if you are in the US for example, it will be converted into USD. Look at what has happened to GBP vs the USD (lowest since 1985) and look at what has happened to the AUD vs. USD, same thing. USD is the world's currency, and they will flock to it in a worldwide recession. These people have not lowered their prices because of decreased demand....yet, it is simply converting to USD in a more favorable manner. Every one of the cheapest Pepsi sellers are in GB /Aus, pretty simple. The decreases in prices due to lack of demand will follow.

The next stage will be the continuing spiral of the equity markets, then you will see a credit crunch, followed by mass layoffs. This is all very simple, and the writing has been on the wall for over a year if you follow credit markets. This is honestly a best case scenario where the US is quarantined for 30 days, a vaccine is expedited and the curve flattens.

Pretty good analysis on the XE/FX effect here!

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by SN13

If there are 1000 for sale, the value is the highest that SELLS.

The $15.9k arent selling. So the 18k sure as hell wont either.

I can list my home for $1M but no one would claim my home is worth $1M unless it SELLS for that.

Bubbles are a game of musical chairs. Somebody has to be left standing when the music stops.

[piratepress]

I hit up my AD again for the possibility of getting a new Pepsi. Been on "The List" for two years since it debuted and keep getting bumped down by VIP customers. I'm hoping someone ahead of me passes on it and it lands in my lap!

[RolexRoll]

Just you wait. People really can’t fathom what’s going on right now because NONE of us have loved through the Great Depression. The flippers who were hoarding will be cleaned out and a race to the bottom is already happening behind closed door sales. An older Batman just sold for 10k on eBay. These were 14-15k a few weeks ago.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by stevers63

Bought at MSRP, I'm good.

I'm so happy for you.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by Jcy90

Gentleman we live in a free market economy. If you want to buy I suggest you wait a bit more and pull the trigger in a few weeks when the dust settles. Again the world is a cycle and in a few years the prices will go up when the economy gets better. And on and on.

Whoever can wait always has the upper-hand in a transaction.

[jakjuventus]

Don't underestimate the power of people who stay home for a month, nothing to do , reading every post about the watch. And once the situation is resolved, virus gone.

[Macnavara]

Originally Posted by watchmework

I feel bad for you, what a selfish thing to say...there are enough suffering right now for legit reasons, trying to stay healthy or put food on the tables for their family but you're only concerned with getting a luxury watch.

X 1.....time to put things in perspective and re evaluate what’s important.....and luxury goods it aint

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I’ve been waiting for this moment for awhile, patiently waiting. Hate that people are losing their jobs and this virus is devastating the community. These 2 things can be viewed as mutually exclusive, just bc I’m salivating at the mouth for the inevitable market crash and am happy about it doesn’t mean I’m also happy about the current reality of what’s going on in the real world.

So patience is definitely not an issue here, I’m waiting and sipping my tea for the BLRO to hit less than msrp

That's gonna be some ice tea before you see that.

[Xerxes77]

The list are full and with people who don’t like Pepsi they want to resell to make easy money.
This person’s will disappear and we will see how many real watch lover remain at the list.

[PepsiBezel]

I liked it better when hot SS Rolex were 2X MSRP and there was no COVID-19... would go back to those days in a heartbeat!

Stay safe and be well, everyone.

[Mrngrz46]

Again a post open by someone that couldn’t get the Pepsi and hopes that goes down...
Annoying same story with fox and grapes.

Again reseller bought it very high so it might go down a bit but not to the level you expect....

[Bozack90]

I always figured it was only a matter of time before either supply increased or demand diminished, if anything this is great news as it means more people who want them can get them without paying massive markups and for those of us who have them, if something happens can easily replace them.