Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

Rather good analysis, and I always tip my cap to a rational person. I would like to add that the tipping point that will break this market and lead to drastic price decreases will be reached when the collector starts to sell in order to raise cash. Think successful small business owner with 3-4 SS sport models but not a lot of savings and suddenly they're shut down and not generating income. They won't like it, but they'll pick a watch or two and do it. This will bring the average acquisition price down for the GM dealers and then they can start discounting the stock they already had, because they too will need to keep money flowing.

The first wave of job losses was pretty much all retail/service sector. Those people weren't buying Rolexes much anyway, but the job losses will start accelerating from here and bite people higher up the food chain. Many closed businesses have retained management in the hopes they can start back up soon, but how long can that last with no money coming in?

I'm fortunate to know only one person so far that has lost their job, which was in an office that did commercial real estate leasing. 3 of the 5 people managing all the leases and paperwork were let go yesterday, and this is in an area with relatively few cases of the virus. That story will be repeated many times in the coming weeks.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

I agree with this. What you have is a temporary (whether weeks or months, it's still temporary) event essentially freezing segments of the economy. While we are feeling this event much more in our everyday lives than the 2008 financial crisis, it is arguably less impactful long term. The jobs that are being frozen will be in extremely high demand once the crisis is over.

I think it is nice to think you have a quick recovery, but very few business models have a zero revenue assumption in their downside financial model. If you do not have liquidity, you have bankruptcy. Many small businesses will liquidate, try getting a debtor in possession financing in bankruptcy with zero ebitda. You might file a Chapter 11, but soon be a Chapter 7. How does a small retailer or restaurant restart, with past due rent and unpaid payables?

Go look at the daily deaths in Italy and Iran, which we thought were moderating, only to see new peaks yesterday.

[G.Montag]

Originally Posted by Michael V

Greys made their money by gouging on luxury items.

Isn’t that a bit of a contradiction in terms? “Price gouging” usually refers to raising prices on necessities (i.e. food, gas, hand sanitizer) at a time of crisis. I don’t think anyone would consider a $10,000 watch to be a necessity. Rolex itself “gouges” the consumer by selling their watches at a price that exceeds the cost of production by, I’m guessing, a factor of 10. They continue to “gouge” by charging $1,000 for service, though the actual cost of labour and materials is only a fraction of that. Luxury goods are not bought on a “value for money” principle.

Anyone who has studied economics will tell you that speculation is a natural phenomenon where demand is strong and supply is limited. It happens with real estate, antiquities, fine art, etc. I guess it’s also happening with Rolex, since demand is strong and Rolex is either unwilling or unable to increase supply, at least in the short run. It would be strange if a situation like that did NOT lead to speculation.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!

I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases.

No,wishful thinking.Grey prices will not drop on hot models like the ceramic Daytona,blro etc.

[fsprow]

When folks talk about insane prices, please remember a sale is the meeting between a willing seller and buyer. As it will always be. My belief that anyone, including me, who
think they can predict future luxury item prices, including Rolex, any better than they can forecast the stock market, is playing a losing game.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Michael T

I think it is nice to think you have a quick recovery, but very few business models have a zero revenue assumption in their downside financial model. If you do not have liquidity, you have bankruptcy. Many small businesses will liquidate, try getting a debtor in possession financing in bankruptcy with zero ebitda. You might file a Chapter 11, but soon be a Chapter 7. How does a small retailer or restaurant restart, with past due rent and unpaid payables?

What is to stop the small retailer or restaurants, or their former staff, from opening a new shop or restaurant? The empty shop will be available, and the former stock / equipment available at fire sale prices

Although I agree, they are unlikely to treat themselves to a new Rolex anytime soon, especially if new Rolex stock become available and FOMO recedes

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Anton911

No,wishful thinking.Grey prices will not drop on hot models like the ceramic Daytona,blro etc.

Daytona already has

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

What is to stop the small retailer or restaurants, or their former staff, from opening a new shop or restaurant? The empty shop will be available, and the former stock / equipment available at fire sale prices

Although I agree, they are unlikely to treat themselves to a new Rolex anytime soon, especially if new Rolex stock become available and FOMO recedes

I'm also very skeptical that "small business owners" make up more than a very minimal segment of the Rolex buying population to begin with.

[ngypheap]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

+1


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Michael V

Right... hoping the market swings back in " your " direction by someone elses demise is all part of the free market.

I hope the greys squirreled their profits away while the getting was good because the party of the century is over, possibly forever.

I am not talking about hoping the prices going back down. That is indeed part of a free market, if the demand suddenly isn’t there anymore. But this forum have been full of posts with how unethical and greedy and what not, for people to sell watches above MSRP, and at the same longing back to when these exact gray dealers sold watches with a 20% discount.

And also, unless a person or a business have treated you badly, it says a lot about a person to hope of someone’s else demise - it is absolutely possible to hope for prices to go back down, without anybody’s business going under. But then again - I remember one of your earlier posts, where you didn’t really mind some people suffering if it meant that you could get your Sky-Dweller quicker, so not really surprised.

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

I'm also very skeptical that "small business owners" make up more than a very minimal segment of the Rolex buying population to begin with.

Edit: I mis-interpreted your post.

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by Deppe

And also, unless a person or a business have treated you badly, it says a lot about a person to hope of someone’s else demise - it is absolutely possible to hope for prices to go back down, without anybody’s business going under. But then again - I remember one of your earlier posts, where you didn’t really mind some people suffering if it meant that you could get your Sky-Dweller quicker, so not really surprised.

The greys and flippers buying all the available stock of sky dwellers only had thoughts of gouging and taking advantage of me for something I should be able to easily get at msrp. Now their business model is blowing up in their face and I should feel bad for them ?? LOL. Hardly.

[Deppe]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Everything you’ve said is reasonable but you are basing it on one thing. You seem convinced that the economy is permanently tanked and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.

Which is my point exactly in the post that he is quoting - nobody knows if this is long term, and if it is, how long term.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

So, basically, Rolex owners are immune to global recessions and they haven’t been affected by the 30% drop in the markets. At least that’s good to know.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Hi everyone
I started a conversation a few days ago about the grey market flooded with ceramic daytonas and batmans.
The overwhelming response was that prices would drop drastically
My personal feeling is that nothing will change, mainly because brands like AP and PP, which are just as hard to get (maybe harder) for years, have also flooded the grey market, but their prices stay high.
My valid question is, do those brands always sell quickly (in the grey market)?

"Advertised" prices will remain similar. However, if someone asks 18k for a watch, I would bet a fair amount that they would let that watch go for 3-4k less and perhaps more than that in the coming weeks and months. Folks need to understand that the gray market cannot start reducing prices, that would create a chain reaction creating a massive spiral downward of prices resulting in massive losses for them. Thus, the advertised prices will continue to remain the same or maybe slightly lower, but the negotiation range will start to expand from perhaps a hundred or so to the several thousands and soon.


AP and PP are also not rare or hard to get, they suffer from the same dynamic that rolex does, a pinched supply. Something is not rare or hard to get if it can be found "somewhere", just because the AD's cant or wont sell them does not make them rare. Picasso pieces are rare, see they will never be made again, PP and AP are not rare, anyone can have them delivered to their door in 2 days time (well before corona).

[bks14sr]

Why assume the greys would just stop buying? Why wouldn’t they just average down by paying less? I’m not seeing how everything will become so readily available. Yes demand will decrease for a while, but I still think there will be a hierarchy as to whom gets offered certain models. Maybe I’m wrong though.

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

Thanks for all the input guys
My original question however has been completely ignored LOL

My question was: brands like AP and PP dont seem to be affected by oversupply in the grey market, is it because they all get sold quicker?
If not, then why?

[kareemthedream33]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

Daytona already has

No question. They are a solid 2-3k less than they were a month ago.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Thanks for all the input guys
My original question however has been completely ignored LOL

My question was: brands like AP and PP dont seem to be affected by oversupply in the grey market, is it because they all get sold quicker?
If not, then why?

Keep in mind how small Patek is, maybe only 50 to 60k annual units. PP has purposely constrained stainless watches as they think it devalues their core PM watches, where Rolex’s core is the stainless models. The price of PP 5167’s appears to have come down. I can not speak to their other models, my wife and I liquidated our Patek’s in the last year.

[Bosscheto]

I contributed to this discussion, but it feels lately beating a dead horse. Prices will go down, that's clear - but is our purchasing power will stay the same? Are you going to be able to walk into an AD 2 months from now and buy a Daytona knowing that you buy for yourself and just by wearing it, the price will go 20-30% bellow MSRP?

Because this is the norm for most luxury items, they do not appreciate in value. So you go and buy a BMW or you lease for facilitating even more the discussion. You know exactly how much it depreciates in 3 or 4 years, and then you move on.

The real question now is - if you know, that your watch will not go in value, and you can buy anything on MSRP from your AD - what are you going to buy for your own pleasure?

[BroncoOne]

Rolex releases an all blue Smurf Submariner in steel. Let the triple MSRP price games begin!
Sorry.

Overall, decide what watch you really want to wear, what price you are comfortable paying, and focus on that and enjoy the watch if you get it.

If you aren't a speculator, who cares?

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by mstauqir

I think grey sellers are hoping against hope here. I don’t want them to go down in flames. But nothing like a recession to correct the course.

Want to know common denominator among these opposing comments? It’s all by grey sellers “pledge members”. That being said, I have sold watches here as well. But got to get real here folks!

BLRO for sale from legitsellers on TRF:

7/9/18: $20250 (“unworn”)
Today: $16595 (“BNIB”)

Who was saying prices haven’t dropped?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Frits1980]

This is not 2008/2009. Us economy is solid. Economy/stocks/Rolex Prices will come down the coming weeks/months but will recover with full force once people can be treated and stop dying. The smartest people in the world are working on this together, corona virus has no chance:)

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by Frits1980

This is not 2008/2009. Us economy is solid. Economy/stocks/Rolex Prices will come down the coming weeks/months but will recover with full force especialy once people can be treated and stop dying. The smartest people in the world are working on this together, corona virus has no chance:)

Love your optimism I hope you are right, and I am wrong, would be better for both of us :)

[Yess]

One thing I've never understood about the new with stickers grey market... There has to be certain ADs making a kick back on the watch they sell at MSRP. So in essence the AD is making money twice.

All the seemingly "honest" ADs I've spoken with have always wanted more stock to sell to legit customers. They try and not sell to those simply flipping. And they actually test you out a bit to see your intent. It seems there must be a few selling to grey dealers and getting an old fashioned envelop with cash at the end of the month?

[SUPERDOC]

The "instant Gratification" mindset is quite staggering ...

it's been what, two weeks?

Many still in the 'Denial' stage of grief - of course very few people are desperate to sell after 2 weeks... that's an average vacation .

what happens after 4 weeks?
6 weeks?
What happens after Denial, and Anger... Bargaining

Those stating that the prices have not come down have an unrealistic expectation to how long it takes for something to evolve... the virus itself may take 14 days to incubate... why would anyone expect the sky to be falling right now?

I think that the prices are inevitably going to come down to MSRP - or below..

It is impossible for them to sustain, and this was something we were saying before a global pandemic crippled world economies...

Demand will go down - partly because of lost disposable income, and partly because some watch buyers will be dead, and possibly a big part is that the casual watch buyer, even with money in his pocket, may have a different set of priorities for the next year or so until amnesia sets in... it will be no fun to show off your Rolex to people who have lost their jobs/houses/loved ones...

There are very few things in this world that are absolute guarantees... but the lack of sustainability in asking $18k for a $9k watch is one of them... but I suppose there were guys who thought tulips and beanie babies were a safe investment as well...

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

The "instant Gratification" mindset is quite staggering ...

it's been what, two weeks?

Many still in the 'Denial' stage of grief - of course very few people are desperate to sell after 2 weeks... that's an average vacation .

what happens after 4 weeks?
6 weeks?
What happens after Denial, and Anger... Bargaining

Those stating that the prices have not come down have an unrealistic expectation to how long it takes for something to evolve... the virus itself may take 14 days to incubate... why would anyone expect the sky to be falling right now?

I think that the prices are inevitably going to come down to MSRP - or below..

It is impossible for them to sustain, and this was something we were saying before a global pandemic crippled world economies...

Demand will go down - partly because of lost disposable income, and partly because some watch buyers will be dead, and possibly a big part is that the casual watch buyer, even with money in his pocket, may have a different set of priorities for the next year or so until amnesia sets in... it will be no fun to show off your Rolex to people who have lost their jobs/houses/loved ones...

There are very few things in this world that are absolute guarantees... but the lack of sustainability in asking $18k for a $9k watch is one of them... but I suppose there were guys who thought tulips and beanie babies were a safe investment as well...

You must be the life of the party.

An expert at “pep talks”

[DayTona78]

Excellent write up. Very well put.

Originally Posted by Cool watch

Before I provide a rebuttal.
To my fellow members, take my opinion if you want it and ignore it if you don't.
Not here to debate or convince anyone that I'm right and you're wrong...

Without further ado,


This isn't rocket science.

Members here are simply using deduction with the facts in front of them to come to a conclusion of GM prices crashing.

1. There has been an overwhelming number of Hulk & Pepsi "incomings" in the the last week.
Dare I say more in the last week alone than the last year altogether.
Even w/ a "lockdown", A.D.'s are still working the phones trying to move pieces.

2. Prices on ebay, chrono24, and forum marketplaces are going down along with the frequency of items being sold.

3. The millions of people filing for unemployment and other millions not going to work for god knows how long, they're not spending money on anything but the necessities for the next 6+ months, which is how long that it will take them to get out of 2+ months of back rent and credit card bills.
(remember, HALF the families in this country can't afford a $500 emergency)
This means that the actual customer who is buying a Rolex (many of them being small business owners) will need to wait for that clientele to return and spend money. Thus, drying up demand for a Rolex.

4. Once GM dealers tell AD's that they can't buy anymore b/c of stagnant inventory, do you really think the AD is just going to sit on their inventory while Rolex and other brands force inventory down their throats?
Of course not...
The A.D. will begin calling clients.
Once that pool dries up, the watches will end up on the display floor.
Once it stays on the floor for a certain period, the discounts start coming in.

5. With the availability at the A.D., G.M. will have to be competitive and thus the only thing they can offer is a cheaper price than the A.D.

At the end of the day, this alliance between the GM and AD was a house of cards.
A.D.'s mostly promised to never sell hot models to consumers so that the GM could flourish and eat up all slow moving inventory they needed to send to the GM in the SS Rolex and slower model bundle. (there's a reason why the entire display case is empty at some of these A.D.'s, where even all women's models are sold out).

BTW, I wish no ill will on any GM dealers.
I'm sure some of them are just fine and were never looking to gauge consumers and probably never wen't crazy purchasing up volatile inventory that could sink them. Those GM dealers will come out just fine.

It's the hoarders that will take a bath, along with the casual consumer that bought one or two to flip.
The flipper will have the hardest time breaking even.
GM is will decline or offer below MSRP to the flipper as a trade in value.
Private party selling to the consumer will be the same. He will have to sell @ MSRP or lower and eat any paypal, listing, and shipping fees.
Also, with the quality of super fakes out there, along with all the people just on forums being scammed, I know I would never purchase from a private party.



Most importantly, just remember that trends come and go folks.
Brands can even have a cycles of hot & cold.
There was a time that Piaget was worn by the "influencers" in a certain era but when was the last time you saw someone wearing Piaget out in the wild?
Do people remember Mossimo, starter, champion?
During the 90's, those brands were being sold in the mall.
Then ended up on the racks at wal-mart and target.
Recently some have returned back to the mall and disappeared again.
I bring this point up to say that sometimes trends/brands quickly lose the spotlight after periods of societal struggle.
A new trend emerges and our society moves on for a fresh start.

[sousukef]

Originally Posted by Anton911

The millions filing for unemployment etc are not the typical Rolex buyers,end of!
I know many people who are not affected by what is going on in the world financially.
Prices are not dropping on EBay.What EBay are you looking at?Daytona,blro’s,hulks etc are the same prices.i have just sold a hulk for 12k and there were many people willing to buy.

That’s a silly assumption that there isn’t a percentage of rolex owners/buyers part of the millions filing for unemployment. You’re sharing anecdotal feedback without any concrete evidence. Heres some anecdotal feedback that counters your above statement: Two of my friends and their spouses work in the service/hospitality industry and they own 5+ rolexes each. Their industry is completely shutdown and they’ve been laid off for two weeks. Guess what they are not buying now?